By Nick Catoggio
Tuesday, September 08, 2026
I’m an overthinker, and I’m mindful of my tendency to
overthink. Which sometimes leads me to overthink whether I’m overthinking.
Case in point: How much thought should I devote to
Facebook slop reposted by an 80-year-old man idly scrolling on his phone,
possibly while sitting on the toilet?
I worry that I’m overthinking things in pondering the
meaning of not one, not two, but three separate images published by the president Sunday of
himself flanked by killer robots over captions like “GIVE THEM NIGHTMARES” and
“THEY WILL NEVER SLEEP AGAIN.”
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar; sometimes a fantasy
about leading an army of Terminators to crush your enemies is just a fantasy
about leading an army of Terminators to crush your enemies. I’m probably
overthinking it.
But I might be overthinking whether I’m overthinking it.
If the most powerful man in the world’s ability to remember the words “person, woman, man, camera, TV” tells us something
important about his mental state, so should his eagerness to imagine himself as
the villain in a dystopian sci-fi film, no?
Why, next thing you know, he’ll want to dress up the U.S. military to look like the imperial officers
in Star Wars—with the Nazi aesthetic dialed up a notch or two.
There’s no way to grasp the breadth of Donald Trump’s
manic posting binge this weekend without scrolling
through it yourself, although this
(incomplete) list with timestamps will give you a taste. Amid the usual
indecorous trolling of Democratic predecessors, there were numerous fantasies—a visit to the
Oval Office from George Washington, an image of Trump in hockey gear
looming over Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney after knocking him down, and robots, robots, robots. The official
White House account got in on the act too, posting an elaborate video that cast
the president as the Green Lantern.
The recurring theme, though, was territorial conquest.
One image uploaded by the president declared the Strait of Hormuz to be a U.S. possession; another redrew the map of Iran to resemble his facial profile. Then he pivoted to the Western
Hemisphere, posting several times about changing the name of New Mexico to (what else?) “New America” before zooming out and publishing a map in
which all of North America, from Greenland to Mexico and Canada to the
Caribbean, had become part of the United States.
Not content with that acquisition, he eventually zoomed
out and off Earth entirely with a photo of the lunar surface alongside an
American flag captioned “The Moon Is Ours.” That one was my favorite: Rarely have
the three hallmarks of Trumpian nationalism—greed, grandiosity, and nostalgia—been
synthesized so efficiently.
Many of the president’s critics are howling today about invoking the 25th Amendment, as if his Truth
Social diarrhea reflects a deficit of sanity, not dignity. I’m uninterested in
that, and not just because (as those critics often forget) the procedural
hurdles for removing the president under that amendment are actually higher
than they are for impeachment.
What interests me about his posting binge is the same
thing that interested the authors of today’s
new Dispatch editorial—namely, that the post-Trump era is
approaching. It’s a clue as to whether the president will spend the last two
years of his term on populism or on slopulism.
‘Postliberal UBI.’
Eric Hoffer wrote that “Every great cause begins as a
movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.”
For conservatism, that progression roughly tracks with
the Reagan revolution, then the emergence of conservative talk radio, and
ultimately the ascension of Fox News and online media as loyal partisan
megaphones for whatever message the Republican Party needed amplified on a
given day.
Trumpism is unusual in that I’m not sure that it ever had
a “business” stage. It began as a movement against right-wing interventionism
and corporatist support for soft borders. But because it’s led by a born
racketeer who craves blind loyalty, it decayed straightaway into a racket in
which its leader’s momentary preferences define its orthodoxy, its
media heroes defame
others wantonly to serve him, and its henchmen steal everything that isn’t nailed down.
It’s the dry ice of political causes. There was no
intermediate phase between its original solid state and its dissolution into a
gassy amoral racket.
Once Trump is gone, nationalist ideologues will need to
somehow reverse-engineer that gas into something politically solid. Which
explains last week’s introduction of what economic historian Phil Magness
derisively calls “postliberal
UBI.”
“UBI” stands for “universal basic income,” a
welfare-for-all concept in which the federal government pays every American
household a fixed amount each month. (For what I hope are obvious reasons, it’s
an idea associated with the far left.) “Postliberal UBI,” as Magness calls it,
wouldn’t go nearly that far—but it would go quite far, redirecting funds from a
Health and Human Services Department program designed to subsidize childcare
for working parents toward families where one parent has chosen to care for the
children full time in lieu of working.
Under the scheme, in other words, the government would be
“paying parents to stay home,” as the New York Times put it in a piece published on Friday
about a new draft rule to change the policy. Viewed charitably, it’s an
Orbánist attempt to goose falling birth rates by incentivizing women to have
more children. Viewed less charitably, it’s a bribe to career-minded women to
quit working, get married, and be the sort of “trad wives” that postliberals
are sure they long to be. Hence, “postliberal UBI.”
Needless to say, with the national debt at $40 trillion
and interest rates rising, it’s glassy-eyed bonkers for Republicans to want to
further normalize the entitlement state by extending its benefits from the
lower class to the middle class. And it’s—probably—a sucker’s game for the
right in the long run: As a young conservative, I was always told that
Republicans could never successfully “outbid” Democrats, an overtly statist
party, in bribing voters with taxpayer money. Better to challenge the propriety
of such things than concede the left’s premise that the state exists to
redistribute wealth.
But I haven’t been a young conservative for a long time.
The right-wing zeitgeist under nationalism today, as former Mitt Romney aide Kevin
Madden put it, has moved “away from criticism of an expanding state and
towards the question/contest of who should benefit from its largesse.” That’s
postliberalism in a nutshell: Government is a repository of immense power and
that power should be wielded aggressively to shape society, chiefly by
benefiting friends and harming enemies. In a movement that takes that view,
maybe the right can outbid the left.
There are obvious questions to be asked about the new
policy—for instance, won’t lower-class working women have fewer children once
their childcare subsidies disappear? But, to paraphrase Walter Sobchak: Say
what you want about the tenets of right-wing
socialism, at least it’s an ethos. Given its potential electoral benefits, “postliberal UBI” is
precisely the sort of gas-into-solid nationalist policy that J.D. Vance and his
Orbánist allies should logically be championing as the Trump era winds down.
Without the president’s charisma to run on in 2028, they have little choice but
to start getting serious (or “serious”) about populist policies.
The problem is that, to all appearances, Trump himself
seems to have near-zero interest in those policies.
Slopulism triumphant.
That’s the real significance of his killer-robots posting
spree, I think.
With a transformative new welfare program all teed up to
dazzle middle-class women before the midterms, the president instead used his
megaphone this weekend pushing moronic fantasies about annexing Canada and
Mexico. (Which reminds me: Does he realize which way most Canadian and Mexican
voters lean politically?) I’ve written before about the degree to which he’s betrayed
his populist agenda, but watching him bury the news about “postliberal UBI”
makes me wonder if he intends to put any muscle behind helping Vance
build a populist platform over the final two years of his term.
I don’t think he does. He’s scoffed
at making housing reform a priority, launched an expensive new trade war on
Canada for reasons no one understands, and has resumed browbeating
the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates when it’s trying to manage
inflation. (Actual quote: “When our country is strong, interest rates
should go down. When our country is weak, frankly they should go up.”) More
than once over the last year, he’s babbled about “affordability” being a “fake word”
made up by Democrats as part of a political “hoax.”
Last week he took the most unifying populist issue in
America and somehow placed himself on the wrong side of it. “The only reason
that communities throughout the U.S.A. should not want Data Centers is if they
want to end up being backwards and poor,” he warned on Truth Social. “If they want to be successful and rich, with
far lower taxes and jobs all over the place, let Data Reign.”
A checked-out Trump isn’t going to spend the rest of his
term rebooting right-wing economic populism, particularly if he ends up with a
Democratic Congress keen to infuse any legislation with its own economic
priorities. In all probability, he’s going to spend those years on
“slopulism”—circulating, and occasionally acting on, trollish dominance
fantasies about humiliating his enemies and creating a personal legacy that
can’t be expunged once he’s gone.
And the clearer it becomes that most Americans want to
expunge that legacy, I suspect, the more energy he’ll devote to trying to make
doing so impossible before he goes.
That’s also my theory for his obsession with building
monuments and restoring landmarks. “Perhaps the president’s recent binge of
architectural grandeur betrays his awareness that he, and America, are in
decline,” I wrote
in February, after his approval had sunk below 42 percent. Trump all but confirmed
it in a recent interview with New York magazine when he was told that Sen. Jon
Ossoff believes he’s building tributes to himself because no one will honor him
once he’s gone. “That’s true,” he replied. “Nobody will do it once I’m gone.
When I leave here, nobody will.”
Seven months and one damaging war since my February piece
was published, his approval is now approaching 37 percent. If delusions of
grandeur are the president’s response to declining popularity and a poisoned
legacy, it makes sense that his response would escalate from things like
ballrooms and arches to grander changes as his popular support crumbled—turning
Lake Ontario into “Lake America,” imagining New Mexico as “New America,” and,
much more ambitiously, hoping to swallow the entirety of North America into the
United States.
“The moon is ours” is just how you’d expect a grandiose
nationalist can't even restore access to a small waterway off the Iranian coast
Trump’s final two years in office will be suspenseful,
I’m sure, but not with respect to whether he’ll choose populism over slopulism.
He won’t. The vice president will need to spearhead a populist policy agenda
himself. The suspense will have to do with whether Facebook memes will scratch
the president’s itch for grandeur or whether he’ll end up doing something
drastic to make his mark. We (probably) don’t need to worry about him leading
an army of killer robots, but a surprise invasion of Greenland?
If the moon is ours, why shouldn’t Greenland be?
Low stakes.
The point of our new Dispatch
editorial is that the stakes of the post-Trump era are high. For Americans,
it’s a time for choosing (to borrow a phrase): “The power to decide what comes next is
in the hands of the only people on this Earth who have ever raised their flag
on the moon. In that, at least, we find reason for hope—sober hope—at the end
of a long, vicious, squandered decade.”
We might call that outlook “cautiously pessimistic.” I, a
more incautious pessimist, would counter that the stakes are actually low.
They’re low because it seems inevitable that “what comes
next” will be a choice between two factions that have given up trying to solve
America’s problems. “Postliberal UBI” is not a rational response to the
country’s impending fiscal disaster—unless you’ve abandoned all pretense of
averting that disaster, in which case playing Santa with entitlements until the
bottom falls out is, sort of, rational.
Does it matter terribly whether, in 2029, America ends up
with left-wing policies that it can’t sustain or right-wing policies that it
can’t sustain? Or whether it’s President Vance or President Ocasio-Cortez demagoguing oil companies for “making too much money”?
For cripes’ sake, the presumptive Republican
nominee doesn’t want the dollar to remain the world’s reserve currency.
That’s what I mean by “low stakes.”
“If we have a crisis of political leadership—and we do—we
also have a terrifying crisis of American citizenship,” the editorial declares
at one point, correctly. One small data point will drive that crisis home to
you, in case the previous thousand editions of this newsletter didn’t. Last
month, when CBS News asked Americans if they’d support government price
controls to reduce the cost of living, majorities in all three partisan
groups said yes. Even Republicans, whose traditional suspicion of central
economic planning would have steered them away, one might think.
Guess what happens to businesses that can legally no
longer charge enough for their product to cover their expenses. The fact that
most Americans apparently do need to guess is what makes our citizenship
crisis “terrifying.”
Trump’s slopulism binge this weekend is another symptom
of that crisis. If Republican voters cared about populism on the merits, they’d
resent their leader’s embarrassingly childish diversions more bitterly than his
left-wing critics do. It’s their movement that he’s discrediting, after all,
and it’s their party that will stand to suffer for it in November.
But Republican voters no longer take government
seriously, and why would they? Unfathomable debt, creeping military obsolescence, and an artificial intelligence industry whose
acceleration has turned the future of humanity itself into a black box: America’s leadership class seems to have no idea what to do. And it’s
hard to believe that a better leadership class is coming when the citizens who
choose that class will be increasingly postliterate, dependent on machines to
think for them, reliant on handouts like “postliberal UBI” to pay bills, and
sustained in their stupidest political prejudices by bespoke online slop.
There will be no revival in a country that chose
unseriousness and that will grow progressively less capable
intellectually of choosing anything else. It’s a good thing the moon is ours;
it’ll have to be enough.
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