By Nick Catoggio
Wednesday, August 12,2026
Last night was a rough one at the polls for socialists.
In both parties.
The socialist in chief is forever boasting about the power of
his endorsements, but he took an embarrassing “L” in one major race and scored
an ominously underwhelming victory in another. The defeat came courtesy of
former pillow maven Mike Lindell, who stepped down as CEO of his company last week to focus on
becoming governor of Minnesota. Which is a bit like a middle-aged accountant
quitting his job to focus on trying out for the NFL.
Lindell is one of Trumpworld’s most hallucinatory “rigged
election” cranks and Minnesota is a reliably blue state, especially in a
national environment as anti-Republican as the present one. His realistic
best-case scenario was winning his party’s nomination before getting
annihilated in the general election; in the end, GOP primary voters chose to
put him out of his misery early, handing him a double-digit defeat. “Republican gubernatorial nominee
Mike Lindell” is beneath the dignity of even the deeply undignified modern
right, it seems.
The candidate is processing the people’s verdict just
as you’d expect.
The president had better luck in South Carolina, where
Sen. Darline Graham “won” the race to replace her late brother as the GOP’s
nominee for Senate this fall. But as wins go, it wasn’t much of one: Despite
Trump’s backing and public sympathy for the Graham family, she took less than 33 percent against a crowded field of
conservatives that included former Gov. Mark Sanford, Rep. Russell Fry, and
Rep. Ralph Norman, whom she’ll face in a runoff in two weeks.
Most of the two-thirds of Republicans who couldn’t bring
themselves to support Graham are likely to favor Norman in the next round, one
would think. (“The long and short of it, she’s got a pretty low ceiling,” one
operative told Politico before the vote.) If she loses, it’ll be
the second time in two months that a Trump endorsee was
defeated in a statewide primary runoff in South Carolina—and the second time in
August alone that a Trump endorsee was beaten in a key primary in the deep-red South.
I’m too much of a pessimist to believe that the president
has “lost his touch” or that Republican voters have begun to practice quality
control toward weak candidates after 10 years of brainworm “slopulism.” But if
you want to tell yourself a story about the fading influence of a very old, very unpopular president based on the primary results of late, it isn’t hard.
The most one can say for Trump’s defeats last night is
that both were inconsequential. Republicans were doomed in Minnesota this fall
no matter whom they nominated, especially against an opponent as formidable as Amy Klobuchar. And Ralph Norman will serve the president’s
agenda in the Senate as faithfully as Darline Graham will.
The truly consequential defeat on Tuesday was inflicted
on left-wing socialists in Wisconsin, where progressive Francesca Hong
shockingly blew a 20-point lead in polling over David Crowley, a guy who dropped out of the race a month ago before
re-entering at the Democratic establishment’s behest. Combine that with Abdul
El-Sayed’s unexpectedly
narrow victory in last week’s Senate primary in Michigan, and we now have a
clear trend of “normie” Democratic voters successfully—or almost successfully,
in El-Sayed’s case—practicing quality control against questionably electable
far-left candidates in important Midwestern battlegrounds.
Hong’s defeat is a heavy blow to the supposedly ascendant
Democratic Socialists of America. Isn’t it?
Winning by losing.
Hong spent most of the race dishing out boilerplate
left-wing economic populism about universal healthcare and taxing the rich. What turned her
into a national figure was coverage of her recently resurfaced musings on
abolishing prisons, canceling Thanksgiving, and the “proximity to whiteness” that her biracial son has given
her—positions so toxic that even Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez glibly dismissed
them on grounds that “Woke
1 was crazy.”
The candidate wasn’t smooth about cleaning up after
herself, either. Asked recently by CNN whether she still holds the same views
on Thanksgiving, Hong equivocated before lamenting,“Thanksgiving is also a time
that’s incredibly painful for many people in our communities.”
Essentially, her “Woke 2” campaign against oligarchy and
the high cost of living was rebranded in the home stretch as a “Woke 1”
campaign of cultural radicalism. And Wisconsin Democrats weren’t going to
gamble their party’s chances in a tough gubernatorial race, with a Trumpist election denier waiting on the other side, on a
candidate like that. Woke 1 was crazy, they seemed to say last night—and
“crazy” wasn’t worth the risk in a general election.
Is it really a loss for the DSA, though, that its banner
won’t be carried this fall by someone who’s already become a laughingstock for
her “Woke 1” positions?
Consider that Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders, the
two most prominent socialists in the country, declined to endorse Hong. (Sen. Elizabeth Warren
dismissively said “I don’t know her” when asked if she’d support the
Wisconsinite.) Sources close to Sanders whispered to Politico that “Hong
is less vetted and not as sharp on some of her messaging than other
candidates,” in the publication’s words, and noted that the senator didn’t want
to be involved in another electoral fiasco after the Graham
Platner mess.
“Francesca Hong’s loss is the best imaginable result for
progressives, because this was the left-wing Doug Mastriano: a completely
unelectable candidate with no ability to fundraise,” pollster Lakshya
Jain observed last night. Mastriano was such a weak, fringy opponent that
Democrats ended up spending money to help him win Pennsylvania’s Republican gubernatorial primary in
2022; the same happened in reverse this year in Wisconsin, with right-wing
groups spending money to help Hong. Had she prevailed yesterday,
democratic socialists would have been staring down the barrel of a brutal “DSA
candidate fumbles winnable swing state to ‘Stop the Steal’ freak” headline in
November, the last thing they need as they try to gain influence within their
party. They’ve now been spared that.
They’ve also been spared an inevitable national
Republican ad campaign aimed at tying all Democratic candidates—but especially
progressives—to Hong’s nuttery. Before Tuesday, I saw theories kicking around
online that it would be good for other DSA-adjacent candidates like El-Sayed if
she won her primary because she’d end up as a lightning rod or “heat shield”
for them from right-wing criticism. That strikes me as far-fetched: More likely
is that “socialists hate Thanksgiving” talking points would have seeped into
other races, scaring off undecideds who already suspect “Woke 2” Democrats of
remaining ardently “Woke 1” behind closed doors.
I’m particularly skeptical of the “heat shield” logic
with respect to El-Sayed, an out-of-central casting bogeyman for nationalists by dint of
his radicalism, his brashness, and his Muslim faith. He’s the villain that
Republicans thought they were getting in
Zohran Mamdani, whose geniality and outreach to Trump has made him harder
for them to hate. Hong’s clownishness would not have obscured El-Sayed’s
villainy in Republican messaging this fall.
Besides, El-Sayed has plenty of “Woke 1” culture-war clownishness in his own Very Online archives for the GOP to
exploit. Among other things that CNN recently discovered after sifting through his old
YouTube videos (many of which have now been quietly deleted) is an episode in
which he “questioned whether football could be ‘ethical’ or ‘safe’ and linked
the sport’s ‘ethos’ to narratives used to justify slavery and westward
expansion.” This guy is running in Michigan.
All told, a Hong victory in the primary would have gained
the DSA little or nothing and probably cost it much. It won by losing. And
then, across the border in Minnesota, it won by winning: Peggy Flanagan, the
state’s lieutenant governor and a staunch progressive endorsed by Sanders, crushed centrist Rep. Angie Craig in
the Democratic primary for Senate by nearly 20 points. Flanagan will cruise to victory again
in November, assuring the far left of having a fellow traveler in that seat.
Shedding the hated “Woke 1” socialists while advancing
the “Woke 2” strain seems like a decent outcome for the DSA to me. But it
leaves us with two questions. How the hell did Francesca Hong blow a 20-point
lead, anyway? And why did she fall short in her race while El-Sayed managed to
hang on in his?
Woke 2 versus Woke 1.
The irresistible answer to the first question is another
question. Did she ever really have a 20-point lead in this race?
Yeah, yeah, I know what the polls said. But the polls also said that El-Sayed
led Rep. Haley Stevens by something like 15 points in Michigan before he eked out a
1-point victory. The polls say a lot of things. The fact that they’ve now
missed the outcome in two key Midwestern Democratic primaries by Grand
Canyon-sized margins means there’s obviously some sort of systemic methodological
error afoot.
The most likely culprit is nonresponse bias. In surveying
Wisconsin and Michigan, pollsters may have gotten high response rates from
stereotypical pro-Hong and pro-El-Sayed progressives—white, college-educated,
politically engaged, and very eager to share their opinions. Whereas
stereotypical pro-Crowley and pro-Stevens normies—nonwhite, less educated, too
busy with work and life to sit through political surveys—were less likely to
pick up the phone. The result: Wildly mistaken blowout forecasts in both races.
One wonders whether El-Sayed would have pulled it out in
Michigan if the polling there hadn’t signaled to Stevens supporters that there
was really no point in bothering to turn out for her.
There’s another possibility, though: Maybe last night’s
upset was less a matter of methodological error than sharp movement in the race
after the final polls were taken.
There was a lot going in the Wisconsin primary in
the home stretch. Hong was getting blown up in the media over her “Woke 1” pensees;
meanwhile, Crowley was back in the race after two other Democratic candidates
dropped out, elevating him as the last best hope of Thanksgiving enthusiasts.
And he got a huge assist from Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who joined him on a last-minute barnstorming tour of the state to try to save
the party from a looming electoral disaster. Evers pulled no punches on the
trail too, warning Democratic voters frankly that Hong would probably
lose to the GOP this fall.
Undecideds and late-deciders were taking all of this in.
Then El-Sayed won his primary while conspicuously underperforming his polling,
further spooking Democrats who worry about the electability of
socialist candidates. On the day after the Michigan race, former Biden
operative Dan Kanninen read the tea leaves in Wisconsin and
presciently explained why he thought Hong’s grip on the race wasn’t as tight as
the polls suggested. Beat for beat, the reasoning he laid out anticipated what
happened last night.
In the end, as Semafor’s Dave
Weigel noted, neither Hong nor El-Sayed underperformed expectations. She
received more than 300,000 votes, which would have won any other Wisconsin
gubernatorial primary this century. He received nearly 750,000, a landslide
total by the standards of Michigan’s 2018 primary. Hong lost, and El-Sayed
nearly lost, because “pollsters are just not catching these armies of quieter
Dems (and some crossover indies) cannonballing into the polling booth,” as
Weigel put it. The normies in the party showed up in unexpected droves to try
to do quality control.
Why didn’t both candidates lose, though? What was the
secret sauce that got El-Sayed over the hump but not Hong?
Any answer to that will necessarily be speculative, but
there are some important differences between the two. One, as I alluded to
earlier, involves endorsements. The same triumvirate of Sanders, Warren, and
Ocasio-Cortez that withheld support from Hong in Wisconsin backed El-Sayed in
Michigan, which is to say that the progressive movement was invested in his
success to a degree that it wasn’t in hers. Even if those endorsements were
only marginally useful in drumming up extra turnout for him, margins were everything
in these two races. El-Sayed ended up winning by fewer than 16,000 votes; Hong
ended up losing by fewer than 4,000 to the Evers-endorsed Crowley.
Another difference is demographics. Michigan has a small
but influential bloc of Arab and Muslim voters, and El-Sayed cleaned up with them, taking nearly 80 percent of
the vote in Dearborn and earning more ballots there than Kamala Harris did in
the 2024 presidential election. Maybe that’s due to his outspoken criticism of
Israel, maybe it’s due to his historic significance as a potential U.S. senator
who’s both Arab and Muslim himself, maybe a bit of both. But dominating with
that constituency may have been decisive to his statewide margin. Hong didn’t
have the same advantage.
A third is simple charisma. El-Sayed is sufficiently
talented as a speaker that none other than Bill Clinton allegedly encouraged him to run for office someday after listening to
his commencement address at the University of Michigan in 2007. He’s also a
“fighter” by temperament in the obnoxious populist sense of the term:
Passionate about his causes and disdainful of his opponents, he scratches an
itch for combativeness that’s common among his party’s grassroots after nearly
two years of being steamrolled by Trump.
Hong is none of that. She’s soft-spoken, seemed unsure of
herself in interviews, and lacked the native belligerence that modern populists
crave. In the age of Trump, if you’re going to come for Thanksgiving, come
hard.
Ultimately, though, I think the key difference is that
El-Sayed gave Democratic voters a reason to look past any discomfort they may
have felt about his radicalism, whereas Hong never did.
That was also true in Minnesota of Peggy Flanagan, a
leftist but a known political quantity. “Flanagan and Hong were both the
progressive candidates in their race, but Flanagan [is] also very much an
‘establishment’ figure (the incumbent [lieutenant governor]!) who obviously
everyone is broadly comfortable with,” Matt
Yglesias noted. In El-Sayed’s case, I suspect, Democrats got comfortable
with his radicalism because it was mostly directed at a target toward which they too feel hostile: Israel and pro-Israel lobbying
outfits like AIPAC.
Turning a Democratic primary in 2026 into a de facto
referendum on a single issue is potentially a good strategy, depending on the
issue. A for-or-against referendum on Israel when you’re arguing the “against”
position? Good strategy. Opposing Israel is a key plank of “Woke 2” and
liberals are increasingly comfortable with that.
Turning it into a for-or-against referendum on
Thanksgiving when you’re arguing “against” for whatever insane reason? Not so
good. That’s “Woke 1.” And Woke 1, as we’ve learned, was crazy.
If there’s a lesson from the varying results for
progressives in Michigan and Wisconsin, then, I suspect it’s that Democrats
will tolerate radicalism provided that it directionally reflects their own
preferences. Whether El-Sayed can stay on the right side of that calculus as “Woke 1” skeletons come tumbling out of his closet remains
to be seen.