A Sudden Venezuelan ‘Oil Boom’ Is a Mirage

By Jeffrey Blehar

Tuesday, September 01, 2026

 

A suggestion that I write a new weekly column kicked things off two years ago. Every Tuesday since — rain or shine, without so much as a pause for vacation — the Carnival has been rolling into town, reliably teeming with the worst of our political life. And business has been undeniably good for us, as circumstances have conspired to make the tenor of American politics ever more ridiculous, futile, and deranged. In my inaugural column (where I described myself as NR’s “resident bedraggled cynic”), I explained the new, emergent political spirit sweeping over America, independent of party or ideology:

 

I’m referring . . . to the new political zeitgeist, the sense of carnivalesque viral-video-driven meaninglessness that has infected all campaigns and guides the publicity-seeking behavior of Congress’s most visible (and risible) members like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the Squad, Matt Gaetz, Nancy Mace, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and others. It’s a substanceless grist of talk rather than action, fed into a 24-hour news mill and spat out into a media ecosystem with such quickfire rapidity that responding to all of it is impossible, and a general sense of “LOL nothing matters” sinks in among political observers of an older generation.

 

Two years on, three of the four politicians I named in that paragraph are gone, and I have grown only more bedraggled and cynical. (Just think: in late August 2024 we were stuck with an aging, corrupt, erratic president in danger of blowing the November elections for his party — and here we are again!) But the tone has been set from the top since January 30, 2025: it was the realization that Trump, out of both calculation and personal inclination, was committed to governing by whim and public distraction, all while privileging his own obsessions (including prosecuting his enemies) over America’s needs, that sank me into a morass of despair. (Trump’s naked venality and viciousness, already well in evidence, will only intensify after the November midterms render him a legislative lame duck. What cares Donald Trump for decency?)

 

I guess I’ll let Frank Darabont summarize it perfectly for me: I’m tired, boss. Matters have not improved at all in Trump’s second term. In fact, Trump’s legacy will be to not have one domestically, as his executive orders will be immediately undone by the next Democratic administration, while unspeakable damage to the United States’ geopolitical position and moral standing will not be undone. Meanwhile, the sands in the hourglass slip away as we fail to address our unanswerable long-term obligations. Our national debt continues to spiral; the Social Security Trust Fund will go bankrupt in seven years.

 

All the while, Nero fiddles as Rome burns, and what’s worse, he invites us all to dance along to his rancid tune so that we might forget. I doubt it will work. But I’ll be here, grimly plugging away regardless. It would be a sin — a failure of loyalty, even — to abandon one’s duty station at a moment of crisis like this. In fact, all of this only makes me feel closer to my readers. I guess it’s those little things that keep us together, while the war’s going on.

 

About That Venezuelan Oil Windfall . . .

 

Speaking of America’s recent foreign policy adventures, Donald Trump this weekend announced “THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY!” Per Truth Social:

 

At my direction, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, working closely with Highly Respected Interim President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez, and, through a partnership with private business, have secured majority U.S. control of more than 65 BILLION BARRELS of proven Oil Reserves in Venezuela, at no cost to the American Taxpayer. This Historic Transaction MORE THAN DOUBLES American Oil Reserves, greatly increases our Oil Supply, and will substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans, long into the future, while helping to continue to set Venezuela on a course toward Tremendous Success and Great Prosperity. This Transaction will greatly strengthen the already growing relationship between Venezuela and the United States! Thank you for your attention to this groundbreaking matter. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMP

 

Let’s face it, this is a deal negotiated at gunpoint with a regime that remains happily authoritarian; María Corina Machado must feel great about having forfeited her Nobel Peace Prize to Donald Trump’s ego. But, while there is much to say about the deal’s hinkiness, I’m not about to label it highway robbery. Few these days seem to remember that Venezuela first nationalized its oil sector back in 1976, simply seizing decades of American and European infrastructural investment. Then, in 1990, the country yielded to the reality that it was nowhere as good as Western companies at extracting and refining extra-heavy, sour crude into usable form, and let in ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and Chevron (among other major players) to modernize its infrastructural capabilities.

 

But in 1999, Hugo Chávez became president and immediately began to assert state control over the industry, eventually nationalizing it again in 2007 (he demanded between 70 percent and 83 percent shares in every company’s profits, and once again seized all local infrastructure). Chevron and BP both decided to tolerate being made super-minority owners and yielded all operational control to Chávez; ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips simply exited the market.

 

So on that level, I don’t mind that we’re getting our investment back. But even setting aside the politically grubby optics of this entire deal — in yet another alarmingly statist economic move, the U.S. is taking a 35 percent stake in the newly formed Blue Energy Partners, which means the government is now competing directly with Exxon or Shell — it’s not going to have any sort of immediate effect at the pump.

 

The kind of oil lying underneath the Orinoco Belt needs to be heavily processed before it is usable, and Venezuela’s most crippling immediate problem is that it no longer has either the local expertise or much infrastructural capacity to even get it out of the ground at scale, let alone process it. What was industry-standard technology in 1999–2001 (the point when oil companies immediately began to scale back upkeep and investment on their machines, because they knew full well where Chávez was eventually headed) is rusted-out, creaky junk by 2026.

 

And now? It will take years and billions of investment to properly get the oil flowing and bring the nation’s industry up to speed . . . which makes it an enormous risk for whoever holds the concession. The oil industry in Venezuela has already been nationalized twice. What makes anyone so confident it won’t happen a third time? This arrangement, which severely disadvantages Venezuelans and is liable to inspire intense populist backlash, will undoubtedly be contested in future years, perhaps by another Chavista type. And when that happens, Trump will no longer be in office to threaten another kidnapping raid. Do you expect President Newsom or President Harris to send in Delta Force?

 

That the U.S. would want a piece of the Western Hemisphere’s largest proven oil reserves needs no explanation, especially in a world where Iran threatens to plug (or at least congest) the Strait of Hormuz. But this deal will take a long time to pay off, and once it begins to, it will be immediately up for renegotiation by a regime that hasn’t even been replaced. Trump is a gambler, and this is another wager.

 

Abdul El-Sayed Just Can’t Quit Hasan Piker

 

A brief note on the least entertaining buddy comedy of the 2026 election: Arrogant Abdul El-Sayed is beginning to lose his cool on the campaign trail after fielding repeated demands to dissociate himself from his brother-in-arms Handsome Hasan Piker. El-Sayed, the Democrat running for the Senate, has been flailing more generally in recent weeks, notably by flippantly comparing sex-change surgery on minors to circumcision, but he has begun to evince real resentment at being constantly asked about Piker.

 

Too bad. Piker, a self-described “internet chad,” is a proud Maoist and vicious bigot. He was last seen hideously warning Jews that open support for Israel destines them to become targets of violence, then pretending he meant this as a benevolent plea: stop supporting the Jewish state or else. He has been El-Sayed’s single highest-profile booster nationally, in a race currently notable for the Democratic candidate’s lack of support from Michigan Democrats. Representative Debbie Dingell is the biggest local name to speak on El-Sayed’s behalf or campaign for him so far; Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Senator Gary Peters, and former pols like Debbie Stabenow have kept their distance.

 

So perhaps that’s why the one man El-Sayed refuses to distance himself from is Piker, to whom he seems attached at the hip. Per Axios, El-Sayed met with Jewish Democrats and apologized (unconvincingly) for his repellent “hurt people hurt people” quote from March, written in defense of a Lebanese-American man’s attack on a Detroit-area synagogue. But he refused to ditch Piker, who campaigned with him on many occasions. El-Sayed feels that he owes his primary victory to the guy:

 

Asked repeatedly by reporters Saturday about Piker, El-Sayed wouldn’t engage. “If you want to make this race about a streamer in California, I just think you’re missing the boat,” he said. He later said he was “not interested in a conversation about a social media person in California.”

 

I still fear that El-Sayed is favored to win — the wages of Trumpism will be heavy indeed come November — though the longer El-Sayed spends refusing to cut bait on Piker, the more he makes a narrow loss a real possibility. El-Sayed’s most motivated progressive voters may praise him for his loyalty to Piker. Many others, however, will begin to ask themselves why the candidate is willing to go to bat for a man with such obviously vile views (Piker has a long record of repellent statements) and simply conclude that it’s because he quietly shares them.