The Trump Precedent

By Noah Rothman

Monday, June 23, 2025

 

It is prudent to acknowledge that this is a dangerous geopolitical moment. Today, Israel is pummeling Iran’s regime targets — laying waste to the hated symbols of terror like the Basij police and the gates of the notorious Evin prison. It continues to degrade Iran’s nuclear program, which, following U.S. strikes, is likely to have been seriously impaired. The Iranian regime will seek ways to strike back and save face without triggering an existential conflict with America. But calibrating that kind of response is a tricky game, and the risk of lashing out in ways that compel the U.S. to respond is high. The world, right now, is on a knife’s edge.

 

Plenty of observers cannot, however, see through to a future in which Donald Trump’s attack on Iran’s nuclear program makes the world a safer place. Johns Hopkins University professor Vali Nasr, for example, defaulted to a popular pessimism:

It is possible that the “object lesson” Trump’s strikes will convey to the world’s aspiring nuclear powers is that they must achieve a nuclear breakout as fast as possible. That’s much easier said than done; nuclear weapons programs are hard to hide, consume vast state resources, and involve a level of technical expertise that already serves as a high barrier to entry. The world’s roguish states might also look on the Iranian experience and conclude that it did everything right, just too slowly. It’s just not especially likely.

 

The precedent that Trump has set could be far more salutary. With Operation Midnight Hammer, Trump has corrected the error the West made when it allowed North Korea to develop a nuclear weapons arsenal under its nose. The United States has communicated as clearly as possible that the nuclear non-proliferation regime has teeth.

 

The message Trump has sent is plain: Sure, your illicit nuclear program will get you a lot of attention. There will be back-channel talks and summits, and you might extort some aid or even sanctions relief from us. But at the end of the day, you’re not getting that weapon, and your pursuit of it will cost you more than you’re willing to pay.

 

It’s just as reasonable to conclude that the world’s malefactors will look on Iran’s experience and determine that the course it took was a foolish one. Twenty years and $500 billion later, what does Iran have to show for the nuclear weapon program that was supposed to ensure the regime’s stability? Its enrichment facilities are in ruins, its economy is battered, its military is in a shambles, and the symbols of regime power are falling like dominoes.

 

Yes, a revisionist power tempted by the allure of nuclear weapons may rationalize itself into the belief that it could improve on the path Iran took toward a bomb, but that would be pretty illogical. It’s just as likely those regimes will conclude that the bomb isn’t worth the trouble. Indeed, that’s easier to envision.

 

Trump has now established a doctrine that could prove quite enduring. The United States will not tolerate nuclear proliferation. So long as it retains the capacity to act against it, America will never allow your atomic weapons program to achieve fruition. Best not to even make the attempt. That is a sound, narrow, and achievable credo, and Trump deserves kudos for crafting it. It’s hard to see it now, as the bombs are still falling on Iranian targets, but it is a doctrine that is likely to make the world a safer place for the United States and its allies.