By Nick Catoggio
Thursday, September 17, 2026
Do populists want to lose elections?
I mean, the president sure
seems to. But what about everyone else? In their heart of hearts, do they
secretly prefer the comfort of minority status to the responsibilities of
power?
That question has been kicked around among egghead
pundits intermittently for 10 years, and I still haven’t settled on an answer.
The case for “no” is obvious: In 2020, populists so dreaded losing power that
they attempted a coup to try to hold on to it. A few of them even tried to hang
the vice president when he wouldn’t go along.
Does that sound like a group that’s chill about losing
elections?
But the case for “yes” is pretty easy too. The joy of
populism is getting to rage self-righteously against the fecklessness and
corruption of the ruling elite. Becoming the ruling elite yourself and having
to govern takes all the fun out of it.
See, e.g., Dan Bongino, who was made second in command of
the world’s most powerful law enforcement agency and peaced out after less than
a year to return to podcasting. One job let him spin up right-wingers about a
government cover-up involving Jeffrey Epstein, the other obliged
him to debunk it. Bongino chose fun (and lucre).
I’d conservatively estimate that 80 percent of the reason
Donald Trump has spent the last decade wheezing about the “deep state” is that
it resolves the paradox that his electoral success has created. How can he be
the duly elected president, the head of government, a dictator within his own
party—and still also a smol bean populist outsider challenging a corrupt
establishment?
Simple. The “deep state” is the real establishment,
supposedly. Trump remains part of the blameless minority even as he goes about
grabbing power remorselessly.
Whether populists prefer to lose is back on my mind
because of leftist provocateur Hasan Piker. Piker is known for belching up hot
takes on his livestreams about, among other things, America having deserved 9/11 and American Jews inviting violence against themselves by
supporting Israel. The Democratic candidate for Senate in Michigan,
progressive Abdul El-Sayed, found his perspective valuable enough to have appeared
with him several times at events this year.
He’s been paying
for it ever since. With the general election approaching and polls in
Michigan surprisingly tight, one might think Piker would want to do
his friend Abdul a solid by lying low—or at least declining interview
requests—until November.
Nope. He sat down with Axios this week and was asked
whether he believes the United States is “worse” than al-Qaeda. The question
was obvious bait, and Piker bit hard:
Pound for pound as far as the
number of deaths, yes. We have caused tremendous terror all around the world. I
think that that is not only terror that we are waging on regular civilians in
nations in the periphery, but it’s also having consequences on ourselves. It’s
having dramatic consequences on the home front. One clear example of this is
what we did in Minab [Iran], right? There’s no distinction between blowing up a
school, triple-tapping it with Tomahawk missiles—if you’re killing 140
schoolgirls, that is an act of terror. This doesn’t mean that all Americans are
terrorists, but the reality of the matter is we have to create an environment
of accountability to ensure things like that never happen again.
That answer is the political equivalent of a flaming bag
of dog s--t left on El-Sayed’s doorstep. The candidate hurriedly disavowed his
pal’s position (never mind that it sounds a lot like El-Sayed’s
own position circa 2021) in a comment to Axios, even giving him the “Hasan who?” treatment:
“I do not agree with this statement, nor do I give much weight to the
statements made by a social media streamer.” He must be wondering the same
thing I am: Does Piker want him to lose this election?
I don’t think so. “Pikerism is the future of the left!”
is obviously a better headline for Hasan than “Pikerism is electoral poison,”
and the former is possible only if El-Sayed wins while the latter is inevitable
if he loses. Drawing moral equivalencies between America and its enemies isn’t
a case of Piker trying to sabotage his friend’s campaign.
It’s a case of postliberals doing what postliberals do.
Denigrating America.
The president himself does it routinely.
He was asked this week about China providing satellite
imagery to Iran to help the regime target U.S. bases in the Middle East, which
would help explain how shockingly successful the Iranians have been at striking
American assets. For a blowhard like Trump who’s obsessed with strength and got
elected in 2016 as a China hawk, here was a golden opportunity to demonstrate
toughness by warning the Chinese to back off.
Instead, he rhetorically shrugged. “They do what we do,”
he said of China supplying military intelligence to an ally
against a common enemy. Which is ironic, given that America’s allies in the Far
East have never been less confident that the United States will be
doing anything in the future to help them against Beijing.
The president has drawn even starker moral equivalencies
when confronted about Vladimir Putin’s habit of murdering people who make
trouble for him. When Bill O’Reilly called Putin a “killer” during an interview
in 2017, Trump replied, “There are a lot of killers. We have a lot of
killers. … You think our country is so innocent?” There isn’t much daylight
between that answer and Piker’s musings on the United States and al-Qaeda.
It’s weird in some ways that a nationalist like Trump
would resort to progressive-style sophistry about who the real bad guys are.
For one thing, his movement is jingoist and chauvinist to the core; that
America is great and good (at least when the right is in charge), not a nation
of cutthroat “killers,” is normally an article of MAGA faith.
Stranger still, the president doesn’t typically measure
whether an adversary’s conduct is acceptable by whether the United States
engages in the same conduct. On the contrary, the point of “might makes right”
as a worldview is to establish a double standard in which America gets to do
things—like, say, forming alliances with Europe—that it won’t tolerate from
less powerful countries. “It’s okay for China to help Iran kill Americans
because we might someday help the Taiwanese kill them” is a glaring departure
from that worldview.
Why are postliberals as far afield as Trump and Piker
prone to answering questions about enemy atrocities with variations of “you
think our country is so innocent”? I think it has less to do with wanting to
denigrate America than with trying to move public opinion toward postliberalism
by inviting Americans to reconsider their moral prejudices against illiberal
entities abroad.
Don’t get me wrong, it has something to do with
wanting to denigrate America. To listen to Trump on the campaign trail in 2016
and 2024 was to hear that the land of the free and home of the brave had become
a squalid anarchic hellhole on the brink of social collapse. To listen to Piker
is to learn that America is an avatar of extraordinarily wicked belligerence,
midwife to a “genocide” by Israelis in Gaza and potentially beyond.
At the risk of engaging in tautology: Postliberalism is a
revolution against liberalism, and revolutions can’t succeed absent popular
contempt for the governing regime. Convince Americans that the civic order to
which they’ve traditionally pledged allegiance has crumbled into abject
immorality—worse than al-Qaeda, full of “killers,” no more civilized than
Putin’s Russia—and you’ve created political space for radical change.
Safe for illiberalism.
Most of the game being played by Trump and Piker, though,
has to do with challenging Americans’ traditional hatred of illiberalism by
challenging their suppositions about what makes “the bad guys” bad.
When the president handwaves away Russia’s persecution of
dissidents and China’s military support for Iran, he does so because he admires
those regimes and wants the U.S. to grow closer to them. It suits his “spheres
of influence” approach to the world, in which the great powers collude to
menace their respective “spheres.” (Might makes right!) And of course it suits
his autocratic tendencies: Trump plainly wishes he could deal with his domestic
enemies the way Xi Jinping does.
An America in which the public has been conditioned to
regard illiberal governments as no less moral than our own is an America
unlikely to make a fuss as the U.S. government slips further into
postliberalism. We’re already so much like Russia and China, you see; what does
it matter if we’re a little bit more?
Piker doesn’t want a government that resembles al-Qaeda,
I’ll safely assume, but he does seem to want an American administration that’s
neutral at worst between Israel and its jihadist enemies and an American public
that treats Israeli military action as no more morally justified than Islamic
terrorism.
How can he achieve that? By encouraging Americans to use
the death toll in the war on terror as a yardstick for measuring which side has
been more “terrorist.” (What he meant by “pound for pound” in his comment to Axios,
I have no idea.) The question of who killed more? conveniently elides
other factors people normally consider in weighing the morality of war: What
are the two sides’ goals? Are they targeting civilians intentionally? Are they
trying to mitigate harm? But that’s the point. Since powerhouse militaries like
America’s and Israel’s will almost always outkill their enemies, they’re
destined to be the bad guys in any conflict according to Piker’s math.
The death toll a government inflicts in executing its
policies certainly is something to consider in weighing the justness of its
cause. The wrinkle is that Piker has carved out big, big exceptions to
that for foreign regimes that he’s more enthusiastic about. As The Atlantic’s
Derek
Thompson noted this morning, Piker is a Mao Zedong admirer who fangirled
out during a trip to China upon being gifted a copy of the late chairman’s Little
Red Book. Somehow, the man with the biggest body count of the 20th
century is seemingly exempt from his who killed more? moral calculus
while America and Israel are not.
We all make moral allowances for political causes with
which we sympathize. And to give Piker his due, he’s right to demand
“accountability” for the U.S. bombing of the Iranian school in Minab at the
start of the war. Last month, ProPublica revealed that one of Pete Hegseth’s many
initiatives to make the U.S. military less
squeamish about killing people was to gut a program aimed at protecting
civilians during combat. Had it remained fully staffed, the attack on the
school might not have happened. Putting a war crimes apologist in charge of the Pentagon does bolster the
case for moral equivalence between America and its enemies.
But the fact that we all make allowances for causes we
support doesn’t excuse moral perversion in choosing which causes to support. I
understand the argument that Israel has gone too far in trying to avenge the
slaughtered dead of October 7, turning its campaign to destroy Hamas into a
campaign to level Gaza. But I don’t understand how that argument can be made in
good faith while waving around the Little Red Book (“The Great Leap
Forward had good intentions!”), just like I don’t understand how it can be made
in good faith by turd-polishers of Putin’s war of conquest in Ukraine like
Tucker Carlson.
Intentions matter. Body counts matter, too. Postliberals
make no pretense of moral consistency in caring about either.
Relativism.
Then again, why would they?
I’ve written many times that Trumpism is less a political
movement than a revolution against traditional liberal political morality. From
a piece
on the president’s nascent slush fund for loyalist criminals: “For most of my
life, the scourge of conservatism—in particular its Christian adherents—was
moral relativism. Trump is moral relativism personified. Whether an action is right or
wrong, good or evil, depends entirely on whether one benefits from it or not.”
There’s no inconsistency in Piker feeling incandescently
outraged at Israel and giddy about Mao, just as there’s no inconsistency in
Trump being angrier at Canada for wanting to join the European Union than he is at China
for helping Iran to kill Americans. Consistency has nothing to do with
anything. Under postliberalism, morality is a tool to advance one’s interests.
If you’re committed ideologically to left-wing
postliberalism, there’s no contradiction in having a no-limits body count for
communist rule in China while abhorring a “genocide” perpetrated by “Western
settler colonialists” in the Middle East. And if you’re committed ideologically
to right-wing postliberalism, there’s no contradiction in feeling more
indignant about a liberal alliance in your “sphere of influence” than Xi
targeting U.S. air bases or Putin murdering Ukrainians.
It’s all relative. They do what we do—and if anything,
we’re worse: The muddier American postliberals can make the moral waters,
the less of a political drag on their agenda voters’ moral impulses promise to
be. America has spent most of the last 10 years being governed by a party in
which that cynical attitude prevails, with predictable
consequences. I’m not sure what happens if it ends up prevailing in both.