By Nick Catoggio
Thursday, February 05, 2026
A recurring challenge when writing about the president’s
advisers is resisting the “good czar, bad
boyars” fallacy.
If you don’t know the term, you certainly know the
phenomenon. Republicans in Washington have supplied daily examples of it for
the past 10 years. It’s the idea that, in a monarchy, all credit for good
developments is properly due to His Majesty while all blame for bad
developments devolves to his deputies for having failed him.
It’s nonsense. But when your professional stature and
possibly your personal safety depend on not offending the czar, it’s
irresistible nonsense—especially after you’ve gotten used to it. Republican
Sen. Thom Tillis, for instance, still routinely
resorts to “good czar, bad boyars” logic when criticizing the White House
despite the fact that he’ll be out of politics in less than a year. For the GOP
establishment, scapegoating Donald Trump’s aides for his mistakes long ago
ceased being a matter of strategy. At this stage of their traumatic hostage
ordeal, it’s Pavlovian.
And so, before we contemplate the influence of an
unusually bad boyar like deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, we should pause
to remind ourselves that no one is worse than the czar himself. If you
doubt it, go watch
this clip of Republican Rep. Ben Cline at this morning’s National Prayer
Breakfast.
“We are reminded that leadership is not only about policy
and power, but about character, conscience, and the recognition that all
authority is ultimately accountable to God,” Cline said with a straight face to
an audience of Christian Trump supporters—before welcoming El Salvadoran
dictator and gulag
operator Nayib Bukele to the stage. Bukele was an honored guest because
he’s one of the president’s most dependable international cronies; when Trump
took to the podium later, he made a point of praising the “very strong prisons”
that El Salvador runs.
We will debate forever to what extent the total
corruption of Christian conservatism was a top-down matter of Trump seducing a
coalition of Pharisees to adopt
an alternate morality or a bottom-up case of pre-existing moral rot within
the movement surfacing as norms of political propriety dissolved. (Some of
both, surely.) Wherever you land on that, though, there’s no blaming Stephen
Miller for it. It’s the czar himself who’s bad. And many more of his subjects
than any of us would have guessed a decade ago are pretty bad as well.
Still, advisers do matter.
It’s not “good czar, bad boyars” logic to note that the
president’s second term has been more oppressive than his first, partly because
he’s surrounded himself this time with deputies who won’t restrain him. The
majority are yes-men who feel a duty to indulge his worst impulses, but a few,
most notably Miller, are actually generating some of those impulses. And they
are very clearly wrecking
Trump’s popularity in the process.
A bad czar has become more despised than he otherwise
might have been because one very, very bad boyar is giving him terrible advice,
and there’s evidence that the czar has started to realize it. What will Trump
do about his Stephen Miller problem?
Out of touch.
The “Stephen Miller problem” is actually three problems.
(Well, four.)
Miller is the White House’s chief proponent for mass
deportation, reportedly hellbent on removing
1 million illegal immigrants per year. Everything we’ve seen from the
administration over the last six months flows from that—workplace raids aimed
at rounding up illegals with no criminal record, legal impunity granted to
immigration agents to encourage them to execute their mandate aggressively, and
huge federal shows of force like the one playing out in Minneapolis to signal
how important the issue is to Trump and his team.
That’s all Miller. Americans hate it.
A Quinnipiac poll published
yesterday found 60 percent believe the administration is treating immigrants
too harshly, while a nearly identical percentage said they favor giving most
illegals a pathway to legal status. Trump’s job approval on immigration in the
same poll dropped from 44 percent in December to 38 percent now, a trend
replicated in other surveys. Nate
Silver’s tracker had the president at -3.8 points in net immigration
approval as recently as December 10, but today he’s all the way down to -11.1.
Americans don’t like Miller’s deport-everyone priorities.
They don’t like the way immigration enforcement officers
do business either. Last month, after Renee Good was shot but before Alex
Pretti was killed, a New
York Times poll found 61 percent of respondents believed Immigration
and Customs Enforcement had gone “too far” with its tactics and another 63
percent disapproved of how it’s handling its job. This week’s Quinnipiac survey
replicated that 63 percent figure, fueled by a remarkable 47 percent who said
they personally know someone who’s living in fear of Trump’s deportation
policies. A majority of 51 percent assessed that those policies—the linchpin of
the right’s law-and-order message—are making the country less safe.
The true dagger for the czar and his bad boyar, though,
is how their obsession with immigration has distracted them from Americans’
exasperation with the cost of living. Check any national poll and you’ll find
evidence that voters are furious with the White House for not focusing on the
economy. Yet instead of executive action on affordability, they’ve spent the
last month drowning in dystopian scenes of an ICE crackdown in Minnesota that’s
killed two American citizens.
Last month, by a margin of nearly 2-to-1, respondents in
a CNN
survey rated the economy as the most important issue facing the United States.
The same poll found just 36 percent of Americans believe the president has the
right policy priorities, though, and an even smaller share agreed when asked if
they thought he cares about people like them. That was the worst number of his
five years in office.
Ditto for last month’s Times poll: “Overall, 57
percent of voters thought Mr. Trump was focused on the wrong issues—including a
whopping 69 percent of voters under 30, more than any other age group.”
Unsurprisingly, those who named immigration as their top issue did think
Trump had the right priorities. Too bad for him and Miller that those people
are a small-ish minority.
The extreme disillusionment that the Times found
among young adults also turned up in a Wall
Street Journal survey. Among nine issues tested, Trump’s single worst
rating in the 18- to 29-year-old cohort came with respect to “having the right
priorities,” on which he was 36 points underwater. “A lot of people expected
him to address economic issues first,” one College Republican from Ohio told
the paper, worrying that the president has spent too much time on immigration.
Trump and Miller have lost touch with the country,
sidetracked by their fantasy of purifying
the national “blood” by purging undesirables, and the public’s reaction is
turning ugly. Fifty-eight percent in the CNN poll (conducted before Pretti’s
death) called the president’s first year a failure. Forty-nine percent in the Times
survey believe America is worse off now than it was a year ago, compared to 32
percent who believe it’s better off. New polling data from Harvard-Harris
this week found 51 percent overall said Trump is doing a worse job than Joe
Biden. Among independents, 56 percent said so.
The cherry on top of this widening political disaster is
that it was Stephen Miller who reportedly
seized the initiative to defame Pretti as a “domestic terrorist” and would-be
“assassin” in the hours after he lay dead on the pavement. Not content to
spearhead an agenda that Americans dislike and to carry it out in ways they
despise, Miller cemented the White House’s role as villain in Minneapolis by
smearing an innocent victim of state violence as the aggressor.
That’s the fourth “Stephen Miller problem” I mentioned
earlier: his inability to restrain his impulses toward viciousness even when
doing so would benefit him and his boss. The thought of making common cause
with him will grow increasingly repulsive to all but the most fanatic and/or
dissolute border hawks.
As the saying goes: The first step to recovery is
admitting you have a problem. Donald Trump might be nearing the point of
admitting he has a problem with Stephen Miller.
Miller time.
According to the Wall
Street Journal, the czar isn’t altogether happy with his most notorious
boyar.
Cracks have
appeared even in the Oval Office. The president, aware of polls showing that
much of his immigration agenda isn’t popular, has told advisers he wasn’t
comfortable with how far Miller has gone on some fronts, according to people
who have spoken with Trump. The president has said that business officials are
calling and complaining to him about longtime workers being thrown out of the
country.
…
Miller pushed for
sweeps at Home Depot and other spots where day workers gather, though Trump has
at times been asked to temper raids at businesses. Following immigration
arrests in September by federal agents at a Hyundai Motor factory in Georgia,
Republican Gov. Brian Kemp called the president and asked for the release of
300 South Korean workers, according to administration officials. The president
publicly said he opposed the raid and told Kemp privately that he didn’t know
it was happening. He told aides repeatedly that he didn’t want any more sweeps
at factories or farms, the officials said.
That’s not all. Trump also reportedly raised an eyebrow
when Miller began giving television interviews on subjects beyond his
portfolio, like the White House’s designs on Venezuela and Greenland. (“He
doesn’t do foreign policy,” the president is said to have complained to an
aide.) Ask Steve Bannon what
happens when an adviser gets too big for his britches and starts crowding
into a media spotlight that rightly belongs to one, and only one, man.
Seems like we have a solution in search of a problem,
then. Fire Stephen Miller, pivot to a “deport the criminals first” strategy on
immigration and a much lower profile for ICE, and spend the next eight months
laser-focused on reducing the cost of living. That might not be enough to
prevent a Democratic House takeover in November, but it could hold down losses,
preventing a blue wave and potentially saving the Senate.
One Dispatch colleague even suggested to me that
Trump could “declare victory” on immigration as a pretext for abandoning
Miller’s deport-everyone strategy and pulling out of Minnesota. Why not? Crusty
hardline nationalists like Bannon might object, but 90 percent of Trump’s
supporters will believe anything he tells them. If he says it’s time to work on
other things because the immigration problem has been solved, then the
immigration problem has been solved.
And yes, I realize it’s almost unheard of in Trump 2.0
for an aide to perform so horribly that he ends up being axed for it, but
it does happen. It’s a penalty reserved for the worst of the worst, it
seems. Stephen Miller certainly qualifies.
In fact, at the risk of veering too close to “good czar,
bad boyars” logic, it’s fair to say that in some ways the deputy is a
more sinister figure than his boss. Trump is a fascist by instinct, but Miller is a
fascist in full. According to the
Journal, it’s Miller who’s been behind the most hair-raisingly
lawless gambits of Trump’s second term, from shipping detainees to Bukele’s
gulag without due process to blowing up suspected drug traffickers in the
Caribbean without authorization from Congress to the ICE rampage in Minneapolis
that’s brought
the judicial system to its knees.
Miller and his master share the goal of consolidating
power in an autocrat but are driven to it by meaningfully different desires, I
sense. Trump wants to be Caesar because he luxuriates
in the grandeur of the role. Miller wants Trump to be Caesar because
postliberalism needs that degree of unchallenged power in order to effectively
subjugate its enemies. My guess is that he, more so than even Trump, would
enthusiastically support overturning adverse election results this fall or in
2028 in the name of “saving the country.”
A Trump administration without Miller would be ruthless
but less ruthless than an administration with Miller would be. And inevitably,
I think, it would govern in ways that would improve its popularity. For all his
mania, the president yearns to be loved and admired. He cares about winning
elections, if only for narcissistic reasons. Miller, the ideologue, plainly
doesn’t give a rip and possibly revels in being hated.
So you would think Trump would be willing to send him
packing. But … it’s awfully hard to imagine, isn’t it?
‘Where’s my Roy Cohn?’
For one thing, it’s hard to imagine how a Trump
administration without Miller would operate. The Journal claims that
Miller has either drafted or edited every executive order the president
has signed in his second term. I repeat what I said last
week: He’s “a sort of human operating system for Trumpism” whose dismissal
would “amount to uninstalling the postliberal ideological software on which the
entire administration runs.”
But Miller’s presence is existential for the White House
in another way. What was the point of reelecting Donald Trump, and the point of
postliberalism writ large, if not to empower authoritarian cretins like Stephen
Miller and unleash them on the American people?
What would be left of this second term as a culture-war
project without him? Would Republicans consider it a triumph if the president
ditched his most ideologically committed aides, pivoted to a conventional
Republican agenda over his last three years, and finished his term with a
respectable-ish 46 percent approval rating without further meaningful
achievements? Sure, some would (the immigration problem has been solved),
but postliberals would be crushed. They would accuse Trump of having squandered
a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to transform American political culture
durably into the sort of garbage third-world friends/enemies system they
fantasize about.
This isn’t politics as usual. So why would personnel
decisions about unpopular aides and their unpopular programs be made based on
the usual political incentives?
Years ago, during his first term, in a fit of anger over
the Justice Department’s investigation into his relationship with Russia, Trump
reportedly exclaimed to aides, “Where’s
my Roy Cohn?” Cohn was an amoral lawyer and “fixer” with the distinction of
having worked for the two most infamous demagogues in American history,
red-baiting Sen. Joe McCarthy and, later in life, a young Donald Trump. In
asking “Where’s my Roy Cohn?”, the president was scolding the attorneys who
worked for his administration for not being cutthroat enough about shielding
him from the Russia probe. He needed aides who would behave ruthlessly, without
apology, in the name of winning.
Stephen Miller is his Roy Cohn. Miller may not be a
lawyer, but he’s the near-Platonic ideal of the sort of character whom Trump
and his movement extol as
a “fighter”—blindly loyal, untroubled by laws or ethics, glowering with
hubristic contempt for political enemies and palpably delighting in using power
to impose his will on them. It took Trump nearly a decade to reach a place
where he could install someone like that to run his government without
meaningful political interference, but he finally reached it.
And now we expect him to change his mind?
I’ll believe it when I see it. The president has his Roy
Cohn at last, and so the rest of us are stuck with him too. That’s worth a 37 percent approval
rating to Trump all day long.