Saturday, September 30, 2023

Criminals and Their Apologists

By Christine Rosen

Friday, September 29, 2023

 

In May 2023, in his inaugural address as mayor of Chicago, Brandon Johnson said, “The tears of Adam Toledo’s parents are made of the same sorrow as those of Officer Preston’s parents.”

 

Johnson was referring to the deaths of Chicago police officer Areanah Preston—killed in cold blood by a group of violent young criminals—and Adam Toledo, who was fleeing police at two in the morning after he and a companion were caught firing guns at passing cars. Officer Preston was murdered while returning home after a long shift spent protecting the people of Chicago. Toledo had an illegal gun in his possession and was killed while ignoring a police officer’s commands to stop.

 

Not that long ago, reasonable people would have seen Mayor Johnson’s efforts at moral equivalence as despicable—and Johnson would likely have known it and would have stopped short of saying what he said. Today, such statements are commonplace, even among public officials charged with upholding the law and protecting the public, local and federal prosecutors most notably. Our adversarial justice system is meant to ensure a balance of interests. Prosecutors build a case to seek justice for victims; defense lawyers protect the rights of the accused. Of late, however, progressive prosecutors have upended that balanced system of justice in favor of embracing the notion that both the perpetrators of crime and the people upon whom they prey are all equally victims.

 

As California’s Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price told a local CBS News reporter, “often what studies have shown—and it’s true in Alameda County—many times people who are perpetrators or labeled as perpetrators were actually victims.” Price recently gave an 18-year-old linked to three murders a plea deal that would have had him serve only a handful of years in juvenile detention due to the fact that the killings had been committed when he was younger—even though a judge urged that he be tried as an adult given his “extensive and violent criminal history in multiple jurisdictions.” A leaked memo revealed that Price had told prosecutors in her office to seek probation rather than jail time for most crimes, including violent felonies.

 

Conscientious prosecutors who have found themselves working under these new approaches are fleeing jobs in departments where DAs like Price have failed to pursue justice for victims. Danielle Hilton, who had been a prosecutor in Alameda County for almost 30 years, put it starkly in her resignation letter: “Victims deserve better.” As she wrote to Price, “I have spent my career picking up the pieces and gathering the fragments of lives shattered by violence. I encourage you to look at crime scene and autopsy photos, meet the victims of the robberies, sexual assaults, home burglaries and other crimes within the county. It is their voices you were elected to empower.”

 

In May 2023, another long-time Alameda County prosecutor, Assistant DA Butch Ford, also resigned, citing Price’s unwillingness to do her job—as well as the fact that when she arrived, she “demoted almost every Caucasian male in the office and stated, ‘the Blacks are taking over.’” Ford, like his colleague, told Price, “You have abandoned the victims of crime in this county.” Price’s policies, he said, “have led to violent offenders celebrating the lack of consequences in Alameda County.” He described how, at a rally that Price attended, “a recently paroled killer stated, ‘We gettin’ out left and right. We can do whatever the f—k we want out here.’”

 

It’s not just California. In May, Cook County prosecutor Jason Poje wrote an outraged letter of resignation from his position as assistant state’s attorney in Illinois. “The simple fact is that this State and County have set themselves on a course to disaster,” the letter said. Poje noted that communities have been endangered by policies such as “bond reform designed to make sure no one stays in jail while their cases are pending with no safety net to handle more criminals on the streets, shorter parole periods, lower sentences for repeat offenders . . . overuse of diversion programs, intentionally not pursuing prosecutions for crimes lawfully on the books.” These and other such notions have upended the foundations of the adversarial justice system. “Once we decide that it’s worth risking citizens’ lives to have a little social experiment,” Poje wrote, “that balance is lost.” 

 

The recent effort to sideline the needs of victims in favor of emphasizing the plight of criminals is part of a broader change that began decades ago. I’m speaking of the flourishing of a victimology culture that confers moral and social status on anyone claiming victimhood. As Bradley Campbell and Jason Manning have argued in their 2018 book, The Rise of Victimhood Culture, a victimhood arms race has broken out in which individual behavior is subsumed beneath claims that one has been wronged—all to achieve higher moral status and escape personal responsibility.

 

This culture has warped our understanding of what a victim really is. As victimhood expands to incorporate new groups and classes of protected people, not all of whom deserve the status of victim, the moral weight of victimhood has been diluted—and with it, society’s obligations to seek justice for real victims.

 

***

 

How did we get here? The story arguably begins with the work of another former Alameda County district attorney: Earl Warren. In the decades after Warren was sworn in as chief justice of the U.S. Supreme Court in 1953, he helped launch a revolution in criminal procedure, most notably with regard to the validity of evidence gathered in an unconstitutional search (Mapp vOhio, 1961), the obligation to provide counsel to defendants (Gideon v. Wainwright, 1963), and law enforcement’s obligation to inform those under arrest of their rights (Miranda v. Arizona, 1966), among many other cases. The Court effectively tilted the balance in criminal law toward a focus on the rights of the accused. Although wildly unpopular among Americans at the time, such rights are now largely embraced by the public and even by most conservative jurists.

 

In the decades that followed, in popular culture, particularly on television, the new rights guaranteed by the Supreme Court became standard. When then–Chief Justice William Rehnquist upheld Miranda rights in a 2000 decision, he noted how the reading of rights to suspects had become ubiquitous on network-television crime shows. As Broadcasting & Cable Magazine editorialized at the time, “next to the Pledge of Allegiance, the Miranda rights may be the most familiar common litany of the baby boomer generation, thanks to TV.”

 

Similarly, advocates for a rehabilitative model of criminal justice (as opposed to deterrence and incarceration) gained new support during those years for the idea that crime was largely an expression of environmental factors such as poverty—thus downplaying personal responsibility and arguing that imprisonment should be a tool of last resort. The Prisoner Rehabilitation Act of 1965, for example, granted federal prisoners broader rights to furloughs and work-release programs and created halfway houses placing newly released inmates in communities. In 1963, the infamous Alcatraz prison was shuttered, a symbol of an earlier, harsher age of incarceration

 

Then came the social upheaval of the 1960s counterculture, with its mistrust of authority (especially the police), increased drug use, and the breakdown of traditional families. All of this undermined existing law-enforcement efforts. Crime rose precipitously, particularly in large cities, and by the 1970s a backlash against soft-on-crime policies was underway. It received a significant boost from Robert Martinson’s 1974 report, “What Works? Questions and Answers About Prison Reform.” Summarizing his findings in the Public Interest, Martinson offered a tough verdict: “With few and isolated exceptions, the rehabilitative efforts that have been reported so far have had no appreciable effect on recidivism.” Crime was rising because the policies that claimed to change criminal behavior had failed to do so. As Martinson’s report concluded about the rehabilitative approach: “Nothing works.”

 

Another part of the backlash against soft-on-crime policies was much-needed attention finally given to victims. States passed laws allowing victims to read victim-impact statements during sentencing procedures, for example, and statutes such as New York’s 1978 “Son of Sam” law attempted to prevent criminals from profiting from their crimes.1 Congress passed a federal Crime Victims’ Rights Act in 1984 as well as a Victims’ Rights and Restitution Act, and most large cities and states established crime-victim compensation funds. Following along the same backlash pattern, the 1980s and 1990s saw tougher sentencing and “three-strikes” laws, supported by majorities of the public.

 

Yet even as tough-on-crime measures took hold, the idea that blame and responsibility for criminal behavior should be shared by society never fully receded, particularly among legal scholars and decarceration activists. Poverty, addiction, chaotic neighborhoods, lack of resources, mental-health issues—all the things once regularly and correctly cited as “risk factors” for criminal behavior were now more likely to be referred to as “root causes.”

 

The change in language is significant.

 

If something is the cause of a behavior (rather than merely a “factor”), individual responsibility becomes less predominant in the calculus of accountability. In this new rendering, the perpetrator of crime is trapped in a Skinner box of social dysfunction that makes the exercise of judgment and free will difficult if not impossible—and thus he cannot be held responsible for his actions. This was a seductive idea to those who remained skeptical of the criminal-justice system, even as it overlooked the obvious fact that most people who grow up in high-risk environments don’t become criminals, and plenty of people who grow up with privilege do.

 

Alongside this focus on “root causes” for crime was a broader self-help movement that also contributed to the notion that, because of circumstances, people could not always be held accountable for their behavior. The phrase “hurt people hurt people” emerged in the 1990s, initially among self-help gurus (a book with that title by self-help author Sandra Wilson was published in 1993) but quickly spread into popular culture—along with the idea that even perpetrators of harm should be understood as potential victims.

 

By the 2000s, criminal-justice reformers regularly invoked the “victim-offender overlap” theory—the fact that many victims of crime are also perpetrators of crime—to argue for more lenient consideration of criminal acts. It is true, as the National Institute of Justice notes in a 2021 report, that “statistically, being an individual who has committed violent crimes correlates with an elevated risk of later becoming a victim of violent crime. At the same time, violent crime victims have been shown to be more likely than others to later engage in violence.”

 

The error is introduced when advocates and leading legal theorists treat this as a deterministic certainty, one that should override personal responsibility. Stanford University professor Barbara Fried2 argued in a 2013 symposium, “Beyond Blame,” that “the philosophy of personal responsibility has ruined criminal justice and economic policy. It’s time to move past blame.” Imagine being the victim of a brutal assault and hearing that one should just “move past blame.”

 

Likewise, law professor Adam Benforado argued in his 2015 book, Unfair, “Our surroundings often exert such a powerful influence that they all but erase the effects of disposition.” New research into brain science has prompted biologists to add their own insight to the challenge of free will and responsibility. Stanford’s Robert Sapolsky argued this: “Our growing knowledge about the brain makes the notions of volition, culpability, and, ultimately, the very premise of the criminal justice system, deeply suspect.”

 

Embracing the idea of deterministic social forces as exculpatory for perpetrators compromises justice for victims. Indeed, a new revisionist impulse to question or erase victims is already underway in academic circles. A symposium sponsored by the Brooklyn Law Review in 2022 showcased this approach in its title: “The Role of the ‘Victim’ in the Criminal Legal System.” Note the scare quotes around the word “victim.”

 

Writing about the victim-offender overlap, Cynthia Godsoe, of Brooklyn Law School, claims the criminal-justice system’s inability to see perpetrators as victims constitutes a “failure to address the root causes and cyclical nature of violence” that “perpetuates a racialized narrative of individual culpability and a stark moral binary between those who harm and those who are harmed.” Yes, Professor Godsoe, it does. That’s exactly what justice requires: an assessment of an individual’s acts when they violate the rule of law and harm another person, even as judges and juries are asked to consider any mitigating circumstances. Eliminating the “stark moral binary” eliminates our ability to discern right from wrong and in the process removes the person of central moral importance when it comes to the pursuit of justice: the victim.

 

In this new paradigm, however, even the terms “victim” and “offender” are suspect. “Much of the terminology associated with the criminal system—including ‘victim’ and ‘offender’—are [sic] laden with normative and stigmatized concepts, and do not accurately capture the full experiences and humanity of either those who are harmed or those who harm,” Godsoe argues. She goes on to use the term “offender” only in quotes and argues that offenders (excuse me, “offenders”) suffer from “perpetration trauma,” or “trauma arising from committing violence.” Citing studies of post-traumatic stress disorder experienced by combat soldiers, she claims that the trauma experienced by violent criminals (as opposed to their victims) is underappreciated, “reflecting the dominant narrative about the moral culpability of those who commit crime, particularly violent crime.”

 

Her solution is to include violent offenders in decarceration efforts and to “dismantle the victim and ‘offender’ categories themselves.” Ultimately, she argues, we must “recognize the victimhood of those who harm, and conversely the harm committed by victims.”

 

Other contributors to the 2022 symposium offered equally dismissive approaches to victims. Two contributors criticized the rights of victims to offer victim-impact statements at trials, while another, Steven Zeidman, doubled down on the Skinner-box approach to personal responsibility with this observation: “Individual traits are not the driver of criminal behavior. Yet, the inability of those involved in the system to share evidence of their social background, and the refusal of actors in the system to view these factors as significantly mitigating, if not excusing, means that the problem is only swept under the rug.”

 

And so, despite the lessons learned from overly liberal crime policies in the previous century, many of them are ascendant again. We’ve seen the return of the decarceration and prison-abolition movement, the success of defund-the-police activism, and the end of cash bail, as well as claims that criminals simply can’t help themselves or their behavior because they live at the whim of oppressive “systemic” forces that control their behavior.

 

These policies have a body count.

 

The end of cash bail for violent offenders has returned to the streets people who have killed or assaulted again, even as their victims’ stories go untold or are ignored by activists. Excessive use of diversionary- and restorative-justice programs failed to have the desired effect of combatting crime; indeed, in many cities, prosecutors have simply given up prosecuting some crimes.

 

In Washington, D.C., awash in gun violence despite strict gun-control laws, more than 60 percent of arrests for carrying an unlicensed firearm are “no-papered” by the local attorney general—meaning prosecutors declined to prosecute the case. When asked by a local reporter about the steep rise in violent crime committed by juveniles—including the murder by a group of teenagers of a Lyft driver who had escaped war-torn Afghanistan to build a new life in the U.S. and the murder of a construction worker by a 14-year-old—D.C. Attorney General Brian Schwalb sounded like an unctuous therapist rather than a representative of law enforcement. He told a local news station that violent kids just need more “compassion” and “support” from the community. He said nothing about the victims or their grieving families No wonder homicide rates are climbing in D.C. even as they decline slightly in many other cities. By the beginning of August 2023, D.C. had more than 150 homicides for the year, which puts it on track for a homicide rate higher than it has been for decades. D.C.’s U.S. Attorney Matthew M. Graves has also demonstrated an unwillingness to prosecute crime: He declined to press charges for 67 percent of the arrests his office received.

 

Social-justice concerns now predominate in discussions of crime. In a book titled In Defense of Looting, widely praised by left-leaning media outlets, including National Public Radio, Vicky Osterweil claims that destruction and looting represent “a new energy of resistance” that should be celebrated as questioning a “law and order” society that tolerates social and economic inequality. Ostwerweil has no time to consider the impact on the lives of the people whose livelihoods were destroyed and lives threatened by these liberating looters.

 

In noncriminal settings, such as K–12 schools, the logic of victimhood culture has encouraged the embrace of questionable restorative-justice programs to combat bullying and assaults. Rather than remove a dangerous student from school to protect most children, faculty make the victims of harassment and bullying discuss their feelings with the person who attacked them. Like so much of progressive criminal-justice theory, restorative justice is oriented toward the perpetrator, who is meant to be made to understand the harm he or she caused by having to confront his or her victim, as opposed to being made to accept the blame and punishment that ordinary justice demands. Reconciliation talks, group hugs, therapy circles—these ultimately put the perpetrator’s needs front and center while encouraging the victim to believe that he or she has an obligation not only to listen to the attacker but to forgive. What if a victim doesn’t want to confront his abuser and discuss his feelings, or listen to his attacker’s feelings?

 

For adult victims of crime, the existing infrastructure for victims does not always meet their needs. A report from the Alliance for Safety and Justice found that although millions of Americans reported having been the victims of crime, “only 243,000 people had victims’ compensation applications approved” in 2018. Many crime victims aren’t aware such resources exist; or they are told that to receive them they must first exhaust all other avenues of financial support; or they must cooperate fully with law enforcement, which in some cases, such as domestic violence, might put them at great risk.

 

Even existing victims’ funds can’t provide compensation for the full costs of physical and psychological recovery, which include hours lost to anxiety and trauma in addition to healing from injuries. John Jay College of Criminal Justice estimates that between 2010 and 2020, the cost to hospitals of treating gunshot victims was $469 million, and nearly 70 percent of that cost was borne by taxpayers, both at the state and federal level (via Medicare and Medicaid payments).

 

As for the “root causes” invoked to explain away responsibility for the perpetrators of crime, the discussion of crime is conveniently turned into a hazy question of social justice, which is far more amenable territory for the (usually white) progressive activist class whose privilege protects them from the experience of crime. It has become impossible for a section of American elite opinion to even acknowledge that there is a place for punishment in a society where elites insist on tolerance (while insulating themselves from the effects of their tolerance by installing actual or virtual gates that prevent the bad guys from coming too close).

 

They are aided and abetted by the many progressive prosecutors happy to throw good money after bad platitudes when it comes to the perpetrators of crime. Jamila Hodge, a former federal prosecutor in Washington, D.C., claimed in The Appeal, “In all my time, I never met a person who had caused harm who hadn’t been a victim first, often facing trauma and harm beginning in childhood.” Her solution? To “shift away from punishment, rooted in slavery and racism, toward solutions that address the needs of communities ravaged by violence. What we build must deliver healing, safety, and accountability that repairs for all parties involved in harm—including the person who caused it.”

 

This is wrongheaded and dangerous. It is wrongheaded because it grants equal moral status to victims and perpetrators; and it is dangerous because, however nice such wishful thinking and “healing” rhetoric sound, its methods are ineffective at protecting innocent people from violent criminals. As D.C.’s crime rate demonstrates, Hodge and her ilk would have done better to spend more time reading history and criminal procedure and less time delivering their special brand of “healing.”

 

It is good and just to set boundaries for who is and who is not a real victim. Invoking broad claims of victimhood should never be used as an excuse for criminal behavior or as a tool of moral equivocation. It is true that many offenders are also victims. But distinguishing between good and criminal behavior, even within the lifespan of a single person, is possible and necessary.

 

In the communities often hardest hit by crime, minority neighborhoods, people are getting fed up—and some organizations are finally responding to them. Recently, the NAACP in Oakland issued an open letter calling on politicians to do more to prevent crime, including announcing a state of emergency: “Oakland residents are sick and tired of our intolerable public safety crisis that overwhelmingly impacts minority communities. Murders, shootings, violent armed robberies, home invasions, car break-ins, sideshows, and highway shootouts have become a pervasive fixture of life in Oakland.”

 

Violent crime is so common in Oakland that utility workers now require private security personnel to accompany them when they do their jobs. The reasons, according to the NAACP? “Failed leadership, including the movement to defund the police, our District Attorney’s unwillingness to charge and prosecute people who murder and commit life threatening serious crimes, and the proliferation of anti-police rhetoric have created a heyday for Oakland criminals. If there are no consequences for committing crime in Oakland, crime will continue to soar.”

 

And yet, the public officials charged with ensuring public safety place the consequences elsewhere. Mayor Johnson of Chicago recently responded to the precipitous rise in carjackings and car theft in the city (many committed by armed assailants) not by announcing policies to crack down on the criminals committing such acts—but by announcing that he would be suing the manufacturers of car such as Hyundai and Kia for making them too easy to steal! Many of the “reforms” touted by progressive activists and elected officials (making more crimes misdemeanors, eliminating cash bail, refusing to prosecute many crimes) benefit perpetrators while leaving victims and law-abiding citizens everywhere feeling as if their concerns and their rights no longer matter.

 

If we don’t reject a culture of victimhood so expansive that it encompasses violent criminals, the consequences will be far more dire than rising crime rates. We will have failed, as a society, to protect one another and to ensure swift and sure justice for our fellow citizens. Crime rates rise and fall, but a society whose citizens stop believing that justice is fair and right and possible can move in only one direction: downward.

 

1 The U.S. Supreme Court declared New York’s law unconstitutional in 1991, calling it “overinclusive” and violative of the First Amendment.

 

2 Fried has been in the news in the past year because she is the mother of Sam Bankman-Fried, currently under indictment for massive financial fraud.

Something Is Going to Break

By Michael Brendan Dougherty

Friday, September 29, 2023

 

Have you ever seen a big mechanical breakdown? The arms and belts of a machine get into some kind of hinky relationship and begin dancing. There’s this moment of suspense about whether the process under way will slow down and the machine will implode relatively safely. But, as often as not, the problem is that inertial and load-bearing parts of the system have broken away, so everything just speeds up terrifyingly. You know an arm or belt is going to escape its current centripetal motion and just launch at terminal velocity. You can just hope that you’re not standing in its way.

 

That’s how I feel watching the 2024 election shaping up. Some of the brakes in the system are clearly not working. A man who has been indicted four times for 91 criminal acts shouldn’t be running for president of the United States. And he really shouldn’t be the front-runner. And yet he is. Also, the sitting president’s Justice Department shouldn’t have an open investigation against its chief political rival, one that will allow the attorney general or his deputies to bring forth testimony and hearings at times that will manipulate the political cycle. None of this should happen, but we all feel that each action — Trump running again, Biden indicting him — is the logical and necessary consequence of some other previous failure. Like a mechanical breakdown, the physical laws of the universe are being obeyed — all the political momentum is understandable and even somewhat predictable. But the engineering failure guarantees that the result is a disaster.

 

None of the parts of this election fit together. Democrats sincerely believe that Donald Trump is a threat to the Constitution of the United States. They believe his disrespect for the law and norms of office, combined with his ability to command the political loyalty of scores of millions of Republicans, threatens to tear apart the American system. Some of them believe that Trump’s affinity for foreign tyrants, and his proclaimed determination to end the war in Ukraine, somehow puts the fate of the whole free world at stake. And yet, Democrats have no other plan to avert these enormities than to re-run Joe Biden, who is plainly heading into steep cognitive decline and whom over 70 percent of the country believes is too old to be president. Again, the political physics are just entirely mismatched. The Joe Biden of 2024 is not safety-rated for a project of this scale.

 

Donald Trump is similarly unfit for Republican ambitions. Republicans sincerely believe that a critical number of private and public institutions in national life have been entirely captured by progressives and are now being weaponized against them. Academia and the intelligence agencies produce bogus studies about disinformation, that are then used to recommend censorship across the internet. Little old ladies and Franciscan friars who protest at abortion clinics are getting the book thrown at them, while illegal immigrants get invited to a free stay in Manhattan hotels. Some states are vaguely hinting that Christian forms of parenting are inherently abusive of children, denying Christians the ability to adopt. Republicans want to drain the swamp, but are nominating a man who, when he was president, was regularly defied by the Pentagon and other agencies. He would announce a ban on transgender servicemen, then the military would announce an expansion of services for transgender servicepersons. He would announce a withdrawal from Syria, then the Pentagon would announce an extension of our stay there. “Wokeness” flourished in American institutions during his administration. For Republicans to even have a hope of rebalancing the executive branch’s institutions, they need an administrator with ferocious follow-through, and they probably need him for two terms. Donald Trump can’t be either of those things.

 

How can the United States claim to be a functioning democracy when it now regularly produces elections where the candidates are so loathed by such large numbers of the population? Nearly 60 percent of the country said that Donald Trump should not hold office again, but in a head-to-head matchup with Biden, he’s currently leading. Nearly three-quarters of the country believes Biden is too old to be president at all. But, again, matched against Trump, many Democrats are concluding that he’s their best and only realistic hope.

 

It’s very foreseeable how a significant portion of the Left would respond to a Donald Trump victory, as Donald Trump responded to a Joe Biden victory: with extra-legal means. It’s very foreseeable that a Joe Biden victory is dangerous to the country — having a mentally incapacitated member of the Silent Generation as commander in chief while the country is fighting a proxy war against the largest nuclear-armed power on Earth has some rather obvious downsides.

 

What does it say about our civilization that we’re all just sitting here, watching this unfold as if it were a TikTok video from the third world, and not the fate of our country?

The ‘Draft Youngkin’ Conspiracy

By Nick Catoggio

Friday, September 29, 2023

 

I sat down to write this morning about the “Draft Youngkin” push among Republican donors and had the sense that I’d covered it before.

 

When you write every day, you’ve covered practically everything before.

 

So I checked the Dispatch archives and there it was. “Is Glenn Youngkin Running for (Vice) President?

The date was … September 29, 2022.

 

One year later to the day, quasi-influential people on the American right are still entertaining this dopey fantasy.

 

It was slightly less dopey a year ago. Even then, I didn’t like Glenn Youngkin’s chances against Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis. How would the mild-mannered governor of Virginia, a thoroughly traditional conservative, overcome two demagogues in an increasingly feral party? But if you taxed your imagination, you could spitball a theory of how it might happen. DeSantis looked formidable at the time and was poised to compete aggressively for the MAGA vote. If he and Trump ended up splitting it, Youngkin could potentially have consolidated the normie minority and snuck through in a three-way race. Maybe?

 

It’s now September 29, 2023. Trump is well north of 50 percent in national primary polling. DeSantis no longer appears formidable. The type of normies at whom a last-second Youngkin candidacy would be aimed have taken a shine to Nikki Haley and might already be consolidating behind her. Not only is there less room for Youngkin in this primary than looked to be the case a year ago, his entry at this point could seal Trump’s victory by complicating Haley’s effort to unite conservative voters.

 

Which raises a question. Do Republican mega-donors … even understand politics?

 

I believe they do. The “Draft Youngkin” movement seems to me less a product of ignorance than a form of conspiratorial thinking.

 

***

 

Robert Costa of the Washington Post never uses the word “stupid” in his new report on crescendoing buzz for Youngkin among the donor class but his skepticism radiates contempt for their political acuity. And properly so.

 

Drafting Youngkin as a last-minute addition to the sclerotic Republican presidential field is something that has lingered for months as a donor fantasy—a whispered, can-you-imagine gambit rarely meriting much discussion because there has been widespread hope that somebody, anybody, would gain traction against former president Donald Trump. But now, fantasy talk of an audacious, break-the-glass moment for the anti-Trump faction has morphed into not-so-quiet consideration.

 

 

The thirsting for Youngkin is not a well-orchestrated power play. It is the latest slapdash scheme in a long search for a standard-bearer and a portrait of the powerlessness so many Republicans feel as Trump plows ahead, shrugging off criminal indictments and outrage over rhetoric they fear is growing dark and dangerous.

 

Some fat cats are planning to attend the governor’s annual “Red Vest Retreat” next month to lobby him in person about jumping into the primary. Others are already working the phones to pitch him on rescuing the party from Trump. All of which is great for Youngkin, of course, particularly with Virginia’s elections bearing down in November. If he can leverage suspense about his presidential intentions into excitement and fundraising that helps the GOP flip the statehouse, he’ll have cemented his reputation as a political miracle-worker capable of turning blue states red. That’ll be useful to him in 2028.

 

Maybe?

 

The “Draft Youngkin” push is also good for Jonah Goldberg’s thesis that small donors, not large ones, are now the greater threat to democracy. A post-liberal strongman with four criminal indictments and one coup attempt to his name is steaming toward the Republican nomination, bankrolled by an army of grassroots populists. The rich guys pining for center-right normie Glenn Youngkin are prepared to spend millions to try to head that strongman off at the pass. Say what you will about their “Draft Youngkin” gambit, at least it’s civically healthy.

 

But it’s a fantasy. Not just politically but logistically.

 

At National ReviewJim Geraghty runs down the many impending filing deadlines Team Youngkin would need to meet to make the ballot in certain early primary states. Nevada’s is October 15; South Carolina’s is October 31; the next Republican debate, set for November 8, will require candidates to reach 4 percent in multiple polls and 70,000 unique donors across at least 20 states before they qualify.

 

That’s a heavy organizational lift for Youngkin. What if he tried it—and failed?

 

Imagine if the governor turned his attention away from Virginia’s elections to run for the White House, local Republicans ended up losing seats in both chambers, and he missed the various deadlines facing him as a presidential candidate. It’s one thing to mount a futile campaign against Donald Trump, it’s another to squander your party’s chances at meaningful legislative power for the sake of chasing your own selfish political ambitions. He’d be a failure twice over. His reputation would never recover.

 

Even if he qualified for the debate, not qualifying for the ballot in Nevada and South Carolina would probably sink him. Any hope of defeating Trump depends on stopping him in the early states and denying him momentum that might lead to a runaway victory on Super Tuesday. A candidate who isn’t even technically a candidate in two of those four early states is conceding an advantage to the frontrunner that likely can’t be overcome.

 

Frankly, for all the media hype, I’m not even sure there’d be as much big-donor money waiting for Youngkin once he got in as he’s been led to believe. The Haley Express is leaving the station. Some fat-cat Republicans are hopping aboard.

 

With so many really obvious reasons to think the governor’s challenge to Trump would fall woefully short, why do some wealthy conservatives persist in believing otherwise?

 

Partly, I think, it’s a matter of treating political giving as an act of moral gratification. Witness the number of times in the past decade that liberal small donors have dumped oceans of cash on no-hope Democrats in red states running against the progressive base’s least favorite Republicans. There’s no easier way to sate your hatred of Ted Cruz or Lindsey Graham than by smashing the “donate” button on a fundraising email sent by one of their opponents. It’s the height of idiocy as a strategic matter, as all of that wasted cash might have helped competitive Democrats win tight races in battleground states.

 

But most people don’t donate strategically. They donate therapeutically. They channel their contempt for a particular politician into a gift of money to a challenger who’s standing in his way, whether the race is competitive or not. Is it that hard to believe mega-rich Reaganite Republican donors might behave the same way toward Trump?

 

Lord knows, what they’re doing isn’t about strategy. Adding Glenn Youngkin to the field would almost certainly boost Trump’s chances of victory by further dividing the anti-Trump vote.

 

I think there’s more going on here.

 

***

 

Conspiracy theories appeal because they make disasters that otherwise seem unfathomable comprehensible. They’re a coping mechanism amid mass psychological trauma. When reality becomes too frightening and chaotic to accept, the specter of a conspiracy reassures us that “reality” isn’t what it seems. The traditional powers-that-be are still secretly in control.

 

Six million Jews weren’t killed in the Holocaust. That’s unimaginable. JFK wasn’t assassinated by a disaffected pinko with sniper training. The course of American history couldn’t be altered so easily. Jihadis didn’t knock down the World Trade Center. The United States, with its sophisticated security apparatus, isn’t that vulnerable. Democrats didn’t win the 2020 election. “Real American” Republican populists aren’t a minority.

 

The Holocaust must be Western propaganda. Kennedy must have been eliminated by a government plot. George W. Bush must have orchestrated the 9/11 attacks as a pretext for invading the Middle East. The 2020 election must have been rigged to deny Trump his rightful victory. 

 

The conspiratorial explanation restores a modicum of stability to a drastically destabilized order.

 

Isn’t that what the “Draft Youngkin” fantasy is? A bunch of rich center-right Republicans can’t accept the reality of what their party has become, and so they’ve retreated into a fantasy in which a milquetoast normie Republican remains viable in a national primary. It’s a straightforward matter of finding the right man with the right message and giving him the right amount of money. DeSantis wasn’t that guy, it turns out, but the natural order of the political universe abides.

 

Donald Trump isn’t inevitable. The base isn’t eager for authoritarian rule. It just seems that way because the right challenger hasn’t been found yet. The GOP’s fine, more or less.

 

Comforting illusions about normalcy were also the subject of yesterday’s newsletter, you’ll recall. You want to know how “normal” this party actually is right now? Per a new report in the New York Times, a right-wing outside group with ties to the Club for Growth has been testing dozens of anti-Trump ads among Republican voters to see which ones work and which don’t. The result, according to a memo the group sent to its donors: Out of more than 40 screened, none worked. Not one. Even those that included video of Trump “saying liberal or stupid comments from his own mouth.”

 

“Even when you show video to Republican primary voters — with complete context — of President Trump saying something otherwise objectionable to primary voters, they find a way to rationalize and dismiss it,” [David] McIntosh states in the “key learnings” section of the memo.

 

 

Examples of “failed” ads cited in the memo included attacks on Mr. Trump’s “handling of the pandemic, promotion of vaccines, praise of Dr. Fauci, insane government spending, failure to build the wall, recent attacks on pro-life legislation, refusal to fight woke issues, openness to gun control, and many others.”

 

When the group showed Republicans an ad highlighting Trump’s support for Anthony Fauci and the COVID vaccines, his support went … up. When it showed them an ad produced by Liz Cheney’s group showcasing Trump’s actions on January 6, his support went … up.

 

It’s a cult. And cults will not be reasoned with.

 

I understand why the donor class has trouble accepting that initially. I did too, but we’re now eight years into this. These people have the financial wherewithal to ensure that they’re impeccably informed about the state of the party, with access to data you and I can only imagine, yet somehow they still haven’t come to grips with the truth. Tim Miller of The Bulwark has been pleading with them to stop wasting obscene amounts of money on hopeless conservative candidacies and to reckon honestly and conscientiously with the nature of the institution they continue to support.



The leader of the Republican Party has mainstreamed actual physical intimidation as a political tool against his enemies and is being rewarded for it by Republican voters with a 40-point lead in the primary.

 

And the donor class thinks Glenn “Sweater Vest” Youngkin is going to swoop in and blow him up?

 

***

 

Even for Never Trumpers, the truth about what’s happened to the party can still be hard. Take, for instance, the debate that’s raged over the last few months in traditionally conservative quarters (including The Dispatch) over whether Ron DeSantis had a real chance at the nomination and blew it or whether he never had a chance to begin with.

 

To hold the latter view isn’t to exculpate the governor for how he’s run his campaign. In some ways, it’s been objectively bad. His decision to run to Trump’s right by touting himself as the ultimate culture warrior instead of running to the center and drawing a contrast on competence and electability will be seen as the great strategic what-if of the primary after it’s over.

 

One can view the “Draft Youngkin” push as a verrrrry belated (far too belated, realistically) attempt to answer that question in real time. Youngkin could jump in and try the “competence and electability” strategy that DeSantis opted not to follow, after all. He prevailed in a heavily Democratic state in 2021, which gives him electability chops. And he’s clearly a sharp guy who knows policy and has been willing to advance Republican priorities on cultural disputes, albeit not as aggressively or belligerently as DeSantis. He’s well positioned to argue that he’d get more votes than Trump would and would govern more effectively as president.

 

My question to those who believe “competence and electability” is the unused secret sauce that would have defeated Trump if deployed sooner is this: What have you seen from the base of this party in the past six months to make you believe they would respond to a rational argument against its hero?

 

He’s been indicted four times on 91 counts and polls higher now than he did before. Do we really think calling him “incompetent” a certain magical number of times will break a spell like that?

 

“Trump is unelectable” barely qualifies as a rational argument at this point, frankly. The polls don’t bear it out. Head-to-head in surveys against Biden, he routinely fares a bit better than DeSantis does. Sure, he has more political baggage than the rest of the Republican field, but he also has more ardent support, especially among low-propensity voters who might not turn out for any other nominee. It’s simply not true that he’s unelectable, or even that he’s the least electable candidate in the field.

 

As for competence, read through the Times story excerpted above and try hard to wrap your mind around the fact that Republican voters no longer have an objective standard of what’s “competent” and what isn’t, at least where Trump is involved. Whatever he thinks, whatever actions he took as president, are deemed competent per se. How are the governors of Florida and Virginia supposed to reason them out of a comically unreasonable belief like that??

 

Blaming DeSantis for not having run a better campaign implicitly does Trump and the GOP a favor, I think, by normalizing the party’s voters as more responsible than they are. To believe that the governor blew his chance by not running on competence and electability is necessarily to believe that the modern Republican base cares about such things—and cares about them enough that they would have thrown off their cult trappings and chosen a new leader if only the case had been made sooner and more emphatically.

 

Do any of us really believe that at this point?

 

It’s a cult. It’s an unfathomable disaster, and the psychological trauma that it’s caused understandably has led us to comforting fantasies like “Youngkin could win” or “DeSantis could have won.” But we need to see reality clearly so that the balance of American voters see it clearly too. The more clear-eyed they are next fall about the prospect of being governed by a cult, the less likely they’ll be to make that choice. The truth hurts; let’s make sure it hurts as much as it should.

The Mother of All Fiscal Cliffs

By Dominic Pino

Thursday, September 28, 2023

 

The current argument over government funding and the risk of a shutdown is small potatoes. The debt-limit fight over the summer was small potatoes. Even the great “fiscal cliff” of 2012–13 was small potatoes. The mother of all fiscal cliffs is coming in 2025, and we’re not ready for it.

 

Paul Winfree has worked on budget issues in the White House and in Congress. An economic historian, he has written a book on the history of the U.S. budget process. He’s the president and CEO of the Economic Policy Innovation Center, a new think tank founded to help guide lawmakers on economic issues. And he’s alarmed by what’s coming in 2025 and how nonchalant most in Washington are about it.

 

“When I talk to members of Congress, one of the responses I get from folks is, ‘Thank you for thinking about this because we don’t have the bandwidth right now to get into this issue,’” Winfree says. The issue? About $5 trillion in new debt that’s expected to hit in 2025. That’s five times the level of the 2009 stimulus bill responding to the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, and it’s expected to come in a time of no wars, low unemployment, and a growing economy.

 

Brian Riedl studies the federal budget all day, every day, as a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. He says of his future research, “All of 2024 is going to be prepping for this stuff in 2025.” He also talks to lawmakers and is also not confident they are taking this issue seriously. “There is just no appetite in Washington to make the hard decisions right now to rein in the deficits.”

 

***

 

All of the individual-taxpayer provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expire on December 31, 2025. That means if Congress does nothing, tax rates will increase, the standard deduction will decrease, and the tax burden will increase for most taxpayers. Some of the business provisions of the TCJA will also expire, such as the treatment of cross-border income and payments, bonus depreciation of investments, and opportunity-zone tax credits. The child tax credit will also decrease from a maximum of $2,000 per child to a maximum of $1,000 per child.

 

“These were all built-in tax increases that were designed essentially to meet the ten-year-budget-window rules that allow for reconciliation,” says Will McBride, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation. Republicans used the budget-reconciliation process to pass the TCJA in 2017 so they would need only 50 votes in the Senate to pass it rather than the 60 that would have been required to break a Democratic filibuster.

 

Expiring on the same day is a set of health-care subsidies. The Affordable Care Act, a.k.a. Obamacare, offered subsidies to households making up to 400 percent of the federal poverty line. President Biden’s American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) temporarily removed that cap. Then the so-called Inflation Reduction Act extended that suspension through the end of 2025.

 

Democrats planned for the cap to come back at the same time TCJA provisions expired. The idea was that no matter who was in office at the end of 2025, each party would have something important it wanted extended. Republicans get to keep their tax cuts, Democrats get to keep their Obamacare subsidies, everyone’s happy.

 

That would be fine if the parties each had some budgetary offsets in mind that they would use to pay for the extensions. But that’s unlikely to happen. In fact, we should expect 2025 to be a time of high pressure to increase spending even further.

 

“You typically don’t see a lot of fiscal consolidations and benefits being taken away shortly after a new presidential term begins,” Riedl says. “It typically goes in the other direction.” A new administration will begin in January 2025, and the first year is usually a time to reward the people who helped get you elected, not to cut the deficit.

 

On top of that general rule, there are more factors specific to 2025 that will make things difficult. The ARPA’s State and Local Recovery Fund gave $350 billion in federal money to state and local governments. According to the Treasury rules governing the fund, states have until the end of 2024 to obligate spending from it and until the end of 2026 to actually make the expenditures. So state and local officials, from both parties, are going to be descending on Washington in 2025 and begging for more money.

 

“Since the beginning of Covid, $190 billion has gone to schools alone,” Winfree says. “If school districts have been using that money to hire teachers or provide extra activities, there’s not going to be money for that anymore.” For-the-sake-of-the-children arguments will abound, and no politician wants to say no to the children.

 

Also expiring at the end of 2026 is nearly $400 billion in contract authority under the bipartisan infrastructure law. Difficult as it may be to believe, a lot of contractors can be expected to argue that the $1.1 trillion law didn’t spend enough.

 

The reason, paradoxically, is that it spent too much. By flooding the market for infrastructure construction with so much cash, the law, combined with other federal spending and overall economic trends, spurred price inflation within the industry. “If the government is telling you you have to build now to receive the money, you’ll move resources to that, and it will increase costs,” Winfree says.

 

For example, the government has allocated tens of billions of dollars for broadband-internet infrastructure in the past few years. That much cash for just one relatively small industry has caused the costs of materials to increase, and firms have struggled to find enough workers for the sudden influx of new projects, which has caused labor costs to increase as well. Additionally, as a Government Accountability Office report from May found, broadband spending is spread over at least 133 programs in 15 different agencies, and there is little national strategy guiding it.

 

A lot of infrastructure projects that started under one set of cost assumptions will have much higher costs in reality, which means a lot of projects that will have already begun by 2025 will need more money to be completed. Contractors from around the country will swarm Washington to explain why they need additional funding for those new bridges the politicians promised.

 

Winfree notes the negative economic effects of much of this spending as well. In a September blog post, he found that since the ARPA passed in 2021, private fixed investment has fallen by 1.3 percent but manufacturing construction has increased by 55 percent. That suggests the entire boom in manufacturing construction celebrated by the Biden administration is driven by government subsidies and that they’re crowding out private investment.

 

A look at the labor market makes the crowding out more apparent. The unemployment rate is below 4 percent, and labor-market slack is near historic lows. That means construction firms have to move existing workers from private projects to fulfill government-supported projects. There aren’t more workers to hire.

 

***

 

Simply extending all these provisions would add about $5 trillion to the debt over the ten-year budget window, with about $3 trillion of that coming from extending the tax cuts. But it’s even worse than that.

 

The discretionary-spending caps from the debt-limit deal also expire in 2025, and the debt limit will need to be raised again. The government will still need to fund all the normal stuff it always funds, such as the military, anti-poverty programs, education, and transportation. And we haven’t even touched on the biggest budgetary problem of all: entitlements.

 

Politicians have been largely keeping the bipartisan promise to pretend there’s no need for entitlement reform, but the facts haven’t changed. Medicare and Social Security this year will spend $649 billion more than they take in. Cumulatively, over the next 30 years, they’ll spend $69 trillion more than they take in, according to the CBO. That will require more borrowing, which will create $47 trillion in interest costs, bringing the grand total of the cost of Social Security and Medicare to $116 trillion in new debt over the next 30 years.

 

Riedl was sounding the alarm on the danger of higher interest rates when they were still low and spending advocates were saying the government would be stupid not to spend. “Every point that interest rates rise costs about $30 trillion over 30 years in higher interest costs,” Riedl says. “That’s like adding another Defense Department to the budget.”

 

The rate on a ten-year Treasury bond is about 4.4 percent right now. Those CBO projections on interest-rate costs assume that rates will never rise above 4 percent over the next 30 years, Riedl says. Scary as they may seem, they’re based on a very rosy scenario, and the actual picture will likely be much worse.

 

Planning the fiscal future of the country around the assumption that interest rates would remain the lowest they’ve been in 4,000 years, as bond-market researcher Jim Grant has described the interest-rate policies of the 2010s, was not a great idea. Interest on the debt has doubled in just the past two years. “The average maturity on the federal debt is about 70 months, and the vast majority of it will roll over in about a decade,” Riedl says. The low rates of the past were not “locked in.”

 

All this anticipated deficit spending will only increase the upward pressure on interest rates, as investors will demand higher payment for the increased risk of the federal government’s fiscal irresponsibility. And it will make conditions ripe for bursts of inflation, which will spur the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in response.

 

***

 

McBride, of the Tax Foundation, notes that despite the tax cuts and massive deficits, federal tax collections in fiscal year 2022 were higher than ever and are expected to be above average again this year. The federal government collected the equivalent of 20 percent of GDP in 2022, well above the 50-year average of 17 percent. “Even absurd tax increases of several trillion dollars don’t put a dent in the debt-to-GDP ratio in the long run,” McBride says. “The only way to do that is to rein in the spending.”

 

Of all of the TCJA’s tax cuts, it’s the depreciation rules for business investments that deliver the best bang for the buck in economic growth, according to McBride. Lawmakers should prioritize keeping those rules, but the individual-taxpayer provisions will take up much more of their attention, and no president is going to raise taxes on millions of households right after being elected. (It will be fun to watch Democrats, who for years have said falsely that the TCJA cut taxes only for the rich, suddenly talk about how letting the TCJA expire would be a middle-class tax increase.)

 

Congress is going to face pressure from voters, state and local governments, and lobbyists from countless industries to continue spending here, there, and everywhere. “Congress will fight tooth and nail over creating new tax cuts or spending programs, but extending existing programs and tax policies is usually seen as likely to sail through,” Riedl says.

 

Perhaps most stunningly, we still haven’t reached a crisis point. Based on his research of the history of the budget process, Winfree thinks that reforms come only after a major fiscal event. And despite trillions in emergency spending spurring 9 percent inflation and still causing a $2 trillion deficit three years later, the Covid pandemic wasn’t enough to qualify as one.

 

Political pressure for spending reform could rise if inflation remains persistent and voters connect it to the deficit, Winfree says. He also notes that “when the economy has been juiced for so long, there’s going to be a crash coming off of it.” A possible bubble in manufacturing investment, caused by government subsidies, could do some damage.

 

Riedl, in his research, specifies three conditions for major budgetary reforms: a penalty default, public support, and healthy congressional negotiations. But “we’re really not close to meeting those standards.” He says that a successful reform would “have to be done with both sides together holding hands, with tax hikes and spending cuts.”

 

Appetite for such a broad reform package is low, with politicians essentially promising the opposite and voters not demanding any better. We may not be ready for 2025, but it will be here soon. And at our current pace, the mother of all fiscal cliffs will look like small potatoes by 2035, which will look like small potatoes by 2045 . . .

Friday, September 29, 2023

The Left of the Right

By Matthew Continetti

Friday, September 29, 2023

 

If you tuned in to the first Republican Party presidential debate of the 2024 cycle, you may have suffered ideological whiplash. The eight candidates onstage in Milwaukee—minus the far-and-away front-runner, Donald Trump—argued every which way over legal, economic, social, and foreign-policy questions. The party’s ideological and policy incoherence was on full display. Did Mike Pence do the right thing on January 6, 2021? Where should Republicans draw the line on abortion? Does military aid to Ukraine and Israel make America stronger? Is an indicted, and possibly convicted, Trump an electoral asset or a liability? There was no consensus.

 

But there was genuine conflict. Mike Pence and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley jousted over pro-life policy. Haley went after her fellow Palmetto State pol, Senator Tim Scott, on federal spending. Former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson suggested that the 14th Amendment disqualifies Trump. And everybody piled on Vivek Ramaswamy, the 38-year-old businessman who stole the show by flouting conventional opinion, generating controversy, and otherwise behaving like an obnoxious know-it-all.

 

Ramaswamy said the former and current elected officials on stage were “bought and paid for.” He defended his evolving views on the Capitol riot and clashed with Haley over aid to Israel and the stakes in Ukraine. He said the “climate-change agenda” is a hoax and pledged to shut down the FBI. He kept referring to former vice president Pence as “Mike.”

 

Ramaswamy’s glib manner, changing opinions, and utter shamelessness irritated his fellow candidates. But his smugness paid dividends. At this writing, Ramaswamy has moved into third place in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, seven points behind Ron DeSantis and 47 points behind Trump. Ramaswamy is the sort of figure who could exist only in the shadow of the former president: a hyperactive operator cynically using the populist social-media ecosystem to advance his personal brand.

 

Ramaswamy embodies the GOP’s current crisis. Republicans haven’t issued a platform since 2016, and it shows. What the party stands for is no longer central to its identity. Enraptured by Trump, the GOP’s vanguard longs above all for outsiders who promise to rebuke the left, upend the political system, and restore America to lost glory. The details are to be filled in later. In today’s GOP, positive messages and government experience are out; novelty, conspiracy theory, and a sense of foreboding are in. “It is not ‘Morning in America,’” Ramaswamy told Pence. “We live in a dark moment, and we have to confront the fact that we’re in an internal sort of cold cultural civil war.”

 

This vision—America on the precipice in a war that promises to destroy the country and all of Western civilization—has put Ramaswamy at the vanguard of the Republican Party’s newest “New Right.”1 Ramaswamy speaks for those Republicans, many of them young and very online, who believe that the GOP ought to be remade in Trump’s image.

 

In the New Right’s view, Reagan-era Republicans had a few accomplishments between 1980 and 2008 but have had little useful to say in the years since. That is why the New Right network—which includes media and technology personalities such as Tucker Carlson, Elon Musk, and David Sacks, and legacy institutions such as the Heritage Foundation—wants radically to revise the Right’s positions on foreign intervention, free markets, and limited government.

 

The first thing to say about the New Right is that it can get weird. Its ranks are composed almost entirely of men. They inhabit a social-media cocoon where they talk a lot about manhood, and strength, and manliness, and push-ups, and masculinity, and virility, and weight-lifting, and testosterone. “Wrestling should be mandated in middle schools,” write Arthur Milikh and Scott Yenor in the collection Up from Conservatism. “Students could learn to build and shoot guns as part of a normal course of action in schools and learn how to grow crops and prepare them for meals. Every male student could learn to skin an animal and every female to milk a cow.”

 

The second aspect of the New Right that deserves attention is its flirtation with anti-Semitism and racial bigotry. Earlier this year, one of the contributors to Up from Conservatism, the international-relations scholar Richard Hanania, was revealed to have written hateful Internet posts under a pseudonym. The pro-Trump Breitbart reported that Pedro L. Gonzalez, an associate editor at Chronicles: A Magazine of American Culture who boosts DeSantis on his social-media account, had a history of anti-Semitism. Around the same time, DeSantis fired speechwriter Nate Hochman, a New Right wunderkind who had promoted an online video that incorporated neo-Nazi imagery.

 

Most New Right writers shy away from explicit racism and anti-Semitism. Some are more interested in foreign policy, while others focus on economics and trade. All of them, however, share one quality: They sound more like left-wing progressives than actual conservatives.

 

Consider Ramaswamy’s approach to the world. He wants to cut aid to America’s allies, old and new, and spend the money on domestic concerns. The Heritage Foundation made a similar argument in a television spot aired during the GOP debate that disingenuously shows images from the devastation in Lahaina, Hawaii, without mentioning Putin’s war crimes abroad. According to the Washington Free Beacon’s Alana Goodman, Ramaswamy wants to meet with Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks and a left-wing icon. He says he would free Assange and pardon Edward Snowden, the NSA leaker who currently resides in Russia.

 

On Twitter/X, Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts has posted approvingly of former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, an apologist for Vladimir Putin and Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Tucker Carlson has also defended these war criminals. In Tucker: The Biography, the former Fox News star tells author Chadwick Moore that Venezuela’s socialist strongman Nicolás Maduro is a fan of his. Carlson comes across as more amused than appalled.

 

Now it’s true that fissures in American foreign policy cut across partisan lines. There are internationalists and isolationists in both parties. And it’s true that, before World War II, Republicans were known for their opposition to permanent alliances and to involvement in European affairs. But that was almost a century ago. Postwar conservatives have been known for their antagonism toward anti-American tyrants and their sympathy for U.S. international leadership, a strong defense, and military force.

 

Any individual conservative might oppose specific actions—in the Balkans, say, or in Iraq—without contesting American exceptionalism or America’s role as guarantor of international security. Not so the New Right, which seems to long for a repudiation of American power. Trump and Carlson equate U.S. foreign policy with Putin’s. Trump has said the greatest threat to America isn’t China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, nuclear proliferation, or global terrorism, but our very own “deep state.” The Heritage ad suggesting we are more concerned with Kyiv than Lahaina smacked of leftist Democrat George McGovern’s “Come home, America” slogan in 1972.

 

One’s attitude toward American foreign policy tends to reflect one’s view of America’s national condition. If you think America is a good and noble country, you are more likely to support international engagement. Conversely, if you think America is a clumsy or malevolent actor on the world stage, you are more likely to think there is something wrong with your countrymen. The New Right’s negative stance toward foreign intervention is in line with its apocalyptic view of the United States.

 

Hillsdale College’s Michael Anton, whose then-pseudonymous “Flight 93 Election” essay from 2016 was a New Right manifesto, has nary a kind word to say about his native land. “American carnage” doesn’t begin to describe his take. Everything is rotten, failed, disgusting. “The people are corrupt,” Anton writes in Up from Conservatism, in a passage that recalls the “Amerika” literature of the Vietnam-era left.

 

Also like the New Left, the New Right casts a critical eye on our ideals and values—the wellsprings of American activity abroad. Claremont Institute fellow Carson Holloway writes in Up from Conservatism that “propositional-nation conservatism,” inspired by Abraham Lincoln’s adherence to the equality clause of the Declaration of Independence, is “a source of political failure for the Right—indeed, of the kind of failures that threaten the security of our civilization.”

 

The Claremont Institute where Holloway hangs his hat was established to promote the teachings of Professor Harry Jaffa, who believed that the equality clause—“we hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness”—was the most significant piece of writing since the Christian New Testament and that Lincoln was the greatest statesman in world history. Jaffa is not mentioned in Holloway’s essay or elsewhere in Up from Conservatism. But his nemesis, the author and presidential candidate Pat Buchanan, is cited approvingly several times.

 

This culture-war faction of the New Right is interested in restraining America abroad, restricting immigration, criticizing the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and casting out the last vestiges of the Republican “establishment.” It’s eager to crack down on publicly funded universities, woke corporations, and Big Tech platforms.

 

But the culture-war faction has company. There is another group of New Right thinkers affiliated with the journal American Affairs and the think tank American Compass. These institutions are part of an effort to move the GOP toward greater state intervention in the economy. Readers of American Affairs will find paeans to the Chinese authoritarian model, discussions of industrial policy, and jeremiads against Wall Street. Socialists and postmodernists such as the German Marxist Wolfgang Streeck and the Slovenian charlatan Slavoj Zizek mingle with up-and-coming Trumpist thinkers. The publication has the feel of left-wing theoretical journals from the 20th century—dreary, turgid, and gray. It might be more influential if it weren’t so recondite.

 

American Compass is livelier. Its leader, the feisty Oren Cass, went from Bain & Company, Harvard Law, and Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign to become the tribune of the working man. In his 2018 book, The Once and Future Worker, and more recently in the glossy publication Rebuilding American Capitalism: A Handbook for Conservative Policymakers, Cass urges conservatives to privilege politics over economics and pursue policies that, if all goes according to plan, will materially benefit the non-college-educated voters who have come to be the base of the GOP.

 

The emphasis that Cass puts on the value of work is laudable. Some of his proposals, such as opening non-college pathways to career development and lessening America’s dependence on China, are attractive. Others deserve close scrutiny. Put simply, why would voters worried about inflation react favorably to an economic nationalism that raises prices by increasing tariffs? Rebuilding American Capitalism calls for the elimination of the trade deficit but has little to say about the budget deficit. It would be a tragedy, for the working class most of all, if the GOP decides that the only stuff it wants to import are bad ideas from Europe and Asia.

 

Of the New Right groups, American Compass probably has the most pull inside the Beltway. It is not hard to see why. Cass offers a ready-made diagnosis of troubled communities, as well as a helpful menu of policy options, for ambitious Republicans eager to placate and someday inherit Donald Trump’s non-college-educated constituency. Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio is champing at the bit to claim Trump’s throne by harking back to the 1980s—combining Dick Gephardt’s industrial labor policy with Tom Harkin’s dovish foreign policy.

 

Gephardt and Harkin were Midwestern Democrats, of course, both of whom ran for president in 1988. And the more closely one looks at the epigones of the New Right, the more they begin to resemble the left-wingers of that time: anti-institutional, hostile to expert opinion, skeptical of America abroad, and dirigiste at home. Little separates Vance—other than his Yale Law degree and fortune from venture capitalism—from Vietnam War hero and former Virginia senator Jim Webb, whose opposition to the 2003 Iraq War and concern with rising income inequality prompted him to leave the GOP and become a Democrat. Under the aegis of Trump, the tendency that Webb represented and the people he spoke for are finding their home in the GOP…minus the trappings of conservatism.

 

The former Commentary writer Sohrab Ahmari is a leading indicator of the New Right’s ultimate destination. Having helped launch the New Right with his 2019 attack on the conservative writer David French for failing to fight the culture war furiously enough, Ahmari went on to co-found Compact, a “radical online journal.” Lately he has said less about his conservative Catholicism and more about his radical politics. His latest book, Tyranny Inc., begins with a false equivalence between specific working conditions in America and general political conditions in China, Russia, and Iran.

 

Like progressive writers Barbara Ehrenreich and Thomas Frank, Ahmari alternates between human-interest reporting and denunciations of corporate greed. His arguments all run in the same direction: “The general tendency of Tyranny, Inc.,” Ahmari writes, “is the domination of working- and middle-class people by the owners of capital, the asset-less by the asset rich.” In his memoir From Fire, by Water, published when he was 34, Ahmari described his college-age Marxism. He’s relapsed.

 

Ahmari doesn’t go for subtlety. In his capable prose, the New Deal is without fault, and the liberal economics writer and Harvard professor John Kenneth Galbraith is a forgotten genius. What America needs is workers’ rights and Galbraith’s concept of “countervailing power,” with labor organizations and government regulators constraining business. Conservatives, Ahmari says, are beholden to the mistaken notions of the 16th president. “Lincoln’s quaint view of industry,” Ahmari writes, “blinded him to the injustices inherent in his free-labor ideal.”

 

Take that, Abe!

 

Unsurprisingly, Ahmari has found an audience among the writers and editors of the New York Times, who have taken to tracking the minutiae of his career with an intensity they normally reserve for Beyoncé. A recent piece for the Times quotes Oren Cass saying that Tyranny, Inc. “bravely goes where few conservatives dare tread, to the ideologically fraught realm in which the market appears inherently coercive and capitalism appears in tension with economic freedom.” Perhaps one reason conservatives have not trod upon this ideologically fraught realm, where markets are coercive and freedom is just oppression under a different guise, is that it is the preserve of the left.

 

Confusing, isn’t it, when movements lose their bearings. Freedom becomes tyranny, constitutionalism and the rule of law become passé, and America becomes the source of, not the solution to, the world’s ills. Today’s GOP, like the candidates on the debate stage, can’t make up its mind, creating the space for opportunists like Vivek Ramaswamy to flourish.

 

We can expect the tics and eruptions of the New Right to spread if the Trump era endures. The clique is busy preparing for a second Trump term, or perhaps J.D. Vance’s or Josh Hawley’s first one. Its ambition is as far-reaching as its rhetoric. “Ruling requires taking responsibility for the good of your people and defending them against their enemies,” Arthur Milikh writes in the introduction to Up from Conservatism. “Ruling in this sense is inspiring, invigorating, and beautiful to behold. The New Right must become the party of beauty, vitality, strength, truth, high purpose, and fierceness.”

 

Good luck with that. It’s up to the rest of us to expose the New Right for what it truly is: ugly, pessimistic, base, weak toward America’s enemies, and, like its progressive twin, corrosive of the American tradition of liberty.

 

1 The term “New Right” was famously applied to the young conservatives who became a leading force in the GOP after the candidacy of Barry Goldwater in 1964. They highlighted social issues in particular and dedicated themselves to grassroots organizing and fundraising.