By Seth Mandel
Wednesday, August 12, 2026
Vladimir Putin has never shied away from assassinating
Russian critics who have fled to the West. But recent events suggest Moscow is
expanding its violation of Western sovereignty in new and volatile ways, and
the revelations should change how we view everything from the war in Ukraine to
the Middle East conflict to the street protests here at home.
Last week, a drone carrying explosive material was discovered
near a Ukrainian plane at an airport in eastern Germany. A police bomb squad
disarmed it. A second drone was found flying near the airport. It flew right
into a landing cargo plane.
The term “drone” has a hobbyist’s ring to it, and for a
long time the main reason to use a drone was reconnaissance and observation.
But a drone with explosives is not a toy plane or a motorized kite. It is a
bomb. A Russian bomb was planted at a German airport near a Ukrainian jet. If
the implications are true, then that would mean Russia has taken its active war
against Ukraine into German territory and planted a bomb in a NATO country.
It’s an escalation of an existing strategy. Russia is
poking and prodding at NATO’s defenses. “Hybrid attacks are taking place every
day in NATO countries,” German Gen. Carsten Breuer told
the Wall Street Journal. “Russia is testing us and looking at how we
respond.” Moscow is also, he said, “shifting its economy and military to
prepare for a wider conflict with the West.”
It’s not just Russia. I thought the airport drone was the
most important geopolitical story of the past week until I read this
one:
“Royal Navy spy drones used by Britain’s elite special
forces secretly sent data to China, The Telegraph can reveal.
“The cameras on the K3 Scout surveillance drones had
components made in China which were transmitting information to a device in the
country.
“The Royal Marines have been using the £12m fleet since
March and the Ministry of Defence (MoD) was forced to remove all internet
connectivity from the cameras after discovering the breach.”
So China’s been watching British Special Forces for five
months now. That sounds bad enough, but the full picture is probably worse,
though we can’t know for sure. After all, how likely is it that this is the
only case in which Chinese parts were sending data back home?
Testing the West’s defenses this way is typical behavior
from the wider China-led bloc. The Iranians, for example, use proxies to prod
the good guys and look for weaknesses.
Leading up to the October 7, 2023, invasion of Israel,
the Palestinian government in Gaza wanted to see what Israel’s “smart and
lethal” border security system, made up of a high-tech detection system around
the border fence, was really made of. The Jerusalem Post described
the findings of an Israeli report on the failures: “According to the report,
Hamas carried out several test operations on the fence weeks before October 7,
using motorcycles, small bridges, and explosives. One key test, conducted one
week prior, involved blowing up a structural beam critical to the fence’s
integrity. It succeeded. The report states this activity did not trigger an IDF
response.”
And that’s only the border system. Analysts say that many
of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s rocket attacks during that time were
meant to test Israel’s missile defense but also to see how the IDF responded:
who went where, which bases responded to alarms, about how many soldiers were
regularly at these bases, etc. It’s common sense when you think about it—but
apparently not enough higher-ups in the Israeli security sector were thinking
about it.
Iran directly tested Israel’s defenses as well. Some of
its missile salvos over the past few years were intended to see what Israel’s
shield capacity looked like and what it would take to overwhelm defenses with a
swarm of drones and missiles. Iran is also now testing Israel via Hezbollah,
which has been using fiber-optic drones against Israeli targets. Such drones
are a key component of Russia’s war on Ukraine, and both China and Iran are
paying close attention to each innovation in military hardware.
Finally, the propaganda campaigns that fuel anti-Western
activism are a key part of this as well. These campaigns are intended to
isolate members of the alliance of democracies to prevent them from sharing
military knowhow and intelligence the way the China-Russia-Iran axis is. It’s
why pro-China activists and political figures argue against arming Ukraine.
It’s also why anti-Israel activists want to make the Jewish state radioactive:
to hamstring countries like Germany from obtaining the best defenses against
Russian attacks.
The United States is the leader of the alliance that
stands in the way of a new authoritarian hegemony over the global economy. We
should be clear-eyed about the motives of those seeking to drive a wedge
between us and our allies.
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