Saturday, August 29, 2026

Laughingstock America

By Nick Catoggio

Friday, August 28, 2026

 

Today marks six months since our four-to-five-week war on Iran began. The president’s approval in the matter has sunk below 35 percent. Emboldened by America’s provocative weakness, Russia may be preparing to attack NATO. Yet, somehow, Donald Trump is preoccupied with …

 

… actually, we’ll come back to that. A proper analysis pegged to the current news cycle of how pathetic the United States has become under populism should start not with the Great Lakes but with the Pentagon.

 

A few days ago the Washington Post supplied new evidence in the curious case of Gen. Randy George, the respected Army chief of staff who was fired in the thick of the war earlier this year. The New York Times alleged in April that George was ousted in part because he wouldn’t rescind the recommendations for promotion he had made on behalf of several officers, two of them black and two of them women, which in Pete Hegseth’s “anti-DEI” military made them presumptively unqualified. The defense secretary allegedly wanted them taken off the promotion list, George refused, and that was that. He was gone.

 

According to the Post, though, there may have been another factor in his dismissal: “Days before the Army’s top officer was abruptly fired earlier this year, he was advised by a fellow general now vying to replace him to stop the military’s investigation into an unauthorized helicopter flyby of musician Kid Rock’s Tennessee estate, three people familiar with the matter said.”

 

That fellow general was Chris LaNeve, who’s advanced meteorically up the ranks since January 2025 by distinguishing himself as an enthusiastic Trump ass-kisser. LaNeve allegedly told George that Hegseth was unhappy that a probe into the Kid Rock flyby had been opened and wanted it canceled, which “troubled” George per the Post’s sources. But it was canceled, and the defense secretary trumpeted its cancellation on social media.

 

Then, a few weeks later, he celebrated again by commandeering a pair of Apaches for him and Kid Rock to joyride around in.

 

Punishing Randy George for resisting the culture of impunity that Hegseth hopes to instill in the military is evil stuff, one of several reasons the latter is the worst defense chief—and plausibly the worst Cabinet member—in U.S. history. What elevates the incident from standard-issue fascism to a vignette about America’s new global laughingstock status is that it revolves around a tawdry celebrity has-been whom no one without a political motive to do so pretends to take seriously.

 

Firing a capable officer like Randy George is bad. Firing him because he didn’t show proper respect for Kid Rock is so unbearably humiliating for the United States that I feel it in my chest.

 

“Shameful” isn’t the right word, as shame implies a sense of guilt over some serious offense for which you feel directly or indirectly responsible—and, to be sure, the Trump administration routinely acts in ways that fit that bill. The George episode isn’t so much shameful as it is pathetic. It betrays a bratty juvenile fatuousness that’s only possible in political leaders who fundamentally don’t grasp, or actively disdain, the concept of dignity.

 

America has had periods of weakness in my lifetime (whatabout Jimmy Carter?), but it’s never been a laughingstock, let alone one that regularly and gratuitously communicates to the rest of the planet why it shouldn’t be respected. Until now.

 

Which brings us to “Lake America.”

 

Bookends.

 

Formally changing the name of Lake Ontario (within the executive branch, anyway) is the presidential preoccupation du jour to which I alluded above. War, inflation, a mushrooming public panic over AI data centers: All of it had to wait yesterday as Trump bore down on the more urgent task of rechristening the smallest of the Great Lakes “Lake America.”

 

It wasn’t the first time that he’s undertaken to rename a local body of water in a flourish of nationalist chauvinism and, if some of the noisier chuds in his fan base have their way, it won’t be the last. But not every right-winger received the news as enthusiastically as they did the “Gulf of Mexico” rebrand last year. One Republican candidate in a northern border state reassured voters there that he’ll continue to refer to the lake as “Lake Ontario.” And a major influencer in the chud space complained that it was silly for America to disclaim a moniker that’s existed longer than America itself has.

 

The “Gulf of America” and “Lake America” episodes are actually useful bookends to Trump’s presidency (so far).

 

He issued his order renaming the former on Inauguration Day 2025 as a gesture to mark nationalism’s triumphant return to power. In hindsight, it was an early warning from the president about how he intended to throw the United States’ weight around in its near-abroad even if doing so overturned tradition. If he was willing to erase the Gulf of Mexico, he seemed to imply, he might be willing to act boldly in other ways that our neighbors—like Venezuela, and Cuba, and Greenland, and Canada—wouldn’t like.

 

The posture for the “Lake America” nonsense is different. If the “Gulf of America” rebrand was a declaration of triumph, the targeting of Lake Ontario is a declaration of defeat. It was inspired, of course, by the stupid-even-for-him new trade war the president has launched against Canada. Canadians are emphatically behind Prime Minister Mark Carney in prosecuting that conflict while Americans, just as emphatically, are not behind Trump. As politicians across the spectrum up north mock him for his childishness and invite him to kiss their ass, the only U.S. politicians who seem to want to take sides in the matter are Democrats. Who are … also mocking him for his childishness and, more or less, inviting him to kiss their ass.

 

Under those circumstances, changing the name of Lake Ontario reeks of impotence and humiliation. It’s transparently an act of spite by a man-baby who’s lashing out after failing to get his way. And it’s a boost for his domestic opponents on the left, who already planned to campaign this fall on the idea that the president is too absorbed with trivial idiocy like ballrooms—and now lakes—to address the problems he was elected to solve.

 

The “Gulf of America” trolling was an act of strength at a moment when Trump’s approval was above 50 percent and before he’d disappointed anyone. The “Lake America” idiocy is an act of pitiful weakness at a moment when his approval is below 40. It’s “cover your eyes”-tier pathetic, and the muted reaction to it in Chudworld suggests that even they know it. If there’s a trace of dignity left in right-wing populism after 10 years of degradation, the president might have at last found a way to wound it.

 

Which is amazing when you realize that changing the lake’s name wasn’t even the most pathetic thing he did yesterday.

 

A case study.

 

The essential point about the “Lake America” episode, though, is that it isn’t a departure for Trumpist government. It’s a case study of its pathologies.

 

Renaming things is a logical expression of the same impulses that have caused the president to devote 70 percent of his mental energy toward building monuments and ordering renovations around the capital, in the estimation of New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman. His desire for a legacy that can’t be expunged by his enemies after he’s gone has led him to focus on changing landscapes and maps, and his fetish for dominance has led him to be imperious about it. The cost of living might be important to you, but being remembered is important to him—and guess whose priorities come first in that scenario.

 

Be happy he’s not giving it the Kennedy Center treatment by changing the name to “Lake America, as presented by Donald J. Trump.”

 

It’s also a case of Trump using state power to try to coerce changes to the culture, one of his most authoritarian traits. That’s a core premise of postliberalism: If you can’t persuade businesses and schools to drop racial diversity programs or support for transgender rights, you can win control of the government and squeeze them by the throat financially until they do. That’s what separates yesterday’s patheticness from the right’s embrace of “freedom fries” to spite France in the early days of the Iraq war. “Freedom fries” was an informal grassroots (and ultimately failed) attempt to change the culture by pressuring people not to use the word “French.”

 

But “Lake America”? That’s an official order from the president. Let the culture take note.

 

And of course, Thursday’s stupidity was also an obvious example of the president letting personal pique drive policy. Scrubbing the name “Ontario” off a body of water to try to antagonize Canadians isn’t going to make them more agreeable to trade concessions. The opposite: It’s an attempt to injure their national pride, the same way the “51st state” jabs are, which will cause them to dig in. To call it bad strategy is to pay it a compliment. It isn’t strategy at all. It’s a middle finger.

 

And it may have consequences for America in the long-term. Chatter has picked up in Ottawa and overseas about Canada potentially joining the European Union; if that happens, and if the United States continues on its postliberal trajectory, in a few decades we might have an understandably hostile liberal adversary on our northern border that’s backed by the military might of a fully rearmed Europe. Play out that scenario however you like.

 

Petulance, narcissism, and bullying that, as often as not, ends up with us punching ourselves in the face: Those are the hallmarks of how a thoroughly undignified nation does business now, and not just with respect to the Great Lakes. Pathetic. A laughingstock.

 

Luxury nationalism.

 

It’s fair to ask here whether the “Lake America” embarrassment is due to something inherent in populist nationalism or something specific to the president himself. Not every prominent nationalist, if handed executive power, would stoop to such pettiness, right?

 

I do think that’s right. In many ways Tucker Carlson is an uglier figure than Trump, yet I can’t imagine President Tucker bothering with juvenilia like renaming Lake Ontario to try to irritate Canadians. (Although “Lake Russia” does have a ring to it.)

 

Even President J.D. Vance would probably be above such things. One can’t be sure about that, as the vice president also regularly embarrasses his country by behaving in aggressively undignified ways. But I suspect that he too wouldn’t trifle with trollish stupidity like renaming bodies of water, or at least wouldn’t do so as frequently as Trump does.

 

Partly it’s a function of personality, as the president is immensely vain and unusually fragile. In the same way that I doubt President Vance will have a “human printer” following him around to keep him constantly apprised of people praising him, I doubt he’ll resort to grabbing a map and pulling out a Sharpie every time he doesn’t get his way. Trump is a 5-year-old psychologically; the vice president is at least 11 or 12.

 

But there’s also an ideological reason that I think Vance and Carlson are less inclined to bratty ineffectual stunts than Trump is. They’re actual nationalists whereas the president is a luxury nationalist.

 

As noted here a few days ago, actual nationalists don’t fear that their policies will cause hardship. They welcome it. Popular suffering is the price of restoring the nation to glory. That can mean financial suffering—as would be caused by, say, ending the dollar’s reign as the world’s reserve currency—or it can mean more visceral kinds. Either way, committed nationalists aren’t squeamish about sacrifice and immiseration. If they wanted to fight a trade war with Canada, they’d go a lot further in escalating than hollow gestures involving lake names.

 

Trump is squeamish, though. His brand of “luxury nationalism” comes packaged with a con man’s promise that Americans will suffer no enduring hardship from his agenda. He couldn’t be any plainer than he’s been this summer about how frightened he is by what protracted economic suffering caused by his policies might do to his legacy.

 

True to form, his new trade war with Canada is being sold to Americans with assurances that it won’t affect them at all. “I think the market knows that at the end of the day, this is 5 percent of imports from Canada. It’s 0.06 percent of our overall consumption in this economy. So there’s no possible way it can really affect U.S. well-being, right?” the White House’s trade representative, Jamieson Grier, told CNBC recently. That’s “luxury nationalism” in a nutshell. All the benefits of nationalism with none of the costs!

 

That’s the sort of mindset that might foreseeably lead to something as stupid as “Lake America.” Keen to pursue his trade war but terrified by how voters might be affected should it escalate rapidly, Trump needs ways to look tough that won’t cost Americans anything. Erasing the word “Ontario” from the Great Lakes was a no-brainer. Think of it as zero-calorie nationalism—unappetizing, unsatisfying, but chauvinistically nourishing with little downside.

 

Struggle without struggle.

 

After I wrote about luxury nationalism on Monday, I thought of Francis Fukuyama’s famous prediction from The End of History about why liberalism would decline in the West:

 

Experience suggests that if men cannot struggle on behalf of a just cause because that just cause was victorious in an earlier generation, then they will struggle against the just cause. They will struggle for the sake of struggle. They will struggle, in other words, out of a certain boredom: for they cannot imagine living in a world without struggle. And if the greater part of the world in which they live is characterized by peaceful and prosperous liberal democracy, then they will struggle against that peace and prosperity, and against democracy.

 

That explains most of the last decade in politics in a few tidy sentences. What Trump recognized or intuited, though, was that a people as accustomed to luxury as Americans are would be willing to struggle against liberalism only so much. There’s a reason nationalism tends to spring up abroad in times of privation: Convincing men to struggle for the greatness of the nation isn’t a steep ask when they’re already struggling. The dilemma the president faced in 2016 was convincing people to struggle for the greatness of a nation that was already the wealthiest and most powerful on Earth.

 

His solution was simple, even elegant: He wouldn’t ask them to struggle. The greatness of the nation could be secured by simply electing him and letting him follow his bliss on policy. Indiscriminate tariffs, mass deportation of illegal immigrant workers, gratuitous alienation of allies: Those policies would have no trade-offs.

 

You can draw a straight line from the childishness of that fantasy to the childishness that’s reduced America to laughingstock status 10 years later, of which the Lake Ontario fiasco is a notable but ultimately minor example. Only a pathetic and ignorant people would have fallen for it, and only a really pathetic and really ignorant people would have fallen for it twice. Say what you will about Trump, but don’t ever say that he hasn’t delivered what Americans voted for.

The Crisis for Democrats in Michigan

By Jonathan Chait

Friday, August 28, 2026

 

The hard-left Twitch streamer Hasan Piker warned Jewish Americans last week that their excessive identification with Israel would subject them to anti-Semitic attacks. “If Jews in America keep putting this idea out there that they are singularly invested in Israel, eventually someone is going to come around and take action—not against the state of Israel, mind you, but against American Jews,” he said. Piker’s tone was one of rueful concern, not unlike the pose adopted by anti-Semites throughout history. “No person with a sense of the dignity of mankind can condone the persecution of the Jewish race in Germany. But no person of honesty and vision can look on their pro-war policy here today without seeing the dangers involved in such a policy both for us and for them,” the Nazi sympathizer Charles Lindbergh said in 1941.

 

Several leading Democrats, including Senator Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, issued statements denouncing Piker’s ugly warning to the Jews as a barely veiled anti-Semitic threat. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrat running for Michigan’s other Senate seat, trod more carefully. He issued a statement “in response to Hasan Piker’s comments” affirming that “all Americans deserve the right to advocate for what they believe without fear of violence” and denouncing anti-Semitism, but the statement itself did not say whether Piker’s comment qualified as anti-Semitism. El-Sayed instead dismissed Piker as a distraction, saying at a recent rally, “The effort to make this race about a streamer in L.A. is actually kind of laughable.”

 

Most Democrats followed El-Sayed’s line that Piker was irrelevant. “This election is about what’s going to happen when we elect Abdul to the United States Senate. I am done, so don’t any reporter ask me again about Hasan Piker. It’s not what November is about,” Representative Debbie Dingell said at a rally for El-Sayed.

 

Democrats have good reason to say this. El-Sayed is running a close race to hold a seat that Democrats probably need to retain to win control of the Senate in the midterm elections.

 

But the truth is that Piker, and the uncomfortable questions raised by his alliance with El-Sayed, is one of the important questions at stake in the election. If Piker were just an internet pundit, his rant—the latest entry in a long list of outrageous comments he has made—would be of little consequence to the Democratic Party. Piker has said that “America deserved 9/11,” praised Mao Zedong as “one of the great leaders of this world,” and mourned the collapse of the Soviet Union as “one of the greatest catastrophes of the 20th century.” His ideology is profoundly authoritarian. But several left-wing Democrats, especially El-Sayed, have campaigned with Piker and elevated him into one of their most prominent surrogates. So El-Sayed’s alliance with Piker has become a political and moral crisis.

 

In Michigan, Democrats are trying to avoid handing Republicans their first Senate win in the state in more than three decades. But if El-Sayed wins, he would throw open the doors of the party to a strain of militant politics that many Jews justifiably consider dangerous. The Democratic Party is now divided between those who are trying to force El-Sayed to stop encouraging left-wing anti-Semites and those who give him their unconditional support.

 

***

 

The Michigan Senate election has presented liberals with a grim choice. The Republican candidate, Mike Rogers, has pledged support for a corrupt, racist, authoritarian-minded administration. Rogers hasn’t made even the tiniest concession to Donald Trump critics. But supporting El-Sayed means accepting a strain of anti-Semitic politics that to date has had no place within the Democratic Party.

 

What’s more, El-Sayed has already said that he intends to use his victory as a platform to reshape the party. Him winning could invite a future in which the United States has not just one party that is open to bigots but two.

 

Although El-Sayed has never said anything nearly as inflammatory as the sorts of comments Piker makes routinely, his mixture of anti-Zionism and populism treats pro-Israel activism as a nefarious and all-pervasive force. He has denied that any Democrat who believes in human rights could have any motive other than money for holding a position on Israel different from the one he prefers. El-Sayed tends to depict nearly all opposition to his candidacy as financially driven, but when applied to Jewish political activity,  this charge becomes even more conspiratorial.

 

Ann Arbor, where El-Sayed lives, is home to a branch of the Free Palestine movement that has engaged in violent intimidation of Jewish Democrats. Activists at the University of Michigan not only seized the central campus grounds for their own but also vandalized the business of Jordan Acker, a Democratic regent, and made middle-of-the-night attacks on his home, one of which involved shattering his window with a jar of urine.

 

El-Sayed has campaigned on the Michigan campus with Amir Makled, a lawyer who defended the protesters and who has shared anti-Semitic and pro-Hezbollah social-media posts. When the Justice Department charged eight of the protesters—one of whom had worked on El-Sayed’s campaign—in a plot to commit still more acts of intimidation, El-Sayed treated the indictment as biased, telling reporters, “It’s a lot more about what you’re advocating for that gets you indicted or not indicted, rather than what you did.”

 

Dana Nessel, the state’s attorney general, has faced anti-Semitic harassment and has said that she plans to skip the state party’s August convention rather than endure more abuse. At the party’s April nominating caucus, Mallory McMorrow, a then-candidate for Senate, reported that her Jewish husband was subjected to an anti-Semitic slur. On the weekend before the primary, Walter Masterson, a left-wing streamer who has appeared with El-Sayed, disrupted an event for Haley Stevens, El-Sayed’s pro-Israel opponent in the Democratic primary, forcing the brewery hosting it to cancel the event. El-Sayed did not condemn the bully-boy tactics used on his behalf.

 

Before he warned American Jews that they were bringing anti-Semitism on themselves by identifying with Israel, Piker displayed on his Twitch stream a quote attributed to Jeremy Moss, the Democratic nominee for Congress in a suburban Detroit district: “The entire purpose of my campaign is to make sure America continues to support Israel. I don’t think it’s wrong for Jews in America to want to put Israel first. America is not our homeland and we have been victims of antisemitism here.” Moss insists that the quote is a pure fabrication, and no one has yet produced any evidence of its authenticity.

 

Numerous Democrats denounced Piker’s comments. Instead of apologizing, though, Piker replied on X, “Aipac boss call was made,” implying that only the influence of the pro-Israel lobby could have caused Democrats to object to his rhetoric.

 

El-Sayed has refused pleas from his fellow Democrats to break off his alliance with Piker, who joined him at a pool party on the last day of campaigning before the primary. El-Sayed first brushed off the requests by likening Piker to Joe Rogan, a controversial podcaster whose show some Democrats have appeared on (but not a figure they have brought out on the campaign trail). More recently, he argued that the demands that he distance himself from Piker come from “cancel culture that all of us agreed was a bad idea back in 2020, but we seem to want to bring it back.”

 

This is a dodge. El-Sayed’s fellow Democrats are not trying to silence or punish Piker. They are asking El-Sayed, who chose to bring Piker out to campaign for and endorse him, to make clear where he stands. “Abdul El-Sayed had a prime opportunity to cut ties with Piker and directly disavow his words, but he did not,” Democratic Representative Hillary Scholten of Michigan told Politico. “There is a lot of work left to do to unite the party.”

 

Notably, El-Sayed is using an evasive construction similar to the one that J. D. Vance has employed to justify his friendship with Tucker Carlson. “We have far more important work to do than canceling each other,” the vice president told a conservative gathering last year. The reason Vance uses this deflection is obvious. He wishes to benefit from Carlson’s support without being held responsible for his ally’s most inflammatory claims. This has set off a bitter struggle within the right. Some Republicans are trying to throw Carlson out of the coalition; Vance wants to keep him in.

 

Democrats have little trouble understanding that the right-wing infighting over Carlson is about whether the Republican tent, which already includes racists, nativists, and vicious Islamophobes, is also big enough to include anti-Semites. They have correspondingly little trouble making harsh judgments about the moral compromises Republicans are contemplating in the process.

 

What many Democrats don’t wish to admit is that they are entertaining a similar choice themselves. El-Sayed and Piker have professed their abhorrence of anti-Semitism. But so has Vance—and, so, for that matter, has Carlson. If your opposition to anti-Semitism applies only to your ideological adversaries, and you excuse or ignore it from your allies, it is an empty bromide.

 

When Democrats dismiss the controversy over Piker and the movement he stands for, they are treating the growing influence of left-wing anti-Semitism as unworthy of concern—or, worse still, a fait accompli. The Democrats imploring El-Sayed to renounce Piker want more than a generalized promise to safeguard Jewish safety, or a statement that “nobody” speaks for the candidate. They are seeking some assurance from El-Sayed that he will speak out in opposition to attacks against Jews by his own supporters.

 

El-Sayed has responded as if the only reason Democrats might hesitate to endorse him is that they hold a personal grudge against him. “There are a few people who are still nursing wounds or grievances from the primary,” he told Semafor. “I get it. Losing is hard.” It is true that losing elections is hard. Losing your moral principles, on the other hand, can be surprisingly easy.

 

 

El-Sayed Stumbles in His General Election Pivot

By Judson Berger

Friday, August 28, 2026

 

Heading into Michigan’s Senate primary election, soon-to-be GOP nominee Mike Rogers suggested to National Review’s Kamden Mulder that he wasn’t too concerned which Democrat he’d be facing. He argued that Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed are both radical in their own way.

 

Presumably, the Republican was hedging in case Stevens won. She didn’t. And Rogers can’t be displeased that he’s facing the other guy. As he told NR at the time, “[El-Sayed] just adds a whole other level of crazy to the whole mix.”

 

Crazy, of course, can win — the RealClearPolitics polling average shows El-Sayed with a slight edge over Rogers. But El-Sayed, who only narrowly won his primary, is facing early difficulties presenting a friendlier, more palatable version of himself for the median Michigander.

 

Before broaching the subject of Israel, let’s begin with the immeasurable glibness of his recent appearance with Fox News’ Jesse Watters. The Democratic nominee attempted to shut down questioning about whether he supports child gender surgeries by inquiring whether the host is circumcised.

 

“Abdul, Michigan’s not going for that,” Watters replied, after El-Sayed emphasized the above comparison.

 

You can say, as the Democratic candidate did, that Fox was ignoring “the issues that people actually care about in Michigan.” But, as Noah Rothman writes, El-Sayed himself ignores the harm associated with youth gender transitions:

 

The minimally curious should by now have grappled with the medical literature that finds young people suffering from gender dysphoria do not, on balance, experience positive mental health outcomes as a result of surgical or pharmaceutical interventions. Indeed, their conditions often worsen. El-Sayed and others should be expected to have surveyed the landscape in Europe, where the public health apparatus expresses increasing uncertainty about the value of those interventions.

 

They should recognize, at the very least, the political peril associated with their incuriosity, especially if they’re running for office. . . . If El-Sayed had acquainted himself with even the basic contours of the issue, he probably wouldn’t have struck the condescending posture he adopted on Monday night. Instead, he smirked his way through an exhibition of profound ignorance.

 

Meantime, the candidate’s association with Hasan Piker is causing growing problems for the campaign. As NR’s editorial recounts, El-Sayed tried to create the appearance of distance between himself and the far-left internet personality after the latter claimed that “if Jews in America keep putting this idea out there that they are singularly invested in Israel, eventually someone’s going to come around and take action — not against the State of Israel, mind you, but against American Jews”:

 

While Piker’s comments could be charitably interpreted as his sympathetically noting the way things are, rather than arguing that this is how they ought to be, there is very little reason to give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

Piker has claimed that “America deserved 9/11” and regularly defended terrorist groups. He said Hamas is “a thousand times better” than Israel, that he did not have “a single issue with Hezbollah,” and that what the Houthis were doing was “not only moral, but it’s just.”

 

As the editorial points out, El-Sayed avoided directly criticizing Piker even as he tried to quiet the controversy; after all, they’ve done several campaign events together. “That Piker would again say something controversial about Jews during the campaign was not an unforeseeable event.”

 

Hasan Piker is quickly becoming El-Sayed’s Jeremiah Wright, if Barack Obama had made his pastor a prominent campaign surrogate and GOTV booster rather than cast him as an avuncular kook.

 

Understandably, Rogers is making a play for Democratic voters, including Jewish voters, in the run-up to the general election. Jewish Insider reported that Jewish leaders in the state have circulated an open letter urging Democrats and independents to support Rogers.

 

Try as he may, El-Sayed will struggle to court the center — and credibly distance himself from Piker — now that a primary season that rewards rabidity is over. As Jim Geraghty previously explained, pointing to the candidate’s scheduled appearance at an Islamic Society of North America convention alongside some radical figures, “either A) El-Sayed doesn’t want to moderate or B) he just can’t moderate; this is who he is, through and through.”

I Don’t Like Flock Cameras, but I Don’t Think They’re Unconstitutional

By Charles C. W. Cooke

Friday, August 28, 2026

 

On today’s episode of The Editors, we discussed Flock cameras. I said that they made me uncomfortable — not because they “don’t work,” but because they work all too well. In other words: While I concede that they will likely reduce crime, I do not consider that to be the end of the matter. Lots of things would reduce crime if implemented. That doesn’t mean that those things are necessarily a good idea in a free republic.

 

One of my co-panelists then suggested that Flock cameras present a Fourth Amendment problem because, in order to benefit from their data, law enforcement is required to use a database, which constitutes a “search.” Despite my general skepticism toward them as a matter of public policy, I disagreed with this position. We began to argue about it, but unfortunately, we ran out of time. So I thought I’d complete my thought here.

 

Simply put: I cannot see a Fourth Amendment problem with Flock cameras, because the data that they collect — and thus the data that is subsequently accessed by the police — is, and always was, presumptively public. The Fourth Amendment holds that:

 

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

 

Public roads do not fall under this description. Imagine, if you will, that instead of a series of cameras, a series of police officers were stationed at various points along a public route and tasked with writing down the license plates of all the cars that went by. Obviously, none of them would need a warrant to do this. Then imagine that, having collected this information, they went back to the station and collated it into a book. Would another officer looking at that book constitute a “search”? I cannot see how it would. Police officers are allowed to look at whatever they want in places, such as public roads, where the citizenry lacks a reasonable expectation of privacy. And having looked at whatever they want, those same officers are allowed to share with one another what they have found.

 

If the Flock cameras were being used outside of the public roads, that would be a different story. If, for example, those cameras were being secreted within private homes, or attached surreptitiously to private cars, or put in every hotel room in Nebraska, that would present a problem. So, too, if the cameras boasted X-ray vision or could detect heat signatures, and they were being used to peer into private property. But they aren’t.

 

Nor can the mere act of consulting a database be the key variable. What matters, surely, is what’s in the database? The police are not allowed to read my emails without a warrant, because my emails are part of my “papers” and “effects.” But the police can legitimately read emails that I send them, or listen to speeches I make in public fora, or even track my movements while I am outside. If, for example, my local police department were to compile a database that contained everything I have ever said in public, that wouldn’t magically become a Fourth Amendment problem simply because that database was searchable. The violation attaches to the nature of the contents, not to the act of compiling information per se.

 

If the Fourth Amendment did outlaw Flock cameras, it would not bother me. I find them creepy, and I am not pleased that, because the internet has annihilated distance, they enable police departments thousands of miles from my own to follow me around as I drive. Unfortunately, though, I really cannot see how the Fourth Amendment applies here, and for me, as a constitutional originalist, that is the end of that story. Given its recent jurisprudence, I expect that the courts will agree with my suspicions, and that being so, those of us who do not like the growing surveillance state are going to have to give up on the hope of being saved by judges and do the work via the usual political channels.

Life Inside Iran Is Becoming Intolerable

By Noah Rothman

Friday, August 28, 2026

 

There was a perceptible hint in dispatches from CNN and the Wall Street Journal over the last two weeks that their journalists couldn’t believe their own reporting. Could it be that the president had accidentally backed into a strategy to throttle Iran into submission that’s actually working?

 

Perhaps. Axios’s reporting on Friday lends credence to that tentative conclusion. According to U.S. officials, Iran has “lost much of its control over” the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces can still fire on the vessels that attempt to transit the strait via the U.S.-guarded Omani channel, but its targeting capabilities are significantly degraded. Just 2 percent of the ships that traversed the strait were attacked, U.S. officials contend.

 

In addition, obstacles placed in the strait by Iran have largely been cleared. “More than 200 mine-like objects have been swept from the main lane of the strait,” the Axios report said. “U.S. officials say only 11 of them were actual mines and just a few were properly deployed.” As a consequence, traffic through the strait ballooned in August, with roughly 9–10 million barrels of oil flowing through it.

 

CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper provides some details:

 

The image shows a video clip with a text overlay indicating an update from the U.S. Central Command.

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Private energy trackers cannot confirm the administration’s figures, in part because much of this traffic is deliberately invisible. As the Journal admitted, some private trackers’ estimates run “closer to the administration’s numbers,” and Goldman Sachs analysts revealed Thursday that oil traffic out of the strait is about two-thirds of the way to the pre-war average rate.

 

Maybe the most interesting part of the Axios report is its suggestion that Trump’s blockade may be weakening the rump Iranian regime’s commitment to resistance: “Two regional sources told Axios that in recent days Iran has shown renewed interest in negotiations.” If the regime is feeling the pain, that’s likely a reflection of the hardships endured by the Iranian people.

 

For months, the American press has covered the conflict in the strait as though America were at war with itself. Only recently have American media outlets tuned in to the increasingly dire conditions on the ground inside Iran. What they’re seeing explains why the regime needs to upend the status quo.

 

A separate Journal dispatch on Friday revealed that protests of the sort that rocked the regime to its core in December of last year are popping up again, albeit on a smaller scale. Iranians are hoarding gasoline as the regime flirts with withdrawing petrol subsidies. Supermarkets in Tehran ran out of staples like rice and cooking oil this week. “The risk of shortage tied to U.S. sanctions threats has triggered panic,” one Iranian translator told reporters. Where goods are available, they’re impossibly expensive. The Iranian rial is now trading at a historic low against the dollar, and its value is falling fast. “Meat is often bought on credit, repaid in installments with interest,” the Journal reported.

 

NPR’s “view from Tehran” is just as dire. Its reporters found that medical services inside Iran, even in relatively posh Tehran, are breaking down. NPR’s piece strongly implies that the regime or its affiliates have begun appropriating the savings from individual bank depositors. One woman, “who works as a baker and caterer, says when she went to the bank over the weekend, she learned that her account was blocked with nearly $1,000 missing,” the dispatch recounted. “Bank associates told her the bank had been hacked, though didn’t say by whom.”

 

Where groceries can be found, they are prohibitively expensive. And any Iranian engaged in commerce has seen their overhead costs increase by as much as four times the pre-war baseline. As one Iranian trader told NPR, “the blockade is worse than the war.”

 

The Iranian people’s anxiety is raising fears inside the country that a new round of protests is imminent. A public statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Intelligence Organization this week warned that rising social discontent could give way to unrest.

 

“The statement said the IRGC was prioritizing efforts to confront actions it considered disruptive to public order, national solidarity, and cohesion,” Radio Free Europe reported:

 

The IRGC said its perceived adversaries were using tactics including the activation of crisis centers, psychological warfare, turmoil in monetary and financial markets, and anti-security operations. It also accused them of exploiting domestic weaknesses and shortages and encouraging public dissatisfaction to spread into the streets.

 

Regional experts and security analysts all but universally caution against optimism. They say there are no indications that the revolutionary regime’s cosseted leadership is sensitive to the public’s plight and little evidence to suggest that economic pressure can do to the regime what the liberal application of air power could not. Perhaps they’re right. But the conditions on the ground inside Iran are intolerable.

 

Something has to give.

Do Republicans Need More Trump?

By Noah Rothman

Friday, August 28, 2026

 

The GOP’s problem heading into the 2026 midterms has been obvious for months and so visible that you could see it from space: Democrats are enthusiastic to register their dissatisfaction with Trump at the polls. Republicans are, by contrast, relatively tuned out.

 

Donald Trump’s remedy for the GOP’s ennui is to give them what he thinks they want: himself. “Pretend I’m on the ballot,” the president told Fox News’s Trey Gowdy. “I see it all the time,” he added, “that when Trump’s on the ballot, they win.” That’s a line Trump has deployed on the stump as he beseeches his supporters to spare him the wrath of a Democratic majority. He’s even going so far as to say “please.”

 

House Speaker Mike Johnson is on board with the president’s strategy — not that he had a choice. “The president’s gonna look right in the camera and say, ‘I am on the ballot,’” Johnson recently told a room full of supporters. “Because even though his name isn’t, his administration, his legacy, the ‘America First’ agenda is.”

 

The White House’s calculus is simple. Nothing enthuses Republican voters like Trump, so that’s what they’re going to get. But the Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter believes the president’s political apparatus has this all wrong. Republican voters aren’t apathetic toward the GOP, she notes, but a critical number of them have soured on the president’s record:

 

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Perhaps unsurprisingly, self-described Republicans who do not fall in with the MAGA camp are much more likely than MAGA Republicans to disapprove of the president’s conduct in office. And their problems with the president abound.

 

The non-MAGA right is much more allergic to the conduct of foreign affairs than the president has been in this term. They disapprove of the war in Iran and, unlike their MAGA counterparts, do not support additional kinetic action against the Islamic Republic. Much has been made of this contingent’s alleged hostility toward Israel. Yet, the polling that purports to identify surging Israel skepticism on the right also found that non-MAGA voters see Israel as America’s “most important ally” alongside the U.K. Just 16 percent of those voters believe Israel’s influence is designed to “undermine” the United States.

 

These voters do believe Israel has too much influence over America, but they also seem to think everyone has too much influence over America save the voters: Billionaires, foreign governments, special interests, and even the political parties themselves. As a general proposition, the non-MAGA set resents anything that distracts the president from the conduct of domestic affairs. Perhaps that resentment stems from the fact that they really disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy.

 

Demographically, the non-MAGA right skews slightly younger and slightly more female. Whereas MAGA is lopsidedly composed of non-degree holders, non-MAGA is split evenly between college and high school graduates. They are less likely to describe themselves as “very conservative,” and they’re 15 points less likely than MAGA voters to follow the news closely. That could be contributing to the GOP’s enthusiasm deficit.

 

A national Marquette University Law School survey released in early June found that fully 47 percent of non-MAGA Republicans had paid no attention “at all” to the Republican Party’s primaries. And as the election approaches and marginal voters are encountering more partisan messaging, that apathy is dissipating — and with it, the enthusiasm gap:

 

The image is a chart displaying the percentage of Democrats and Republicans who are extremely motivated to vote, showing a shrinking enthusiasm gap as midterm elections approach.

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The non-MAGA right is slowly tuning into the midterms, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to like what they see. The GOP doesn’t have to worry that these voters are going to cast their ballots for anyone other than a Republican. Even if they disapprove of Trump, YouGov’s most recent data found, the overwhelming majority of non-MAGA Republicans plan to vote for the GOP candidate (if they vote at all).

 

The Democratic enthusiasm edge is apparent in the results of the special and off-year elections the party has won in the second Trump era, and it has transformed what should have been a favorable Senate landscape for the GOP into one in which the Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor says Republicans now hold only “the slimmest of advantages.”

 

Republicans need to give those voters a rationale for voting the straight ticket. Maybe negative polarization against the Democrats amid the party’s socialist makeover will do the trick. But it won’t be the cult of Trump that saves the GOP.

 

Not that this White House has any other tricks up its sleeve. Rarely has the parable of Abraham Maslow’s hammer so aptly applied to a political operation. When all you have is a Trump, it seems, everyone looks like a MAGA voter.

Friday, August 28, 2026

World War 2.5

By Nick Catoggio

Thursday, August 27, 2026

 

It’s not often that the director of the CIA swings by Moscow for a tête-à-tête. The last time it happened before this week was November 2021, when William Burns felt obliged to warn the Kremlin in person that we knew what it was planning for Ukraine.

 

The physical presence of America’s top spy was obviously meant to communicate the gravity of the White House’s concern. Hence the suspense surrounding CIA chief John Ratcliffe’s surprise visit to the Russian capital yesterday: What unknown yet undoubtedly alarming development might have led the Trump administration to order its own extraordinary intervention?

 

Could Vladimir Putin be considering an atomic solution to the Ukrainian stalemate?

 

“The escalating spiral of strikes is leading a growing number of Russian officials to the conclusion that Putin could eventually opt to use tactical nuclear weapons as a last resort in Ukraine,” sources close to the Kremlin told Bloomberg. Yet as much as that prospect might delight vatniks and/or Tucker Carlson, it’s probably idle saber rattling (for now). Firing off a small nuke or two at the widely dispersed Ukrainian front line would likely gain Russia less militarily than it would cost in terms of international isolation.

 

Another theory: Maybe, contra Burns, Ratcliffe was dispatched not to threaten the Russians but to feel them out on a devil’s bargain aimed at curing the president’s migraine in the Persian Gulf. For instance, “if you can get Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, we’ll pull out of NATO.”

 

With Trump all things are possible, but the director of the CIA would be an odd choice to deliver that message. A grand bargain with Russia in which Europe ends up stabbed in the back is the sort of deal the president would relish brokering himself, one would think. Or, at least, something he’d farm out to a Putin-friendly toady like Steve Witkoff.

 

By the very nature of his agency’s work (not to mention its cooperation with Ukraine), Ratcliffe is the guy you send when you’re taking an adversarial position toward the Kremlin. A more likely explanation for his visit is that he was there, à la Burns, to try to deter the Russians from some dangerously reckless new action they’re planning in their near-abroad.

 

Like attacking NATO.

 

That was in fact the purpose of the visit, according to the Wall Street Journal. Earlier this month the paper reported that U.S. intelligence now has reason to believe Putin “could try to test NATO’s resolve with a limited assault on an allied country in the next few years,” with options ranging from cyberattacks to a “small-scale land incursion.” The fact that Ratcliffe felt moved to warn Russia now suggests that the timeline for the expected provocation skews more toward sooner than later, though. And if you’ve been following the news overseas, you know why.

 

Numerous weapons factories in Ukraine-supporting European countries have been targeted in mysterious acts of sabotage this year, mirroring Ukraine’s attacks on Russian logistics sites. Germany recently discovered three drones carrying explosives at Leipzig’s airport, a hub used to ship military supplies to Kyiv. And last month Russian military officials visited Kaliningrad, a small Russian exclave located between Poland and Lithuania, allegedly to oversee “readiness planning and procedures for a mobilization of the region’s residents, with details on how to house, feed, and arm them.”

 

Coincidentally, last week NATO staged an unusually large air exercise near Kaliningrad, part of a “flurry of activity” by the alliance in the Baltics lately. Today Elbridge Colby, the U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy, is meeting with the head of NATO and the North Atlantic Council to discuss … something, possibly America’s defense posture in Europe, possibly matters more urgent. And news broke yesterday that Germany is negotiating with Britain to invest in the latter’s nuclear deterrent, part of a plan to extend Europe’s nuclear umbrella eastward toward Moscow.

 

It all seems ominous—except for the fact that the battered Russian military is in no condition to test Europe, right? By one estimate Russia has suffered 1.4 million casualties in Ukraine, including upward of 500,000 deaths. Ratcliffe himself claimed last month that the average Russian soldier lasts just 20-30 minutes on the battlefield before being killed or disabled. Surely a country that’s choking to death from trying to bite off a piece of its much smaller neighbor isn’t about to sink its teeth into NATO. Why is the CIA chief so worried that it might do so, let alone do so soon?

 

The answer to that question is another question: If not now, when?

 

Now or never.

 

Strange as it may sound, in many ways this is an opportune moment for Putin to confront the West. The point of a Russian incursion in the Baltics wouldn’t be to defeat NATO militarily, which is implausible given the two-front war Moscow would be compelled to wage. The point would be to defeat it strategically—that is, to gamble that the alliance would fold rather than fight, provided that the incursion is small enough.

 

A likely target is the Suwalki Gap, a corridor that runs through Poland and Lithuania and connects Kaliningrad with Russia’s ally Belarus. Taking it wouldn’t necessarily require a huge force. In one war game conducted last year, a contingent of 15,000 Russian troops successfully seized a Lithuanian city there. “The U.S. didn’t invoke Article 5 and Germany dithered, ultimately leaving Russia victorious in its territorial snatch and in its goal of undermining NATO,” Newsweek noted of the outcome.

 

But why would Russia try it now? Because: Even more so than usual, an overextended White House is compelled by circumstance to think twice before involving America in any new wars.

 

Set aside the president’s own fecklessness and ideological sympathies, to which we’ll return later. Logistically, the U.S. is in no position at the moment to wage a two-front war of its own. “In a potential conflict with Russia, weapons such as the Precision Strike Missile and Army Tactical Missile Systems … are crucial to repel a land invasion,” the Journal explains. Thanks to Trump’s folly in Iran, we’re a little short on both.

 

Considering how unpopular that folly has become with American voters, any president would be leery of thrusting the country into a second military conflict—especially one that would have us fighting Iran and Russia simultaneously, the closest the United States will have come to a world war since 1945. (So much for Trump the dove.) With the midterm election impending, Putin isn’t crazy for surmising that the White House would sooner betray NATO than foist another conflict on a disgruntled electorate.

 

The timing is opportune for Russia in another way. After four years of combat in Ukraine, it’s used to war and can hit the ground running if it chooses to extend hostilities westward. Europe isn’t, and can’t—for now.

 

That window of opportunity for the Kremlin is slowly closing, though, as Germany’s interest in a nuclear deterrent demonstrates. Europe is rearming, spooked by Putin’s brutality in Kyiv and America’s romance with postliberalism; the day is coming when NATO will be able to repel Russia even without U.S. support. The day is also coming when our romance with postliberalism will end and an Atlanticist will return to the White House, more willing to defend the liberal Western order against Moscow than the current occupant is.

 

Realistically, then, if you’re Vladimir Putin, your dream of breaking NATO might have a shelf life of as little as two years. So why wait? In particular, why wait until after the Ukraine war is over, when relieved Russian citizens will expect a period of quiescence to recover from their nightmare? If the rumors are true that the Kremlin is about to order a huge new military draft to replenish its manpower, why not capitalize on the surge in forces to test Europe now?

 

As Tablet writer Park MacDougald put it, the Russian leadership believes “that the West, which sustains Ukraine, is not psychologically, morally, or politically prepared for war. Russia is, and that gives Russia an asymmetric advantage.” The West will be prepared again someday. But not today.

 

Attacking Europe would do something else for the Kremlin, supplying a rationale for an ongoing national trauma that’s conspicuously lacked one for years.

 

Although they’d never admit it, the average Russian must be wondering what the point is of a conflict that’s dragged on longer than it took the Red Army to smash the Nazi empire and seems to be getting worse for their country over time. How can a few miles of the Donbas be worth four and a half years of wanton bloodletting and the incremental depopulation of Russian males?

 

Seizing European territory would give Putin an answer. We’re not fighting Ukraine, we’re fighting the entire West. And we’re winning. We took the Suwalki Gap. We broke NATO. We’ve achieved something that even Stalin and the Soviet Union never dared attempt.

 

The idea of extending the fight westward might appeal to Russians emotionally too, as they must realize that the explosions that now routinely rock their country wouldn’t be possible without material support from Ukraine’s European allies. “Moscow increasingly views the Ukrainian strikes as attacks by NATO states because alliance members supply Kyiv with weapons and intelligence,” sources told Bloomberg. Turnabout is fair play in the Kremlin’s eyes: If the Ukrainians are going to try to cripple the Russian military by targeting its supply lines, Russia will respond in kind by targeting the nations supplying Ukraine.

 

That’s the message that the explosive drones found at Leipzig’s airport were undoubtedly meant to convey. A modest invasion of the Baltics would convey it in a much grander way.

 

Escalating to de-escalate.

 

There’s one more reason Putin might want to test NATO sooner, not later. Even if he orders another military draft, the war is likely to get harder for him if it drags on.

 

Russian citizens have begun pulling their money from banks for fear that the cash-hungry government will start seizing their savings to fund the conflict. Hopes that a friendly American president might squeeze Ukraine to surrender to the Kremlin have faded amid Trump’s preoccupation with Iran and his admiration for the Ukrainian drone offensive. And Ukraine’s military capabilities continue to grow: Very soon, with help from its European friends, the country will begin striking deep inside Russia with homemade ballistic missiles.

 

It’s all (or mostly) downhill from here. The poor prognosis for the Russian economy led one European consultant to tell CNBC, “If I were Putin, God forbid, I would probably decide that it is in my interest to escalate now and try to finish the war on my terms, than wait until the money ends sometime in the future.”

 

It seems counterintuitive that a nation that desperately needs a war to end might choose to expand it, but there’s logic to it. It’s known in military doctrine as “escalate to de-escalate,” which we’ve discussed here before.

 

“Escalate to de-escalate” is a close cousin of “the madman theory” made famous by Richard Nixon. The idea in both cases is to scare the hell out of your enemy by making them believe you might do something so wildly reckless (usually involving nuclear weapons) that they see little choice but to appease you. A “small-scale land incursion” by Russia into the Baltics would be a perfect example. Instantly it would force the West to the brink of its most dangerous military conflict since World War II, risking all-out war with Moscow …

 

… unless, of course, certain concessions were made that convinced the Russian army to withdraw peacefully from NATO territory and end its offensive against Ukraine.

 

Cut off all military support to Kyiv and convince Volodymyr Zelensky to sign a peace deal coughing up the Donbas and we’ll give back the Suwalki Gap. How’s that for a de-escalatory bargain?

 

Europeans wouldn’t want to accept that offer, fearing that doing so would encourage Russia to stage additional not-so-small-scale land incursions in the future (see, e.g., Ukraine 2014 and Ukraine 2022), but they might not have a choice if the president of the United States wanted to accept it. Do we think he’d accept it?

 

I’m not sure.

 

There are obvious reasons he might, starting with the fecklessness and ideological sympathies I mentioned earlier. Trump has always craved détente with authoritarian Russia; no president since the Cold War has been more reluctant to confront Moscow militarily than he is. He’s also a ripe target to be terrorized by an “escalate to de-escalate” ploy, as he’s been bleating about the Ukraine war as a prelude to World War III since his last presidential campaign—and chastised Zelensky about it to his face during the latter’s infamous Oval Office visit in 2025.

 

The president is also chronically aggrieved at Europe, more so than ever lately after America’s NATO allies declined to join his silly war in Iran. It’s easy to imagine him reacting to news of a Russian invasion of Poland with a shrug: “They didn’t help us with the Strait of Hormuz, why would we help them with Putin?” I wouldn’t even put it past Trump to dial up the Kremlin and offer to recognize their authority over the territory they’ve seized if they can persuade Iran to reopen the strait. He’s a fan of quid pro quos, you may have heard.

 

If nothing else, he might decline to join a military effort to oust Russian troops for simple fear of what war in Europe would do to the U.S. economy. Which wouldn’t be the first time that he sold out to a rogue regime to spare himself a presidential legacy of economic hardship.

 

Still, to believe that Trump would meekly surrender to a Russian incursion into Europe means believing he’d compound his current show of weakness in Iran with a second, more consequential show of weakness toward Putin. That seems unlikely. You can’t obsess about “strength” as much as the president does and run around losing—or ducking—fights repeatedly. If you do, some of the kids on the schoolyard whom you’re hoping to bully in the future might begin to draw certain lessons about you.

 

There are also plenty of Russia hawks in Congress and more than a few in and around the White House, of whom Ratcliffe appears to be one, who’ll egg him on to show some spine. If Trump were planning to sit idly by while the Kremlin stages a sneak attack on Europe, it’s strange that Ratcliffe would have been deputized to formally warn them against doing so, no?

 

My guess is that the president would approach a Russian incursion into NATO territory the way he’s approached U.S. backing for Ukraine, splitting the baby by reducing America’s support without ending it altogether. Kyiv doesn’t get free weapons from us anymore, but it does still get intelligence. NATO wouldn’t get any American troops to help push the Russians out—RIP, Article 5—but Trump probably would pledge intelligence, some weapons, and perhaps a few fun bonuses like access for Ukraine to Starlink inside Russia to help with long-range targeting.

 

But before the fighting got going, he and his team would be desperately trying to broker a ceasefire in which Russia withdraws in exchange for, say, promises of an urgent international diplomatic effort to settle the war in Ukraine plus sanctions relief to ease the pressure on the Russian economy.

 

I suspect Putin would take that deal, having scored a moral victory by dividing America from NATO. Trump would take it too, as it would revive his dream of midwifing a compromise to end the war and give him a chance at a diplomatic win after the Iran debacle. And Europeans? They’d have to decide whether rejecting his proposal, risking a total break with America and having to fight Russia alone, is preferable to grudgingly acquiescing. As ever, the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.