Monday, September 21, 2026

The Democratic Socialist Congregation

By Jesse Arm

Monday, September 21, 2026

 

In August, when the New York Post profiled Grace Ryan—a 25-year-old NYU graduate, chocolate heiress, and socialist activist known online as “Lulu Lenin”—it supplied her critics with an irresistible caricature. Ryan had displayed the expensive clothes and vacations of a young woman born to wealth even as she was championing a movement devoted to dismantling class privilege. Confronted with the contradiction, she offered a defense more suited to an Edwardian drawing room than a Democratic Socialists of America meeting: “Y’all never heard of noblesse oblige?”

 

Ludicrous and unknowing as Ryan’s remark was, it was revelatory nonetheless about something very real. The DSA attracts people who have benefited from capitalism but feel cheated by it. It provides them with a moral vocabulary that gives them room to reinterpret personal disappointment as systemic injustice. And, most important, it gives them somewhere to go on a lonely Tuesday night, just as, for thousands of years, religion provided a social basis for Mormons on a Monday, Muslims on a Friday, Jews on a Saturday, and Christians on a Sunday.

 

More than merely an organization with a platform, the DSA is an entire social world, just as a faith tradition is. It supplies friends, status, identity, rituals, instruction, practical obligations, and a story that situates the individual inside a world-historical struggle. For young people whose jobs feel precarious or pointless, or whose expensive educations have not produced the lives they expected, or whose families and religious institutions no longer provide a thick sense of belonging—or a combination of two or all three—the DSA is the answer to a prayer. Perhaps literally.

 

The trajectory of New York DSA co-chair Gustavo Gordillo is an almost too perfect example. A Yale-educated artist living in a $1.5 million townhouse purchased by his wealthy father, who he falsely claimed was an immigrant from Peru, Gordillo cultivated a public identity as a union electrician even after being dismissed from his apprenticeship for prolonged absence. The extensive renovation of his family-funded home was reportedly performed with nonunion labor, and Gordillo was sued for unpaid rent on a separate apartment while the $1.4 million renovation was underway. He later persuaded DSA members to make his chairmanship a $95,000 salaried position. The organization had given him what the conventional elite economy had not: a vocation, status, and a constituency.

 

Members who derive that much from a movement will give much in return. That helps explain why the DSA’s political influence exceeds its raw numbers. A conventional interest group can produce a scorecard or buy an advertisement. A community can produce an army. DSA chapters train members to canvass, raise small dollars, run meetings, master ballot rules, and endure the tedium of local politics. Their activists can be deployed across the country to knock doors for a favored candidate, then return home with sharper skills and deeper loyalty. They become cadres.

 

No one has benefited more from that infrastructure than Zohran Mamdani. His importance to the movement extends far beyond whatever he can accomplish as mayor of New York. Governing will force compromises and expose contradictions. But his symbolic purpose is to strip “socialism” of its stigma and make a once-marginal ideology seem youthful, convivial, and inevitable.

 

Elsewhere, candidates can adapt the movement’s agenda and rhetoric to local conditions. A swing-state politician such as Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed can disingenuously disclaim the socialist label while benefiting from the same activist ecosystem. In more conservative territory, candidates such as Nebraska “independent” Dan Osborn can embrace nearly all aspects of the movement’s domestic agenda, along with its anti-Western foreign policy, while trading the conspicuous cultural aesthetics of Brooklyn’s purple-haired they/them left for a prairie-populist affect. The immediate objective is to win elections. The longer project is to build an infrastructure capable of moving the boundaries of ordinary politics.

 

Who joins that infrastructure? The statistician Nate Silver recently used more than 400,000 responses from the Cooperative Election Study to identify the most Democratic-voting educational and income group in America: people with postgraduate degrees but with relatively low household incomes, between $30,000 and $60,000. This is also close to the DSA sweet spot. In the organization’s 2021 membership survey, more than 80 percent of members 25 and older held at least a bachelor’s degree, while 45 percent of all members reported household incomes below $60,000. Teachers, nonprofit employees, social workers, academics, health-care workers, and public employees were heavily represented.

 

These people are the opposite of classic proletarians. Nor are they necessarily poor. They are better understood through the political scientist Peter Turchin’s theory of “elite overproduction.” A society can mint more people with shiny credentials and expectations than it has prestigious, well-compensated roles for them to fill. Those who lose the competition do not feel like ordinary members of the middle class, who know they will face ups and downs and struggles on a long path to stability and success. These left-behinders feel as if the high towers of the academic and cultural elite guaranteed them continued standing that they no longer possess. Their education has furnished them with the language and confidence to challenge the social order, while their frustration gives them the motive. Some become what Turchin calls counter-elites: ambitious organizers who mobilize popular resentment against the system that denied them the standing they believe they’ve earned.

 

Reihan Salam (who runs the think tank where I work) has shown how neatly Mamdani fits this pattern. Mamdani grew up amid extraordinary cultural achievement; his mother is a celebrated filmmaker, his father a prominent Columbia professor. Matching their success would have been difficult for anyone, and he spent his 20s getting nowhere, toying equally with hip hop and radical politics and speaking in different accents as he did so. His story resonates with a generation for whom the promise of automatic upward mobility has weakened. Among Americans born in 1940, 92 percent earned more than their parents had at the same age. Among those born in 1984, only half did.

 

Yet, as Salam notes, Millennials as a whole are not an immiserated generation. Their median household income at a comparable stage of life is higher than Generation X’s was in the 1990s, and their median wealth has risen quickly. The discontent is more culturally specific. It is concentrated among educated urbanites who compare themselves not with the country at large but with their parents and peers. They may earn far more than the median American and still be unable to buy an apartment in the neighborhood where they believe people like them are supposed to live. Their hardship is often less a real form of material deprivation than it is the expression of frustrated expectation.

 

In an article entitled “Why Do Rich Kids Love Socialism?,” Tyler Austin Harper argues that dwelling on the contradictions inherent in his title distracts from a more interesting question: Why have so many members of the educated professional class lost faith in capitalism?

 

There is something to this. You can think the way these people think without being a hypocrite or a spoiled brat, if your set of convictions is consistent and serious. Affluent people can sincerely support socialism, and beneficiaries of capitalism can legitimately criticize its failures. An heir may sincerely favor higher taxes on inheritances. A professional who has prospered within the existing economic system may still believe that a different one would serve the country better. Political arguments should be judged on their merits rather than the speaker’s pedigree.

 

But this acknowledgment that such opinions might genuinely derive from serious consideration and deep study actually requires a demonstration of that seriousness and studiousness. Without it, what we’re left with is people whose personal behavior is not only unserious but often contemptible. The criticism of Gordillo centers on how he assumed the garb of working-class authenticity, misrepresented his own record, and believed himself justified in stiffing ordinary people to whom he owed money—even as he lectured others about greed and privilege. Anyone may work within a system while seeking to reform it. But if you are going to traffic in moralistic denunciations, you bear an additional obligation. The person issuing them should accept the same rules he seeks to impose on everyone else.

 

More broadly, many affluent socialists engage in what Jonah Goldberg calls a “prolier-than-thou” performance. They pose as authentic tribunes of the working class, speak of wealth and profit in moralistic terms, and treat their own upper-class conceptions of false consciousness as evidence that ordinary people require political reeducation. Their money presents no inherent problem. Their eagerness to stigmatize others for pursuing prosperity while shedding remarkably little of their own creates the contradiction.

 

***

 

Capitalism is neither sinless nor a complete moral order. Mammon is, indeed, a false god.

 

But so is politics.

 

The danger of a religion substitute is not that its adherents believe in something. Human beings need belief, obligation, and belonging. The danger is that it takes a limited human enterprise and makes it absolute. A political movement that becomes a church develops a creed that explains all suffering, a doctrine of sin that divides oppressor from oppressed, rituals that certify righteousness, and heretics whose arguments need not be answered because their moral corruption has already been established. It offers redemption not through repentance or grace but through power.

 

This is why the Jewish condemnation of idolatry offers a key to understanding our present moment. The temptation to idolatry extends far beyond the primitive act of bowing before a statue. It arises whenever human beings take something partial—wealth, nation, appetite, ideology—and grant it ultimate authority. An idol is attractive precisely because it is tangible. It tells us whom to blame, what to do, and with whom we belong. Because it is made by human hands, it reflects human vanity and demands human sacrifice.

 

Judaism answers that temptation through theology and a dense architecture of life: study, prayer, meals, mourning, celebration, obligation, peoplehood, history, and ritual. These practices give ordinary people what radical movements promise—community, identity, purpose, a calendar, a moral vocabulary—while freeing politics from the burden of salvation.

 

Consider the Sabbath. It is a rebuke to the workaholic striver culture that has left many young Americans exhausted and spiritually thin. For one day each week, production stops. The phone goes dark. Families and friends eat together. Human worth is detached from output. The commandment extends rest beyond the powerful to workers, strangers, and even animals. It imposes a limit on the market without pretending that the state can perfect mankind.

 

This insight now travels well beyond traditional Judaism. Ezra Klein, a secular man of the left, has spoken on his New York Times podcast about Abraham Joshua Heschel and the Sabbath as a radical critique of the speed and acquisitiveness of modern life. Charlie Kirk, a devout Christian of the right, devoted his final book to the same subject, describing Sabbath observance as an answer to anxiety, distraction, and the barrenness of constant work. Their convergence is instructive. People across the political spectrum recognize that a life organized solely around labor, consumption, and online combat is insufficient.

 

The answer to the DSA, then, cannot be another thin political identity, much less a sanctification of capitalism. It must include stronger communities that meet the human needs the DSA has learned to meet. This is why Jewish parents should ground their children in the substance of Jewish civilization: its faith, certainly, but also its language, nation, history, life cycle, rituals, texts, and obligations. Belief in God cannot be transmuted into a social policy; this connection to the divine goes beyond such temporal concerns, and true faith is all but impossible for many people to achieve. But institutions can teach young people that they are heirs to something older than the discourse of the moment and that they’re members of communities whose bonds transcend political agreement.

 

A lonely society will manufacture gods. A generation denied durable sources of meaning will find them in movements that promise total explanations and instant fellowship. The Democratic Socialists of America get this better than most of its opponents, and that is why the movement is a force to be reckoned with—even if some of its leading voices make fools of themselves trying to justify their own resentments and weaknesses.

What Anti-Zionists Learned from Segregationists

By Seth Mandel

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

 

I used to wonder how segregationists could unabashedly espouse their ideology while also insisting that they harbored no hate in their heart—that they just wanted what was in everybody’s best interests.

 

Then I listened to Western anti-Zionists, and I stopped wondering. It’s like having a time machine.

 

I understand why pundits and activists and politicians would insist they aren’t anti-Semitic. The question that has vexed me is: Why would anyone self-identify as an anti-Zionist?

 

Let’s be extra-generous and pretend for a moment that “anti-Zionism is not anti-Semitism,” as the human bumper stickers constantly chirp. I think the past few years have made this assertion, which has always been wrong but at least facially plausible, an entirely irrational and self-discrediting pose.

 

But even if we grant a meaningful distinction, it’s a bit like pleading down from murder 1 to reckless homicide. It’s certainly not an assertion of innocence.

 

Anti-Zionism is the opposition to Jewish self-determination. In purely practical terms, that requires the dismantling of the Jewish state in favor of empowering those who proclaim their desire to murder all the Jews. So the key distinction is that the anti-Zionist claims to be unprejudiced as he brings about the conditions of the inevitable mass killing of Jews.

 

Because anti-Zionism is literally an anti-rights ideology, it also gives us a glimpse into the politics around segregation at a time when opposition to it was not yet the broad consensus and required an attempt at finessing the difference between bigotry as a motive and bigotry as an end goal. (George Wallace’s public speeches are a good example of this rancid Orwellian demagoguery.)

 

To be an anti-Zionist now, at this moment, is to be, by definition, the adherent of a violent ideology. It is to be an enemy of peace. To pretend otherwise is to be the defensive coordinator of a football team while claiming to be “personally anti-tackling.”

 

And so, again, I just keep wondering: What kind of person identifies with this? What kind of person claims to oppose scientific bigotry but embraces practical bigotry? And how on earth would a person expect this to be exonerating?

 

We can be even more generous to the anti-Zionist and say the following: Perhaps they haven’t thought at all of what this means for the status of certain nation-states; they oppose a movement for equal Jewish rights out of some other ideal.

 

That ideal would be irrelevant. No one should care why someone opposes equal Jewish rights. An admission of such opposition is enough to tell me this person is both refreshingly honest and reprehensible.

 

All of which makes the constant stream of artists and celebrities and pundits and others staking their claims to be “just anti-Zionist” so strange. And it conflicts with their other excuse: that they’re just criticizing a foreign state.

 

Criticism of Israeli policy isn’t anti-Zionism; in fact, it can arguably conflict with anti-Zionism in interesting ways. Anti-Zionism holds the state of Israel to be illegitimate. It therefore doesn’t fully recognize Israeli state policy as state policy. If you believe that “Palestine is occupied,” for example, Israel’s legitimate nation-state authority is unrecognized.

 

Accepting the legitimacy of the State of Israel is the key. If you do so, you aren’t anti-Zionist. (Though you might still be an ignoramus; there are many of those around too.) If you are anti-Zionist, it’s much harder to claim you’re just criticizing policy within the nondiscriminatory norm of such criticism.

 

Either way, anti-Zionism itself is an essentially violent ideology that a society dedicated to freedom and democracy and human rights would oppose unreservedly. “I’m just an anti-Zionist” is still an embarrassing self-incrimination.

Who Wants to Get Rid of Billionaires?

By John Fund

Sunday, September 20, 2026

 

The Golden State is trying to impoverish itself. This November, Californians will be voting on Proposition 40, which would impose a (supposedly) one-time 5 percent wealth tax on any resident whose net worth exceeds $1 billion.

 

Rarely have a ballot proposal’s shortcomings been so visible. At least six billionaires left the state before the end of 2025 to avoid the tax, which would apply to anyone who has lived in California at any time after January 1, 2026. These are Sergey Brin and Larry Page, co-founders of Google; Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal and Palantir; famed Hollywood director Steven Spielberg; Don Hankey of the Hankey Group; and Craft Ventures founder David Sacks. A study by economists at the Hoover Institution found that these six tax refugees alone have already removed “$536 billion, or nearly 30 percent of aggregate billionaire wealth, from the tax base.” And because these individuals will no longer pay any income tax in California, the wealth tax is expected to lose almost $25 billion in net revenue in present value terms.

 

There are roughly 200 billionaires in California. Many of them believe that, if Proposition 40 passes, the retroactive application of its 5 percent levy will be struck down as unconstitutional. It’s likely, however, that many more will head for the exit to avoid any of its future implications. The latest poll on the proposition was conducted between September 4 and 10 by the Public Policy Institute of California. Disturbingly, it found that Proposition 40 enjoys majority support, with 52 percent of respondents in favor. There is a precedent for it. A measure that added a 1 percent surcharge on taxable income over $1 million was passed in 2004, and two measures subsequently raised rates on high-income earners.

 

And yet, Proposition 40 is such an awful idea that even many of the state’s leading Democrats — including Governor Gavin Newsom — oppose it, as do some reliably leftist labor unions such as the California Teachers Association. Sponsoring the measure, however, is SEIU United Healthcare Workers West, whose leader, Dave Regan, one of the masterminds behind the proposal, might have been using thuggish tactics to build support for it. SEIU International authorized independent investigations into allegations of extortion against Regan. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, Regan is alleged to have “violated the SEIU Constitution by threatening and defaming certain union leaders as part of his campaign to secure endorsements for the Billionaire Tax.”

 

Joel Pollak, the opinion editor of the California Post, says, “Regan has been using Proposition 40 as his power play among the union elites. But even the unions have had enough. Union leaders don’t like being bossed around by Dave Regan any more than business owners or health clinics do.”

 

The vote this November will have profound consequences. It may just decide whether California can still be viewed as a desirable place to do business and accumulate assets. It will also send a clear signal about whether the state is under the thrall of thuggish special interest groups such as Regan’s union. If that’s the case, it won’t be just billionaires fleeing. It might also accelerate the departure of the state’s middle class.

The Politics of Depopulation

By Joel Kotkin

Monday, September 21, 2026

 

The land of la familia is now a land of gli anziani or, less politely, i vecchi, the most elderly society in an aging continent. In the land of la dolce vita, Italians seem to be having less of it, with some of the lowest birth rates among major European capitals. Half the population is now over 48 and a quarter over 65.

 

By 2100, it is projected that the country could have more 80-year-olds than children under five. The country’s population has fallen by 1.5 million since 2015.

 

Everywhere you walk in Rome and other Italian cities, you see people in their 80s and 90s struggling with hills and broken pavements. This has created a crisis of sorts, with some independent groups, acting in guerilla fashion, performing repairs that the Italian state is unable to perform. In one case a pensioner who filled a pothole received a stiff fine for daring to address a severe danger to seniors.

 

Creaking streets and broken ankles are just symptoms of a greater challenge. Due to a lack of children, Italian schools are, as one observer put it, “vanishing like glaciers.” Many historic small towns are depopulating. Increasingly, resources are poured into care for the elderly while many young Italians seem reluctant to enter the workforce, leaving the workplace to recent immigrants.

 

The Italian workforce is expected to contract by 20 percent over the next 25 years. GDP growth is among the slowest in the world. Companies large and small, most notably in the still-vibrant artisanal industries, complain that they cannot find Italian workers. This is made worse by Italy’s low level of female participation in the workforce, including in executive positions.

 

“Italy is going backwards,” suggests economist Veronika de Romanis, author of the recently published Economy of Fear. Italy, she notes, “is a nation of tribes” that protects its own but creates few new opportunities for young people and families.

 

The Specter of Depopulation

 

Italy’s dilemma repudiates the hugely influential Population Bomb written a half century ago by the late Paul Ehrlich. Rather than bursting at the seams, we are experiencing a demographic implosion that will shape our political and economic life for decades to come. Roughly two-thirds of countries experience fertility rates below 2.1, the level needed to replace the current population.

 

Even India, with the world’s largest population, is experiencing a dramatic decline in its birth rate. In the Islamic world, both Iran, a supposed center of religious fervor, and Turkey, another quasi-Islamist stronghold, now have fertility rates similar to that of the U.S.

 

University of Pennsylvania economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde estimates, rather than the U.N.’s assumed peak global population of 10.4 billion in 2084, humanity will peak at 9.2 billion in 2060. Generally, U.N.-projected fertility rates have been far higher than what actually occurred. In the next quarter century, estimates the IMF, China’s population will drop by 155.8 million, Japan 18 million, Russia 7.9 million, Ukraine 7 million, South Korea 6.5 million, and Italy 7.3 million .

 

China, with among the world’s lowest fertility rates — near 1.0 — blames foreign influences, but policies imposed by the communist regime are much to blame, notably the now-abandoned one-child policy and a commitment to high-density living, which tends to discourage family formation. Certainly, a recently enacted tax on condoms has not boosted fertility rates, nor has Comrade Xi’s typical propaganda onslaught promoting “a trend towards family.”

 

Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou suffer among the world’s lowest fertility rates, even lower than places like New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. A culture once renowned for familialism is no longer so, as evidenced by the popular new app called “Are You Dead?” — a way to check up on the elderly, now living and dying in isolation. It’s a boom market now that the Middle Kingdom experiences three deaths for every two births. The situation is so extreme that the state is being forced to bribe people with cash to have children.

 

Europe is similarly challenged. The EU’s population by 2100 is projected to fall from 443 million to just under 400 million. The U.S., although not depopulating, has seen its fertility rate at record lows, roughly half the 1965 level. As recently as a decade ago, most demographers predicted 400 million Americans by 2050; likely we will not get close to that. The fertility rate among women between ages 20 and 29 is down 38 percent in the past 18 years. Two-thirds of American counties already have more deaths than births.

 

A smaller population, suggests the British author Fred Pearce, could offer some relief for the natural environment, perhaps lessening the need for draconian measures that would impoverish more people. But many of the effects are threatening. Low fertility rates may boost dependence on the welfare state, particularly as informal networks — children, grandchildren, extended families, churches, and community organizations — weaken. The iPhone and other distractions may be great products of technology, but they “[atrophy] our social muscle,” as Robert Green puts it.

 

It’s also a potential fiscal nightmare. In high-income countries, notes McKinsey, the ratio is already 3.9 workers per person over 65, down from 6.8 in 1997. By 2050, the worst dependency ratios will be found in Western Europe, led by Italy and France, as well as in East Asian countries such as South Korea, where over 4,000 schools have been closed.

 

Is Mass Immigration the Answer?

 

Many see the solution as mass immigration. The National Immigration Forum suggest the U.S. needs a 37 percent jump in migration over 2020 levels “to prevent the US from falling into demographic and socioeconomic decline.” A 2024 analysis by the Penn Wharton Budget Model claims the current worker-retiree level necessitates an annual immigration rate 3.5 times higher than today’s. In Europe, the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development insists on a need to boost immigration to maintain the labor force.

 

Many countries are unlikely to open their doors to mass immigration. This is particularly true in East Asia, where homogeneity is greatly honored and immigration strictly limited, even in worker-short Japan. Poorer countries such as South Africa, Turkey, Pakistan, Uganda, Egypt, Kenya, and Ethiopia also resist adding new people because of their already high unemployment.

 

In contrast, left-leaning elites in Europe, Oceania, and North America see mass immigration as the way to address our much-feared “demographic winter.” Some advocates also see a virtue in boosting racial diversity and, particularly on the left, a way to shift the political dynamic in their favor. Business, for its part, embraces migration as a wayto address a shortage of workers and keep wages down, including among the undocumented.

 

Or Maybe Not?

 

There are clear, and compelling, reasons to not fully embrace this conventional wisdom. Europe’s foreign-born population, now at a record of over 64 million, has not turned out to be a salve for its sluggish economy. Many countries with the highest per capita rates of immigration — the U.K., Canada, Germany, and France — also suffer from stagnant economies.

 

In 2023, Canada, with 40 million residents, received 1 million immigrants. It also suffered the slowest economic growth rates among advanced countries while its once-high standard of living continued to decline. In Canada, one in five recent immigrants now suffers “deep poverty” — an income below 75 percent of the poverty line — compared to only 5 percent of the whole population.

 

In Europe, newcomers also are far more dependent on welfare transfers than are natives. Spain recently legalized at least 500,000 migrants, whose rate of poverty stands at roughly three times that of the native population. Even in the United States, the immigrant share of the U.S. population living in poverty since 1993 has nearlydoubled to almost one in four; among the undocumented, nearly 30 percent now live in abject poverty. Among Minnesota’s Somali immigrants, welfare use is four times that of native-born families.

 

Rather than supercharging the economy — despite claims that deportations are “sabotaging” commerce — most recent immigrants, according to the Congressional Budget Office, now compete with other poor people for living space, jobs, and social services. Although this effect is far from universal, wages in some industries employing the undocumented, notably construction and food manufacturing, have risen as deportations took effect.

 

To these economic concerns one has to add the disruptive impact. Recently, migrants to Europe have been disproportionately involved in crime. According to the World Prison Brief, foreign nationals made up 24.4 percent of France’s prison population in 2025 despite accounting for roughly 7–8 percent of the population. The International Network for Immigration Research found foreign nationals accounted for about 17 percent of France’s criminal suspects — more than double their share of the population — with rates rising to four to five times their share for vehicle theft, burglary, and unarmed robbery.

 

Much the same is evident in Catalonia where, according to government statistics, foreigners accounted for 84.3 percent of arrests for theft in 2025, 73 percent for violent robbery, and 60 percent for sexual assault. In Italy, according to the Ministry of Justice, foreign citizens account for nearly one-third of all prison inmates, despite representing around one-tenth of the resident population.

 

Designed to reinvigorate aging societies, mass immigration is reshaping Europe in ways many natives deplore. The seemingly inexorable tide of migration threatens national identity, undermining principles of free speech and respect for traditions, creating what Marilynne Robinson describes as “a cerebral whiteout.” The European Union as well as the governments of France, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, and Italy have pledged to crack down on migration.

 

This is recasting politics across the West. Uncontrolled mass immigration under the Biden administration helped Donald Trump win his last presidential election. Support for deportation of criminal aliens, and all the undocumented, has risen even among Democrats. Such sentiments did much to elect Giorgia Meloni in Italy and could bring Marine Le Pen, Nigel Farage, or someone from Germany’s AFD to power.

 

Do We Still Need Masses of Immigrants?

 

To maintain their workforce, renew their culture and pay their bills, the U.S. and other countries still need to keep some considerable amount of immigration. Right now, the U.S. suffers shortages of skilled manufacturing workers, providers of medical services, and workers in some technical jobs. But even this could change. The rise of artificial intelligence may reduce demand for software writers from India; tech companies have cut some 240,000 jobs since 2004.

 

Demand for low-end jobs may also diminish. Jobs requiring extensive manual labor dropped to 22 percent of all jobs in 2025, from 35 percent 50 years ago.

 

The rapid development of robots will likely hit all sorts of low-end jobs, from fast-food preparation and package-handling to bed-making, elderly care, and toilet-cleaning. Even the ranks of driversone in five is foreign-born — will be culled by the rise of autonomous vehicles.

 

Remaining low-wage immigrant workers, about 4 percent of the labor force, could benefit from a better regulated reboot of the old U.S. Bracero Program, allowing foreign laborers to do specific jobs without having them bring their families. Even Trump has been forced to acknowledge that in fields such as agriculture and hospitality, immigrants, including the undocumented, may be difficult to replace, at least in the near future.

 

Needed: A Focus on the Native-Born

 

The domestic working class seems an obvious if unintended victim of mass migration. Since many of the newcomers are poor and ill-educated, their presence in the workforce tends to retard wage growth at the lower ranks, noted a recent congressional study. But even in high-skilled professions, companies import workers at the exclusion of Americans. This approach is widely promoted by immigration lawyers and tech and other U.S. firms, even if it works against the native-born STEM workers now suffering increasingly high unemployment rates.

 

Rather than looking abroad for salvation, Western countries might prioritize getting their disengaged workforce back toward employment. Today an estimated one-third of American working-age males are neither in school nor working, the highest percentage in a half century. In Europe, in the U.K., and in Canada, as much as one-quarter to one-third of the population under 30 is neither in school nor in a job.

 

Under such circumstances, blindly pushing for mass immigration seems absurd. Increasingly, young people never enter the labor pool, with record-low numbers taking summer jobs. Generation Z constitutes the most “disengaged” workforce across the advanced world.

 

A mismatch of native workers and jobs drives fertility rates even further down. Many are failing to launch, much less get married or have offspring. In the U.S., the percentage of people 18 to 34 living at home, notes Pew, is roughly one in three, but in Italy the percentage reaches over 70 percent.

 

Stefano Becucci, professor of sociology at the University of Florence, told me this lack of jobs affects many educated people, who would rather sit at home than take a job, for example, in the artisan economy. “People stay in school long, well into their thirties,” he observed over coffee at the school’s suburban campus. “They stay because it’s difficult to get a job in their field. You get a Ph.D. and expect a job that pays well. When they don’t get one, they stay home.”

 

Even East Asia, once the heartland of family-centered workaholics, is losing its workforce; thus Japan has witnessed the rise of “freeters,”permanent part-timers often living with their parents and more interested in traveling, playing video games, and the like. In China, many educated Millennials, faced with diminishing prospects, have abandoned striving in favor of “lying flat,” taking part-time work rather than seeking out a career and a family.

 

Turning the Old Into an Asset

 

Many economists and politicians treat the aging population as a giant liability. America, like the rest of the world, is older than it has ever been: The population aged 65 and older is projected to increase from 58 million in 2022 to 82 million by 2050 (a 42 percent increase). Seniors’ share of the total population is projected to rise from 17 percent to 23 percent .

 

The late former Nixon Secretary of Commerce Peter Peterson spent decades skewering retirees; in his polemic, Gray Dawn, he railed against their long retirement “in subsidized leisure.” Brookings more recently declared that the rise of an aging population “has no perceivable upsides.”

 

Yet in reality, seniors can be seen as an asset. Every year approximately 26.3 percent of U.S. seniors aged 65 and older — 15 to 16 million strong — volunteer for a wide array of charitable activities. Another 40 percent informally help friends and neighbors, particularly those with disabilities, with groceries and transportation. Altogether the Boomers — the vast majority of seniors — and the aging Xers account for the largest group of volunteers in charities, churches, and other service institutions. And an increasing number continue to work well into their seventies and beyond. Nearly onein five Americans aged 65 and older are currently working or looking for work, which is nearly double the participation rate seen a few decades ago, according to Investopedia.

 

You also can see their predominance, and desire for engagement, in almost any church, synagogue, or mosque, but also in many other forms of community service. Several times a week, a group of seniors, mostly female, gather at the Boys and Girls Club in San Juan Capistrano, a charming historic town on California’s southern coast. They do not play bingo but spend an hour with young children who need help with reading. Literacy is a gift cherished by these aging Boomers, while it has faded among following generations.

 

“We fill a gap for kids with problems with reading,” explains Janice Frenchette-Artinger, the executive director of the Parentis Foundation, which sends 200 seniors, mostly well into their 70s and 80s, to work with youngsters in Southern California. “Seniors want to be useful, and they can help even if it’s just feeding dogs. It’s a reason to be alive.”

 

Age does not necessarily mean decrepitude or dependence. Today’s elderly are far better-educated than in the past. In 1965 only 5 percent of seniors had college degrees; today that number is above 30 percent. They are also more self-sufficient; today roughly 14 percent of seniors are poor, compared with 30 percent in 1966. Not surprisingly, a growing percentage do not use nursing and other senior facilities, wanting instead to age in place.

 

Seniors “are reinventing old age,” Joseph Coughlin, director of MIT’s AgeLab, told the Wall Street Journal. They are living longer, and more capably, well into their 80s and beyond, notes a recent Yale study. Some become more functional, mentally and otherwise. Dementia rates are falling dramatically.

 

For decades, older workers embraced retirement as “the great national repository of delayed gratification,” author Mark Freedman notes. But in this decade, many Boomers are starting businesses, launching new firms at a 22 percent rate compared to 0.6 percent for the rest of the population. Bain estimates that worldwide, seniors will occupy 150 million jobs by 2030, providing up to a quarter of the workforce in some countries.

 

Yet some describe the seniors, as The Atlantic put it, as a corrupt gerontocracy that has “amassed disproportionate wealth and power.” The New York Times, nearly two-thirds of whose readers are over 50, ran a column called “Older Americans Are Hoarding America’s Potential,” penned by Samuel Moyn, a professor of law and history at Yale and author of Gerontocracy in America: How the Old Are Hoarding Power and Wealth — and What to Do About It. Moyn’s program embraces moves to confiscate the wealth of Boomers, all of whom are now over 60, and to hand it over to younger generations.

 

This resentment has roots in reality: In the U.S. at least, less than half of Millennials are doing better than their parents. A Deloitte study projects that Millennials (Americans born 1981 to 1996) will hold barely 16 percent of the nation’s wealth in 2030, when they will be the largest adult generation by far. By then, the preceding Generation X, born between 1965 and 1980, will hold 31 percent, while the even older boomers will still control 45 percent.

 

Over time, of course, many young people will benefit from inheriting the roughly $4.6 trillion in property — $2.4 trillion in the U.S. alone. But some on the socialist-minded left see seizing these assets, particularly those of the successful, sooner as an ideal way to power.

 

To be sure, not all seniors are doing well. Optimism about aging, notes Pew, tends to follow income and savings. Nearly 40 percent of U.S. retirees have insufficient savings, a trend made worse by inflation, and 20 percent have already burned through their savings. Longer lifespans will add to that pressure. Demand for more transfers to seniors could further intensify the generational conflict even as they require the assistance of children and grandchildren, if they have any.

 

There are better alternatives than confiscating Boomer wealth or bringing poverty back to working-class seniors. The generations need each other. More than two-thirds of grandparents are caregivers who usually work for free, often on a regular or even daily basis, providing over $700 billion for the economy by allowing parents to work or go to school. Emerging new technologies, notably autonomous vehicles, also offer the prospect of greater mobility.

 

Seniors could prove a potential bulwark against a shrinking labor force. Today, 23.2 percent of U.S. workers are older than 55, up 17.3 percent over the past decade, according to one analysis. Sadly, in some societies, largely in the European welfare states, working after 60 or 65 is discouraged. In places such as Spain and France, less than 10 percent of people between 65 and 70 are employed. They are missing an enormous opportunity to shore up a dwindling workforce.

 

Dealing Successfully with the New Demographics

 

Changes such as raising the retirement age could encourage people to work longer, reducing the need for mass migration and filling critical market niches. And productivity gains, as one MIT paper recently argued, might make up for a declining workforce, further enhanced by artificial intelligence. As we can see in some depopulating parts of the country, it may be possible to achieve what economist Paul Gottlieb calls “growth without growth.”

 

Under any reasonable scenario, slow population growth and increased aging seem inevitable. But rapid depopulation and generational war are not, although government may not be the best at providing solutions. State attempts in Italy to lower taxes on diapers and provide incentives for childbearing have barely moved the needle. Generous handouts to families have failed. “Markets,” notes demographer Nick Eberstadt, “cannot cure social pathologies.”

 

Ultimately the key lies in rekindling the familial values that have long buttressed society. A potential return to faith might help, whereas the decline in religious commitment, notably among Catholics, has had a devastating effect on fertility rates. Some religious subcultures, like the Amish, Mormons, and Orthodox Jews, enjoy far higher birth rates. Evangelicals, a far larger group, also demonstrate a slightly higher fertility rate.

 

“Culture is the only solution,” Sebastiano Mattefone, a leading Italian political theorist, told me outside his tree-lined Rome campus. Mexican immigrant kids, surrounded by a wide family network, experience appreciably fewer mental health problems than kids born here. Not everything boils down to money or efficiency. Religious values gaining some ground among the young could lift the current low fertility. It seems that some parents are getting the point: Remarkably, the time spent with kids is now twice what it was 50 years ago.

 

As the late Karl Zinsmeister notes in his last book, The Natural Family, the family is critical to the survival of civilization, a functioning economy, and a sense of purpose. The priority should be not to import our future wholesale, but nurture what G. K. Chesterton described as “the factory that manufactures mankind.” The demographic crisis calls most of all for a new humanism that relishes the creation of children, albeit in far smaller batches, prioritizes the concerns of our own working class, and taps the energies and wisdom of seniors. Demographics may well be destiny, but not necessarily a precursor to a bleak one.

The Pinball President

By John Dickerson

Sunday, September 20, 2026

 

In 1946, the year that Donald Trump was born, the pinball machine offered everything but control. The bumpers were propulsive, the lights flashed, but the player’s only honest move was to pull a spring-loaded plunger. After that, the ball belonged to the machine, zinging and zooming wherever the bumpers sent it.

 

This is how many Americans experience the Trump presidency today: antic caroming that they can do little more than watch. The ballroom. The Iran war. The threats against Canada. Greenland. Portraits of himself as Christ, a decorated general, or the pope. The arch. The Kennedy Center. Prosecution of enemies. Pardons. Imaginary Reflecting Pool vandals. Federal incursions into voting. Tariffs on. Tariffs off. Tariffs on again. The Qatari plane. Endless promises—to release tax returns, to end corruption, to deliver $5,000 checks—that never materialize.

 

No president has been more with us than Trump, because no president has been better at seizing public attention. But there is a difference between getting attention and doing something with it. For months, the president has been unable to convince the public that he’s up to the job. In a CNN poll released at the end of July, 65 percent of respondents said that his policies had worsened the economy, and only 28 percent approved of his handling of Iran.

 

Voters have watched the caroming and have concluded that he doesn’t have his eye on the ball. They care about the economy, and he seems to care about everything else. Only 27 percent of adults told CNN that Trump has the right priorities, down from 45 percent when the term began. And a record 73 percent said he hasn’t paid enough attention to the country’s most important issues. In June, while Trump was fixated on the Reflecting Pool and stopping widespread voter fraud that doesn’t exist, a bipartisan housing bill aimed at high costs reached his desk. He called it “a big yawn” and said he hadn’t decided whether to sign it. In July, he let it become law without his signature.

 

This is a problem for Republicans in November 2026, but it’s an opportunity for voters looking to November 2028. Once a roster of candidates emerges, their supporters will discover that the office demands—wouldn’t you know it?—exactly the qualities that their preferred candidate happens to possess. Now, when there’s no one horse to back, is the time to use the current president’s rat-a-tat treatment of our attention to ask how we want the next president to spend it.

 

Many voters will ask only one thing of the next president: Don’t be Donald Trump. Fair enough. But stopping at “not Trump” wastes the extremity of the Trump years. Extremes clarify. A flood shows you where the ground was always low.

 

The Trump years have been a reminder that the presidency is a trust. The public’s attention belongs to the public. A president borrows it, and the test at every turn is whether he spends it on their account or his own. Trump treats it as a possession, to do with as he pleases, like the East Wing. For him, the public is his cheering section. A president who ignores the half of the country that voted against him teaches them that elections are conquests. They will remember that when they win.

 

It’s true that when Trump wants to focus the nation’s attention on something, he is relentless: immigration, his enemies, his ballroom. In April, The Washington Post found that he had publicly mentioned the ballroom on roughly a third of the days by that point in the year; he had posted about it more than about tariffs. But what he cares about often isn’t in the nation’s greater interest. A trustee doesn’t spend the trust on himself.

 

The next president should ration his calls on the public’s attention, which, after all, protects his own effectiveness and the country’s. “Public psychology,” Franklin Roosevelt wrote in 1935 to a reporter urging him to speak out more often, “cannot, because of human weakness, be attuned for long periods of time to a constant repetition of the highest note in the scale.” When Roosevelt did speak, he explained. In his first fireside chat, he walked the country through how a bank works. Explanation is what lets a president speak less: A public that has been shown why can carry the argument on its own, and a public that has only been told what must be told again tomorrow.

 

A president cannot push opinion where it doesn’t want to go, only nudge it, and that is possible only if he hasn’t already worn the audience out. A president who is always talking cannot use talking to signal that this time matters. The creed of this current era is the opposite. “If you’re not making news, you’re not governing,” wrote former Representative Matt Gaetz, who made news nearly every day he served and governed not at all.

 

A president who consumes the country’s attention spends down a resource that citizens need for their own affairs, including those delightful corners of human experience that should be free of political consideration. The UFC fighter Bryce Mitchell understood this before the bouts on the White House lawn this summer. Mitchell, who did not participate, said that the government was “desecrating its role in society.” The government, he said, “is supposed to protect us, not entertain us.”

 

Sometimes a president doesn’t have to ask for the country’s attention, because catastrophe has already gathered it. In these cases, a president can act as a moral force, particularly in consolation. Reagan after the Challenger explosion, Clinton after the Oklahoma City bombing, the younger Bush after the attacks of 9/11, and Obama at Emanuel AME in Charleston, South Carolina. Each president spent the nation’s attention on its grief and, in doing so, reminded the nation what it valued. Trump has nearly erased this part of the job, inventing a new one in its place: chief grave dancer. When Rob Reiner was murdered in December, Trump blamed Reiner himself; when Robert Mueller died in March, Trump wrote, “Good, I’m glad he’s dead.”

 

A president sends a moral signal not just in the words he uses but also in what he chooses to spend them on. After the white-nationalist march and the death of Heather Heyer in Charlottesville, Virginia, in August 2017, Trump denounced the Nazis, but the thrust of his attention was aimed elsewhere. He obsessed over the counterprotesters. He praised himself for being the only one brave enough to name what he claimed were the misdeeds of the people opposing the Nazis. “You had a group on one side that was bad, and you had a group on the other side that was also very violent,” he insisted without evidence, “and nobody wants to say it, but I will say it right now.” He sent six tweets about Charlottesville and, in those tweets, never used the terms racism, bigotry, or white nationalism. He sent 37 tweets about NFL players kneeling during the anthem.

 

All of this happens where we can see it. We tend to treat the presidency as if it existed only in that public form. Most of it doesn’t. Because much of the job happens in secret or out of camera range, what the president chooses to do with public attention is our best evidence of how he sorts the world in private. That evidence has limits. A president who never mentions the deficit might be working on it every morning. Eisenhower’s style was called the “hidden hand”: The president who looked idle at the podium was working the levers out of sight. But a president whose public attention shows no discipline, discernment, or patience isn’t going to discover those attributes at the necessary scale when the cameras turn away. Trump governs by the Heisman hand, always in your face.

 

The presidency demands brutal prioritization. “I have two kinds of problems, the urgent and the important,” goes a line that Eisenhower liked to quote. “The urgent are not important, and the important are never urgent.” It was such a simple idea that it became the Eisenhower Matrix, used by managers everywhere to sort incoming challenges. The principle applies with more force in a job where the urgent arrives by the hour. If missile stockpiles are low, we want a president fixing that now, not giving a speech about the deficit. But we also want a president who can see the deficit coming and feel some obligation to the future citizens who will live under galactic debt. Trump spends a lot of his time on matters that are neither important nor urgent. The New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman, who has covered Trump for 30 years, has said that if you charted his mind these days, 70 percent of it would go to gilding, construction, renaming, and tribute projects.

 

The exhaustion after Trump will produce an appetite for quiet. It has happened before. George W. Bush campaigned on restoring dignity to the office because Americans were worn out by the dramas of the Clinton years; he wanted a presidency that his team promised would show up on page A24 of the newspaper. But quiet is not a standard. The office needs a benchmark built from the job itself, not from the last man to hold it. Nor should the next president react to Trump’s frivolity by turning every subject into a family talk in the living room about Important Matters—a brittle standard where partisans adopt the posture of the online scold who answers “I love dogs” with “Your silence on cats is deafening.” Under that standard, a president must speak to everything, and a president who speaks to everything has no time left to do anything.

 

Campaigns often measure for qualities that have little or nothing to do with the office. But voters can evaluate how candidates treat public attention on the campaign trail and make some inferences about how they would approach the job. Here are some questions to ask: Does the candidate choose problems that a president can actually move, and can he say why those and not others? Can a president articulate a vision for the country to people who are not likely to vote for her? Can he explain rather than merely assert? Does she ever talk about a problem that won’t pay off before the next election? Can he let a news cycle pass without joining it? And when grief or outrage arrives, does he show any evidence of a concern for the entire nation? How a candidate handles these moments during a campaign—when public attention, ever more scarce in the age of the algorithm, is the only thing he has to spend—tells us how that candidate will spend ours.

 

In 1947, the year after Trump’s birth, pinball changed. The flipper was added, which meant the player was no longer merely watching. Where the ball went was now, at least in part, up to the player. In 2028, voters will be in the game again. But that requires attention to the office now.

Trump’s Attacks on the Media Are Self-Defeating

By Jonathan Chait

Sunday, September 20, 2026

 

Donald Trump is presiding over a failing presidency and lashing out at the news media—most recently by banning CNN, Politico, and MS NOW from the White House. There might seem to be a connection between these two things, but the causal link is not that Trump is punishing the press because he is failing; rather, it’s the opposite. His inability to govern is in part a consequence of his hatred for the news media.

 

Trump has been bullying and manipulating the news media since before he entered politics. And though it may be tempting to believe that his efforts to strangle independent reporting result from his current political travails, he has been pursuing that project throughout his current term. Trump attempted to ban the Associated Press from the White House during his first days in office, when his popularity was at its short-lived apogee. Trump’s most dangerous moves against the media came in the wake of Charlie Kirk’s assassination, when some conservatives perceived that the tragedy handed them a window to discredit their critics. In fair weather and foul, Trump simply cannot tolerate critical news coverage.

 

His belief that the mainstream news media is profoundly biased against him and his party is an article of faith on the political right, although he has pushed much further in response to that belief than any of his predecessors ever dared. More than 50 years ago, conservative distrust of the media was already so deeply entrenched that the Nixon administration could hinge its defense of the Watergate scandal largely on attacking the credibility of reporters uncovering its misconduct.

 

Many mainstream news outlets really are staffed by reporters and editors whose political views, on average, run to the left of the American public, and their efforts to prevent these predilections from tilting their coverage have not always succeeded. Yet conservatives generally fail to acknowledge that mainstream news organizations are at least trying to report objectively, and that their own relentless lobbying has sometimes prodded the media to overcorrect in their favor.

 

Instead, the right has treated liberal media bias as one of the fixed truths of its worldview. “There are certain facts of life so long obvious they would seem beyond dispute,” argued a Wall Street Journal editorial more than 20 years ago. “One of these—that there is a liberal tilt in the media that shapes news coverage and dictates, all too often, what can and can’t be said on the air or in print—continues to provoke hot denials and even rage.”

 

Because they consider this bias so pervasive, conservatives rarely make an effort to test it. Bernard Goldberg’s celebrated 2002 book, Bias, which was toted in public by President George W. Bush and reviewed respectfully in mainstream news outlets, suffered from “the epistemological trap of interpreting every news story that jibes with your ideology as obviously true and every story that doesn’t as evidence of media bias,” as I wrote at the time.

 

That trap has swallowed the Republican Party. Its leaders have long since decided that negative news coverage of any kind merely reflects innate hostility, and they accordingly trained themselves to ignore it.

 

In Trump’s version, the news media’s unfairness is a kind of syllogism. Any story that reflects poorly upon him is definitionally fake, a hoax, the product of “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” His supporters have largely accepted this formulation. The Fox News media critic Howard Kurtz wrote a 2018 book, Media Madness: Donald Trump, the Press, and the War Over the Truth, that revolves around the premise that critical stories about Trump inherently reflect media bias, rather than the reality that Trump tends to lie or commit scandals at a higher rate than traditional presidents.

 

Trump has made little effort to disguise his view that all news coverage can be categorized as either positive or fake. Speaking with reporters after his ban Friday, he said, “There’s something wrong with a country that can allow people to write purposely negative stories.”

 

The First Amendment fortunately prevents Trump from operationalizing his premise that negative stories about his administration should not be legal. (The courts will almost certainly reverse his ban on Politico, CNN, and MS NOW, just as they did his earlier ban on the AP.)

 

But the Constitution does not prevent the GOP from acting as if negative coverage is inherently illegitimate. Reinforcing that belief, in fact, may be part of Trump’s motivation. He has turned his party into a personality cult that disregards all evidence of failure. This project requires constant reminders that the hated press cannot be trusted, and that Trump himself is the source of all truth.

 

A healthy political party would long ago have rebelled against Trump’s haphazard protectionism, his ill-thought lurch into a quagmire with Iran, his untrammeled corruption, and his embarrassing obsession with building extravagant monuments to himself. While Trump’s war on the media may be an effort to tamp down criticism of the Republican Party, that criticism has only intensified. The most profound effect of his attacks has been to seal off many Republican minds from the fresh air of critique and correction. But the GOP’s efforts to discredit the media, rather than protecting the party from its own governing failures, have only made those failures worse.