By Charles C. W. Cooke
Thursday, September 10 ,2026
Painfully aware that, once the midterms are over, he
risks being gradually consigned to irrelevance, President Trump has hit once
again upon a Hail Mary plan for political success. That plan is bribery. Last
night, after vocally condemning the rise of socialism in the United States,
Trump pledged some of his own. “If the Republicans win,” he told a crowd in
Dallas, “I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of
America for $5,000.”
No, no, no, no, no.
Did I mention “no”?
The Democrats who have condemned this idea are, of
course, ridiculous, for in trying to trade votes for cash, Trump is merely
adopting their approach without the middlemen or the euphemisms. But that is
not a defense of the move — which is, in every sense possible,
catastrophic.
Let us start with the obvious moral problem that the
money in question does not belong to those to whom Trump is promising it.
Explaining his idea, the president described it as a “dividend.” But, of
course, it is no such thing. A dividend is money a company pays to its
shareholders, usually from its profits. The United States is not a company; the
voters are not its shareholders; and, to put it lightly, there are no profits
to be shared. There is no reason whatsoever that each adult in America should be
sent money from the federal government; there is no reason that, if it is to be
sent, that money should be equally allocated; and there is no reason to
condition such a payout upon the Republicans winning the midterms. This isn’t
tax policy or fiscal policy; it is a reckless, shapeless, irritable spasm,
divorced from the nature and purpose of our government and from the
Constitution that created it.
Practically, the idea is deeply irresponsible. “Dividend”
would remain the wrong word if the United States had no debt, a budget surplus,
and 5 percent annual growth. But now? We are $40 trillion in debt. This year’s
federal budget deficit will exceed $2 trillion. Sending $5,000 checks to every
adult would cost around $1.3 trillion — more than the entire federal
discretionary budget for 2026, and equivalent to about ten years of
revenues from the tariffs that Trump’s feckless vice president insists will pay for this latest foray. Last year’s tax bill corrupted
the sensible reforms of 2017 by adding a patchwork of irrational exemptions and
special treatments: deductions for people who live in fiscally profligate
states; preferences for workers who earn some of their income from tips; an
expansion of the entitlements that are bankrupting us; and more. Trump’s
checks-for-everyone gambit would corrupt our already corrupted budget in a
similar — and considerably more consequential — manner.
Politically, the act would confirm for all time that the
second Trump administration has been a failure. Trump was returned to office
because a majority of voters believed that he could get inflation under control
and thereby lower prices. Instead, Trump has publicly called for aggressive
interest-rate cuts and imposed tariffs on all sectors of the economy. Adding
another $1.3 trillion in stimulus would without doubt make the status quo
worse. The populists are fond of insisting that the choice is between them and
the socialists. This morning, that contention seems preposterous. Leaving to
one side that the deliberate stoking of inflation by a president who defines
himself as an anti-socialist is likely to lead to a thermostatic increase in
the socialists’ support, one must ask the obvious question: If this is
populism, what need is there of socialism at all?
Pundits and partisans routinely suggest that Donald
Trump’s great electoral insight was to recognize that the public does not like
being asked to eat its vegetables and that it does not want to be reminded of
the dire fiscal situation that now stares it in the face. Analytically, this
may be true. But “is” and “ought” are often irreconcilable, and, irrespective
of their desires, the voters will not be able to outrun mathematics forever.
Now, as ever, the old maxims are true. The purpose of government is to secure
liberty and to tax and spend only in the realms in which it has been empowered.
A society that permits its government to extort it will be a society without
virtue. And, as Dickens’s Mr. Micawber famously observed, debt always leads to
disaster in the end. “Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen
and six, result happiness,” Micawber tells David Copperfield. “Annual income
twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty-pound ought and six, result misery.”
That applies in America in 2026, too — on both sides of the ledger.
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