Grading the Presidential Candidates at the Iowa Republican Party’s Lincoln Dinner

By Rich Lowry

Sunday, July 30, 2023

 

I listened to almost all of the Lincoln Dinner speeches from Friday.

 

One thing that struck me was the amount of policy consensus there was. You could have put almost all the policy issues in a blender (debt, low taxes, China, Bidenomics, the border, U.S. weakness abroad, abortion, men competing in women’s sports, weaponized law enforcement), mixed them up, then evenly distributed them among all the candidates, and the policy mix in the speeches would have largely stayed the same.

 

Also, I liked pretty much all the speeches, so I’m going to grade like a college professor who’s too eager to get good reviews from his students.

 

Trump: A- (or D, depending on your standard)

 

A “D” would be appropriate if you minded the rank pandering, the ridiculous account of the trade war with China and how it supposedly benefited U.S. farmers, election denialism, and the reading of poll results. That, though, would make you different from most Republican voters.

 

Trump is not at his strongest working from a script in a short format. Still, he was Trump, so naturally he got a huge reaction.

 

Regarding the pandering: He’s always been blatant in his appeal to whomever he’s trying to win over, and it usually works. He has also always read from polls, but in this case they are relevant, since part of the argument against him is that he’d lose to Biden in a general. He was at his strongest drawing the contrast in results between how Biden campaigned and how he has governed.

 

As always, he filled the stage. He felt a little like the incumbent president who’d done everyone the favor of showing up at a small-time event.

 

DeSantis: B+

 

He was energetic and spoke with conviction. He also showed signs of widening out his message. He talked more about economics and put that up front in his remarks. That’s all to the good. His core argument that Republicans need to get it done in 2024 and he’s the one to do it is cogent and remains plausible.

 

I think he’d really benefit, though, from having a truly accomplished speechwriter write a big set speech for him at some point, and then, as he campaigns, he can draw on it for riffs and lines that suit him and integrate them into remarks in his own voice. As it is, his attempts at humor at the beginning of his speeches are always flat and his attempted rhetorical flights at the end are always a bunch of jammed-together clichés. It’d be easy to bring the oratory to a higher level — and put his message in an even better light — without being inauthentic. Why not do it?

 

Tim Scott: B+

 

The senator understands the power of story-telling, and has a lot of good ones to tell. He’s still in the introducing-himself-to-people stage and has done a good job of it, this speech included. But what makes his message distinctive, besides the cheerfulness? Plus, he really needs to flesh out his policy positions to avoid the sense that his campaign is all about his personal story.

 

Getting people to like him is a great foundation for growth, and he’s already been ticking upwards. He can’t rely on that alone to get him to the next level, though.

 

Vivek Ramaswamy: A-

 

He’s a very adept speaker, fluid and pointed. He talks about first principles compellingly. The way he used the American Revolution to make the case for a MAGA message, though, was a little hard to take, as well as his retreated references to the end of his second term in January 2033. The brief reference to what really happened on January 6 was noxious. And his juxtaposition of reform — what the sell-outs favor — and revolution — what he’ll supposedly bring — was over the top. Still, he helped himself and I’d still be surprised if he doesn’t have a moment and become a bigger problem for DeSantis, Scott, or someone else.

 

Some other observations:

 

Mike Pence — He delivered a classic social-conservative message, and, as usual, was earnest and sincere. He deserves better than he’s getting so far from Republican voters.

Doug Burgum —He made a real nice pitch for himself. He represents the opposite end of the spectrum from DeSantis, at least to this point, though — completely neglecting the culture.

Nikki Haley — Everything she said was great, but she has the same problem as Tim Scott — what’s distinct?