By Michaell Baumgartner
Wednesday, August 05, 2026
Nearly five years after President Biden’s disastrous
withdrawal from Afghanistan, American-funded military equipment left behind is
making terrorists more lethal across the border in Pakistan.
I recently traveled to Islamabad to meet with military
boss Field Marshal Asim Munir to discuss the conflicts raging across the
region, including more than 1,000 terrorist attacks in Pakistan last year —
it’s now more affected by terrorism than any other country in the world is.
Joining me on the trip was Representative Ryan Zinke. Neither of us approached
the trip with illusions about the challenges of the region. Zinke is a former
Navy SEAL Commander. I previously worked as an embedded adviser on an Afghan-government
counternarcotics team in Helmand Province and occasionally lectured in the
Afghanistan-Pakistan program at the U.S. National Defense University.
Field Marshal Munir predicted that Pakistan’s fighting
with both terrorists and the Taliban government in Kabul is likely to grow.
Last February, a suicide bomber attacked a mosque in Islamabad, killing 31 and
wounding more than 200. A few weeks later, Pakistan responded by bombing Kabul
in an attack that killed nearly 300. The Field Marshal also made clear his
frustration that Pakistani counterterrorism forces are confronting the
Pakistani Taliban (TTP) — fighters equipped with American-origin night-vision
devices and sophisticated sniper weapons left over from the chaotic Biden
pull-out.
Congressman Zinke and I both sit on the House Foreign
Affairs Committee Foreign Military Sales (FMS) Task Force. The FMS process is
mired in red tape that can make partner nations wait years to acquire U.S.
weapons systems they’ve already paid for. The consequences are visible in
Pakistan: China provided 81 percent of Pakistan’s major arms imports
between 2020 and 2024. When America cannot deliver, we drive potential
partners toward Russia and China, while weakening our industrial base. During
our meetings in Islamabad in July, Munir noted a bitter asymmetry — that he has
been unable to purchase U.S. attack helicopters to defend against terrorist
forces using U.S. weapons to attack his troops and police.
This is not simply an allegation from Islamabad. United Nations monitors have reported that the TTP
possesses NATO-caliber weapons obtained in Afghanistan and that its access to
night-vision equipment has increased the lethality of attacks on Pakistani
border posts.
The equipment is part of the dangerous military
inheritance of the Afghan collapse. According to the Department of Defense
inspector general, $7.12 billion in American-funded military equipment
remained in the former Afghan government’s inventory when it fell in 2021. This
was principally materiel previously transferred to Afghan security forces;
departing American troops removed or destroyed nearly all the major systems
they used directly.
More than 316,000 weapons, including specialized sniper rifles,
remained in Afghanistan, along with approximately 42,000 pieces of specialized equipment, including
night-vision, surveillance, biometric, and positioning devices. The Afghan air force had roughly 40
American-funded UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters, and the Taliban captured and
returned several to service. Those aircraft are not being used in the terrorist
attacks now confronting Pakistan, but their presence illustrates the
extraordinary scale of the military arsenal that the Taliban now control. The
condition and precise disposition of this arsenal remain uncertain, but there
is now mounting evidence that some of the equipment captured after the collapse
has migrated into terrorist hands.
During America’s war, the Afghan Taliban exploited
sanctuaries in Pakistan to attack Afghanistan. Today, the conflict has partly
reversed direction: The TTP operates from sanctuaries in Afghanistan and mounts
increasingly lethal attacks inside Pakistan.
The TTP and Afghan Taliban are distinct but closely
connected organizations. Their relationship operates through the Pashtun belt
straddling a permeable border, where tribal, familial, and commercial ties long
predate the modern frontier.
President Trump’s strong rapport with Munir — they met in
person twice last year and speak frequently — creates an opening to broaden
cooperation. The United States should negotiate a tailored counterterrorism and
security-assistance framework, with Pakistan focused on mutually defined
threats, particularly the TTP and ISIS-K. Washington should streamline access
to carefully selected night-fighting equipment, intelligence and surveillance
support, counter-drone systems, and border-monitoring capabilities. Such
cooperation must be mission-specific, rigorously vetted, and subject to strong
end-use monitoring. It should be conditioned on measurable Pakistani
counterterrorism cooperation and structured to prevent diversion or misuse. It
should also be limited to capabilities that do not materially alter the
conventional military balance with India.
Congress must also confront the underlying equipment
problem. The No Equipment Left Behind Act of 2026, for example, would
require the Pentagon to prepare for the possibility that a partner government
receiving American equipment could collapse, so a debacle like Biden’s Taliban
weapons bonanza doesn’t happen again.
A more capable TTP threatens more than Pakistan. It
strengthens a regional terrorist network in which the TTP, al-Qaeda, ISIS-K,
and other groups maintain overlapping networks, compete for recruits, and
exploit many of the same ungoverned spaces. Instability along the
Afghan-Pakistani border also carries obvious dangers in a nuclear-armed
country. Counterterrorism should be the beginning of renewed engagement with
Pakistan, not its outer limit.
Pakistan’s 250 million people make it the fifth-most
populous country in the world. Its relatively young population — about 60 percent of Pakistanis are younger than 30 — means that
it will probably grow in economic importance. It’s also home to immense mineral
wealth; a high-end estimate of $8 trillion of copper, gold, and
critical technology minerals lie in Pakistan’s mountains. In September of last
year, the U.S. and Pakistan announced a $500 million mining agreement, the first of its kind
between the two nations, although actual production is still likely years away.
By comparison, China is already actively mining in Pakistan but doing little
value-add processing in the country as it prefers to ship bulk material
straight back home. The challenge is that much of the mineral wealth downstream
is located in the same border regions undergoing regular terrorist attacks by
Baloch militants. So far, there is no evidence that left-behind American-origin
weapons have been used in attacks on mineral projects, but this region borders
Afghanistan, and if those weapons spread more widely, they could make an
already dangerous operating environment even harder to secure.
The question is whether Pakistan can establish enough
security and stability for American companies to invest, mine, and process
minerals there. Surging demand for copper in an increasingly electrified world
and critical minerals needed for the AI supercomputing race make Pakistan
enticing. Biden’s $7 billion blunder leaving weapons to the Taliban certainly
complicates any decision to invest in the region.
The central lesson is not just about cleaning up the past
administration’s mess. It is that security is a necessary prerequisite of
economic engagement. Terrorists may kill people and damage buildings, but their
real target is the stability of society and government. America’s Pakistan
policy should therefore begin with counterterrorism, but extend to the
investments, trade, technology, and mineral partnerships that give both
countries a stake in a growing, safe, and prosperous Pakistan.
No comments:
Post a Comment