By Nick Catoggio
Friday, August 14, 2026
Yesterday the president ordered the Navy to ditch the
electromagnetic catapult system it uses to propel fighter jets off the decks of
aircraft carriers. America is returning to the good ol’ days of steam
catapults, he declared.
Experts were baffled. “Replacing the electromagnetic
catapults with steam will be a complex endeavor that will likely cost billions
of dollars,” the Wall Street Journal noted. The old system used more
mechanical parts and required more money and technicians to maintain; modern
U.S. carriers will need to be retrofitted with new (meaning: old)
infrastructure to support them.
Installation of an electromagnetic system is already
nearly half-finished on a supercarrier that’s under construction in Virginia.
That will now need to be reworked to accommodate the executive order at
“significant cost, schedule, and integration risk,” the contractor told the
paper.
What gives?
Dispatch contributor Jesse
Singal had a theory. “This means either some random aide thinks the old
system is cool, and told Trump about it at a moment when [the president] was
particularly lucid, or Trump has some sort of financial stake in a
steam-catapult company, but it’s 99.9 percent one or the other.”
I would have put the odds slightly lower, at around 90
percent. In a movement as
besotted with nostalgia as Trumpism, there’s always a chance that the
president prefers doing something the old way simply because that’s how it used
to be done. American greatness was at its zenith in his youth, and in his youth
carriers used steam. QED.
But certainly, if you had to bet, you’d bet on Singal
being right. And he is right, it appears. Per the Wall Street Journal,
“Trump is making good on a promise he made almost 10 years ago to go back to
the steam system after hearing a sailor praise it while visiting a ship during
his first term.” Some random person told him steam catapults were cool, and the
alleged coolness of steam catapults became an idée fixe.
Plant a seed in Donald Trump’s head and you never know what poisonous fruit might grow.
As it happens, the steam-catapult idiocy isn’t the only
fiasco in the news this week that involves the world’s greatest military.
Fiascos.
The most sordid has to do with conditions aboard the USS
Abraham Lincoln, where morale has allegedly deteriorated after nine months
at sea. “Family members and sailors say the roughly 5,000 service members
aboard Lincoln have endured food and water shortages, disrupted mail
service, and long workdays with little time off,” Stars and Stripes reported. Some crew members are
said to have complained of suicidal thoughts. More than one has tried to go overboard.
A different kind of fiasco that came to light recently
took place earlier this year in Germany. In April and May, U.S. infantry from
Fort Hood held military exercises against a Ukrainian drone unit. Despite the
Pentagon having had many months to learn from Russia’s battlefield misery and
adapt its tactics accordingly, the Americans were defeated “easily.” The armored vehicles
they used were spotted and “killed” so quickly, in fact, that U.S. units had to
“re-spawn” simply to keep the exercise going, one official told the Wall
Street Journal.
The third fiasco has to do with Iran. Everyone knows that
America has burned
through an outsized share of its missile stockpile during the war, but only
lately has it become clear how outsized it is. Some experts estimated that half the supply of high-tech THAAD interceptors was gone;
the truth, according to sources who spoke to CNN, is more like 80 percent. (Half of all Patriot missiles
have been spent as well.) Amid the predictable finger-pointing and scapegoating at the top, the Pentagon
has issued an urgent memo to defense contractors begging them to start cranking out weapons “significantly faster.”
Joint Chiefs chairman Dan Caine is reportedly so spooked
that he’s urged Trump to find an off-ramp from the war before our
“dangerously low” remaining supply of munitions runs out. The president is now
resigned to “low-keying it” in Iran, opting for economic pressure over
military escalation because escalating might be too perilous for … us.
There’s a fourth, less visible but momentously important,
fiasco in motion. Even before the president returned to office, the United
States passed the grim milestone of spending more on debt servicing than it does on defense. But under
Trump, the problem has worsened considerably: In an age of high interest rates,
America nonetheless borrowed more in the first 10 months of this fiscal year than it did in
all of fiscal year 2025. Last month’s budget deficit was the steepest since March 2021, putting us on track for an
annual deficit of no less than $2 trillion.
As more of our money goes toward servicing our debt, less
of our money will necessarily go toward national defense. That would be bad
enough if we weren’t spending big bucks on certain foolish
and wasteful vanity projects, but we are. The president doesn’t
seem to care a whit.
Amid all of that, the Trump administration now appears doomed to a strategic defeat in Iran. America’s Gulf allies
are already coming to terms with Iranian ownership of the Strait of Hormuz,
preferring to pay a “fee” to their Shiite enemies so that tankers can safely
transit the strait than suffer through another pointless U.S. escalation. If
the Pentagon can no longer defend Saudi oil fields from Iranian retaliation due
to munitions shortages, the Saudis are better off letting themselves be extorted. That’s the state of confidence in America
overseas now.
All in all, there’s a solid case to be made that this
presidency will end with U.S. military power at its weakest point since the
Carter years. And we’re still not even halfway through it: Trump being Trump,
there’s a decent chance that he’ll treat the Pentagon’s overextension as an
excuse to live out his dream of abandoning NATO before he leaves office. Having
done major damage to American prestige by behaving too hawkishly in the first
19 months of his term, he’s fully capable of doing major damage by behaving too
dovishly over the remaining 29.
All of this has to matter politically, no?
Traditional advantages.
Since Vietnam, Republicans have been the party of
strength abroad. The Cold War, the Gulf War, the war on terror, now the war
with Iran: The GOP is forever eager to throw roundhouses at foreign villains
while the hippie Democratic base cries, “There has to be a better way!” If
you’re a hawk who believes in hard-power projection, choosing between blue and
red has been a no-brainer since 1980.
Will that still be true in 2028, though? How many more
military-related fiascos will it take from the Trump administration before the
traditional Republican advantage on national security among voters ends up as
depleted as the Pentagon’s missile stockpile?
That’s a trick question, actually. According to some
polls, that advantage is already gone.
As noted elsewhere by CNN reporter Aaron Blake, two recent surveys found the parties
statistically tied on questions about “strength.” A Reuters poll saw Democrats ahead, 37–36, when it asked
which side will do a better job handling “war, foreign conflicts, and
terrorism.” That’s a 12-point swing away from Republicans since Trump was
reelected in late 2024.
A Fox News poll had the GOP still ahead on national security
but by a narrow margin of 50–48, within the margin of error. That too reflects
a 12-point turnaround dating back to before the Iran war.
Not everyone who’s moving from right to left on questions
related to national security is a disappointed hawk, needless to say. Some are
swing voters who bought Trump’s hype in 2024 about “ending endless wars” and
now feel bait-and-switched. Others are Tuckerite
isolationists who dream of making the world safe for postliberalism. But
there are surely people who favored the president in 2024 because they believed
even a war-skeptical Republican would project military power more competently
and responsibly than the liberal weenie alternative—and have learned otherwise
the hard way.
Those hawkish voters now face having to watch the tough
guy they supported forced to acquiesce in Iranian control of Hormuz because
he’s maneuvered himself into having no other option. Their humiliation will be
ineffable. How loyal will they remain to a party whose biggest foreign policy
accomplishment over these four years is likely to be vastly increasing Iran’s
regional prestige?
What’s the pitch to them post-Iran to keep loyally
turning out for a party led by J.D. Vance?
Before you answer, bear in mind that the current war
might not be the worst strategic defeat America suffers before Trump
leaves office. The president’s ineptitude and the Pentagon’s munitions
shortfall are bound to influence China’s calculations about Taiwan and Russia’s
about Europe. Trump has never been likely to intervene to defend U.S. allies in
either scenario, but between the current strain on the military and the heat
he’s taken from “America First-ers” for being too bellicose, he’s really
unlikely to intervene now.
In fact, having just watched China
flex its muscle over oil markets, he might not even consider doing so. A
man who’s afraid of being remembered as Herbert Hoover won’t risk challenging an enemy who can
plausibly threaten him with a global recession simply by boosting its oil
consumption.
If the president’s bluff is called and he declines to
fight, what’s left for right-wing hawks then? What does American paralysis in
years three and four of Trump 2.0 do to perceptions of “the party of strength”?
I can understand feeling skeptical that the GOP might
lose its traditional advantage on national security, which has been a fact of
political life for the better part of 50 years. It’s unthinkable! But as it
turns out, it’s not the only issue right now on which the party is seeing a
longtime advantage evaporate.
As Blake notes, perceptions of Republican economic
stewardship have also collapsed under the weight of tariffs and gas-price hikes
driven by the war. The same Fox News poll that I mentioned earlier has Democrats ahead
54–45 on which side would better handle the economy, giving the left its biggest lead since 2006. Reuters has the margin at a more modest 37–36, but not
since May 2017 had Republicans trailed on the question (which was asked
slightly differently at the time). Unthinkable! Yet here we are.
Come 2028, if the GOP is no longer the party of
“strength” and no longer the party of prosperity, what will it be the
party of, exactly?
The paths ahead.
My cynical answer is that it’ll become the
National Front. Eighty percent of its agenda will be about expelling
swarthy undesirables, 10 percent will be about learning to love Russia and
China, and the rest will involve snorting various progressive and protectionist
economic policies. Stop fighting illiberals abroad and start fighting
liberals within. The J.D. Vance program, in other words. Right-wing hawks
will wander off into the wilderness.
My more cynical answer is that it’ll become the National
Front but will still command the votes of most traditional Republicans,
including hawks, because hyperpartisanship always trumps hard experience. No
matter how humiliating the rest of the president’s term becomes militarily or
economically, right-wingers will anxiously reassure themselves that any
Democrat would be worse. Better a belligerent dope who makes decisions about
aircraft carrier technology based on word of mouth than a tax-and-spend technocrat
beholden to hippies.
“The National Front plus a big group of willfully
delusional conservatives” is a pretty good description of the Republican
coalition right now, no? Why wouldn’t it continue?
Democrats will make it easy in some ways for the GOP. For
instance, the left is vastly less likely to support war with Iran than the
Trump-led GOP is and, with the notable exceptions of Ukraine and NATO, isn’t meaningfully more likely to favor other foreign
interventions. If you’re a Mark Levin-style conservative hawk who thinks the
big problem with the current conflict is that we haven’t dropped enough bombs,
why would you think President Mark Kelly will be more likely to scratch your
itch than President Vance would?
The left’s hard tilt against Israel is another huge red
flag for hawks. Even if the broader right comes to see the Iran war as a
mistake and proof of the president’s incompetence, most Republicans outside the
“young chud” Tucker Carlson niche will view it as having been directionally
correct on clash-of-civilizations grounds: Trump understood the Muslim
threat. A Democratic Party that’s now pro-Palestinian writ large, pro-Hamas
out on its fringe, and captivated by politicians named Zohran Mamdani and Abdul
El-Sayed is not an obvious home for those Republicans.
Then again, no one knows how
big the Tucker Carlson niche might get by 2028. If the GOP turns into a
party in which terms like “goyslop”
become common parlance, in which the supposed “real” clash of civilizations is
with Israel specifically and global Jewry more generally, one would hope
Republican hawks would take that as their cue to pull up stakes and declare
independence. Or even—gasp—consider supporting a Democrat like Kelly who seems
not obviously crazy and not very interested in the various sinister tentacles
of the Jewish octopus.
Another way of saying all that is that Trump’s various
military fiascos, Iran most prominently, might be just the thing needed to
accelerate horseshoe-ification. “The party of strength” in the future
might be an uneasy
coalition of left- and right-leaning liberals who lean toward projecting
America military power against illiberal regimes—when the goals are feasible
and the people giving orders are capable, neither of which is true in the
present war.
Whereas the opposition party of the future might be a
similarly uneasy coalition of left- and right-leaning illiberals who lean
against American military imperialism, especially when practiced against
illiberal regimes and especially especially against illiberal regimes
that are waging war on Israel. That octopus isn’t going to slay itself, you
know.
If you had to bet on political trends, though, you’d
always bet on inertia, particularly in an age of turbo-charged tribalism.
“Strength” has been part of the right’s tribal identity since the Reagan era;
even Trump, who won two elections by questioning GOP-led wars, reinforced that
identity with boorish alpha-male bravado and a lust for dominance. Asking
Republicans to relinquish it, even after the Iran fiasco, is asking a lot.
And asking Democrats, whose base led the opposition to
Vietnam, Iraq, and Iran, and whose anti-American socialist wing is ascendant,
to claim it is asking just as much.
So we will likely forge on into 2028 with both parties in
their familiar roles, with Republican candidates halfheartedly promising
strength and Democratic candidates half-heartedly demanding restraint. No one
on either side will feel very convinced by the posturing, but longtime
partisans will relish the reassurance that their tribal identity is, more or
less, still what it’s always been. The president isn’t the only American
besotted by nostalgia.