By John Gustavsson
Tuesday, June 23, 2026
On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the
European Union. A shell-shocked David Cameron announced his resignation as
prime minister the following morning. Today, ten years later, the mood in
Britain is pessimistic, and more and more policymakers now voice support for rejoining. Even with the current
political turmoil over Keir Starmer’s exit, on this anniversary, I would like
to make two bold claims: Brexit has paid off — and Britain will never rejoin
the EU.
At its core, Brexit gave Britain back sovereignty that it
had ceded to Brussels. But ten years on, what neither supporters nor opponents
of Brexit care to admit is how little Brexit has really changed. Britain has
not become the “Singapore-On-Thames,” and the sunlit uplands promised by Brexit
proponents turned out to be cloudy.
At the same time, trade with both the EU and the rest of
the world is tugging along just
fine, very much contrary to predictions at the time. Britain was never
forced to go to the “back of the queue” as Barack Obama famously threatened;
trade deals were instead rolled over smoothly with all but three countries with
which the EU had previous agreements. There have also been new trade deals, but the overall makeup of destination
countries of British exports and imports have barely budged. British growth is
slow, but no slower than other major European economies.
But while there are a great number of examples of how
Britain could and should have made better use of its new
sovereignty, this should not deflect from the very real gains.
The first such gain took place during the Covid pandemic.
Britain’s vaccine rollout was the envy of the world, with Brits getting shots while the EU
was still bickering internally on how to distribute the limited supply of
vaccines fairly between the member states. Even EU-friendly voices conceded
that Brexit had given Britain a degree of flexibility no member state
had. Had Britain been part of the EU, thousands more Brits would have surely
died.
While London remains enthralled by environmentalism to
much the same degree as Brussels, Brexit enabled reform of agricultural
subsidies. Whereas the Common Agricultural Policy of the EU pays farmers based
not chiefly on outcomes but on land ownership, Britain’s replacement has a stronger
emphasis on outcomes, and it also has the state take on a greater share of the
costs of the climate transition.
One of the greatest Brexit benefits is only now beginning
to be realized: Thanks to Brexit, Britain is free to pursue its own AI
strategy. While Britain shares the EU’s tendency to indulge in overregulation
of AI, London has wisely refused to follow Brussels’s lead. While EU leaders
are bragging about implementing the first AI regulatory framework, Britain is moving more cautiously, rejecting the EU’s top-down,
preemptive regulation approach for a more business-friendly direction with real
input from the private sector and legislation on a case-by-case basis.
Britain is also taking an explicitly pro-development
position on data centers, which have been designated as critical
national infrastructure. Criticism of data centers, so
prevalent both in the U.S. and the EU, has been effectively shut down in
Britain. While high energy prices will stifle AI’s potential in Britain, its
relatively lighter regulatory touch at least gives the industry a fighting
chance.
This is not limited to AI, but also true for the service
sector more broadly: While trade in goods has fallen since Brexit,
this has been compensated for by a boom
in services. This is particularly true in the realm of financial services;
despite warnings to the contrary, London remains the undisputed seat of
European banking and finance post-Brexit.
Yet overall, Brexit has most certainly fallen short of
voters’ expectations (not least on immigration). But does that mean Britain is
destined to rejoin? Not at all. Britain is staying out.
This is not mainly because doing so would mean losing the
above-mentioned Brexit benefits. Rather, it is because on Brexit, there is
truly no going back: As an EU member, Britain enjoyed exceptionally favorable
membership terms, including a substantial rebate on its annual
membership fee courtesy of Margaret Thatcher. Britain also had opt-outs on
matters including the border checkpoint–free Schengen area and the euro.
Polling has for years indicated that at least a strong
plurality of British voters would like to rejoin. A poll from earlier this
month showed 55 percent support for rejoining. Yet when asked whether they would
support rejoining the EU if it meant accepting the same membership terms as
other countries, that same poll indicated only 35 percent of Brits would
rejoin.
Is there then no chance that the EU could offer the same
terms, to once again enjoy the pleasure of Britain’s company? Definitely not.
It is an open secret in Brussels that Britain is not exactly missed. Brexit
created a power vacuum that was quickly filled by the other major European
countries, and while they would not stop Britain from rejoining on equal terms,
they would not bend over backward since British reentry would mean them losing
political influence. This is also the view held by the public across the
largest EU countries — France, Germany, Italy, and Spain — where a poll last
year indicated only a third of voters would support
letting Britain back in with the opt-outs it enjoyed (and the poll didn’t even
ask about the rebate!).
During its almost half a century as a member, Britain was
a persistent thorn in the side of Eurofederalists, frequently joining with
smaller countries like the Nordics to block or slow political centralization.
With the British gone, the French and Germans are able to run the show in a way
they never could before.
The final reason why rejoining is a nonstarter is
practical: Brexit was a messy process that took down two prime ministers.
Rejoining would be at least as messy. Whoever would be prime minister at the
time would not be asked about anything else, and no matter what he or she
wanted to talk about, journalists would bring the discussion back to the
reentry process: How are negotiations going? Are we getting any opt-outs? How
are we going to convince this or that country to let us back in (like NATO, the
EU requires unanimity to admit new members)?
Theresa May, who succeeded David Cameron, is today only
remembered for her ultimately unsuccessful negotiations concerning Britain’s
withdrawal from the EU after the Brexit vote. She accomplished little else as
PM due to Brexit occupying everyone’s attention and the situation demanding her
to spend all her political capital on passing an exit deal (in vain, as it
would turn out — a revised deal was finally agreed to under her successor,
Boris Johnson). Even pro-European British policymakers will look at what she
went through and shudder at the thought of the same thing happening to them.
On the ten-year anniversary of the Brexit vote, many
Brits may be tempted to look back at Brussels with the wistful glance of Lot’s
wife. Yet, a decade after taking back control, Brits should also remember what
they’ve gained: Unlike ten years ago, the buck now stops only at 10 Downing
Street. While Britain has a lot of work to do, it has no reason to regret
reclaiming its independence.
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