By Nick Catoggio
Friday, September 25, 2026
A provocative take from economist Noah
Smith: “The GOP had a golden opportunity to become a multiracial majority
party and destroy the left for two generations, and instead they turned things
over to the Claremont Nazis.”
I disagree. Mostly.
Faulting a party led by Donald Trump for “turning things
over” to fascists would be like faulting a party led by Bernie Sanders for
“turning things over” to socialists. There was no bait and switch; fascism was
always the plan.
Postliberals care only about empowering postliberalism,
and of course Trump cares only about empowering Trump. Neither gives a rip
about empowering the party to which they belong simply because they belong to
it. What would they gain by destroying the left for two generations if doing so
required them to subordinate their own priorities?
Ask the “Claremonsters” privately whether they’d prefer
to be governed by Democrats or by Republicans who have disowned postliberalism,
and they’ll take the Democrats every time, I suspect. After all, the worse the
centrist wing of the right fares at the polls, the more willing Republican
voters should be to give right-wing authoritarians a fresh hearing.
That was the lesson of the 2016 presidential primary. And
it’s been the point of the GOP “hostage crisis,” in which postliberals threaten
to boycott their party if they don’t get to call the tune on policy, ever
since.
Smith is wrong in a second way. For all their faults, and
there are many, postliberals aren’t
chiefly to blame for the GOP squandering its shot at a durable majority.
The war in Iran and its ruinous effect on oil prices are the main culprits in the
looming Republican wipeout, and it ain’t the Tucker Carlson wing of the
right that egged that on.
In fact, at last check, Tucker was calling on the
president’s Cabinet to seize power from him under the 25th Amendment,
alleging that Trump’s threats of a nuclear attack on Iran are evidence that
he’s non compos mentis. Given how unpopular Trump and his war have become, I’d guess that a multiracial majority
agrees with Carlson about that.
I do agree with Smith in a sense, though. There’s an
important area of policy in which Republicans held an electoral advantage in
2024, could have maintained that advantage by simply sticking with their
traditional position, and have now seen that advantage squandered by
postliberal fanaticism.
It’s not trade. The president’s tariffs have assuredly
cost the GOP votes, but Trump-style protectionism isn’t the traditional
Republican position.
It’s not intervening militarily overseas. That is
a traditional Republican position, but it sure isn’t advantageous at the polls
in a post-Iraq, post-Afghanistan world. Plus, as I said, the only thing
arguably fanatical about the postliberal position on war with Iran is the
vehemence with which they oppose it.
It’s not fiscal responsibility either. That too is a
traditional GOP position and Trump has done everything possible to destroy
voters’ trust in Republicans over it, but it’s hard to pin his profligacy on
postliberalism. Despite J.D. Vance’s best efforts to get people excited about paying moms not to work, the Trumpist base
has always been animated by culture war issues, not right-wing socialism.
Besides, some of the president’s most notorious spending
moves don’t jibe with the postliberal agenda. Cutting
Medicaid from working-class whites under the One Big Beautiful Bill while
demanding a mind-boggling $1.5 trillion budget for the Pentagon is not the stuff of
which America First dreams are made.
The issue where postliberals have blown it for the GOP is
immigration.
The albatross.
Paul LePage served two terms as governor of Maine and is
running for a House seat in that state this year. Sometimes described as “Trump
before Trump,” he proved that loose-cannon right-wing populism could win at the
polls before you-know-who entered politics. Like any politician in that vein,
he has made illegal immigration one of his favorite targets—although he could
be slippery on the subject in the past as his electoral needs
required.
This week he had a new complaint about immigrants. He
thinks we’re deporting the wrong ones.
“My son’s wife’s dad is here legally,” he said during a press conference. “But he’s being deported
because he came from a country that’s not liked by certain people in
Washington. That’s not right.” Noting that his in-law has a work permit, LePage
couldn’t understand why removing him is a higher priority than removing “people
in the gangs and criminals.” Of all the cases of leopards eating people’s faces since January 2025, few
faces have deserved to be eaten more than his.
Reading that, you might wonder whether LePage’s electoral
needs are once again making him slippery on immigration. He’s a blue-state
Republican running in a tough environment, so he’s moderating opportunistically
on a key issue before an election, right? It’s not just LePage, though: Some red-state
Republicans have also begun pivoting to the center on immigration.
The most buzzworthy example is Florida Rep. MarĂa Elvira
Salazar, who cut an ad last week in which she addressed Trump directly
and said, “Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have
gone too far. … The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in
2024 feel betrayed today.” Trump took 57 percent of the vote in her district two years ago.
He won the same share statewide in Kansas, yet both of
that state’s Republican senators complained
publicly a few days ago about ICE executing warrants in southwest Kansas
without coordinating with local law enforcement. One of them, Jerry Moran,
relayed reassurances from the Trump administration that only “individuals who
have been charged with criminal activities” have been targeted.
Moran isn’t on the ballot in November, but his colleague,
Roger Marshall, is. The latest major
poll of the state has him trailing his Democratic opponent by 2 points. In
Kansas.
God only knows what sort of internal polls he and Salazar
are seeing that have moved them to distance themselves from ICE. But if the GOP
drowns in a blue wave in November, particularly in normally red states with
large Hispanic populations like Florida and Texas, a major subplot in the aftermath
will be the political damage done by Trump’s “mass deportation” campaign. The
script writes itself: Postliberals wanted nonwhite immigrants expelled
indiscriminately, they sacrificed rudimentary professional standards to
get their wish, and their reward was a Democratic wipeout.
The White House knows the issue has become a liability,
too. Lately, ICE has largely—but by no means entirely—avoided the sort of goon-squad muscle-flexing that it demonstrated earlier this
year in Minneapolis, when I warned that its tactics were going
to discredit immigration enforcement. But it’s too late. Whereas 53 percent
of Americans trusted Trump on immigration in November 2024 versus 46 percent
who didn’t, by July that split had turned to 41-58. A Politico poll taken in August
found nearly a quarter of Trump’s own voters believe the “mass
deportation” effort has been too aggressive. Among those who described
themselves as “non-MAGA,” 31 percent said so.
It’s true that Trump campaigned on “mass deportation,”
not on deporting the criminals first. It’s also true that most Americans
nonetheless support deporting the criminals first, or even deporting only the criminals, despite the
president’s preferences. Immigration is like tariffs in that regard: Trump was
candid with the electorate about his intentions, they voted for him anyway, and
now they’ve discovered that his intentions are stupid or malicious. They’ll
have a chance in six weeks to do something about it. They look poised to take
it.
And so we might refine Noah Smith’s point this way: The
GOP had a golden opportunity to establish itself as the “responsible” party on
immigration for two generations, and instead it turned things over to Stephen
Miller. The icing on the cake will come if and when Trump deputizes ICE to harass Hispanics at the polls in November. That ought to
finish off whatever benefit of the doubt persuadable voters have been giving
him and his party about the virtues of beefed-up border enforcement.
What now?
Compromise?
My editor reminded me this morning that we’ve seen this
movie before. The GOP wins a momentous victory on a divisive issue, as Trump
did by besting Democrats on immigration in 2024; Republicans blow their
advantage by acting waaaaay too aggressively in the aftermath; and voters
punish them for it by spanking them at the polls.
That’s the story of abortion, of course. Restricting
abortion finally became legally feasible in 2022 when the Supreme Court
overturned Roe v. Wade. Despite strong public opposition to that
decision, a number of red states turned around and passed strict bans instead
of meeting the majority where it was with more modest regulations. Voters
reacted by turning out in force to defeat state referendums aimed at limiting abortion, then
squelched the expected Republican midterm wave by holding the GOP to a measly
nine-seat pickup in the House and a one-seat loss in the Senate.
A funny thing has happened since then, though. The two
parties have, sort of, compromised on the issue.
It’s the coldest of cold peaces, but the leadership on
both sides appears sufficiently satisfied with the status quo on abortion that
neither wants to disturb it. Trump was plainly spooked by the 2022 backlash and
has steered away from any federal crackdown; not only has the
FDA not moved to ban “abortion pills” like mifepristone from
the market, it approved a generic version of the drug last year. The easy
availability of the pills and the rise of “telemedicine” have made it simple for women to dodge state bans. The result,
per best estimates, is that abortions in the U.S. have increased slightly since the end of Roe.
Republicans don’t want to poke the bear by revisiting the
issue. And Democrats seemingly see little need to take it up, as issues like
affordability and the war are more fruitful electoral targets. If women remain
largely free to terminate their pregnancies at home and GOP lawmakers are
comfortable with that, there’s little reason for their opponents to pick a
fight.
Might we reach a similar compromise on immigration if the
blue wave crashes down on the GOP this fall?
The political stars would seem to have aligned. Democrats
lost the trust of voters in 2024 by being too soft on enforcement, and
Republicans appear to have lost the trust of voters in 2026 by being too hard
on it. The obvious consensus that would serve both parties is that aggressive
efforts should be made to deport criminals; restricting illegal entries at the
border should remain a high priority while removing noncriminal illegal
immigrants should be a low one; and ICE should be radically reformed to reprofessionalize
the force. In short, the left gives up on “open borders” and the right gives up
on “mass deportation.”
If nothing else, the emergence of Hispanics as a crucial
swing bloc in 2024 and 2026 might incentivize the two sides to move toward the
middle. Democrats discovered to their dismay two years ago that a Republican
could come within 5 points of winning that group despite running on
the strictest anti-immigrant platform in modern American history. Republicans
are about to discover to their own dismay that those gains can be incinerated in the span of one election cycle. One
would think the sensible play, then, is for the parties to align their
immigration platforms as much as possible with the preferences of Hispanics.
Per one recent poll of that group, “76 percent preferred a
candidate position calling for a bipartisan path to permanent legal status and
immigration reform, compared with 24 percent who preferred a
deportation-focused position.”
Easy peasy, no? Well….
Polarization.
One problem with my argument is that it’s perilous to
assume that Hispanics weigh immigration more in deciding how to vote than other
demographics do. (Although Trump’s version of ICE has certainly given them reason to do so.) When Mitt Romney was clobbered by Barack
Obama among that demographic in 2012, one of the key “lessons” GOP party
officials took from the drubbing was that Republicans would forever struggle
with Latinos unless they moderated on immigration. Even Sean Hannity got the memo.
Four years later, Trump barged into politics vowing to
build the wall and won his party’s nomination and the presidency. Eight years
after that, campaigning on “mass deportation,” he nearly won Hispanics outright
against Kamala Harris. Amnesty for illegal immigrants wasn’t the secret to
winning Latino votes after all, it appeared. The apparent secret, very simply,
is that Latinos are largely working-class and will be receptive to candidates
who appeal to that constituency. In 2012 that was Obama, not the
country-clubber Romney. In 2024 it was Trump, running against the high
inflation of the Biden presidency. And in 2026 it’s Democrats, running against
Trump’s failed promises on affordability.
Neither party needs to moderate on immigration to win
Latino votes, in other words. (Although it might help!) Just convince them that
you have better ideas for helping them stay ahead of the cost of living and
you’re in the game.
The other problem with an immigration compromise is that
partisan polarization will complicate the effort, as it always, always does. In
many ways the two parties’ respective ideological vanguards have never been closer on the proverbial horseshoe than they are right now,
but immigration is an exception. Abolishing ICE will be a priority for
progressive Democrats for years to come, partly because they believe the agency
has been deprofessionalized beyond repair and partly because its
postliberal chud-ification is Trump’s most singular administrative legacy. The
left wants to burn down the agency in the same way that it wants to burn down
the White House ballroom.
And for the opposite reasons, the right will refuse.
Rank-and-file Republicans will resist out of pure spite, to deny Democrats a
key concession after their midterm victory and to protect the steep political
costs Trump sunk into building the immigration force of his dreams. Committed
postliberals will have a more ideological basis for resisting: Agreeing to
abolish ICE and replace it with some kinder, gentler deportation squad would
amount to capitulating on their most cherished priority, ejecting
nonwhite undesirables from the United States.
Bad enough that their opponents would ask them to
renounce “mass deportation” and admit that wielding state power ruthlessly
against their cultural enemies was a mistake. But outright abolition of the
goon squad is tantamount to asking them to repudiate postliberalism itself.
They won’t do it, and they won’t tolerate Republican
lawmakers doing it. To repeat my point from earlier, postliberals don’t care a
fig for their party’s fortunes relative to their own cultural priorities.
They’ll happily punish GOP lawmakers for moving toward the middle on
immigration by primarying them and/or boycotting general elections, even if
that produces the sort of Democratic landslide that, ironically, would make
liberal immigration policies more feasible. Radicals play the long game: If the
only way to convince the wider electorate that they’re right is to let their
enemy win and wait for a public backlash to that enemy’s policies, they’ll do
that.
But this is all pie in the sky. Trump surely won’t be so
chastened by a midterm drubbing that he’ll agree to compromise with Democrats
on immigration, especially if doing so would require him to admit error on ICE.
J.D. Vance, the party’s presumptive nominee, seems even less likely to support
doing so given that he’s a postliberal ideologue himself and is palpably
anxious about keeping
that faction in his corner in the next primary. And if Vance did feel moved
to compromise, that’s the sort of thing that might finally bring
Tucker Carlson off the sidelines to provide a “real” America First option
in the 2028 race.
In scolding Republicans for not maneuvering on policy to
consolidate the coalition they built in 2024, Noah Smith is treating a kulturkampf
as politics as usual. To the “Claremont Nazis,” there’s no point in having a
democratic majority if holding it means having to give up on Nazism. On the
contrary, as we saw on January 6 and are likely to see again before long,
they’ll give up on democracy first.