Did Iran Just Blink?

By Noah Rothman

Monday, June 23, 2025

 

So far, Iran’s retaliatory response to U.S. strikes on its nuclear program looks a lot like its reaction to the 2020 attack that killed Iran Revolutionary Guards Commander Qasem Soleimani — which is to say that it seems like Tehran is seeking an offramp to avoid a potentially existential conflict with the United States.

 

On Monday, Iranian state media released a high-production-value video revealing its intention to strike U.S. forces inside neighboring Qatar. A bombastic statement from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council accompanying the video claimed that Iran had launched a salvo of ten missiles at the U.S.-manned Al Udeid Air Base, which “pulverized” American forces. In reality, the missiles seem to have all been intercepted before they reached their targets. No casualties have been reported.

 

In response to the attack, the once pliant government in Qatar issued a statement condemning Iran’s attack on its territory and reserving for itself the “right” to retaliate. The Qatari reaction is mostly for show. “Three Iranian officials familiar with the plans said that Iran gave advanced notice that attacks were coming, as a way to minimize casualties,” the New York Times reported

 

According to one popular source of open-source intelligence analysis, Iran’s statement ahead of this strike suggests “that this will be the only military action by Iran against the United States.” If so, Iran has telegraphed a willingness to de-escalate this conflict. It has been presented with a binary choice between regime survival and nuclearization, and it seems to be leaning toward survival.

 

Now, it’s important to note that this is only a face-saving climb-down if that’s how we want to interpret it. The only reason why we remember the Iranian operation aimed at avenging Soleimani’s death as a cease-fire overture is because we decided to take it that way. We didn’t have to do that. One hundred and ten U.S. service personnel were treated for injuries as a result of that direct and unprecedented ballistic missile attack on U.S. forces in Iraq. Some of the wounded service personnel received Purple Hearts following that event. The U.S. could have regarded that strike as an unacceptable precedent, but the Trump administration had made its point. By simply deeming deterrence to have been restored, the U.S. helped bring that condition about.

 

This attack on Qatar, too, is a brazen act of war that expands the terms of engagement in ways we might typically find unacceptable. But, pending a more comprehensive assessment of the damage at the nuclear sites Trump struck over the weekend, we’ve made our point. Indeed, the Israelis continue to underscore it today with strikes on the sources of regime stability inside Iran. The mullahs have lost this confrontation with the regime’s enemies. All that’s left for them to do is recognize it.

 

Update: Trump confirmed that Iran provided both Qatar and the United States with advanced notice that it was preparing to attack the Al Udeid Air Base. The president appears to regard Iran’s “very weak response” to this weekend’s airstrikes as an overture, and he’s inclined to pursue it. “Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the region,” Trump wrote, “and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same.”

 

Hopefully, the president’s encouragement will come only after the Iranian nuclear program has been degraded to everyone’s satisfaction, and not just because the mullahs are suing for peace. Trump’s remarks do, however, suggest that the regime appreciates its precarious position.