Sunday, April 12, 2026

What Would It Have Cost For Israel To Maintain Its Popularity?

By Seth Mandel

Friday, April 10, 2026

 

There isn’t much question that Israel is facing an unusually tough challenge to its image in America. The question, then, is twofold: What should Israel do about it short of committing national suicide? And how much of this was inevitable?

 

These are not easy questions, and they will no doubt be the subject of much debate in the near term. But it’s worth noting how much October 7 complicates the picture.

 

Folks online are pointing to this latest Pew survey as a marker of Israel’s public-relations struggles in the U.S. And they are not wrong that it shows what they say it shows. But I found the dates listed in the survey to be interesting.

 

In 2022, according to Pew, Israel was viewed favorably by 55 percent of the country and unfavorably by 42 percent. Four years later, those numbers are 37 percent and 60 percent respectively. Israel is underwater. In 2025, the numbers were in the middle: 45 percent and 53 percent. The trend was clear.

 

Curious as to where 2023 sat in all this, however, I looked at Gallup’s running survey which included that year rather than jumping from 2022 to 2025.

 

Gallup polls a different question, asking respondents whether their sympathies lie with Israel or the Palestinians. Still, with that in mind, Gallup shows a similar trend—but widening the lens, we see Israel’s last peak at 60 percent in 2020, six years ago and three years before October 7.

 

The trend is downhill from there. In 2023, it was 54 percent, just slightly lower than it was in 2022. In 2024, it dropped three points to 51. If the surveys are taken the same time each year, then it was still early in 2024 and just months after October 7. Where was the so-called sympathy boost for Israel? The Palestinians carried out the most deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust, using methods no less barbarous than the Nazis themselves on a wide scale, and took over 200 hostages—including a baby whom Hamas would kill with their bare hands and then mutilate the corpse.

 

So: What could Israel have done at this moment to prevent its continuing fall in U.S. public opinion? We have our answer: not hit back.

 

Well, sure, some people say, Israel could have carried out airstrikes without a ground invasion. But first of all, that wouldn’t have worked either, since the accusations of “genocide” began while Israel was still trying to capture or expel the remnants of the invading Palestinian forces. Israel carries out airstrikes in Lebanon and gets accused of genocide there, too. The accusation is held at the ready and fired at Israel the second it does something in response.

 

Second, the idea that Israel shouldn’t go in after the hostages is genuinely insane, not to mention the fact that Israel absolutely had to strike back hard and that Western leaders agreed from the outset that taking out Hamas was a legitimate goal.

 

But let’s go back to the hostages. Americans were among those taken by Hamas, and the American public was punishing Israel for going in to find them?

 

Now, it’s true that along the way, various media figures falsely reported claims of a famine in Gaza, of intentional starvation, of genocide, and whatever else they could think of. There’s no question this hurt Israel’s standing, but since Israel didn’t do those things, it is necessarily limited in what it could have done to prevent people lying about it.

 

Either way, the underlying point seems to be clear here: Israel could have stopped or slowed its popularity slide in the U.S. had it been willing to let Iran and its proxies get away with Nazi levels of violence against Jews.

 

Are there things Israel can do at the margins to improve its public image? Absolutely, and those will be enumerated and debated as this discussion continues. But I can’t shake the feeling that marginal effects have been the only ones on the table outside of Israel doing something suicidal.

Canada’s Dangerous Obsession with Donald Trump

By Stephen R. Nagy

Sunday, April 12, 2026

 

There is a comfortable orthodoxy settling over editorial boards, university seminars, and policy conferences from Ottawa to Brussels. It goes something like this: Donald Trump broke the international order, the United States is an unreliable partner, and the remedy is diversification — toward China, toward the BRICS bloc of emerging economies (including players like Brazil, Russia, and India), toward anyone who is not Washington. This narrative is not merely incomplete, it is dangerously wrong, and the countries indulging in it are squandering what little time they have to prepare for a world that is about to change in ways that have nothing to do with who occupies the Oval Office.

 

Let’s begin with the diversification fantasy. Canada in particular has spent considerable political energy signaling that it can meaningfully reduce its economic dependence on the United States. The arithmetic tells a different story. Roughly 75 percent of Canadian exports flow south. The infrastructure — pipelines, rail corridors, and supply chains — is integrated on a north-south axis that took the better part of a century to build. As Michael Hart has argued, the Canadian-American economic relationship is not a policy choice; it is a geographic and structural reality. Talking about diversification may win applause at Davos panels, but it does not build liquified natural gas (LNG) terminals, nor conjure new consumer markets out of thin air.

 

The second delusion is that China represents a viable alternative anchor for liberal democracies. But Beijing’s long-term strategy is now well-documented. The Belt and Road Initiative, the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, the Global Civilization Initiative, and the expanding architecture of BRICS are not charitable enterprises. They are institutional instruments designed to construct a parallel international order — one in which sovereignty is defined as regime security, human rights are culturally relative, and the rule of law is subordinate to the rule of party. Elizabeth Economy has argued persuasively that Xi Jinping’s China is not joining the existing order; it’s seeking to revise it from within and, where necessary, replace it from without. Canada, the European Union, and the broader constellation of democracies benefit enormously from the institutional architecture that emerged after 1945 — open trade adjudication, treaty-based security, and freedom of navigation. To flirt with Beijing as a counterweight to Washington is to saw off the branch on which one is sitting.

 

Third, and perhaps most corrosive, is the notion that Trump and the United States are the root cause of dysfunction in the international system and at home. China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have been working to revamp and replace the international system since the end of the Cold War. Rather than being an instigator of the dysfunction, the U.S. has defended the international order.

 

Blaming the U.S. for socio-economic problems at home is an exercise in scapegoating dressed up as analysis. Canada’s productivity crisis did not begin in 2017. The European Union’s demographic stagnation, regulatory sclerosis, and energy vulnerability were not created in Mar-a-Lago. Britain’s post-Brexit turbulence was a sovereign British decision. The high-quality data — from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the IMF, the Bank for International Settlements — consistently points to domestic governance failures as the primary drivers of sluggish growth, housing unaffordability, and declining competitiveness across the Western world. As Fareed Zakaria notes in Foreign Affairs, the crisis of liberal democracy is largely self-inflicted, a product of decades of deferred structural reform and political systems that reward short-term consumption over long-term investment. Blaming America is easy. Reforming pension systems, rationalizing health-care spending, and liberalizing planning regimes are all hard. Democracies are choosing the easy path, and it leads nowhere useful.

 

There is also an uncomfortable illiberal undercurrent in fashionable anti-Americanism that deserves scrutiny. The United States, for all its polarization and dysfunction, remains the society in which citizens can write, speak, protest, and publish virtually without restraint. Can the same be said of the alternatives on offer? Can it be said of Beijing, where a single social media post can result in detention? Of Moscow, where independent journalism is functionally extinct? The reflex to equate American imperfection with villainy betrays a moral confusion that would be laughable if its consequences were not so serious.

 

Now consider what is actually coming. Over the next five to ten years, the world will be entering a period of simultaneous leadership transitions in the four most consequential states outside Europe, and almost no one in the policy establishment is adequately preparing for it.

 

The United States will eventually move beyond Trump. But what will replace MAGA? The movement has restructured the Republican Party’s coalition around economic nationalism, skepticism of alliance commitments, and a transactional view of trade. That ideological infrastructure will not vanish with one man. As Walter Russell Mead has written, Jacksonian nationalism is not an aberration in American political culture, but a deep current. Allies who are simply waiting for Trump to leave are waiting for a restoration that is unlikely to arrive in the form they imagine.

 

China faces an even more consequential transition. Xi Jinping has systematically eliminated rivals, abolished term limits, and concentrated power to a degree unseen since Mao. History suggests — and scholars like Jude Blanchette have detailed — that when a paramount leader of Xi’s type exits the scene, China turns inward. Succession struggles consume political oxygen. Factional competition paralyzes decision-making. The interregnum enduring bipolarity could last years. How the world manages a distracted, unstable, nuclear-armed China with the world’s second-largest economy is a question of the first order. It is receiving attention of the third order.

 

Russia after Putin is unlikely to be a moderated Russia. The institutional bench behind Putin is populated not by liberals, but by security-state hardliners and ultranationalists who view the current regime as insufficiently aggressive. As Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz have argued, personalist autocracies rarely transition to moderation; they transition to chaos or to something harder. A post-Putin Russia armed with 6,000 nuclear warheads and led by someone to Putin’s right is a scenario that demands preparation now.

 

India, too, is in flux. Narendra Modi’s vision of a Hindu-majoritarian state that asserts civilizational confidence on the global stage has transformed Indian domestic politics. When Modi eventually leaves office, the question is not whether Hindu nationalism endures, but what form it takes and how a more assertive India interacts with an Indo-Pacific already strained by Sino-American competition. This is a first-tier strategic question for every democracy with interests east of Suez.

 

Layered on top of all this are structural disruptions that respect no political calendar: the coming tsunami of artificial intelligence displacing white-collar labor at a scale and speed for which no government has a credible plan; birth rates across the developed world falling below replacement and, increasingly, across the developing world; aging populations consuming ever-larger shares of national budgets; and the uneven but accelerating impacts of climate change on agriculture, migration, and state stability.

 

These are the issues that will define the next 25 years. Not Trump’s tariffs. Not the latest inflammatory social media post from Washington. Not the satisfying but ultimately sterile exercise of anti-American virtue signaling.

 

When you engage exclusively with a certain demographic of media commentator, academic, or policy analyst — the kind who populate panels and podcasts with a reliably rewarded anti-Trump lens — you receive answers that reinforce your priors. Confirmation bias is not a strategy. It’s a sedative. And countries that are sedated while the world transforms around them do not get second chances.

 

Canada and its allies need to do something deeply unfashionable: Stop staring at Washington and start staring in the mirror. The big picture is not about Donald Trump. It never was. 

With the War in Iran, the Press Is Not the Story

By Becket Adams

Sunday, April 12, 2026

 

There are many things for which the news media deserve criticism.

 

Their response to President Trump’s handling of his surprise war in Iran is not, for the most part, one of them.

 

The United States is engaged in a shooting war with a mad theocracy that is, importantly, a proxy for our more dangerous adversaries, China and Russia. If ever there was a time for a steady hand at the tiller, this is it. Unfortunately, we don’t have a steady hand. We have an American president behaving cryptically, playing the role of both hawk and dove, while neglecting to keep the public well-informed or even reassured.

 

It’s all the familiar chest-thumping and semi-coherent bluster we’ve come to expect of Trump, now with the added bonus of a ticking body count.

 

Thus, in a story that includes the most powerful man on earth, a barbaric regime bent on acquiring nuclear weapons, and threats of generational destruction, the least important character is the news media. Moreover, the press’s reaction — a mixture of confusion, repulsion, and genuine fear — is, this time, fully reasonable. The media are not the problem, though certain conservative critics insist they are.

 

Have those critics actually listened to the president these past few weeks?

 

Many of us have grown so used to Trump’s extreme rhetorical style that it has become background noise. However, after the deaths of 13 American servicemen, with no congressional authorization and no clear end goal in this war, this is a situation where we can’t simply ignore or wave away his behavior with a flip “That’s the art of the deal!”

 

“A whole civilization will die tonight,” the leader of the Western Hemisphere promised on April 7. “Never to be brought back again.”

 

He added, “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?”

 

Who knows, indeed.

 

Elsewhere, he said of the Iranian regime, “We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks — we’re going to bring them back to the Stone Age where they belong.”

 

What, exactly, does this mean?

 

Then there is this: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F***in’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.”

 

If the president wishes to sow confusion among our enemies, he has the CIA. If he wishes to strike fear in their hearts, he can do so without sacrificing the stature of his office or the gravity of presidential threats. And if he wishes to project ruthless bravado without regard for diplomatic niceties, that is what surrogates are for.

 

What, then, is he doing?

 

I dare you: Examine his public statements and tell me you see a coherent plan, one that answers not only your questions but those of our allies. Look closely. Does this man’s statements fill you with confidence? For many of us, they do not. It looks instead like a man teetering frantically between talk of peace and threats, promising terrible outcomes that no American has had time to consider, let alone endorse.

 

This is no way for free men to live.

 

We deserve some explanation of what victory looks like and some explanation of our goals and how to achieve them. The oft-repeated guidance to “trust the process” is not good enough on an ordinary day; it is certainly not good enough in time of war.

 

What we’ve seen thus far from this White House is not a process, much less a plan.

 

“A whole civilization will die tonight”? Trump could mean anything or nothing. Is he threatening genocide? War crimes? Nuclear war? Or is he just bluffing, transparently? These are not hysterical questions. They are reasonable ones, and reporters are right to ask them.

 

It is normal and human to want to know if the president really plans to raze an enemy country. Journalists want to know. I want to know. You should want to know. It is not hyperventilating to try to understand what the leader of the free world is threatening in our name. It is not overreacting to wonder whether his talk of civilizational extermination implies nuclear war. Does he mean it? Is it one of his famous negotiating tactics?

 

Who knows? Are we having fun yet?

 

To train fire, then, on the media’s reaction is missing the larger story. It’s also the right-wing version of the press’s old “Republicans pounce” trope: The real scandal is subordinated to the response. The difference is that, in this case, the disordering of priorities is far more serious an error. We are talking about the president of the United States and war with a would-be nuclear power. If anything is beside the point right now, it is the press’s response.

 

There is plenty to criticize in the media. The press is a target-rich environment, full of some of the worst people in any industry, including some who are very clearly rooting for an Iranian victory.

 

Yet when reporters ask, in tones of mounting shock, what the president is talking about while he behaves in a seemingly erratic manner while trying to wage a war, that is not unchecked hysteria. The journalists have a point: What is going on with President Trump?

Why So Grim About Iran?

By Luther Ray Abel

Friday, April 10, 2026

 

Jeff and John have written matched pieces detailing why the Iran war is a “debacle,” or if not that, then at least a net negative. Their support for this thesis — the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a fifth of the world’s oil supply, the regime’s continued defiance despite losing its leaders, and Trump’s recent pursuit of negotiations and a cease-fire — is legitimate. However, I’m unconvinced for a few reasons.

 

First and foremost, let’s take a moment to acknowledge just how successful the first month of combat has been. The first weeks were such a triumph that many can be forgiven for their ignorance.

 

As Noah Rothman has noted:

 

Within the first two weeks of the war, U.S. and Israeli forces unleashed a blistering wave of strikes on Iranian air defenses, radar systems, missile launch and storage facilities, drone capabilities, naval mines, air bases, and the pillars of regime stability. The Iranian air force is gone. Most of Iran’s air and missile bases have been rendered inoperable. Its naval installations along the Persian Gulf coast were incapacitated, and about 120 Iranian ships were disabled or sunk. And what remains of Iran’s once formidable network of terrorist proxies across the Middle East was decimated, their leadership ranks decapitated, and their local support networks disrupted or entirely cut off.

 

As the U.S.-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic entered its fourth week, their joint force embarked on what their military brass called “phase two” of the war: taking out Iran’s military infrastructure. The U.S. and Israel hit Iran’s nuclear facilities, including those that were struck in June 2025, as well as new targets, including undeclared nuclear sites. U.S.-Israeli strikes also began targeting Iran’s defense industrial base. Its missile-production facilities, drone manufacturers, explosives-production plants, and sensitive electronics developers came under sustained bombardment.

 

Second, a lull in the fighting is to our advantage, militarily and diplomatically. We have devastated everything the IRGC had above ground, so let the Iranians think we’re as soft as most Western governments. Send JD Vance to an unproductive summit in Pakistan. Sweeten our tone and talk of peace while Iran carries on with its jihadist blather. “We want to end hostilities, but they won’t listen.”

 

Soon, the doors in mountainside facilities will start opening, the IRGC forces will begin poking out their heads, and all the while, our eyes in the sky will be watching. Simultaneously, our supply ships will be transferring JP-5 and munitions to the depleted fuel tanks and magazines of the USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group. The flight deck and its airdales will sleep more than two hours at a stretch, do postponed maintenance, and possibly even shower.

 

Ground campaigns may be won by relentless advance and cold steel; bombing campaigns require intelligence-gathering, consumables to reach and return from the target, and a host of support. All three improve with a short reprieve.

 

Perhaps most important, the lull provides our enemy time for his adrenaline to drain. He must now take stock of his losses, his competing directives, and his exhaustion. It’s easy to fight when one’s blood is up and any second can be one’s last . . . it’s much harder when a man has time to wonder if he’s the last unit, or what’s happening at home, or if his new leader has sold him out. Iran hasn’t had the space to reckon with its power vacuum yet. Meanwhile, more U.S. ships gather off the coast.

 

The last thought is: Breathe . . . let the U.S. military do its thing. We’re still fresh into this conflict. Round One just concluded. We’d have taken this result if given the option before the bout began. Our fears are hypothetical, while our successes are stone cold. Abide.

Iran Out-Trolled the Troller in Chief

By Ali Breland

Friday, April 10, 2026

 

Since 2015, Donald Trump has been an apex predator on the internet. His social-media posts have caused geopolitical crises (we’ll invade Greenland!) and stock slumps (Amazon shares down 6 percent in one day!). For years, both Trump’s Republican opponents and Democrats tried to get the better of—or stoop lower than—the president and failed.

 

In contemporary internet slang, Trump is a Chad, an alpha male who almost always comes out on top in any internet spat and dominates his opponents. Those on the receiving end—the weak, feckless losers of the internet—are termed Virgins. Since late February, though, the Chad in chief has run up against a challenger that has relegated him to Virgin status: the Islamic Republic of Iran. The war that the United States fought against Tehran, now in a shaky two-week cease-fire, has been accompanied by a social-media trolling contest. Much as Iran’s forces exceeded expectations against the world’s most powerful military, Iran’s social-media posters have held their own against, or even upstaged, the world’s loudest voice online.

 

The most prominent example of Iran’s internet chops is a series of AI-generated LEGO-inspired videos, produced by a pro-Iranian group, depicting a hapless Trump in various states of distress over a war that they allege he has been goaded into by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The videos also show Stars and Stripes–draped coffins. Many of the videos depict Trump starting the war to distract from his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, the convicted child trafficker. A recent one ends with Trump holding a white flag as he cries and eats a taco (a nod to the refrain that “Trump Always Chickens Out”). Many of these videos have gone viral, accruing tens of thousands of likes and millions of views on platforms including TikTok, Instagram, and X.

 

Trump, meanwhile, spent the war posting lengthy diatribes on Truth Social, where the user base consists mostly of his own superfans, although the posts then circulated worldwide. Those messages were of great consequence for the direction of the war and, ultimately, the cease-fire, but they never made Trump seem relaxed or in control. (Even posting on his own platform gave a shut-in, Howard Hughes vibe.) Trump-administration accounts shared videos of targets in Iran that the military had blown up, which also went viral. One was edited to replicate the environment of the war video game Call of Duty, and another was set to the “Macarena.”

 

“The meme magic era Trump rode in on is long gone,” Jake Hanrahan told me. Hanrahan is the founder of Popular Front, an independent news outlet that trawls the depths of the internet and reports from conflict zones. In Hanrahan’s estimation, the White House has lost track of what resonates online. “They’ve put out YouTube horror–esque videos, and that doesn’t work,” Hanrahan said. “They’ve completely misunderstood the internet generation; the second you post cringe content, you’re done.” Iran’s videos aren’t exactly avant-garde (LEGOS are toys for children, after all) but they get their point across by depicting the dynamic of the U.S. as the “Virgin Israel puppet” against the “Chad, stoic underdog” Iran, Hanrahan said.

 

***

 

The Chad-versus-Virgin meme popped up about a decade ago, right around when Trump was finding his social-media voice as  president. The formula can be applied to almost anything. A user asserting the superiority of tennis over pickleball might invoke a muscular Chad with a comically strong jaw, looming over a timid figure grasping a paddle. And of course, the meme could just as easily be adapted to the defense of pickleball.

 

But the memes, however silly or reductive, often go viral when they successfully distill some underlying reality. Iran’s online trolling of Trump might have resonated with American audiences by tapping into broader frustrations over his conduct of the war, which has driven gas prices higher and Trump’s approval rating lower, as my colleagues Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Russell Berman have reported.

 

Trump’s war posts, by contrast, most often went viral for the apparent irrationality of his statements. When he threatened that Iran’s “whole civilization will die tonight” if no deal was reached, several of Trump’s erstwhile allies, including the right-wing conspiracy theorist Alex Jones and Marjorie Taylor Greene, the former representative turned Trump critic, advocated for the invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, which provides for the removal of an incapacitated president. Instead of making Trump appear bold or in control, the post made him seem maniacal and out of options.

 

The most popular Iranian videos come from a YouTube channel called Akhbar Enfejari (“Explosive News”), active on X and other platforms, which told The New Yorker that it has no official ties to the Iranian regime. But at least one state-media organization has reposted a video, and The Jerusalem Post reported that the clip appeared to have the watermark of Revayat-e Fath, an Iranian state-run media foundation.

 

Iranian embassies are posting their own memes. Iran’s embassy in Kenya has made a handful of references to Trump’s links to Epstein from its official government account. What appears to be the Iranian South Africa embassy account has called Trump a “psychopath” and accused him of having “memories with his filthy friends on Epstein Island.” (Trump denies ever having visited the island or having any knowledge of Epstein’s crimes.)

 

The LEGO-themed videos from Iran appear to be well crafted for American audiences. They are accompanied by terrible hip-hop songs, most likely produced by artificial intelligence, that are nevertheless oddly catchy. They distill simple messages: that Trump is a “L-O-S-E-R”; that if he sends troops to “slaughter, you’re the only one to blame”; and that “your government is run by pedophiles. They ordered you to die for Israel.”

 

All of this is very Trumpian. In the spring of last year, the White House posted two memes rendered to look as though they appeared in the animation style of Studio Ghibli—the beloved Japanese-animation company that created The Boy and the Heron and My Neighbor Totoro. One was of an immigrant being detained by ICE, and another showed Trump and J. D. Vance with the caption, “WE DO NOT ASK PERMISSION FROM FAR-LEFT DEMOCRATS before we deport illegal immigrants.” Some of the Iranian LEGO videos show Trump crying; the Trump administration’s own videos have featured AI-modified versions of others crying.

 

After the cease-fire announcement, the account linked to the Iranian embassy in South Africa posted a picture of the Iranian flag with the caption, “Say hello to the new world superpower.” This, too, echoed Trump-administration tactics. The White House posted the American flag in February 2025 on the day Vance chastised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a White House visit, and did so again four months later during the 12 days of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Trump also posted the flag after the U.S. military assassinated Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in 2020.

 

But at some point during his second administration, Trump lost his Chad streak. His ties to Epstein undercut his reputation (with his fans) as a chill truth teller or (with his detractors) as a villain with an uncanny ability to demean his enemies. As he migrated to Truth Social, unencumbered by X’s word limit (he hasn’t posted from @realDonaldTrump on X in over a month), Trump’s posts seemed lengthier, more erratic, and less relaxed. When the war with Iran failed to deliver the quick win the administration was hoping for, Trump came across as wilder and less in control. By the time he decided to threaten the eradication of a civilization in a bid to get oil tankers moving again in the Strait of Hormuz, he completed his descent. Iran is the Chad now.

Saturday, April 11, 2026

Beware the Stranger, Professor Kendi

By Kevin D. Williamson

Saturday, April 11, 2026

 

If you ever have spent much time around newspapers, then you will have heard—and learned to be unscandalized by—the phrase “a good murder.” It is not that reporters want there to be more horrifying, dramatic crimes or that even the most cynical and hard-bitten among them do not feel for the victims of criminal violence. But … these are really good stories, as stories. War correspondents do not love war any more than oncologists love cancer, but an interesting case is an interesting case, and the opportunity to exercise one’s talents—perhaps even in a war that contributes to the general good—is welcome.

 

And, from that point of view: What a tragedy Ibram X. Kendi is! Our present situation calls urgently for a writer and public intellectual of the sort Kendi should be and seems to aspire to be. If ever there were something like “a good murder” for scholars of racism and authoritarianism, we are right in the middle of the crime scene. The president of the United States is a genuine authoritarian and undeniably an exemplar of the phenomenon professor Kendi writes about in his latest book, Chain of Ideas: The Origins of Our Authoritarian Age, in which he argues that different versions of what we have come to call “replacement theory” enable not only figures such as Donald Trump but also autocrats from Europe to South America.

 

Prof. Kendi, as many readers will already know, has long worked from a crude intellectual model—crude to the point of being almost silly—that every word, thought, deed, and policy can be characterized simply either as racist or antiracist, a totalist approach in which there is no neutrality or safe harbor, no matter how far removed the subject at hand may be from race and racism per se: That which is not positively antiracist is racist. The world is more complex than that, of course—racism is more complex than that, for that matter.

 

Prof. Kendi cannot quite decide whether to exempt individuals from his binary scheme: “No one is a racist,” he writes in his latest. (That was not the impression I got from the last Williamson family reunion in Oklahoma.) That is, he argues, because racist is not a “fixed identity” and “it does not clearly define a person.” Which would be a defensible view if he had not, in the same paragraph, explained how to define a person as a racist: “I define racist as someone who is expressing an idea of racial hierarchy or supporting an inequitable or unjust policy with their actions or inaction.” “A racist” is either a “someone” or not. One would expect a scholar for whom racism is a theory of everything to have reached a consistent and definite view about that. (Prof. Kendi expands on this, but does not improve it, in a later chapter titled “Definitions.”) Surely it is the case that racism does not exclusively define a person—even the most monomaniacal racist is many other things in addition to that—but then racism need not exclusively define racially relevant policies or ideas, either. For example, Prof. Kendi defines certain college-admissions policies as racist based on the fact that they confer a relative advantage on a disproportionately white population (such as “legacies” and children of donors). But there also have been—and are—admissions policies in which race is an explicit factor and, at times, an explicit bar. For example, there was a long period of time during which an African American who could enroll at Hillsdale could not enroll at Harvard, which simply did not admit black students, women, and others who were categorically excluded. Making admissions easier for certain Ivy League student athletes in 2026 might very well advantage a subpopulation of white men relative to black men and women and might even be judged as racist or sexist on those grounds, but such a policy is nonetheless distinct—both practically and morally—from policies that simply exclude black applicants or women, or that impose restrictive quotas, as the Ivy League schools long did to keep down the number of Jews on their campuses. Prof. Kendi’s formulation does not really make adequate room for this.

 

And here I am reminded of one of my own complaints: Elite policy conversation is dominated by elite interests, which is why we are talking about elite university admissions practices in a book to which these are at most tangentially related. But Prof. Kendi puts these in the book for a reason—he believes that the campaign against racial preferences for nonwhite college applicants are a link in that “chain of ideas” he is writing about: Putinists and well-meaning if naive advocates of “colorblind” policies are, from that point of view, all cogs in the same machine.

 

Donald Trump’s racism, like almost everything else about Trump, is at times vague and inconclusive: If Trump’s racial views are not quite what most English-speaking people over the course of the past century have meant by racism, it is because racism is a degenerate form of loyalty, and Trump is immune to loyalty of any kind. But, again, what most people mean by the word racism is not quite what Prof. Kendi means, and while his boutique version of racism is not often all that useful and very often the opposite of useful, it is well-fitted to the job of analyzing Donald Trump, whose illiterate and obsessive “good genes” talk is based on a primitive view of a genetic hierarchy that operates not only between races but within and across them. Trump’s views reflect an older but not unfamiliar view of racial hierarchy, one that has informed ancient debates about which Europeans counted as “white” (Slavs? Sicilians?) and even which Asians might be granted effectively white status (some high-caste Hindus had been allowed to naturalize under a 1906 U.S. law restricting the privilege to “free whites” because they represented the “highest type” of Hindu, as one court put it, until a 1923 decision put a stop to that). Trump’s racism is to some extent idiosyncratic, but he is surrounded by racists of a much more frank and ordinary sort, and the broader right-wing nationalist-populist movement contains a whole constellation of race cranks, neo-Nazis, and sundry kooks whose views on race would make Jesse Helms look like Jesse Jackson. In Trump and the Trump movement, Prof. Kendi has a target that is—to our national disgrace and the horror of every self-respecting American—almost tailor-made for his attention.

 

Unfortunately, his book is lazy and sloppy. Prof. Kendi is a bad writer, even for an academic. The predictable solecisms are well represented (e.g., he doesn’t seem to know what enormity means, but, then, neither do most professional writers), and there is an element of contempt for the reader in his slovenliness on the page—he supposedly is a man with a theory, and he treats his readers as though they were too dumb to see the difference between theory and rhetoric.

 

Let me share with you a minor, annoying example of the careless way Prof. Kendi goes about his literary business. Dipping into Brazilian politics, he writes:

 

Jair Bolsonaro recalled the time he saved a drowning Black soldier. “If I was racist, what would I have done on seeing a black fall into the water? I’d have folded my arms.” Bolsonaro thus indirectly defined racist as a hate-filled person who would never do anything humane for “a black.”

 

The sneering quotes around “a black” are meant to tell you what you need to know about Bolsonaro’s racial attitudes, of course—he is the kind of out-of-touch bigot who, like your Fox News-watching uncle, talks about “a black” or “the blacks.” But, of course, Bolsonaro never said: “If I was racist, what would I have done on seeing a black fall into the water? I’d have folded my arms.” According to the press account,what he said was:

 

Por coincidência, é negro…. Se eu fosse racista: o negão caiu dentro da água e eu ia fazer o quê? Eu ia cruzar os braços. Entrei lá. Na segunda vez que mergulhei, consegui trazer o negão do fundo da lagoa.

 

Bolsonaro does not speak English.

 

I do not speak Portuguese, but I am informed by my cursory reading that the word negão is a complicated one, at times affectionate and at times offensive, much like the infamous American racial epithet it calls to mind, but, at the same time, negão is not as charged as that word. To use a translated quotation in the way Prof. Kendi does, infusing it with imagined nuance imported from American English, is intellectual malpractice.

 

In a similar way, Prof. Kendi is overly fond of the word likely. E.g., a certain racist “likely chanted ‘You will not replace us’ at a rally,” “one passage that likely stuck with Adolf Hitler,” “one likely early influence on [Jean-Marie] Le Pen was René Binet,” Marine Le Pen voters “likely enjoyed” Charlie Hebdo cartoons, a father “likely heard his son ridicule Muslims in the way Nazis had ridiculed Jews,” Hitler “likely opposed Winston Churchill’s ‘United States of Europe,’” both “the Muslim travel ban and the Women’s March were likely on [terrorist Alexandre] Bissonnette’s mind when he read a conspiracy theory online on January 29.”

 

Some of the book’s likelihoods are knowable—an enterprising scholar could run down at least some of them. But Prof. Kendi prefers to fill in the details in whatever way fits his thesis.

 

More likelihood:

 

El Mercurio, “which had Chile’s highest paid circulation, had likely remained the favored outlet for Chile’s neo-Nazi and Nazi community in the twenty-first century” and “would likely have been the favorite paper of former Nazis.” There’s not much evidence for that, and 21st-century neo-Nazis tend to congregate mainly online rather than passing newspapers from hand to hand. El Mercurio has been accused of being blasé in its writing about Nazi historical figures, but that is a different question.

 

Prof. Kendi also seems to believe that it is likely that Nazi exiles profoundly shaped the political life of South America:

 

Some likely disassociated from their Nazi ideology in public. Maybe some unlearned their Nazi ideology, refusing to pass it on to their children. Others no doubt planted Nazi ideology within the minds of their children and grandchildren. Some of those children and grandchildren possibly discovered and uprooted these Nazi ideas. Some of them carried these Nazi ideas into adulthood. Some of them renovated Nazism into neo-Nazism—into a new great replacement theory. And some of them have been achieving the power and influence their parents experienced long ago in Nazi Germany. Their parents were Nazis. They are neo-Nazis. These neo-Nazis hide in plain sight, largely undetected and unprosecuted in the twenty-first century. Accurate definitions of neo-Nazism and racism are needed for people to clearly see them. But neo-Nazism and racism have been misdefined since the days of Nazi Germany.

 

I do not know what it could hope to mean to claim that neo-Nazism has been “misdefined since the days of Nazi Germany,” given that there were no neo-Nazis in “the days of Nazi Germany,” just Nazis. (Paleo-Nazis?) The term neo-Nazi did not come into use until the 1950s, for obvious reasons. The whole book is marred by these kinds of intellectual fender-benders.

 

Those little messes are not random. Prof. Kendi practices an ethics of moral infection—x cited y book, z cited y book, ergo x is infected with z’s moral transgressions—and where there is no known vector of transmission for the political cooties of his imagination, he simply invents one. For example, about the 1973 French novel The Camp of the Saints, he writes: “Jean-Marie Le Pen almost certainly read the book.” That is based on … nothing obvious. Marine Le Pen, Jean-Marie Le Pen’s at times estranged daughter and successor, has recommended the novel. But either there is documentary evidence that Jean-Marie Le Pen read the book or there isn’t. (He does not seem to have been a great reader of literary fiction.) That doesn’t mean that Le Pen père was not influenced by the ideas associated with that book—Donald Trump surely has been, and I’d be very surprised if Trump had read that novel or any other. And the politics of moral infection is complicated—the Le Pens certainly embraced Renaud Camus’ “great replacement” ideas, but Camus rejected Jean-Marie Le Pen, hated the fact that the anti-immigration tendency in France had “been embodied for a quarter of a century and more by one man, Jean-Marie Le Pen,” and in 2002 launched a political party to provide an alternative to both the mainstream conservatives and Le Pen. In a 2022 interview with a crackpot right-wing outlet, Camus complained that Marine Le Pen was “almost entirely replacist.” That the man Prof. Kendi credits with shaping the fundamental politics of Marine Le Pen does not think that Marine Le Pen represents his view of the world should be a fact of some considerable interest, I would think. But the views of Renaud Camus et al. are relevant only when they buttress Prof. Kendi’s case—when they would complicate it, they are mainly ignored.

 

One of the problems with a simplified politics of moral contagion is that it makes it difficult to draw useful distinctions, in this case the distinction between a particular kind of noxious politics rooted in a particular conspiracy theory (that “elites” are using immigration to secure their own interests) and a more general social and cultural conservatism that intersects with that “replacement theory” politics on the most ordinary and normal kind of policy questions. Unless we are to take seriously the unserious proposition that the only two views of immigration are open borders on the one hand and Nazism or Trumpism or Hindutva on the other—and Prof. Kendi would have us conclude that these are all substantially identical—then we are going to have discussions about immigration restrictions that inescapably include the questions Who? and How many?

 

It is easier for Americans to think about this outside of our own context. But if you got onto an airplane and landed in Tokyo and then drove to Kyoto and saw nothing in the one place or the other or in between other than fat white people eating Five Guys burgers and speaking semi-literate American English and talking about football—surely you would feel that something had been lost, and that that something was Japanese-ness. Japanese conservatism about Japanese-ness is racial in that it is inexplicably tied up with a preference for a population that is ethnically Japanese (as the Japanese population today overwhelmingly is) as well as Japanese-speaking and historically and ancestrally tied to Japanese culture and traditions. But if the Japanese preference for Japanese-ness is poisonous bigotry, we need a different set of words and concepts for certain events in Germany, South Africa, and the United States, among others.

 

Cultural conservatism works out differently in different societies: The French are much more liberal and diverse than the Japanese, but, God bless them, they almost never apologize for being French or for preferring French things and French ways, and they were like that long before Renaud Camus came along.

 

Those who point out that the things being said today about Latin American immigrants also were said in the 19th century about Irish Catholic immigrants very rarely go on to point out that those who said those waves of immigration would forever change the culture, religion, and politics of cities such as Boston, New York, and Philadelphia were absolutely correct. They did. Boston was arguably the nation’s least Catholic major city in John Adams’ time (there were no Catholic churches and no publicly celebrated Masses, and Jesuits for a time could be put to death simply for being present in Massachusetts) whereas today its identity is very much tied up in its modern Irish-Catholic heritage. “The Great Replacement” may be a nutty conspiracy theory, but great replacements do happen—I don’t know how you say “white interloper” in any of the indigenous American languages, but I am sure the people we call Comanche have a word for it.

 

It is intellectually incoherent to scoff at resistance to population change on the one hand and to lament “settler colonialism” on the other. No, it is not the case that Central American construction workers are the moral equivalent of Belgians in the Congo, but the story of human civilization is that people move around and bump into each other, and that, where there is conflict, someone wins and someone loses. Nations rise and fall. But if you are going to try to convince me that the Republic of Korea’s preference for an ethnically Korean Korea is of a piece with the Final Solution, you’re going to have to do a lot more work than the author does in this book.

 

Prof. Kendi undoubtedly is correct when he argues that racial prejudice exercises a profound influence on how white people in liberal societies think about who can be assimilated, who should be assimilated, and who has a right even to be considered for that. (It comes up less often in illiberal societies and in racially homogenous societies: Assimilation in North Korea is not really a thing.) But even here, Prof. Kendi both oversimplifies and distorts matters. He argues that Renaud Camus is wrong to think of North Africans in southern France as alien, writing:

 

Despite religious and phenotypic differences, people around the western Mediterranean Sea have been interacting, trading, warring, migrating, and reproducing together for centuries. They have been sharing cultures and histories since at least the ancient Roman Empire, which encompassed what is now France and North Africa. Together, this diversity of peoples formed Mediterranean culture. Tourists can now dine on Mediterranean cuisine at restaurants in Southern Europe and North Africa.

 

First of all, if anybody really thinks there is such a thing as “Mediterranean cuisine,” I have a hummus stand in Tel Aviv to sell you, along with a bulletproof vest. (Good luck!) But if “Mediterranean culture” is sort of a thing, then so is “European culture,” and perhaps the various peoples of the European Union are not entirely wrong to value it. Nor are they wrong to keep in mind that one of the reasons there is such a thing as “Mediterranean culture” in north Africa is the fact that the poor hapless Egyptians got themselves replaced good and hard, being ruled for 1000 years by imported Greeks and Romans. Hellenism was imposed on much of the Mediterranean at spearpoint by the armies of Alexander the Great, and then Islam was imposed on much of the same territory in much the same way. “European culture” was made from the same recipe—different conquerors, same process. In its turn, Islam was imposed on Europe from the Iberian Peninsula to the gates of Vienna, while National Socialism was imposed on Europe from Norway to Greece and from Brest to the suburbs of Stalingrad. Conquest is a matter of living memory in Europe. One need not have any time for Renaud Camus or the Le Pens or the Trumps to take as entirely reasonable that maxim that “Switzerland is for the Swiss,” as I have heard it put from time to time.

 

Europe has seen a great deal of social change over the years, and much of it has been unwelcome. If we really believe in the self-determination of peoples, then we must also believe in the right of political communities to decide who joins those communities and on what terms—rather than having terms and conditions imposed on them, either by well-meaning moralists or by the brute facts of immigrant boots on the ground.

 

That well-meaning liberal intellectuals can see the question of self-determination very clearly in the matter of, say, the First Nations in Canada but not in the case of Canada itself, much less in the case of France or the United States, shows just how parochial and limited our well-meaning liberal intellectuals really can be when faced with the messy facts of real-world political decision-making. The American people, damn their eyes, have twice chosen Trump and Trumpism, at least in part because some of them saw the choice as between what Trump stands for and what such figures as Ibram X. Kendi stand for, which includes a narrow, ahistorical, and at times sanctimonious account of what it means to be a political community. Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and the rest of that ghastly horror show did not come out of nowhere—and they did not come out of the imaginations of a couple of French novelists none of you had ever heard of until five minutes ago. (It is good that French novelists do not have so much power—Michel Houellebecq is going to be in print for a long, long time.) Prof. Kendi is part of the problem, though not a very big part of the problem.

 

Americans could use someone to do what it is Prof. Kendi seems to want to do, but doing it in a constructive way is going to require a more open, more genuinely liberal, and more humane approach to the tangle of human affairs than what is on offer in this book. Prof. Kendi often seems not to have so much an idea as an enemies list, and, even though some of his enemies deserve to be all of our enemies, that is not enough. The job at hand will require someone who can answer T. S. Eliot’s question:

 

When the Stranger says: “What is the meaning of this city ?
Do you huddle close together because you love each other?”
What will you answer? “We all dwell together
To make money from each other”? or “This is a community”?
Oh my soul, be prepared for the coming of the Stranger.
Be prepared for him who knows how to ask questions.

The Banality of MAGA-fication

By Jonathan Chait

Friday, April 10, 2026

 

From the vantage point of a decade ago, Donald Trump’s current command over the Republican establishment today would be difficult to fathom. Even after he dispatched his rivals in the 2016 primary, the presidential nominee remained persona non grata. That year’s Republican National Convention filled its programming with second-raters (Scott Baio gave a prime-time speech), while Ted Cruz and other speakers refused to endorse Trump onstage; National Review famously published a special issue denouncing him. When outliers such as Jeff Sessions and Chris Christie straggled into his camp, their betrayal provoked mockery and outrage.

 

The party elites withheld their support for Trump due to concerns over his corruption, his affection for dictators and dictatorships, and his general unfitness for office. Those worries were borne out. And yet, nearly all of the party’s members have abandoned their qualms and fallen in line with a president who did every destructive thing they predicted. Why on earth would they do that?

 

John Tillman’s new book, The Political Vise, helps illuminate this still very unsettling question. Tillman is a mid-level, mainstream Republican operative who has worked mostly at the state level. The arguments he produces are shallow and largely familiar. But the very banality of the author and his reasoning are what make the book interesting as a source text: It reveals how traditional Reaganite Republican foot soldiers (and National Review, which gave the book a thumbs-up) made their peace with a figure they once found so repulsive.

 

“The Vise” is the organizing metaphor for Tillman’s argument, in which he posits that the American left has gained quasi-permanent control of American politics. Although his metaphor is original, the underlying case is not. Numerous conservatives have employed other conceits to illustrate the left’s supposed control of American life: “The Cathedral,” the “long march through the institutions,” the “Flight 93 election,” and so on.

 

All of those constructs serve the purpose of imagining the Democrats not as a rival coalition with opposing policies but as a unified, impersonal force that is always on the precipice of totalitarian control. This desperate situation leaves Republicans with no choice but to destroy that which threatens to destroy them. And if the instrument of destruction available to them is an imperfect vessel, so be it.

 

Tillman has run a conservative pressure group in Illinois working for traditional party goals—lowering taxes, fighting unions, being tough on crime. He remains slightly uncomfortable about Trump, conceding that the president’s “pugnacious demeanor often made it easy for his enemies to rally against him” and that he “has not always behaved like a perfect gentleman” with women.

 

But Tillman also believes that the 2020 election was unfair. Conservative complaints about that election come in two broad categories. The strong version is Trump’s claim that the election was stolen through fraudulent ballots. The weaker version holds that the election was “rigged” by social media, liberalized mail-in balloting, and other stratagems, even if the vote count was technically correct. Tillman expresses openness to both theories. “We may never know the full extent of the manipulations that took place before, during, and after the 2020 election,” he writes. He justifies the January 6 attacks (“Without excusing violence, I note that when you squeeze ordinary Americans in a Vise, not all of them will comply with your demands”) and decries the sentencing of the rioters as excessive. “The Progressive Political Vise,” he asserts, using Trumpian-style capitalization rules, “worked to crush anyone who dared question the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.”

 

Tillman approvingly quotes Lenin’s call for his followers to seize the “commanding heights.” The difference, according to him, is that, unlike Lenin’s Communist revolution, the right-wing revolt will empower people who are good. “Those of us who love liberty can once again take control of the culture,” he writes, in a phrase brimming with Orwellian irony. (Any culture controlled by a political faction is, by definition, not at liberty.)

 

So how did a prosperous midwestern Republican proceed from wanting lower taxes to justifying a coup attempt? One answer is that the electoral failure of his traditional Republican positions has bred a suspicion of democracy. At one point, Tillman complains that “bureaucrats have worked hard to entrench Medicare,” and at another, he blames “the Vise” for stopping George W. Bush’s 2005 attempt to privatize Social Security.

 

The reality is that Medicare and Social Security enjoy fervent public support. The conservative movement has never accepted the legitimacy of those programs, but rather than recognize that public opinion has made them unassailable, it has turned against democracy itself. For better or worse, the failure to eliminate popular social benefits means that the political system is working as designed. Yet Tillman, like many other conservatives, attributes decades of frustration to shadowy forces.

 

A second explanation for this extremist drift is that the conservative movement has shut out information sources that challenge its own biases, sealing itself into a radicalization silo. Tillman dismisses mainstream media such as The New York Times and The Washington Post as partisan propaganda, boasting that “I laugh out loud” when anybody tells him that they trust those outlets’ reporting. Tillman relies on sources such as the late cartoonist Scott Adams, a prolific social-media poster known for endorsing conspiracy theories.

 

The effects of this unhealthy information diet upon Tillman’s critical-thinking skills leap off every page. He is, in particular, impervious to internal contradictions. “To keep the masses at heel,” he writes, liberals “warn constantly of an existential peril that is always just about to overtake our government.” Elsewhere, he warns of his opponents’ … existential peril: “We live in the period of greatest risk to our republic since the Civil War. The radicalized progressive left aims to apply the power of the Political Vise to subjugate those Americans who dissent from their worldview.”

 

Tillman urges politicians to “accept that your message didn’t carry the day and take responsibility for the loss,” but the only application he can find for this lesson in recent politics is the Democratic Party’s failure to accept the results of the 2016 election with sufficient grace. He casually cites Trump’s “record-high popularity” without bothering to explain what he means by that. (Trump’s approval rating at its best moments has never come close to the peak levels of Barack Obama, Ronald Reagan, and both George H. W. and George W. Bush.)

 

During one rant against cancel culture and its pernicious tendency to smear the innocent, Tillman brings up Joseph McCarthy as a prime example of a person whose reputation was unfairly destroyed. (That McCarthy’s most important contribution to reputation destruction might not be as a victim of it seems not to have occurred to him.)

 

The preface of the book is a George Orwell quote: “The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power, pure power.” It is supposed to be self-apparent that Tillman is describing the Democrats. Yet his book’s central point is that Republicans must recognize the Democrats’ ruthlessness and, as he writes, “cultivate that ruthlessness in ourselves.” Orwell’s perhaps most famous observation is that would-be despots employ their opponents’ abuses as propaganda to justify their own, turning themselves into the thing they decry. To this lesson, as to so many ironies screaming out from his prose, Tillman appears oblivious.

 

Although The Political Vise has little value as analysis, it offers a harrowing glimpse into how ordinary partisanship, when trapped for too long in an airless chamber of propaganda, metastasizes into outright authoritarianism. Tillman has taken the time to chronicle his own journey from a traditional Republican to a mouthpiece for an administration that aspires to lock up its foes, shut down independent media, and beat peaceful protesters.

 

The horror story of a man transforming into a monster is a familiar genre. So is the how-to guide. Rarely does a reader come across a work that manages to be both.