By Nick Catoggio
Friday, July 17, 2026
Democracy is the least bad form of government, which is
to say that its flaws are less oppressive than any other’s.
In an autocracy, public officials aren’t allowed to call
the ruler stupid even when it’s true. Far better is democracy, where public
officials need only avoid calling the public itself stupid.
Even when it’s true.
Modern America is a hybrid of the two. The Republican
Party is an autocracy, and its members
behave accordingly whenever the subject of the ruler’s idiocy is
broached. Whereas the Democratic Party remains free to notice and comment on
his idiocy—although not, of course, the idiocy of the people themselves.
“People
aren’t stupid,” Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin dutifully declared after the
president delivered a televised speech last night about foreign influence in
the 2020 presidential campaign. Her point was that voters won’t forget about an
endless, aimless war in Iran and the spike it’s caused in gas prices just
because Donald Trump is dangling a shiny object in front of them. And I suppose
that’s true.
But “people aren’t stupid” is a hell of a claim to make
about America in 2026.
For instance: A few days ago the House overwhelmingly
passed a bill that would make daylight saving time permanent. That’s
objectively stupid for all the reasons Josh Barro lists here. It was tried before with disastrous results; it
ignores obvious trade-offs, like pushing sunrise to 8:30 a.m. in the winter;
and it’s a gross overreaction to the burden of having to adjust clocks twice a
year, something that most digital technology does automatically.
Stupid. But popular!
Another example: On Wednesday, while preparing for an air
show in Florida, a Blue Angels pilot buzzed the crowd on a beach in Pensacola
by descending to an altitude of a few dozen feet while banking at a nearly
90-degree angle. That triggered a safety review, as the altitude was “lower than standard profiles”; any error, like a bird
strike to the engine, could have caused mass death. And if it had, it wouldn’t
be the first time that a military daredevil had needlessly killed a bunch of people
while showing off on what should have been a routine flight.
But if you know how
Pete Hegseth’s Pentagon operates, you can guess what happened next. “No
reprimands. No firings. No problem. That’s the sound of Freedom!”, acting Navy
Secretary Hung Cao tweeted alongside a video of the incident. Hegseth
himself snarked that “the flyovers will continue until morale
improves,” to which one person replied—not
implausibly—“someday this tweet is going to be evidence in court.”
The people who lead our “High-T
Department of War” are maliciously reckless morons, so bent on creating a
culture of impunity that they’re willing to excuse aggressive idiocy purely
because it’s aggressive. This episode isn’t the only reminder they’ve had
lately that bad things happen when you decide that caution and prudence
are for wimps, but the essence of stupidity is failing to learn lessons despite
being taught over and over. That’s our military leadership.
And that’s our electorate, which failed to learn an
obvious lesson the first time around about what sort of bad things might happen
when you trust Donald Trump with power.
I’m less confident than Elissa Slotkin is that “people
aren’t stupid” enough to fall for the president’s latest scheme to manufacture
a pretext to interfere in November’s election. But I also don’t think trying to
fool the rubes was the reason he spoke on Thursday evening.
An IQ gut check.
The crux of his speech was that the U.S. had raw intelligence
in 2020 that China hoped to interfere in that year’s presidential election. The
Chinese obtained American voter rolls, Trump claimed, and supposedly intended
to “manufacture illegal ballots for Joe Biden” to that end. On top of that,
more than a quarter-million illegal immigrants are supposedly registered to
vote right now in swing states. And America’s cybersecurity around voting
machines is alarmingly weak, he noted.
The only possible conclusion, the president went on to
say, is that, “These disclosures reveal an election system so broken and
vulnerable that no one can possibly defend it.”
Let’s start with China. If they have America’s voter
rolls, it’s no great feat of espionage: The rolls are publicly available to anyone who wants them. And the
“ballots for Biden” idea appears to be a deliberate or, well, stupid misreading of the intelligence, which apparently came from
a single source who got the information second-hand and was viewed skeptically
by some intelligence officials. The actual claim was that the Chinese were
planning to manufacture fake driver’s licenses that could be used to cast tens
of thousands of mail-in ballots.
But they didn’t. There’s no evidence that
fake ballots were created or cast. Even Trump didn’t say so, ultimately going
no further than to accuse the Chinese of having conducted an influence
operation—the sort of thing that happens all the time, as J.D.
Vance admitted two days ago—aimed at “undermining domestic confidence in
the U.S. president.”
So here’s our first gut-check on public stupidity. If
what China did is so outrageous, the public should now expect the president to
take harsh official action against it, no? Diplomatic penalties, sanctions,
maybe even war: Everything’s on the table when you meddle with the American
people’s sovereignty.
If Trump doesn’t act—if he continues to sound like
a 13-year-old girl talking about Taylor Swift when he talks about Xi Jinping—Americans should draw a pretty firm
conclusion from that about how seriously to take his accusations, one would
think.
Illegal immigrants voting en masse is another longtime
hobby horse of the president’s, dating back to when he lost the popular vote to
Hillary Clinton in 2016 and needed a way to explain it aside from the obvious. No one
knows where he got last night’s figure of 278,000 illegals supposedly being
registered in battlegrounds, though; officials from one of the states he named,
Nevada, claimed after the speech that just 138 voters out of 2.1 million failed to provide either a
driver’s license or Social Security number when they registered.
Another IQ gut-check, then: If voting by illegal
immigrants is a widespread problem in America, the Todd Blanche/Kash Patel
Justice Department should be spitting out indictments around the clock. The
department has charged people for that crime, and you’d better believe they’re looking for more, yet the numbers remain small.
What should Americans deduce from the fact that so few prosecutions have
resulted?
As for cybersecurity around elections, Trump is doubtless
right that there are holes that need plugging. Gut-check No. 3e: How sincere
are his concerns considering that he hollowed out the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security
Agency, purged the Election Assistance Commission, and had the DOJ back way off of its usual measures to protect an upcoming
federal election?
We’re not done. If there was evidence of Chinese
shenanigans before the election in 2020, why is John Ratcliffe still head of
the CIA this evening? Ratcliffe was the director of national intelligence at
the time; it was his job to make sure that the dreaded “deep state” wasn’t
concealing information from then-President Trump. Evidently he failed in that
duty, per Trump learning only years later that China had been up to no good.
When is Ratcliffe being fired?
If the dastardly duo of Chinese spies and
illegal-immigrant voters was clever enough to thwart Trump’s reelection in
2020, when he and his team were in charge of the government, why weren’t they
clever enough to thwart it when the Biden administration was in charge in 2024?
It’s very strange, as GOP Rep. Thomas
Massie observed, that Republicans continue to win election after election
in a system that’s supposedly rotten with fraud and foreign plots contrived to
block them from power.
After five years of paranoia and propaganda, the
president has so little credibility on this subject that even friendly news
outlets had to tread lightly when reporting on the speech. Fox News made a
point of noting on the air that it couldn’t
vouch for the accuracy of Trump’s claims, and it had 787.5 million reasons to do so. Bari Weiss’ CBS News opened
its coverage by flatly acknowledging that “much of what the president had said on this topic [in the past]
has been false.” Other networks declined to carry the speech altogether,
naturally drawing fascist threats about revoking
their broadcast licenses as punishment.
In the same way that no one took Trump seriously when he
suddenly announced that America would be charging
a 20 percent toll on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, no one with more than
a room-temperature IQ takes him seriously when he starts babbling about
election fraud. He’s so prone to insane lies about election conspiracies that
for news networks merely to transmit his words on the topic, live and
unedited, is to invite a grave risk of defamation suits.
Yet the fact remains that Americans were stupid
enough to reelect him. Why wouldn’t they, or at least a meaningful number of
them, also be stupid enough to swallow this latest sore-loser nonsense?
Many will. But getting people to believe that a new
election conspiracy is afoot wasn’t really the purpose of his speech, I think.
Influence and interference.
Last night’s remarks were the electoral equivalent of the
address Trump made on February 28, after bombs had begun falling on
Iran. The president had done next to nothing before the war to prepare
Americans for the conflict and nothing at all to gain Congress’ approval in
advance, and so the point of that speech wasn’t “here’s what we need to do and
I’d like your support.” If it had been, he would have delivered it before the
war began.
The point was “here’s what I’m doing, just FYI.” It was a
bare-minimum check-the-box simulacrum of democratic accountability about a
course of action he intended to pursue whether Americans liked it or not.
That was also the point yesterday. As our own Steve
Hayes put it, “The important thing isn’t the speech, it’s what the speech
is meant to set up.” The president intends to do something to tamper with the
midterm election, just FYI, and last night was his check-the-box gesture of
faux-accountability to justify it preemptively.
And he’s going to do it whether Americans like it or not.
That may explain the most curious thing about his
remarks, the fact that he didn’t resort to his usual wild 2020 claims about
voting machines being hacked or ballot-harvesting “mules” delivering fake votes
for Biden en masse. Trump was uncharacteristically circumspect, implying that the
outcome of the election was suspect due to Chinese scheming and
illegal-immigrant chicanery but never asserting it. Even some of his favorite
“rigged election” instigators toned
things down for the event. How come?
I doubt that he did it at the behest of members of his
party. They were reportedly “scared sh-tless” before the speech that he would veer
off-script and ad-lib his way into a televised fever dream they’d spend the
next four months having to defend (as autocracy requires!), but Trump isn’t one
to ease off the paranoia just because doing so would help candidates from his
party. Ask Republicans in Georgia about that.
I doubt, too, that his goal was to pressure Senate
Republicans into finally passing the SAVE America Act, his obsession for most
of this year. He ended the speech by calling on them to do so, but passing that
bill would require eliminating the filibuster, and Majority Leader John Thune
and others have explained to him many times that the votes aren’t there.
Even if it did pass, it couldn’t be implemented before November. And the
legislation wouldn’t address some of Trump’s core complaints in the speech,
like China conducting an influence campaign to damage his image.
He didn’t give the speech because he’s trying to get the
SAVE America Act passed. He gave it because he needs to rationalize what he
intends to do after the SAVE America Act doesn’t pass.
The president himself might not know yet what the plan
is. Maybe he’ll try to extort state election officials into doing his bidding
by threatening to charge
them criminally if they don’t. Maybe he’ll dispatch the
National Guard and ICE to polling places in nonwhite districts to try to
intimidate voters. Maybe he’ll send agents to seize
ballot boxes in swing counties where the GOP ends up having a rough night.
Or maybe he’ll issue an order claiming the authority to compel states to
implement parts of the SAVE America Act—namely, voter ID and a ban on mail-in
ballots—as a matter of executive power.
That’s not hypothetical. According to the Washington Post, a 17-page draft order to that
effect has already been prepared by “activists” who are in touch with the White
House. The draft reportedly “claims China interfered in the 2020 election as a
basis to declare a national emergency that would unlock extraordinary
presidential power over voting.” The Post published that scoop in
February; now, five months later, here we are.
That’s why the president surprisingly stuck to the
available “facts” last night instead of indulging in his usual wild theories, I
suspect: He’s planning to take legal action on the election and saw the speech
as a way to establish an evidentiary predicate for it. Whatever orders he ends
up issuing will be challenged in court, and when they are, it will help his
case that those orders aren’t based on something obviously insane about
Venezuelan communists changing votes in Pennsylvania or whatever.
Sam Stein drew the correct, and ironic, lesson in a piece
for The Bulwark this morning. The speech was Trump’s own version of a
foreign influence campaign aimed at undermining public trust in U.S. elections.
Postliberals abroad have connived for ages to try to weaken Americans’ faith in
their nation, but it took a homegrown version with a keener sense of how stupid
the people are to succeed at it. “No regime, no spies, no saboteurs have yet
matched the damage that America’s own president did tonight,” The Atlantic’s
Tom Nichols observed after Trump’s remarks.
The key point, though, is that it’s an influence campaign
only for the moment. The president won’t content himself with trying to shape
public opinion about the coming midterm election and then resolve to take his
lumps on election night. This will end up as an interference campaign,
in which a malign actor tampers directly with the outcome. And it was destined
to become one from the moment the certainly-not-stupid American electorate
reelected him in 2024.
The Trump era will be remembered as a period of supreme,
grotesque, relentless demoralization, in which the person trusted with leading
the United States did everything he feasibly could to destroy respect for the country even among its own
citizens. Calling any American institution “so broken and vulnerable that no
one can possibly defend it” is Trumpism at 100 percent purity. When someone
tells you that his speech was a calculated “distraction” designed to steer
public attention away from Iran or gas prices, they’re telling you that they
still haven’t grasped that yet. The demoralization is the point. There’s
nothing postliberals desire more.