By Noah Rothman
Thursday, June 12, 2025
Within the first 100 days of his presidency, Barack Obama
set out on a whirlwind public relations campaign in which he promoted the
notion that the only thing wrong with America was all the presidents who
preceded him.
“America has acted unilaterally, without regard for the
interests of others,” he confessed in an address to the United Nations General
Assembly. American hubris “fed an almost reflexive anti-Americanism” among our
nation’s partners abroad. But who could blame them?
The United States, he told an audience in France, “has
shown arrogance and been dismissive, even derisive.” In Cairo, he criticized
his hidebound countrymen who “continue to view Islam as inevitably hostile not
only to America and Western countries, but also to human rights.” The speech
represented an extension of remarks he provided Al Arabiya within a week of his
inauguration. “We sometimes make mistakes,” the president admitted. “We have
not been perfect.”
Obama’s defenders insisted these were merely overdue
gestures of “respect” toward our allies and partners abroad, but his critics
branded it an “apology tour.” At the time, Republicans seemed genuinely
revulsed by Obama’s supplicative posture, but it was not to last. Of all the
foreign policy projects Obama undertook in his eight years in the White House,
his embarrassment at the country he led may be his most lasting achievement —
if only because Republicans have surrendered to the idea that Obama was right
all along.
***
The first foreign trip of Donald Trump’s second term took
the president on a swing through the Middle East. In a major address before the
Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, the president outlined
something like a doctrinal approach to foreign affairs. Trump’s vision
prioritized tangible objectives, such as pursuing investment opportunities
abroad, over promoting American ideals. In it, the president’s speechwriters
took a variety of Obama-like swipes at Trump’s political opponents in his own party,
many of whom happen to be the same people Obama set out to repudiate.
In the speech, Trump hailed what he saw as a grand
commercial transformation of the Middle East — progress most readily apparent
in the skyscrapers he referred to and with which he seemed genuinely impressed.
There’s no obvious reason why that observation was used as an opportunity to
belittle the president’s fellow Americans, but that is where he went: “It’s
crucial for the wider world to note this great transformation has not come from
Western interventionalists or flying people in beautiful planes giving you
lectures on how to live and how to govern your own affairs,” the president
declared. “No, the gleaming marvels of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were not created by
the so-called nation-builders, neocons, or liberal nonprofits like those who
spent trillions and trillions of dollars failing to develop Kabul, Baghdad, so
many other cities.”
“In the end,” Trump continued, “the so-called
nation-builders wrecked far more nations than they built, and the
interventionalists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even
understand themselves. They told you how to do it, but they had no idea how to
do it themselves.”
The president’s gratuitous jab at the MAGA movement’s
Emmanuel Goldstein — the “neocons” and “nation-builders” who are simultaneously
vanquished forever and yet somehow also a looming menace nefariously plotting
their restoration to power — may not prove especially controversial. It should
be, though, if only because the president is dead wrong.
The glittering Arabian skylines, the region’s political
and commercial integration, and the relative regional peace necessary to create
this “modern miracle,” the “Arabian way” — all these wonders are due in no
small part to the efforts made by the Americans whom Trump and his movement
seem to enjoy denigrating.
Saudi Arabia no longer has to defend itself against the
barrage of ballistic missiles that Saddam Hussein’s Iraq rained down on the
country in the first Gulf War. Indeed, thanks to the second war on his regime,
it no longer has to worry about Saddam at all. That all-consuming regional
threat, which necessitated U.S. military intervention in 1991, 1993, 1998, and
2003 (to say nothing of the two no-fly zones that required constant and
dangerous policing), is no more.
With the end of the Baathist regime in Baghdad, the
region has experienced dramatic economic growth fueled not just by the export
of hydrocarbons but also by the development of sophisticated commercial
interests, ranging from logistical firms to tech start-ups and
financial-services providers.
Trump can say what he will about Kabul. The city was lost
to the Taliban during Joe Biden’s hapless tenure in the Oval Office. But Trump
wanted to withdraw, too, and it’s not clear that he would have engineered a
more satisfying retreat. He is, however, simply wrong about Baghdad.
Once a war-torn city defined by checkpoints and no-go
zones, substandard or nonexistent public services, and crumbling
infrastructure, Baghdad has been reborn. Today, “consumerist spaces like malls
and restaurants have become a dominant feature of postwar reconstruction,”
architecture writers Azadeh Mashayekhi and Rend Beiruti observed last year.
Foreign investment in commercial and civil-engineering projects has exploded in
recent years — projects that are no longer complicated by an armed insurgency but
by the messy, fractious politics that typify relatively free societies.
Trump and his coterie may regard the Iraq War as a
mistake. But they prefer the status quo that prevails today as a result of
Saddam’s ouster, if only because they seem to want to take credit for the
results that flowed from it.
***
That wasn’t the only dissonant moment of the speech.
Trump’s denunciation of “interventionalism” rings discordant given the extent
to which he praised his own style of interventionism. “Together we had
obliterated the killers of ISIS,” the president said with all due pride. But
the rise of the Islamic State was enabled by American nonintervention,
thus affording him the opportunity to engineer a critical military victory.
The ISIS caliphate emerged in eastern Syria several years
into that country’s civil war. It was incubated by the Bashar al-Assad regime,
which purchased its own oil from the terrorist proto-state while it crushed
relatively pro-Western rebel factions. That cynical game allowed the last
Baathist regime in the Middle East to claim that its opponents were, to a man,
Islamists.
ISIS spilled over the Syrian border in 2014 and collapsed
the Iraqi Security Forces because America allowed it to metastasize unchecked.
Obama had bugged out of Iraq less than three years earlier, relying on
Iran-backed Shiite militias to fill America’s gaps. The Islamic State caliphate
ceased to exist when the United States applied the muscle to it that skeptics
of U.S. interventionism had withheld for years.
Obama’s expedient effort to make Iran into the foremost
steward of U.S. interests in Iraq might have been delusional, but it advanced
his goal of securing a nuclear agreement with Tehran. The deal that emerged
from negotiations with the Islamic Republic looked past Tehran’s ballistic
missile program and its support for terrorism. It legitimized Iran’s ability to
enrich uranium to weapons grade, and it flooded the Islamic Republic with
liquid capital. Iran’s regional opponents, including representatives from the
countries Trump lauded in his address in Riyadh, were duly spooked.
Trump 1.0 capitalized on Obama’s mistakes. The Abraham
Accords were an outgrowth of the first Trump administration’s skillful
exploitation of the Sunni states’ hostility toward Iran, as well as the
evidence (apparent in Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign) that the U.S. would
once again serve as a reliable partner in the region’s effort to contain
Iranian aggression. The accords were not just a triumph of American diplomacy.
Would the region have been capable of that evolution if Saddam’s regime were still
paying bounties for dead Israeli civilians, elevating the Palestinian question
to the point that Israel’s Sunni neighbors couldn’t ignore it? In the absence
of the Iraq War and subsequent support for “democracy promotion” provided to
local actors, would there have been an Arab Spring? Those demonstrations did
not beget a more liberal social order in the Middle East, but they did give way
to economic reforms that produced a more egalitarian commercial culture, the
results of which Trump now finds so impressive.
The campaign to constrain Iran and frustrate its
ambitions was not defined by sanctions alone. By the middle of Trump’s first
term, it was clear that Iran was spoiling for a fight, and it wasn’t getting
one. It shot down U.S. surveillance drones, an act to which America did not
respond. It seized and sabotaged commercial shipping vessels in the Strait of
Hormuz. It organized a brazen and dramatic drone assault on the world’s largest
petroleum-processing facility inside Saudi Arabia — an attack to which America
reacted only by releasing an unspecified amount of oil from its strategic
reserves, stabilizing global energy markets, and foreclosing on the need for
armed retaliation. But Trump’s refusal to respond directly to Iran’s
provocations ensured that the regime would become only more reckless.
In the final months of 2019, Iran’s terrorist proxies
rained rockets down on the U.S. positions inside Iraq. Trump was reluctant to
respond to those attacks until one U.S. contractor died and three soldiers were
wounded. The U.S. retaliated, albeit proportionately, by striking sites from
which the attacks on U.S. forces originated. But Iran was not deterred. Tehran
organized a mob that laid siege to the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, breaching its
outer walls, setting fire to a reception area, and forcing American diplomats
to take shelter in safe rooms. It was then that Trump responded with
commensurate force, ordering the strike that took out Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps Commander Qasem Soleimani.
Iranian retaliation for that surprisingly bold maneuver
took the form of an unprecedented barrage of missiles into Iraq from Iranian
territory, but officials in Tehran also signaled their desire to secure a
face-saving de-escalation even as the missiles were in the air. With that, the
Abraham Accords suddenly had teeth.
Trump’s speech in Riyadh made a point of holding out an
olive branch to Iran by leaving open the prospect of a new Iran nuclear deal.
But there was little indication in the text that the president sought an
agreement to finalize America’s divorce from the region. He did not dance
around the regime’s fundamental illegitimacy, and he castigated both Obama’s
and Biden’s attempts to bribe Iran into complicity. Disengagement doesn’t seem
to be the president’s goal as it relates to Iran.
The same could be said of his stance on Syria. In the
speech, Trump shocked the world by announcing that he would extend the hand of
friendship to the provisional government in Damascus, the forces of which
ousted the Assad regime late last year. It was a grand gesture, one
incentivized by the new government’s hostility toward the Palestinian and
Iranian terror groups that once populated Assad’s Syria. It was also a
repudiation of his administration’s most vocal skeptics of America’s
extroverted posture on the world stage and a victory for the forces of
internationalism.
***
Within the Trump administration, the vanguard of a
movement that argues for “restraint” in the application of American soft and
hard power abroad had advocated a wait-and-see approach to determine if the
formerly terrorist-affiliated group in power in Damascus had truly changed its
stripes. Opponents of that approach warned that dithering in this moment could
scuttle the potential for a genuinely anti-Iranian bulwark to emerge in the
Levant.
That was the faction represented by Secretary of State
Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and former National Security Adviser
Mike Waltz. They won that argument against counterterrorism director Sebastian
Gorka and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. “So, I say good
luck, Syria,” Trump declared. “They’re going to show us something special. Very
good people.”
Trump deserves to be proud of America’s achievements in
the region. We all do. They are the culmination of generations of efforts by
America and its Western allies to create the world we inhabit today. We helped
collapse pan-Arabism and Baathism. We imported a commercial culture that was
not guaranteed to take hold in the Middle East when the region was dominated by
Soviet client states. We fought radical Islamism and made Wahhabism an
impractical proposition. These are civilizational successes that have given way
to a more stable and prosperous international environment. To someone surveying
the geopolitical landscape from the perspective of September 2001, the state of
play that prevails today would appear to be a partial victory at the very
least.
That’s why Trump’s jab at the hated “neocons” sounded so
out of place. It was a triumphalist assertion of dominance from the
nationalists and “restrainers” for whom the promotion of liberty abroad is the
great bugbear. But the speechwriters’ victory celebration rings hollow, if only
because the policies Trump wants to take credit for — namely, the successful
kind — were not a result of the global retrenchment that a policy of
“restraint” was supposed to beget.
America made plenty of mistakes in its post-9/11 wars,
but to conclude that America only made mistakes in Iraq would lead
observers to the confused conclusion that the modern Middle East sprang ex
nihilo from Mohammed bin Salman’s forehead. Such an outlook would be no less
blinkered than the caricatured worldview supposedly embraced by the reviled
“neocons.” Maybe those who thought Trump would engineer America’s retreat from
the world needed a confidence boost. If so, they can have it. A sop to their
pretensions is a small price to pay for policies that advance American
interests overseas.
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