By Nick Catoggio
Wednesday, October 14, 2026
One way to understand the home stretch of the midterm
campaign is as an experiment to see how much s--t Reaganite conservatives are
willing to eat in the name of partisanship.
For example: The core conviction of anti-anti-Trump
Republicans who’ve hung on through 10 years of postliberal depravity is that
the party is bigger than the man. Politics is about the team, they’ll
tell you, echoing the soon-to-be
former Mrs. Ken Paxton. Whatever qualms one might have about the guy with
the 37.5 percent approval rating, it’s the team that’s on the
ballot this fall, not Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, the president is on the campaign trail telling
everyone who’ll listen to behave as though he’s on the ballot.
And he’s right. Trump is the team, as
anti-anti-Trumpers well understand but refuse to admit. From its leadership to
its populist base, the GOP has become a party that admires and aspires to
autocracy. With occasional exceptions, congressional Republicans are a “team”
the way, say, Vladimir Putin’s party in Russia is a “team.”
Another example: Last week the vice president was asked
how he defines socialism. “Socialism is about prioritizing workers” in theory, J.D.
Vance replied, but “I don’t know what the term means anymore [to the
American left]. I think in reality, what it actually means in the American
context, is that you want to replace American workers with foreign workers, and
you want boys to play in girls’ sports.”
There’s a reason Vance didn’t want to delve too deeply
into what socialism is and isn’t. Marxists traditionally define it as the
people, in the form of the state, gaining ownership of the means of production
from capital. Can you guess why the vice president might be reluctant to define it that way?
A more colloquial notion of socialism treats it as a
byword for welfare entitlements. If the state is redistributing taxpayer
revenue to politically favored constituencies in the form of financial
benefits, that’s socialism. Care to theorize why Vance might not like that definition either?
Even his point about “replacing” American workers with
foreign workers contradicts libertarian-flavored Reaganite orthodoxy about the
virtues of legal immigration. A bigger U.S. population means more businesses
started, more job opportunities created, and more prosperity for all. Vance and
his postliberal cohort are willing to sacrifice some unspecified share of that
prosperity to guarantee the social preeminence of America’s white majority.
Put it all together and what the Trump administration is
offering is what we might call, uh, nationalist socialism, a tasty turd
sandwich for partisan conservatives with Election Day less than three weeks
away. And so many members of the GOP “team” have already swallowed it that,
when you ask Americans whether the government should be able to take a stake in
U.S. companies at the president’s discretion, Republicans are now more
likely than Democrats to agree.
Even the socially conservative voters who’ve formed the
“values” pillar of the Reaganite coalition for the past 50 years have gotten
the shaft recently. At a rally on Monday, Trump spent a few moments
rhapsodizing about Ohio Sen. Jon Husted’s large
hands and powerful manly glutes. Of all the ways in which the president has
disappointed the right since January 2025, who could have guessed that he’d
also eventually come out as bi?
Reaganites have a lot to feel demoralized about. But they
should feel enraged about what’s happening in Ukraine.
Without warning.
Kyiv is in the midst of a blow-up
with the White House over its attacks on Russian oil refineries.
The president wants American voters to believe that those
strikes, not his idiotic war in Iran, are principally responsible for expensive fuel and rising inflation. So he’s demanding that
Ukraine stop targeting the refineries immediately—while not demanding
that Russia stop targeting Ukrainian energy facilities like power plants in
return.
Instead the White House has proposed a ceasefire in which
only refineries are off-limits to the two sides, a convenient compromise
for Moscow given that Ukraine has exactly one refinery and it hasn’t functioned since 2022.
Trump is doing what he usually does when he feels anxious about his power
slipping, in other words: He’s picking on an ally whom he feels comfortable
bullying rather than confronting a major power over whom he has less leverage.
On that note, two curious things have happened to the
Ukrainian war effort in the past 48 hours. Kyiv has suddenly stopped
receiving intelligence from its “partners” alerting it when Russian
missiles are inbound. And the Starlink satellite system on which its military
heavily relies for operations has begun to fail above certain speeds needed for drone
operations.
Coincidentally, Trump envoys Jared Kushner and
Steve Witkoff allegedly warned the Ukrainians last week that the U.S. might stop sharing intelligence if they didn’t stop bombing
Russia’s refineries. Also coincidentally, Starlink is a subsidiary of
SpaceX, the company led by Trump crony and GOP mega-mega-mega donor Elon Musk.
Musk said a few days ago that, by continuing to hit Russian refineries,
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “has
gone too far.”
Could this be as bad as it looks? Have America’s two most
powerful postliberals spitefully conspired to sabotage Ukraine’s defense,
knowing how much needless death will result?
Maybe not. On Wednesday, the New York Times reported that it’s not unheard of for
U.S. intelligence to fail to detect the launch of some types of Russian
missiles. Ukraine’s own foreign minister said information is still being shared
between our country and theirs and attributed the lack of warnings about
inbound missiles to “a special type of weaponry which was used by the Russian
side.” Trump himself claimed yesterday that cooperation on intelligence is
going.
However: Both men have motives to lie about this, the
president because he doesn’t want Americans to know what he’s up to and the
foreign minister because he doesn’t want to further antagonize the White House.
(Team Trump changed its mind after cutting off intelligence to Kyiv
once before, you might recall.) And the Times notes that, while it’s not
unusual for the U.S. to fail to spot a Russian missile launch, it is
unusual for it to happen two nights in a row—as was the case on Monday and
Tuesday.
That suggests the intelligence was deliberately withheld.
Zelensky himself seems to think so, tweeting repeatedly over the past few days
about the lack of missile warnings from allies in order to call global
attention to what’s going on.
Throttling Starlink.
The Ukrainians also see foul play in Starlink’s
conveniently timed “glitch” and they aren’t being coy about it. “Obviously,
this action cannot be a coincidence and is associated with the current
political situation,” one Zelensky adviser observed. Another former adviser to the defense ministry speculated
that “SpaceX likely took these measures at the request of the Trump
administration.” Poland’s foreign minister, Radosław
Sikorski, tweeted directly at Musk: “Are you playing politics with your
products again? As your European customers, we are watching you.”
A Ukrainian official told the Financial Times that “logistics at the frontline and
middle strikes are badly limited” due to the issues with Starlink and that,
once again, Ukraine received no warning of what was coming. Bear in mind that
Starlink doesn’t operate above Russia, so throttling the service isn’t designed
to hobble Ukraine’s ability to target sites inside the country like refineries.
It’s designed to hobble operations inside
Ukraine itself—that is, Ukrainians’ ability to defend their own territory.
In a tweet on Wednesday, Musk appeared to blame
Trump and the Pentagon for any problem with the system.
The icing on the cake is that Ukraine has actually
honored Trump’s moronic, lopsided “energy ceasefire” over the last two days. It
hasn’t struck any Russian refineries even though Moscow has continued targeting
Ukrainian electrical power, blacking
out the capital last night. “Russia has never before shown such
ostentatious disrespect toward the United States,” Zelensky tweeted
of Moscow’s defiance, appealing to Trump’s vanity as Putin makes a mockery of
his ceasefire. “Peace can only come through strength, and we ask America to
remember this principle of Reagan’s,” he pleaded.
To all appearances, the United States is punishing
Ukraine for refusing to participate in a Trumpist pre-midterm PR stunt about
why gas is expensive by kneecapping its ability to resist the Russian war
machine. Which, in a way, means this relationship has come full circle: The
president’s most notorious encounter with Zelensky during his first term also
involved withholding U.S. military aid if Ukraine didn’t help him win an
election, after all.
“If Trump had been running [the] United States back in
1939, I think he would have been Hitler’s ally,” an intelligence source told The
Economist about the state of play in Kyiv. “And on the site of the
Warsaw Ghetto, Witkoff and Kushner would have built a posh hotel complex.”
That’s the team that Reaganite partisan conservatives, the cheapest dates and
biggest suckers in politics, have chosen to remain part of.
Trumpism: A case study.
One thing to say about this national disgrace is how it
ties together so many different strands of Trumpism.
There’s the president’s undying postliberal favoritism
toward Russia, of course, immune as ever from any information that might
challenge it. When critics reminded him this week that our friends in Moscow
(and Beijing) are on the other side of America’s war with Iran, he shrugged.
“I see so many comments from the Radical Left Morons and Lunatics that China
and Russia are helping the ‘wonderful’ Islamic Republic of Iran,” he wrote. “If they are, it’s at a very low level, but I don’t
believe they are at all. They have too much to lose, and we would know about
it, and know about it very fast!”
They have nothing to lose by helping Iran. The president
will never confront Russia. “Some of Trump’s closest outside advisers have
privately wondered what Putin has done to so thoroughly enthrall the
president,” The Atlantic reported this week. “Trump’s respect
for the Russian leader appears undiminished despite the humiliating struggles
Putin has faced during the Ukraine invasion.” For Putin, aiding Iran—and
flouting the “energy ceasefire” that the White House demanded in Ukraine—are
costless exercises.
Sabotaging Ukraine’s defense also puts the White House on
the wrong side of U.S. popular opinion, another Trumpist
specialty in his second term. A new YouGov
survey asked Americans whether they sympathize more with Ukraine or with
Russia; the split went 57-4, with the president’s own party at 46-6. Other
polling from earlier this year showed just a third of the American public
felt confident that Trump will make good decisions about the war versus
two-thirds who doubt it. Many Republicans have also lost faith in him on this
subject, in other words.
On any given issue, if there’s a position that’s likely
to piss off a majority, trust the White House to find it. Ukraine is no
exception. That’s another little gift to the “team” from its leader as the
election approaches.
There’s corruption afoot in the betrayal of Ukraine as well, as
there is in virtually all elements of Trumpist foreign policy. And of course
there’s the customary cronyism from tech oligarchs in the person of Musk,
reflecting the president’s preference for granting power over policy to wealthy interests personally
beholden to him rather than to law and institutions.
One would think that the richest man in history might
insist on letting market forces, not political interests, dictate how Starlink
is used; if Ukraine and its European patrons are willing to pay for the
service, that’s all Elon should need to know. Instead the system appears to
have been throttled to punish Ukraine for its military strategy, signaling to
every potential Starlink customer on Earth that some American might wield veto
power over how they use the product if they’re foolish enough to buy it.
The same goes for the U.S. defense industry writ large,
in fact, as the White House has also allegedly threatened to stop selling weapons to Europe for Ukraine’s use
if Kyiv doesn’t stop attacking Russian refineries. All of this is
quintessential Trumpism, strong-arming foreign partners with no thought
whatsoever for how doing so might steer them away from cooperating or
transacting with the United States long-term.
Oh, and sabotaging the Ukrainians is also strategically
stupid, the calling card of Trumpist foreign policy. Ukraine has stopped
targeting Russia’s refineries—yet it’s still being punished by the White House.
Russia continues to pummel the country with missile strikes, daring Ukraine to
resume its attacks on the refineries—yet the White House has done nothing to
discourage Moscow. The same geniuses who thought Iran would surrender in a day
and wouldn’t dare close the Strait of Hormuz have concluded that the One Neat
Trick that might end the Ukraine war is pressuring the victim, not the
catalyst, to lay off.
All told, I’d say this episode reflects postliberal
foreign policy perversions better than any other chapter of Trump’s presidency,
including the aberrantly neoconservative-ish Iran war. Postliberalism’s
admiration for authoritarians and disdain for Western liberals boils down to a
moral preference for the bad guys. That’s what we’re seeing this week in
Ukraine (although not just in Ukraine). We’re the bad guys.
Zelensky’s dilemma.
And so Zelensky and his team have a new strategic
dilemma: What should they do about America’s treachery?
One option is to write Trump off once and for all. Start
blasting Russia’s refineries again and keep using social media and other
outlets to shame the White House for sabotaging Ukrainian self-defense. It’s an
opportune moment politically to do so, with millions of Americans paying
attention to the news as they make up their minds on how to vote. A well-timed
groundswell of public outrage egged on by Democrats in the campaign’s final
weeks might spook a White House that’s already nervous about the midterms into
hastily reversing its new policy.
Defiance would amount to Ukraine declaring political war
on Trump. It’s risky, but the risk come January is likely to be considerably
smaller than it was for the past two years. Kyiv will probably have a new ally
in the U.S. government in the form of a Democratic House and possibly another
in the form of a Democratic Senate. The next time Trump tries to bully
Ukrainians, Congress won’t merely have some leverage to try to stop him, it’ll
have the nerve.
On the other hand.
Trump will be president until 2029. If I understand him
like I think I understand him, he won’t
be chastened by a Democratic blowout at the polls. To the contrary, if he
comes to believe that Ukraine’s defiance contributed to a blue wave—and
remember, he talks
himself into believing all sorts of things—he’ll want revenge during the
time in office he has left. And he’ll have ways to exact it: Even a hostile
Congress can do only so much to limit his authority as president over the
executive branch and over the military as commander-in-chief.
Again, no matter what cowardly anti-anti-Trumpers might
tell you, there is no GOP “team.” There’s only Trump. And so if the president
decides to cut all U.S. aid to Ukraine next year and the Democratic majorities
in the House and Senate pass a bill to extend it, have no doubt that there’ll
be more than enough Republican votes in both chambers to defeat any attempt to
override his inevitable veto. Some of those votes might even come from
Republicans who quietly agree with Democrats on the merits of the issue, but oh
well. There is no team.
Perhaps, then, the better play for Zelensky is to
cooperate with Trump instead of defying him. As painful as it will be for
Ukraine to hold its fire against the enemy’s refineries while Russia pounds
Ukrainian energy infrastructure, doing so will put immense political pressure
on the president domestically and internationally. The moral inequity will
become ever more glaring and inexplicable: Why isn’t America punishing
Russia for making a joke of Trump’s ceasefire? Why is Trump so pitifully weak
when it comes to Putin?
That is to say, if Ukraine’s goal is to maximize public
outrage in the United States toward Trump before Election Day, it might do
better by continuing to play its part as the dutiful, obedient client than by
repositioning itself as an angry critic of America’s government. Ongoing
obedience would deny Trump any pretext to punish the Ukrainians during his two
years of lame-duckery (which, I concede, isn’t to say that he won’t try
anyway). And it might boost Democrats’ election chances by exposing the president’s
lie that the Ukraine war, not the Iran war, is supposedly to blame for high gas
prices. What will be left of that claim if the Ukrainians stop targeting
Russia’s refineries over the next three weeks and diesel is still sky-high on
Election Day?
The Ukrainians have spent the better part of five years
outwitting the authoritarian leader of an illiberal major power. Now they’re
going to need to outwit another. The good news for them is that this one is a lot dumber than the other.



