Monday, October 12, 2026

What Hasan Piker Believes

By Jonathan Chait

Monday, October 12, 2026

 

About a year and a half ago, Hasan Piker, the left-wing activist and streamer, was hailed as the Democratic Party’s Joe Rogan—an influencer who can reach young men. A wave of gushy profiles paid more attention to Piker’s physique than to his habit of making impolitic comments. The New York Times’ entry in the genre was titled “A Progressive Mind in a Body Made for the ‘Manosphere.’”

 

Piker has since been welcomed, with notable holdouts, into the Democratic Party coalition. He has appeared with multiple Democrats on the stump, and has boasted that several others privately seek his counsel. Vanity Fair named Piker one of the 50 most influential people in America. He sees his influence as extending even to candidates who have not aligned with him publicly, pledging to pressure James Talarico to side with the left should Talarico win his Senate race in Texas. (“We have to remind him that we are the force that backed him both early on, and we are the force that allowed him to win this seat of power, and if he wants to maintain it, he’s got to play ball.”)

 

The predominant Democratic Party view of Piker was perhaps expressed by the Pod Save America host Jon Lovett, who told him last month on the liberal podcast, “My view is: I am part of a pro-democracy coalition in the fight against fascism, and it includes everyone from former Republicans like Nicolle Wallace and Tim Miller and Sarah Longwell, it includes establishment politicians, it includes Neera Tanden, it includes Shannon Watts, it includes AOC and Bernie, and it includes voices on the left like you.”

 

Piker’s stratospheric ascent—he now earns seven figures from his Twitch stream—and grandiose ambitions have made him the target of recriminations from a handful of suspicious Democratic Party moderates, as well as a recurrent villain for Fox News, which has attempted to turn him into the party’s face. Those critics have tended to recirculate a handful of Piker’s most outrageous statements, some of which—saying America deserved 9/11, and calling Orthodox Jews “inbred”—he has retracted and apologized for. Piker has complained that the mainstream media cover him but rarely deign to speak with him. Seeing that as a reasonable grievance, when he invited me on his show, I invited him to instead do an interview with The Atlantic. He accepted, before postponing the interview and then ultimately canceling it.

 

As I prepared for the interview by researching his commentary, I realized that Piker is right to complain that the handful of frequently repeated controversial statements fail to accurately represent his worldview. In fact, it’s much worse than those quotes suggest.

 

***

 

The most important problem with inviting Piker to join the pro-democracy coalition is that, by any reasonable definition of the term, he does not believe in democracy.

 

Piker declared at a debate this year, “I say we put the power back in the hands of the many rather than the power in the hands of the few. If a dictatorship is inevitable, I’d rather have it be a dictatorship of the proletariat than one that is designed around the needs of the bourgeois class.” On his Twitch stream he has said: “I love Lenin. I love Fidel Castro. And I love Che Guevara. They are genuinely fucking heroes.”

 

When asked to cite an example of socialism that he admires, Piker replied, “China is probably the closest,” while conceding that “there are still plenty of failures within the Chinese system.” Although he cites China’s economic model, rather than its single-party Communist regime, as the source of his admiration, other countries have exhibited the same rapid industrialization without attracting Piker’s fawning praise.

 

He has dismissed Mao’s campaign of mass terror as mere mistakes. “Do I believe that it was intentional? No, I don’t believe that it was intentional.” In fact, as the Brookings scholar Kenneth Lieberthal, who has taught a course on China under communism at the University of Michigan, told me, “Mao never shied away from violence among Chinese civilians to achieve his goals, and he never expressed regret for any deaths that occurred as a result of his initiatives.”

 

Piker has extensively praised economic development in North Korea, a country that he has acknowledged engages in repression, while maintaining that “it’s certainly not as bad as the way that Western media presents it.” In one segment marveling at economic development in the Stalinist kingdom, where even the slightest acts of dissent are met with confinement and torture, he said, “It is fucking mind-boggling to me that a country so fucking poor and so distraught, a country that withstood a fucking genocide, could get to this level, dude. Like, how does this not make you mad as an American citizen? How does this not fucking piss you off, where you look at this shit and you’re like, if they can do it, why the fuck can’t we?” Piker concluded by saying that North Korea’s achievement “shows you that a better future is possible for all of us.”

 

Piker does acknowledge shortcomings in the Communist regimes he defends, but treats their millions of victims as the tragic cost of progress. This contrasts with his treatment of anti-communists, which is marked by unsparing contempt. He has proclaimed his hatred for NATO on the grounds that it opposed communism: “Of course I am anti-NATO. NATO is designed with the explicit intent of being an anti-Communist institution.”

 

In one especially revealing episode, he attacked a refugee from Vietnam. Piker’s stream typically includes snippets of videos that he and his audience watch together, interspersed with his own commentary. As the video showed the refugee saying “We have endured suffering under the Communist regime,” he threw back his head in disbelief and began to rant: “Okay, fuck you, dude. I mean seriously, fuck you, old lady. Shut the fuck up, you stupid fucking idiotic old lady with your stupid fucking gamer headest. Who has fucked you harder, America or fuckin’ Ho Chi Minh? Suck my dick, old lady. Goddamn, dude. Fuck this refugee.”

 

Alongside his pro-Marxist-Leninist principles, the second pillar of Piker’s worldview is anti-Zionism. This does not distinguish him from other progressives. What does distinguish him is his belief that American Jews who do not share his position deserve punishment.

 

“In a totally just world, regardless of your background, any kind of fucking Zionist tendency should be treated in the same way as being a fucking rabid neo-Nazi,” he has said. Piker attracted attention when he recently predicted, “If Jews in America keep putting this idea out there that they are singularly invested in Israel, eventually someone is going to come around and take action—not against the state of Israel, mind you, but against American Jews.”

 

The two statements in combination have dire implications for American Jews. A recent poll found that, while about two-thirds of American Jews oppose the current Israeli-government policy toward the West Bank and Gaza, more than 70 percent describe themselves as very or somewhat emotionally attached to Israel. Piker’s argument that “any kind of fucking Zionist tendency”—which includes the many Zionists who strongly criticize Israeli policy—should be treated as akin to Nazism, and that American Jewish affinity with the Jewish state invites anti-Semitism, would justify subjecting Jewish Americans to ostracism and abuse.

 

Piker’s second and more recent comment drew predictable condemnation from several leading Democrats. Piker has depicted this response as puppetry orchestrated by the Israel lobby.

 

“Aipac boss call was made,” he wrote on X. When Neera Tanden, the president of the liberal Center for American Progress, said that Piker was not helping the Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed to win his campaign in Michigan, Piker replied, “You should probably stop highlighting and ‘legitimizing’ reactionary framing and republican attacks against abdul from a ‘nominally liberal’ perspective but i guess your donors w financial ties to tel aviv don’t want you to stop.” The notion that any opposition to his ideas must be evidence of hidden control, exercised by wealthy Jews, is a classic anti-Semitic trope.

 

***

 

Some of these comments have largely been taken as confirmation that Piker is essentially a shock jock. His defenders see these rude remarks as the unavoidable cost of having a popular media personality to amplify the Democrats’ message. “Some segments of the Democratic coalition would find Piker to be edgy, or crass, or even despicable. But, if ‘Rogan of the left’ is to mean anything, it would surely mean a higher tolerance for controversy, even at the risk of alienating parts of the base,” a New Yorker profile concluded in March 2025.

 

But unlike Rogan, who is foremost an entertainer and who lacks grounding in any serious ideology, Piker sees his work as advancing a long-term political project.

 

He tends to analyze his work most openly when he gives interviews about his Twitch stream, rather than on the program itself. When he is speaking to his audience, he falls into a frat-boy patois laden with generous helpings of profanity. When he is speaking about his show, he employs more sophisticated language and concepts.

 

“I am, at the end of the day, someone who is engaging in—and this is a Marxist term that a lot of people get mad at, because they don’t understand that propaganda is supposed to be a neutral term in its inception—but this is agitative propaganda,” Piker told Vox last month. Agitative propaganda—or, as it is more commonly known, agitprop—is a term derived from the department of agitation and propaganda, which the Soviets created in the 1920s to instill communist thinking in workers and peasants. The method is not generally known for its faithful adherence to truth and accuracy.

 

Piker describes his role as the spearhead of a long-term persuasion campaign to build power through gradual means. “I want to, through a system of, at first, modest social democratic reforms, basically claw back autonomy for the everyday person and hopefully give them more of a voice in their workplace and in the political process as well, and slowly but surely, yield more egalitarian outcomes,” he told Ross Douthat a year ago.

 

Piker frequently derides liberalism as a failed ideology. In an interview this past spring with Trevor Noah, he explained that voters who think they’re liberal are actually suffering from false consciousness.

 

“They self-identify as liberals because they don’t really understand what that means. If you were to pick apart their worldview and offer them a little bit of political education, you might find that they’re actually not liberals at all. Maybe they’re socialists, maybe they’re Marxists, maybe they have a different ideological tendency than liberalism, which is basically just the monoculture that we’ve taken for granted,” he said.

 

He considers the Democratic Party essentially a hollow shell, its governing ideology a kind of mindless vestige to which its voters have no authentic attachment, one that he and his allies can easily replace. This strategy requires Piker and his allies to gain a foothold within the party in order to ultimately capture it. He actively campaigned for several left-wing Democrats, especially El-Sayed. “During the 10 days I spent in the Midwest ahead of the primary vote, Piker was everywhere,” my colleague Helen Lewis reported.

 

When El-Sayed’s Republican opponent began to tie him to some of Piker’s more infamous remarks, Piker responded pragmatically to contain the damage. He apologized for having said that America deserved 9/11, claiming that the remark was taken out of context. He dismissed comments about hating the United States: “It’s laughable to say guys like myself, guys like Abdul El-Sayed, we hate America.” (In fact, Piker has expressed this precise sentiment, or iterations of it, many, many times.)

 

El-Sayed responded by acting as though Piker were simply a media figure to whom he had given an interview, rather than his campaign wingman. He described Piker as “a streamer in California,” and said he would have “a conversation” with any media figure with whom he disagrees, as if campaigning with someone were just like talking on Fox News.

 

Piker has cooperated with this message. He has repeatedly referred to himself as “a Twitch streamer,” mocking his critics for being so small-minded as to pay any attention to his beliefs. Republicans “centering their midterm strategy around a twitch streamer no one knows was extra dumb,” he wrote on X. His go-to line in response to any important piece of news has been to mock Democrats for complaining about his influence. In response to a story about deaths in the Iran war, he posted, “will the democrats demand accountability and transparency on this issue, or will they continue crying about a twitch streamer?”

 

The notable thing about this rhetorical pivot is that it requires Piker to belittle himself as irrelevant and unworthy of attention. That depiction hardly comports with the seriousness with which he has previously described his influence, but it does show a level of message discipline and commitment to the cause. CNN reported last week that El-Sayed had recently spoken with Piker and “warned his rhetoric was costing El-Sayed votes, asking him to stop.”

 

Do not expect Piker’s reticence to continue after Election Day. There is little reason to trust his current self-presentation as a mere Twitch streamer who is too obscure to merit discussion. He sees himself as a representative voice of a movement that can take control of a major party, and then the country itself.

 

Describing the Democratic Party to Noah, Piker said: “That’s a weak party. That’s a party that you can seize. That’s a party that you can take advantage of.” Many earnest liberals see Piker as a handy megaphone who can convey their message to an elusive constituency. Piker, however, is not so much joining the team as sizing it up as prey.

Trump’s Message to Ukraine Is Now Crystal Clear

By Anne Applebaum

Monday, October 12, 2026

 

In the past 72 hours, Donald Trump has dropped all pretense, torched a couple decades of American policy, and undermined 18 months of his own diplomacy. He lifted sanctions on the import of Russian diesel fuel, in violation of the letter and spirit of laws that he himself signed. He has threatened to stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine, unless Ukraine agrees not to target Russian refineries, thus demanding that Kyiv give up its most effective weapon while asking nothing from Russia in exchange. He has not criticized Russian attacks on Ukrainian power plants or factories, even those owned by American companies. He has offered no condolences for the recent deaths of Ukrainian children in Russian bombing raids.

 

He has lied repeatedly. He declared that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to an “energy cease-fire,” an announcement that surprised the Ukrainians and that in any case the Russians immediately broke, hitting a power plant in Kharkiv only hours later. He accused Ukraine of blocking negotiations, when in reality the Ukrainians have repeatedly proposed cease-fires and Russia has never agreed to a cease-fire or any meaningful negotiation at all.

 

He has described Ukraine’s democratically elected president as an obstacle to negotiations and told him to leave office. But on Friday, before making these new decisions, he held yet another long, friendly telephone conversation with the Russian dictator, who really could end the war today. All Vladimir Putin has to do is tell his soldiers to stop fighting, and then the war is over. The Ukrainians cannot stop fighting because, if they do, their country will be conquered and they will suffer the fate of their occupied territories: leaders murdered, children kidnapped, repression and concentration camps for everyone else. If Trump knows this, then he does not care.

 

The president has implied that the point of his new policy is to lower fuel prices for Americans. Perhaps he wants to convince voters that the cause of high prices is Ukraine and not his own war of choice in Iran. But this is not a sufficient explanation or justification for these dramatic actions. The amount of fuel that Russia could export is too small, the impact on pricing too slight, the narrative too late to shape electoral outcomes.

 

This looks, instead, like something very different: an abrupt, Hail Mary attempt to force Ukraine to surrender and to save the Russian economy, perhaps in order to finally complete the multiple business deals that the Russians are known to have discussed with American negotiators and others in Trump’s orbit. These include deals involving the Nord Stream gas pipelines, mineral mining in the Arctic, the Russian assets frozen in European banks, and more.

 

Since the beginning of Trump’s second term, American allies in Europe and elsewhere have tried to explain to the president the significance of the war and the threat that Russia poses to peace and prosperity in Europe, in the Middle East, in Africa. Now it looks as if they have failed, and Trump has followed his oldest instincts to side with Putin. What lessons will they draw?

 

The first and most obvious is: Don’t rely on the United States. America is now a capricious, unpredictable power, one whose long-standing foreign policies can be impulsively reversed, from one day to the next. The U.S. has been sanctioning Russia for many years, and now suddenly, at the whim of the president, it is not. Also: Dictators receive better treatment in Trump’s Washington than elected leaders. Canada is a far more reliable energy partner for the U.S. than Russia, and yet Trump has not sought to improve relations with the Canadian government. European security will be directly at risk in the case of a Ukrainian collapse or surrender, and yet Trump listens to Moscow, not Berlin or London.

 

Another lesson: This administration is for sale. A few days ago, The New York Times reported that, as part of peace negotiations between the U.S. and Russia, the property of Lukoil, a Russian company, may soon be acquired by a business consortium that includes Middle Eastern partners of Trump’s two lead negotiators in Ukraine, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, as well as Trump’s daughter Ivanka and Witkoff’s son. (An administration official confirmed to the Times that Kushner and Witkoff were involved in the Lukoil discussions, though there is no evidence that they will personally benefit.) The proposed deals on pipelines, minerals, and frozen assets are also still on the table. Even if none of them is ever completed, the mere fact that Trump’s negotiators discuss them gives the Russian regime reason to believe that it can continue the war with impunity.

 

However, democracies can cooperate without the American president. Ukraine will continue fighting, and will probably continue striking Russian refineries, thanks to its friends in Europe and beyond. French intelligence, German weaponry, and broad packages of aid from Scandinavia, Poland, and elsewhere will help. Everyone else should take note. For the past couple years, Europeans, Canadians, and the Pacific democracies have been building deeper commercial and security links with one another, as well as with India and Latin America. They’ve just been given another reason to make those links stronger.

 

The Trump-Russia relationship remains intense, important, and very weird. In the end, Trump always adopts Russia’s perspective, whoever the leader. Since his first trip to Moscow in 1987, when it was still the Soviet Union, he has loudly repeated Russian propaganda and reflected Russian views. Upon returning from that trip, he took out full-page advertisements in three newspapers, attacking American alliances in Europe and Asia. For nearly 40 years, he has been saying much the same thing. He has changed his mind about abortion and crypto, he has supported different political parties at different times, but his dislike of America’s democratic allies and his preference for Russia have remained remarkably consistent.

 

He continues to hold these views in defiance of the American military and American intelligence, as well as majorities in the country and in Congress. Immediately after his statement on diesel and his comments about Volodymyr Zelensky, a bipartisan cohort of U.S. representatives and senators attacked the deal and vowed to reverse it. Earlier today, U.S. Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich, America’s highest-ranking soldier in Europe and the top NATO commander—a job always held by an American—delivered a very different message to Russia. Speaking at a security conference in Warsaw, Grynkewich said that any attack on NATO, something many now genuinely fear, would be met with overwhelming force: “We will stop the attack and deny them the ability to achieve their ​objectives, whatever those ​might be. We will, ⁠in short, ensure any attack, against any ally, proves utterly futile.” He implied that there would be massive retaliation targeting “anything and everything that supports, sustains, and controls” an aggressive force.

 

This is the kind of language that, if it also came from the White House, might deter Russia from expanding its current campaign of sabotage and cyberattacks in Europe, from continuing to aid Iran, or from committing war crimes in Ukraine. But this president absolutely refuses to use it, and at this point, we have to assume he never will.

In Defense of Anthropic’s Chatbot-Bullying Ban

By Charles C. W. Cooke

Monday, October 12, 2026

 

Anthropic, which develops the artificial intelligence product Claude, has made a change to its terms and conditions. As of November 12, users will be prohibited from engaging in “sustained and needless” abuse or bullying when conversing with its chatbots. I regard this shift as I view many of Anthony Kennedy’s Supreme Court opinions: I am deeply suspicious of the reasoning — much of which is grounded in incomprehensible claptrap about the ineffable mysteries of the universe — but I am comfortable with the result nevertheless. There is no good reason for a private company to permit its customers to be awful when using its service.

 

I have long been of the view that one should refrain from bullying AI chatbots — not for the AI chatbots’ sake, but for one’s own. I do not believe that AI chatbots are conscious, or ensouled, or that they contain the “spark” of divinity, or any of that guff. I do think, however, that because AI chatbots approximate human interaction, how one interacts with them can be habit-forming in other realms. Some of Anthropic’s critics have suggested that it is as irrational to worry about shouting at an AI chatbot as it would be to worry about shouting at a hammer. I disagree. Unlike AI chatbots, I do not converse with hammers in my native language. I am no expert in the human brain, but it seems entirely possible to me that, if I were to grow accustomed to bullying or abusing my nonhuman interlocutors, this could spill over into my interactions with my human interlocutors, too. I do not want that to happen.

 

A more sophisticated critique of my position is that the “habits” with which I am concerned actually militate in the opposite direction. In this view, when one declines to torment an AI chatbot — or even when one says “please” and “thank you” — one gets into the dangerous habit of elevating it to human status and thus, ultimately, of diminishing the unique worth of human beings. My problem with this contention is that, AI aside, we have always drawn reasonable distinctions between the nature and purpose of nonhuman entities, and we have always drawn different conclusions from how human beings treat those nonhuman entities. A child who repeatedly pulls apart wooden chairs is — and ought to be — treated differently than a child who repeatedly pulls apart dolls that have been made to look like babies. Likewise, a child who repeatedly pulls apart dolls that have been made to look like babies is — and ought to be — treated differently than a child who repeatedly pulls apart live butterflies. We can debate where an AI chatbot falls on this scale of nonhumans, but we should not pretend that there is no symbolic difference between a rock and a teddy bear. There is a reason, after all, that human beings constructed voodoo dolls and not voodoo hammers. Does anyone really believe that the jump from shouting at one’s dishwasher to shouting at one’s waiter is as short as the jump from shouting at one’s AI chatbot to shouting at one’s waiter? I do not.

 

As ever, this devil will lie in the details. If Anthropic excludes abusive users in an entirely agnostic manner, its policy will have a salutary effect. If, as Twitter and Facebook once did, it uses its rule as cover for banning those who have political or religious beliefs with which it disagrees, it will not be worth the tradeoff. It makes sense for Anthropic to prevent abusive users from helping to train its product. It does not make sense for Anthropic to prevent unorthodox users from helping to train its product.

 

The ideal, however, is a polite society in which all are welcome to share their views. Because Anthropic’s new rule gestures at this aim, I welcome it. There is enough unpleasantness on the internet.

Trump’s Dumb Diesel Deal with Russia

By Noah Rothman

Monday, October 12, 2026

 

Late last Friday, David Frum pointedly proposed a compelling alternative to the Trump administration’s deal with Vladimir Putin’s regime:

 

The image depicts a quote by David Frum, discussing the implications of a hypothetical increase in US diesel imports from Canada and suggesting Russia as a preferable alternative.

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

 

Apparently, it was such a good idea that everyone took Frum up on it.

 

On Sunday, Ottawa announced that, after coordinating with the U.S., it will maximize oil and diesel fuel exports to the United States to ease domestic supply constraints. That’s quite a reversal from Trump’s long-stated belief that the U.S. doesn’t need Canadian energy imports. It also underscores what a blunder it was for the president to sidle up to Putin, hat in hand, soliciting his own share of Russia’s illicit petroleum products.

 

What set Frum off in the first place was Trump’s announcement that he had persuaded Putin to release hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel in the near term — and millions going forward — “to address concerns over rising energy costs due to the global fuel shortage.”

 

The president seemed quite pleased with what he believed was a deft political maneuver the American people would welcome. But because the deal came at a time when Moscow continues to rain deadly bombs and missiles down on the Ukrainian people, and as it engineers “grey zone” terrorist attacks inside NATO countries — including inside the U.S. — the reaction to Trump’s deal with Putin wasn’t what he had expected.

 

Seven senators, including four Republicans, attacked the arrangement and its contempt for the law. Congress, they reminded the president, “explicitly banned Russian energy imports in 2022 to prevent American dollars from financing Putin’s brutal war against Ukraine.” Senator John Kennedy observed that Putin “will never be our friend” and called on Trump to “end the war in Iran” to bring energy costs down. The president’s approach “will only fund the Kremlin’s war machine,” Representative Michael McCaul noted, “emboldening more violence and destruction.” Representative Brian Fitzpatrick pledged to block “any and all purchases of Russian oil” via emergency legislation.

 

Trump’s pursuit of a lifeline from Russia will ease the financial pressure on Moscow. But it’s not clear where the White House’s conspicuous warmth toward Putin ends and its skepticism toward Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky begins.

 

Axios reported this weekend that the Putin deal comes as the White House’s patience with Zelensky has reached a nadir. The administration has, after all, asked Kyiv over and over to halt its long-range strikes targeting Russia’s refinery capacity. “Zelensky is misreading the room,” one U.S. official said. “By continuing to hit refineries, he is eroding the goodwill that he has built with Trump over the last six months.”

 

This is more than a presidential temper tantrum. Over the weekend, the Financial Times revealed that administration officials warned Kyiv and its European allies that Washington may stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine and providing arms procured for it through the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL). Europe is, understandably, up in arms over the threat. But beyond the sacrifice of American moral authority, the tactical advantages Washington provides to America’s adversaries in the Kremlin, and the degree to which the agreement has alienated Trump’s allies, both foreign and domestic, the math doesn’t make sense.

 

“The price tag for these weapons is in the billions of dollars (upwards of $6.7 billion to date), orders of magnitude higher than what the Russian diesel deal is worth,” the prolific conflict analyst Michael Weiss observed. “Trump would be losing money — and costing the American defense industry revenue — for a sham deal with Russia that benefits none outside of Moscow and Miami.”

 

Moreover, energy industry analysts expect the agreement to have a modest impact on gasoline and diesel prices. “The best you could hope for is a tiny dip in prices locally in places like the New York-New Jersey area, Philadelphia maybe,” the Energy Policy Research Foundation’s Michael Lynch told the Washington Post. “It just means that the oil is just going to be shuffled around and it’s not really going to change the price globally or across the U.S.” In other words, there will be no relief for “our great farmers, ranchers, and truckers,” as Trump promised.

 

Zelensky himself concurred:

 

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, during a presentation, questions the impact of Russia's diesel export volume on global prices, highlighting that global consumption is significantly higher.

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

 

In sum, the agreement will do little to relieve the financial pain voters are experiencing. It has only exacerbated tensions between the White House and its allies abroad. It reinforces the impression that this administration is sympathetic to the despot in the Kremlin — a political liability — and it forces Republicans on the ballot this November to distance themselves from the unpopular head of their party.

 

Why did Trump do this again?

Trump’s Diesel Deal with Putin Is a Gross Abuse of Power

By Andrew C. McCarthy

Monday, October 12, 2026

 

President Trump’s atrocious oil deal with Vladimir Putin, his friend and America’s foe, is impeachable flim-flam.

 

It’s a fraud on the American people — a desperate, futile attempt to address Trump’s self-inflicted wound of high diesel prices. We produce around 5 million barrels of diesel per day yet consume less than 4 mb/d. The excess makes us the world’s top diesel exporter, helping ease the energy crunch in Latin America and Europe. Russia, in stark contrast, has collapsed as an exporter. Putting aside the more appalling aspects of this deal — a gift to Putin, requiring no concessions on his part — we are apparently supposed to believe that Russia, whose energy sector is in such disrepair it was importing diesel from South Korea this summer, is going to be our savior exporter.

 

Putin is a war criminal. In his war of aggression against Ukraine, he has repeatedly scoffed at the peace pleas of Trump’s hapless emissaries — principally, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and business partner Steve Witkoff. This weekend, Putin blithely persisted in his barbaric attacks on civilians, even as Trump (a) announced the diesel deal, (b) claimed there is a Russia/Ukraine “energy ceasefire” agreement that no one has seen (and that, if it exists, Ukraine says Russia is massively violating), and (c) called for Ukraine to replace its president on pain of losing access to American intelligence (all this atop the administration’s periodic calls for Ukraine to surrender and threats to cut off munitions support). The Kremlin’s strategy for achieving the conquest that has eluded Moscow on the front lines is to freeze civilians during Ukraine’s harsh winter; hence, the continued bombings of the electric grid, fuel production facilities, and even a gas station . . . complementing Putin’s habitual attacks on residential buildings and public buses.

 

Ukraine has countered with a very effective drone campaign against the oil production facilities that feed Moscow’s war machine. Moreover, sanctions have squeezed Russia’s oil industry — and would continue to do so if the president, by his gift of a diesel deal to Putin, were not signaling to the world that the Trump administration is not serious about sanctions — even as Trump just made a show of signing the Lindsey Graham bill to strengthen sanctions.

 

The reason diesel prices are high at the pump is not a lack of U.S. supply. Plus, even if Russia, in its depleted state, had the wherewithal to export significant quantities of diesel, the amounts Trump heralded in announcing his deal with Putin are trifling. As Forbes’s Erik Sherman explains, the first shipment Trump spoke of, 300,000 tons, computes to a total of about 2.2 million barrels of diesel. By itself (i.e., setting aside other U.S. diesel consumption), the American transportation sector uses about 3 million barrels of diesel daily. That is, the first shipment wouldn’t get us through a single day.

 

Now, given the damaged state of its production facilities and its fuel-intensive warmongering, it is unlikely that Russia will any time soon be poised to ship 4.8 million tons of diesel, the total of all shipments contemplated in the Trump/Putin deal (from now through early April 2027). But even if it could, Sherman notes that this would compute to a total of 35.5 million barrels — less than what the U.S. uses in just ten days. And mind you, Trump said the Russian shipments were intended to ease the strain on “the Global Marketplace,” not just the American market. Ergo, the deal (in the unlikely event Russia could produce the amount Trump has floated) would not reduce prices — not before the midterms and probably not ever.

 

While the Trump/Putin deal portends no economic benefits for the United States (and is profoundly counterproductive overall — more on that momentarily), it is an absolute coup for Putin. It will provide billions of dollars in revenue for the anti-American dictator’s coffers. Even worse, as Trump well knows, Putin uses the military and intelligence assets acquired from revenue to commit war crimes in Ukraine and abet Iranian attacks on the United States. And another bonus for the Kremlin: In one fell swoop, Trump is both dismantling the American sanction weapon that has wounded Putin and conveying to other nations that they should be doing business with Moscow, not sanctioning and isolating it.

 

Since there’s nothing but downside for the U.S. in this deal, why is the president doing it? Two reasons, I suspect.

 

First, it might suggest to voters that Trump is taking real steps to reduce the prices his unilaterally imposed policies have caused. Any resulting misimpression on this score will prove fleeting because the prices will not decrease. Indeed, the probability is higher prices because the war Trump started against Iran without seeking congressional authorization or public buy-in is heating up again. Putin’s ally Iran has stepped up attacks in the Strait of Hormuz; that increases shipment costs exorbitantly even when crude oil gets through. Moreover, Iran’s allies, the Houthis, are now in a full-fledged war with Saudi Arabia, terrorizing Red Sea shipments (formerly the Saudis’ alternative to transit in Hormuz) and pummeling Saudi production and transportation infrastructure. In sum, the war Trump started without thinking through the consequences is the cause of high energy prices; the war Putin started in Europe is irrelevant on that score — notwithstanding Trump’s malevolent efforts to blame Ukraine for both Putin’s aggression and high diesel prices.

 

As a number of commentators have pointed out, if Trump were really concerned about the price burden on Americans (and the midterm prospects of Republicans), he could simply end his imbecilic trade war with Canada, our ally and neighbor. Because of the complexities of the global diesel market, as well as such inane American policies as the Jones Act and the discouragement of new refining capacity, we do import some diesel despite being a net exporter. The vast majority of those imports come from Canada — from which we could easily import more if necessary without violating sanctions laws and lending comfort to our Russian enemy. But Trump being Trump, he’d rather appease Putin than admit that his trade policies antagonize our allies while crushing Americans.

 

The second reason for doing the diesel deal with Putin is, as ever, corruption. In early October, the New York Times reported that Trump is working on an even more execrable multibillion-dollar oil deal with Putin: The U.S. would waive sanctions so that an investor group could buy up oil fields, refineries, and gas stations around the world that are owned by Lukoil, the Russian energy giant. The deal has been negotiated by Trump’s aforementioned emissaries, Kushner and Witkoff. Among the major beneficiaries are said to be one of Trump’s major donors (Todd Boehly, who has donated $2 million to Trump political causes) and Middle Eastern executives who have business ties to Trump, Kushner, and Witkoff. These include Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al Nahyan, the top security official of the United Arab Emirates — who, as I detailed in a series earlier this year, is a part owner of the Trump and Witkoff families’ crypto enterprise, into which Tahnoon has poured $2.5 billion. (That enterprise is the main explanation for the jaw-dropping increase in Trump’s net worth during his second term in “public service” — well over $2 billion in just 20 months.)

 

Obviously, Trump has an abiding interest in eroding the U.S. sanctions regime against Putin. The wheeling and dealing he and his business associates are trying to pull off would be far more lucrative if Russian assets Putin is poised to peddle are out from under sanctions. The Trump/Putin diesel deal erodes the sanctions.

 

It is also illegal . . . probably.

 

By overwhelming margins in 2022 — 100–0 in the Senate, 413–9 in the House — Congress enacted the Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act. The legislation bans U.S. imports of Russian diesel unless the president certifies that Russia has reached an agreement to withdraw its forces from Ukraine, that Ukraine has accepted such an agreement, and that Russia no longer poses a threat to either NATO countries or Ukraine’s self-determination. Even for Trump, such a certification would be impossible (including the NATO component, with Putin increasing his provocations on that score, too).

 

Alas, as usual, Congress was allergic to taking an accountable position: The 2022 act includes weasel language that says the ban on diesel imports is to work in conjunction with existing executive procedures for implementing sanctions. (This is to allow lawmakers to claim both that they punished Russia and that they have not tied the president’s hands in dealing with Russia.) Despite the ban, then, the administration will undoubtedly argue that the enabling license the Trump Treasury Department has issued to waive restrictions on Russian diesel is consistent with those existing executive procedures. Plainly, the license is not consistent with an import ban, but Trump officials will counter that they are just temporarily waiving sanctions not nullifying them — a statutory ban cannot be repealed by a license, regulation, or executive order.

 

There are other statutory provisions that apply, including one Trump grudgingly signed into law in his first term — the 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, which requires prior notification to Congress before major changes in Russia policy. And the above-described 2022 ban on diesel imports mandates that the president consult with Congress 45 days prior to submitting any certification that waives the ban. As is his wont, Trump acted unilaterally and did not consult Congress, much less submit a certification. Still, the legislative waters are muddy; despite the insistence of some lawmakers from both parties that Trump has violated the law, that will not be easy to establish.

 

What is straightforward, though, statute or no statute, is that the president of the United States is empowering and emboldening a murderous anti-American regime even as it persists in a war of aggression, savage war crimes, provocations of America’s allies that verge on acts of war, and the provision of intelligence and assets to Iran that the latter uses in its warfare against the United States. Regardless of whether statutes have been transgressed, President Trump is grossly abusing the executive power entrusted in him.

El-Sayed’s Trouble with Minority Voters

By Noah Rothman

Monday, October 12, 2026

 

It seemed to me that, while Mike Rogers delivered an underwhelming performance on last Thursday night’s debate stage, he probably succeeded in his effort to incept concerns in viewers’ minds about Abdul El-Sayed’s judgment and loyalties. The Jewish Insider reinforced that impression when it asked Michigan’s Jewish Democrats how they felt about the conduct of the Democratic Senate candidate.

 

“He’s not really made any accommodations whatsoever” to Michigan’s Jews, said prominent Democratic fundraiser David Kramer, “and the debate was just the latest example.” Kramer added that he’s hearing from his fellow Jewish Michiganders the general belief that El-Sayed is “absolutely showing who he is.” Michigan Democratic Party Central Committee member Joan Lowenstein agreed. Debate watchers “didn’t get anything new about what El-Sayed thinks, or what he was willing to do for Jewish safety,” she said, “not at all.” Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus secretary Zach Nessel (who is the son of Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel), agonized over the choice before Michigan Democrats. “It was a sorry excuse not to stand up for our community three years after the Oct. 7 attack,” he said of El-Sayed’s refusal to honor the anniversary of the October 7 massacre. But then, perhaps the candidate’s silence was preferable. “I don’t think anything he would say would have been true to his values and probably would have been inflammatory,” Nessel added.

 

Influential as its individual members may be, Michigan’s Jewish community is small. Although he seems to have thoroughly alienated them, that does not spell defeat for El-Sayed in November. The candidate’s problems with the Wolverine State’s black voters are, however, another matter.

 

Longtime political analyst Ron Brownstein recently recalled a moment just prior to the state’s Democratic primary in which he found himself in a “black church in Detroit” where El-Sayed was “excoriated” from the pulpit. The church’s minister “said he was more concerned about Gaza than Detroit,” Brown observed. That mistrust persists.

 

Kamala Harris has already parachuted into the state to campaign on El-Sayed’s behalf, though her power to persuade Michiganders didn’t amount to much two years ago. Barack Obama will follow suit next week, and the former president has cut a 60-second spot endorsing “Doctor” Sayed. But while Democrats still believe that Obama’s popularity can transfer to other politicians, that has almost never been borne out in electoral results. What’s more, no one should expect the Democratic Party’s heavyweights to paper over the black community’s displeasure with El-Sayed or the constituencies he’s perceived to represent.

 

“They expect us to come get in lockstep and like him,” Detroit-area commentator Adolph Mongo told NewsNation. Mongo believes, NewsNation wrote, “that some Arab American political leaders have not sufficiently supported Black candidates or invested in the Black community.”

 

Writing for The Guardian, longtime columnist Charles Blow detected a similar discontent with El-Sayed among black Michiganders. Attorney Christopher Burtley, the chairman of Michigan’s black leadership advisory council, “says that the overwhelming feeling he detects toward El-Sayed from the Black community in Flint is ‘unfamiliarity,’” Blow reported, adding:

 

Phyllis Sykes, founder and executive director of the International Center of Greater Flint, and Burtley’s cohost at the meeting, chimed in: “People were on the fence. . . . I don’t think he has really been plugged into the African American network or whatever here like I know he has with some of the international populations.” None of that bodes well just a month out from election day. Both Burtley and Sykes are supporters of El-Sayed.

 

Then there’s the Hispanic vote. The New Yorker reported earlier this month that some of the El-Sayed’s allies fretted that he had not formalized his campaign’s outreach to Hispanic voters early enough, and they warn that he talks too much about abolishing ICE at the expense of “cost-of-living issues.”

 

In the August primary, El-Sayed performed strongest both in youngish urban precincts and “majority-Hispanic areas.” Progressive activist groups claim that the primary “saw an increase of 13% to 18% in Latino turnout compared to the 2022 primary,” suggesting the Hispanic vote is “fertile ground” for El-Sayed’s campaign to till. But El-Sayed will soon welcome another progressive celebrity with a conspicuous agenda to the state, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Beyond rallying with the candidate in college towns, AOC will host a “Latinos for Abdul” event in Detroit.

 

Unlike in previous cycles, high-quality polling has been scarce. The Senate race in Michigan is no exception. The last reliable poll of the race, Fox News’ late-September survey, found El-Sayed with a one-point lead over Mike Rogers but still winning with a narrow (50 percent) majority of the vote. And yet, that poll showed El-Sayed earning just 46 percent of white voters, 77 percent of black voters, and 68 percent of the “non-white” vote.

 

When Senator Elise Slotkin just barely won her 2024 race, by only 76,000 of the 5.4 million votes cast, according to the exit polling, she did so with the support of 44 percent of white voters (who made up 76 percent of the electorate), 40 percent of Hispanics (6 percent of all voters), and 85 percent of blacks (11 percent). In Fox’s poll, El-Sayed is winning 54 percent of the female vote and 49 percent of self-described independents. Slotkin won 53 percent of women in 2024 and 51 percent of independents.

 

These core constituencies will make or break El-Sayed’s political career. Right now, the candidate has more pathways to victory than Rogers, but not nearly as many as he’d probably like.

 

“If they want to make me the main character in the midterms, I’m not shying away from it,” El-Sayed told the Los Angeles Times in a recent interview. “Run against me. See how well that works out for you.” Given his middling performance in the polls, even as gusty tailwinds boost Democratic prospects almost across the board, Republicans might want to take El-Sayed up on that offer. Rogers needs to transform Michigan’s Senate race from a referendum on Donald Trump’s presidency into an up-or-down vote on El-Sayed’s fitness for office.

 

If the polls are right, Michiganders aren’t sold on El-Sayed. It remains to be seen whether Rogers can capitalize on their trepidation.

Sunday, October 11, 2026

Resisting the Nazis Was the West’s Finest Hour

By Michael Lucchese

Sunday, October 11, 2026

 

Disgraced ex–Fox News host Tucker Carlson has fully descended into the fever swamps of conspiracy theorism, from bizarre claims about UFOs to insidious, antisemitic allegations about the “Israel lobby.” Among the most persistent of his absurd ideas, though, is the notion that World War II somehow brought on the collapse of Western civilization.

 

Carlson has been making the claim for years, seemingly as part of an argument against continued U.S. support for allies such as Ukraine and Israel. In many respects, it seems that he has cribbed his arguments from the thoroughly debunked work of populist firebrand Pat Buchanan. Plenty of scholars — from Lord Andrew Roberts to members of Hillsdale College’s Churchill Project — have ably refuted Carlson’s erroneous claims. Anyone with an ounce of common sense realizes that standing up to Adolf Hitler’s mad ideology was an act of civilizational greatness.

 

Most recently, Carlson pressed the case in an interview with Jacob Rees-Mogg, a former Tory minister, who easily deconstructed it. The fact that the podcaster persists in making it is evidence that he has lost touch with the conservative movement he supposedly represents. Heroes of the American right, from Russell Kirk to Ronald Reagan, understood the folly of appeasing the Nazi regime and advocated a strong foreign policy to preserve the world order that emerged after World War II.

 

Today, the United States faces threats almost as complex and dangerous. Conservatives have a responsibility to reject the voices of appeasement and retreatism, especially as so many come from the far right. The Democratic Party of Barack Obama and Joe Biden proved incapable of checking Vladimir Putin, the Iranian ayatollahs, and the Chinese Communist Party; if conservatives do not rouse the opposition, the world may very well fall into a new dark age of multipolarity and geopolitical instability. We cannot afford to heed the conspiratorial ravings of Carlson and his ilk.

 

At the height of the Cold War, an earlier generation of conservatives looked on those who stood fast against Nazism as models to emulate. Take the traditionalist thinker Richard Weaver — most known for Ideas Have Consequences, his 1948 jeremiad against progressivism. In his writings against totalitarianisms of the left and right alike, he frequently cited Winston Churchill as the greatest statesman of the age. In his 1953 book, The Ethics of Rhetoric, for example, he argued that the prime minister’s famous speeches during the war recovered the notions of chivalry and patriotism that provided the strength necessary to overcome the revolutionary schemes of the worst kinds of tyrants. Indeed, Weaver and other Cold Warriors believed that the appeasement policies Churchill prophetically thundered against were the betrayal of Western civilization. “Britain and France had come to prefer as leaders the rhetoricless businessman type,” Weaver wrote, and “had thus emasculated themselves.”

 

Before and during World War II, fascist and communist movements on the continent manipulated the masses with the politics of utopian promises. Many in the Anglo-American democracies were tempted as well, and leaders who should have known better cowered in the face of the threat. “For while the world must move, evil rhetoric is of more force than no rhetoric at all,” Weaver wrote, “and Herr Hitler, employing images which rested on no true dialectic, had persuaded multitudes that his order was the ‘new order.’” What made Churchill great where other men failed was that he denied the notion that the West’s decline was necessary. Weaver would have thoroughly agreed with American journalist Edward R. Murrow’s quip that the statesman “mobilized the English language and sent it into battle.” Especially during the Battle of Britain, Churchill used his position in the House of Commons to remind the British nation of the permanent things at the heart of civilization that are worth fighting for.

 

Concepts others had dismissed as dusty relics of a bygone age — honor, tradition, freedom itself — were alive in the hearts and minds of the brave people on the front lines of World War II. In one particularly stirring speech, Churchill even compared the brave pilots of the Royal Air Force to the Knights of the Round Table. For them, he said, “Every morn brought forth a noble chance and every chance brought forth a noble deed.”

 

Of course, Churchill was not the only traditionalist who set his face against the terrible ideologies of the 20th century. While it is true that some American conservatives, such as William F. Buckley Jr., favored isolationism at the very outset of the war, they quickly reversed course as the true extent of Hitler’s ambitions became clear. And outside of the elite, American conservatives overwhelming opposed abandoning Europe to the darkness of totalitarianism. In a 1944 essay, later collected in a Liberty Fund edition of his writings, Weaver argued that the American South “was the first section of the United States to sense an enemy in fascism” precisely because of the South’s traditionalism.

 

Weaver wrote that the agrarians saw through the lies of appeasement and isolation because they “perceived intuitively that the new radicalisms of Europe represent a final assault upon society as that term has been understood in Western civilization.” Unlike Neville Chamberlain or the America Firsters of the late 1930s, the South at the time “never took the businessman’s attitude toward this threat” because its people “realized that as soon as the first encroachment is made, the battle is on, and there can be no cessation until a victor has been decided.” Hundreds of thousands of conservative Southerners volunteered to liberate Europe as a counterrevolutionary mission.

 

That traditionalism remains strong in America. To this day, Southern states remain highly overrepresented in the U.S. military compared with states in other regions. And as much as Carlson and other isolationists might bleat that the youth favors “restraint,” polling shows that young people — including very large numbers of young conservatives — support a strong foreign policy and America’s traditional alliances. The old verities that have been at the heart of the conservative movement still live, even if the media elite and populist establishment seem to doubt them.

 

Carlson is wrong — resisting the Nazis was not civilizational suicide. It was the West’s finest hour. The problem is that the foreign policy blob in Washington and the chattering extremists on social media have, like their predecessors in the 1930s, become the “rhetoricless businessman type.” They lack the animating faith that saved our civilization from fascism and communism, and they are therefore ill-equipped to do anything besides counsel despair. True conservatives are not ready to join them.