Putin’s Strange Leniency (So Far)

By Andrew Stuttaford

Sunday, July 09, 2023

 

Prigozhin’s march on Moscow was halted by a deal under which those of his Wagner Group troops who had not joined the rebellion could join (if they chose) Russia’s regular army. Those who had participated would not face any charges, and nor would Prigozhin himself, who would go to live in Belarus, which is effectively a Russian vassal state. This had the advantage in getting him out of Russia but keeping him somewhere (with plenty of windows) where he could be watched closely.

 

That was the story, but that doesn’t appear to be how it’s working out, so far.

 

The Financial Times reports that Prigozhin’s private jet (with, presumably, Prigozhin in it) has being flying between Moscow, Belarus, and St. Petersburg (Prigozhin’s home base), which is not exactly what might have been expected. There had also been reports that some Wagner soldiers, too, would move to Belarus. The Belarusians have prepared a facility that could host 5,000 of them, but no Wagner forces appear to have showed up there. For its part, Poland, taking no chances, is moving 1,000 soldiers near to its border with Belarus.

 

Meanwhile, the Kremlin appears to have set out to humiliate Prigozhin, revealing some of what was found after a raid on his home, including wigs, gold bars, ridiculous-looking photographs of Prigozhin in disguise, a stuffed alligator, and a framed photograph of some severed heads in a desert, a souvenir, probably, of Wagner’s exploits in either Syria or Africa. The FT reports comments by one analyst that the photos were designed to destroy Prigozhin politically while the Kremlin decided what to do with Prigozhin the businessman (the Wagner Group is clearly still of some value to Russia).

 

The FT reported that “the warlord has been given space to deal with his business empire in Russia and tie up loose ends” according to “analysts and members of the country’s elite.”

 

What will happen next is anyone’s guess, but this does not look like a show of strength on Putin’s part, which may be . . . unwise.