By John Fund
Sunday, September 20, 2026
The Golden State is trying to impoverish itself. This
November, Californians will be voting on Proposition 40, which would impose a
(supposedly) one-time 5 percent wealth tax on any resident whose net worth
exceeds $1 billion.
Rarely have a ballot proposal’s shortcomings been so
visible. At least six billionaires left the state before the end of 2025 to
avoid the tax, which would apply to anyone who has lived in California at any
time after January 1, 2026. These are Sergey Brin and Larry Page, co-founders
of Google; Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal and Palantir; famed Hollywood
director Steven Spielberg; Don Hankey of the Hankey Group; and Craft Ventures
founder David Sacks. A study by economists at the Hoover Institution found that
these six tax refugees alone have already removed “$536 billion, or nearly 30
percent of aggregate billionaire wealth, from the tax base.” And because these
individuals will no longer pay any income tax in California, the wealth tax is
expected to lose almost $25 billion in net revenue in present value
terms.
There are roughly 200 billionaires in California. Many of
them believe that, if Proposition 40 passes, the retroactive application of its
5 percent levy will be struck down as unconstitutional. It’s likely, however,
that many more will head for the exit to avoid any of its future implications.
The latest poll on the proposition was conducted between September 4 and 10 by
the Public Policy Institute of California. Disturbingly, it found that
Proposition 40 enjoys majority support, with 52
percent of respondents in favor. There is a precedent for it. A measure
that added a 1 percent surcharge on taxable income over $1 million was passed
in 2004, and two measures subsequently raised rates on high-income earners.
And yet, Proposition 40 is such an awful idea that even
many of the state’s leading Democrats — including Governor Gavin Newsom —
oppose it, as do some reliably leftist labor unions such as the California
Teachers Association. Sponsoring the measure, however, is SEIU United
Healthcare Workers West, whose leader, Dave Regan, one of the masterminds
behind the proposal, might have been using thuggish tactics to build support
for it. SEIU International authorized independent investigations into
allegations of extortion against Regan. According to the San Francisco
Chronicle, Regan is alleged to have “violated the SEIU Constitution by
threatening and defaming certain union leaders as part of his campaign to
secure endorsements for the Billionaire Tax.”
Joel Pollak, the opinion editor of the California Post,
says, “Regan has been using Proposition 40 as his power
play among the union elites. But even the unions have had enough. Union leaders
don’t like being bossed around by Dave Regan any more than business owners or
health clinics do.”
The vote this November will have profound consequences.
It may just decide whether California can still be viewed as a desirable place
to do business and accumulate assets. It will also send a clear signal about
whether the state is under the thrall of thuggish special interest groups such
as Regan’s union. If that’s the case, it won’t be just billionaires fleeing. It
might also accelerate the departure of the state’s middle class.
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