Don’t Blame Ukraine for Munitions Shortages

By John R. Puri

Tuesday, August 11, 2026

 

Jim Geraghty quotes President Trump, who claims that the depleted munitions stockpiles in the news are because of past transfers to Ukraine:

 

By the way, they talk about munitions and we’re fine with munitions. You know, we’re having to do with, we’re fine. But the reason it would be lower and we’re building them like crazy, but the reason it’s low, is because [Biden] gave $300 billion worth to Ukraine.

 

Trump is mistaken. First, we did not give $300 billion in munitions to Ukraine. The United States has approved $195 billion in total aid to Ukraine since the war began. Of that amount, around $70 billion was in security assistance rather than financial assistance. Of that, only $33.3 billion was in drawdowns of existing stockpiles — of both munitions and larger weapons. (The remainder was used for purchases of newly produced systems earmarked for Ukraine.) Concurrent appropriations to replenish those stocks exceeded the value of the drawdowns.

 

Beyond the money to hard supply figures, CSIS — the think tank that has been crunching the numbers on munitions — reports that transfers to Ukraine pale in comparison to the Iran war in their impact on key munitions supplies. For one, “The vast majority of items provided to Ukraine relate to ground combat.” Unlike the surface-targeting and air-defense munitions where concern is greatest, “These systems have not played a major role in the war against Iran, and their inventories would be only a minor factor in a war against China.”

 

There is one relevant crossover: Surface-to-air Patriot interceptors were transferred to Ukraine and would be critically needed in a war with China to defend U.S. forces and bases from aerial attacks. Over four years of brutal Russian missile assaults, the military transferred 600 Patriot interceptors to Ukraine. In just five months of war with Iran, the United States itself used an estimated 2,300 interceptors, leaving the current stockpile at approximately 800.

 

Patriots are one of seven depleted munitions tracked by CSIS that may be needed in the Pacific. None of the other six were ever transferred to Ukraine. Rather, all of their expenditure was from the Iran war or other U.S. engagements against Iranian proxies since 2023.

 

Of course, frighteningly low munitions supplies limit what can be transferred to Ukraine now. That is why virtually all of the weapons now arriving are newly produced, after being ordered specifically for the country’s defenses. But if we are searching for blame, the Iran war — not past aid to Ukraine — is the proximate cause of scarce munitions. The truest culprit, however, is the Pentagon’s failure, decades in the making, to ensure sufficient stockpiles and production capacity for this new age of great power conflict.