By Elliott Abrams
Sunday, June 14, 2026
Many aspects of the Iran deal announced on Sunday are
unclear, or nonexistent: They will have to be negotiated over the next 60 days.
What exactly will happen to the highly enriched uranium in Iran? Is its missile
program covered? Will it be allowed to charge tolls in the Strait of Hormuz if
it calls them service fees or otherwise hides them? Must it stop arming and
financing Hezbollah and Hamas?
But one key aspect is now crystal clear: The American
agreement with Iran completely abandons the Iranian people.
In December and January, Iranians took to the streets
again in huge numbers, as they had in 2009 and 2014. In 200 cities, there were
significant protests, and they were not limited to university students; in
fact, they started with bazaaris — business people. This was a major
challenge to the regime. It responded with mass murder, shooting unarmed
demonstrators and killing somewhere between 7,000 and 35,000.
In response, President Trump posted on Truth Social, “Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING
– TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers.
They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials
until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY. MIGA!!!”
But the deal that the United States has now entered with
Iran abandons that position and the Iranian people. Last Saturday, Trump again took to Truth Social: “Our relationship with Iran is a much
different and better one than previous administrations have had . . . . We look
forward to working with Iran, and the entire Middle East, long into the
future.” On Sunday, in an interview announcing the deal with the regime, Trump
said, “As far as regime change, I never cared about regime change. This is the
third group we’ve dealt with, and this is the most rational group yet.”
So much for “help is on the way.” This looks instead like
the “Venezuela option”: The regime stays in power and is strengthened by the
lifting of sanctions and the arrival of new income flows from oil exports. At
least in the Venezuelan case, official U.S. policy (reiterated recently in
Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s testimony to Congress) calls for a transition to democracy
as its final phase — however long-delayed that may be. In the Iran case, U.S.
officials never use the word “democracy.” When the president said “I never
cared about regime change,” he was being completely honest.
This is a strategic error of the greatest importance.
It’s obvious to Iranians, and should be to us, that the Islamic Republic is
unreformable. Despite Trump’s repeated statements that some new “group” of
Iranian officials are more “rational,” Iran’s rulers are the people who
murdered thousands of their fellow citizens in cold blood a few months ago and
more recently struck at economic and civilian targets of all their Gulf Arab
neighbors as well as Israel. There is zero evidence that the brutal repression of
the Iranian people will cease.
Ignoring that is a strategic error because the only
long-run solution to Iran’s aggression and repression is in fact popular
sovereignty. The Trump administration argues that its new agreement will change
the Middle East, but it will not — because the Islamic Republic will always
remain at the heart of the region’s violence and instability. It is folly to
think this regime will stop intervening in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, and elsewhere.
Its ruling elites — who are the same now as they were in January — have shown
again and again that “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” are central
pillars of their belief system.
But the United States, Iran’s neighbors, and Israel have
one great ally against the Islamic Republic’s policies: the Iranian people.
Their hatred of and opposition to the regime have been demonstrated for decades
despite the heavy price they have paid in blood and ruined lives. When the
people of Iran can govern themselves, the United States and Iran can be friends
and partners.
That is what makes President Trump’s line that he “never
cared about regime change” so offensive. Compare it with Ronald Reagan’s policy
toward the Soviet Union, which never promised to overthrow the regime, but made
common cause with those in Russia and the Soviet empire struggling for freedom,
offering them moral and political support (“Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this
wall”) as well as help for organizations like Solidarity and Andrei Sakharov’s
Committee on Human Rights in the USSR. To acknowledge our limited ability to
help Iranians achieve democracy is one thing; to dismiss their aspirations
disdainfully is another, and it is both strategically blind and morally
repugnant.
We are but weeks away from celebrating our own revolution
to gain popular rule. The least the United States should be doing now is
letting Iranians know we understand and support their struggle for basic human
rights and for democracy.
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