Thursday, September 3, 2026

A Subjugating Force

By Nick Catoggio

Wednesday, September 02, 2026

 

I was surprised this week to learn that there’s an “Office of Strategic Capital” at the Department of Defense. I was more surprised to learn that it wasn’t created by the current administration.

 

“Office of Strategic Capital” sounds like an Orwellian sobriquet for the sort of slushy sovereign wealth fund that many third-world kleptocracies operate and that our third-world president covets. But it was Joe Biden’s government, not Donald Trump’s, that launched the OSC in 2022. And it did so for a legitimate purpose, “to issue and guarantee loans to companies developing technology ‘vital’ to national security,” per Semafor.

 

The agency wasn’t designed to be corrupt, in other words, but it was destined to become corrupt once its management passed from a liberal regime to a postliberal one. Handing a pot of money with a hazy mandate and a national security halo to an executive branch run by Trump is like hiring the local mafia boss to run your charity. What do you suppose will happen?

 

What ended up happening is exactly what you’d expect would happen.

 

The OSC is in the news this week because of its role in the new oil deal struck between the White House and its puppet government in Venezuela. As Gil Guerra explains elsewhere on the site today, “Venezuela has granted private oil producer North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) 100-year concessions to operate 17 fields that the White House says contain more than 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. In return, NABEP granted Washington a 35 percent stake in its parent company, a guaranteed right to buy 20 percent of production at cost, first refusal on the remaining 80 percent, and veto power over every board appointment.”

 

Is any of that legal? You know the answer to that too.

 

The arm of the federal government that will formally acquire America’s 35 percent stake in NABEP is the Office of Strategic Capital, which means the U.S. military is now—literally—in business with the oppressive Chavista regime in Venezuela. “It’s basically like the IRGC model of national defense,” Jonah Goldberg said of the deal on the latest Dispatch Podcast, referring to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. “The IRGC basically owns somewhere between 50 and 80 percent of the Iranian economy, and that’s one of the reasons why it’s so corrupt and ass-backward now.” We’re now following Iran’s lead in Venezuela.

 

To add to the stench: Alejandro Betancourt, the man in charge at the NABEP, has benefited not once but twice from extraordinary interventions by people around Trump to shield him from criminal probes. In 2019, according to the Washington Post, the Justice Department was investigating him for money laundering and bribery; Betancourt had the good sense to dial up presidential mega-crony Rudy Giuliani to lobby the DOJ on his behalf, and was never charged.

 

Last year he became the target of a new investigation into money laundering by Switzerland and was twice arrested in Great Britain, where he lives. The Trump administration wanted him as a go-between with Delcy Rodríguez’s new post-Maduro government in Venezuela, however, and lobbied the Swiss to let him travel internationally—replete with personal pleas from then-Attorney General Pam Bondi and future Attorney General Todd Blanche. Once again, with help from presidential allies, Betancourt got his way.

 

Now he’s returned the favor with a sweetheart deal entitling his American patrons to a century’s worth of Venezuelan oil. “Trump’s favorite brand of partner combines disdain for the law and democratic norms with an absolute dependence on Trump,” Jonathan Chait noted of the NABEP chief. That’s the sort of person in whom the U.S. armed forces are now quite literally invested.

 

Will Americans still recognize their military two years from now?

 

Luxury nationalism.

 

It’s hard to find something to say about the oil deal that wasn’t said, and said better, by Guerra and the Dispatch Podcast gang. But I’ll add this: More so than any other Trump gambit since the president returned to office, it epitomizes “luxury nationalism.”

 

The hallmark of luxury nationalism, as I’ve argued, is, well, luxury. Other forms of nationalism celebrate suffering and sacrifice as the price of restoring the nation to greatness; Trump, a born con man, naturally promised to achieve that restoration without those costs. Under his leadership, nationalism would be easy.

 

And in Venezuela, it was.

 

Nicolás Maduro was removed in a military operation that saw no American troops killed. His regime, led by Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, meekly submitted to U.S. hegemony. Luxury nationalism “supposes that the United States is so immensely powerful, economically and militarily, that whether it prevails in any conflict is purely a matter of will,” I wrote last week. It imagines that, “to return to national greatness, all we had to do was elect a leader with the will to use national power to compel lesser rivals to serve our interests. No sacrifice required.”

 

Venezuela’s submission was proof of concept—so much so, it appears, that it enticed Trump into attacking Iran expecting the same result.

 

What I didn’t say last week, but will say now, is that luxury nationalism logically obliges Americans to adjust their expectations of their government in certain ways.

 

One way, conveniently for the president, is to be more tolerant of corruption. Trump could have tried to oust Maduro “by the book,” sending the Marines into battle against Venezuelan forces. And sure, they would have ultimately succeeded. But at what price? How much American blood would have been spilled?

 

Instead, by conspiring with lowlifes like Rodríguez and Betancourt to orchestrate a bloodless coup, the president achieved the same result with no loss of life. He kept his promise of national glory without sacrifice. Why should the Americans who voted for that question his methods?

 

The other shift in expectations has to do with the concept of luxury. A population that’s been primed to expect easy, costless national victories has also been primed, I suspect, to think of “victory” in material terms more so than it used to. “We will liberate the people of Venezuela from socialist tyranny” is an altruistic, even noble, battle cry—but nothing about it says “luxury.”

 

“We will subjugate the socialist tyrants in Venezuela and take their oil,” though? Now that’s luxurious. It’s not a coincidence that Trump is forever justifying military policy in terms of tangible wealth that might be extracted from the target, from land in Greenland to minerals in Ukraine to oil in Venezuela, Iraq, and even Iran. “The Defense Department, of all agencies, should not be acting as a hedge fund unconstrained by law,” National Review recently declared, but that’s not true under an ethos as rapacious as luxury nationalism. A lawless hedge fund backed by tanks is basically the platonic form of the concept.

 

A leader who sold nationalism to Americans as something that would make their lives more, not less, comfortable needs something to point to as proof. A 35 percent stake in billions of barrels of Venezuelan black gold is something he can point to. You wanted luxury? You got it.

 

Leverage.

 

When I say “you got it,” I’m speaking figuratively. The reality is that the United States doesn’t have Venezuela’s oil yet and stands a high chance of never having it.

 

That’s another point worth stressing about the deal. For all the “America First” blowhardery in defense of the arrangement, the main beneficiary is likely to be—surprise—Trump himself.

 

Read the fine print in the reporting on Venezuela’s petroleum industry and you’ll find that it’s years away from being able to produce crude in volume again, having long ago fallen into disrepair from decades of socialist management. Even if it’s fixed up (at the American taxpayer’s expense?), any benefit to the United States will start to accrue only after the president has left office. Which is highly uncharacteristic of him.

 

We’re talking about a guy who absconded with reams of sensitive national security documents after he left office in 2021 and who intends to abscond with the private jet that the Qatari government gifted to America last year in 2029. Whenever his official duties lead to something valuable being placed in his hands, he expects to benefit personally from it. How will he benefit personally from oil that will remain in the ground until after he’s retired?

 

More to the point, how will he benefit from it if America elects a Democrat in 2028? It’s unthinkable that a left-wing president would leave the deal fully intact; a party hellbent on tearing down everything Trump has touched, from the White House ballroom to ICE to a nine-justice Supreme Court, is unlikely to make an exception for his postliberal shakedown of a poor, left-wing Latin American country.

 

The oil deal might not survive his presidency, in which case what’s in it for him?

 

What’s in it for him, of course, is influence. It’s not the oil itself that’s valuable to Trump, it’s the political leverage he’s gained from the rights to it. He now controls a sizable share of a very lucrative international asset that might come to fruition if his party remains in charge of the government in 2029. If you want a cut of it, you need to come to him. And he’ll expect something in return.

 

That explains 95 percent of his fascination with tariffs too, I think. There’s probably some earnest protectionist argle-bargle clanking around in his head that helps him justify his trade policy to himself, but he plainly relishes the power tariffs give him to punish foreign antagonists and reward courtiers with waivers as he desires. Every new levy he issues incentivizes some poor sap out there to kneel before him and beg for relief.

 

And relief is available, depending on what sort of favors they might be willing to do for him.

 

The Venezuela oil shakedown is just a means to an end of many smaller shakedowns, in other words. It was driven by the same mentality that drives Trump’s appetite for acquiring stakes in domestic companies, which I described last year as “socialism without socialism.” For all his populist pretensions, the president doesn’t share socialism’s goal of redistributing wealth to “the forgotten man” of the underclass. But he does, emphatically, share its fondness for a command-and-control economy in which one’s livelihood depends on earning and retaining the leader’s favor.

 

If you’re looking for a theory of why a Democratic president might not tear up the deal with Caracas, there it is. Having inherited a “portfolio” of diverse foreign and domestic “holdings” from Trump, how many politicians would lightly disgorge it?

 

Subjugation, not liberation.

 

The last point to make about the deal is that it’s part of the corruption of the U.S. military. That corruption has been ongoing since January 2025 and shows no signs of slowing down.

 

Americans take pride in their armed forces for two reasons. One is that they’re the most capable in the world and have been so since at least the end of the Cold War. The other is that their most glorious victories have always been as a liberating force.

 

Always. They overthrew a monarchy in the 18th century, overran a slaveholding regime in the 19th, and smashed two diabolical fascist empires on opposite sides of the world simultaneously in the 20th. When the U.S. Army comes knocking on a tyrant’s door, freedom is close behind.

 

But not anymore. Not in Venezuela.

 

Twice this year the military has intervened in Caracas in ways that will extend, not end, the immiseration of the Venezuelan people. One was executing Trump’s scheme to bring Rodríguez to power. Now that the White House is a friend to the Chavistas rather than a sworn enemy, the regime’s grasp on the country is likely stronger than it was a year ago.

 

The other is the oil deal, which gives our military a financial reason to oppose elections in Venezuela. Resentful at seeing their oil wealth expropriated by los Yanquis, especially under a bargain negotiated at gunpoint involving a hated oligarch like Betancourt, the people there might plausibly prefer a leader who’ll cancel the agreement. (“An illegitimate interim government with an illegitimate hydrocarbons law has no legitimacy to strike this unconstitutional deal,” one former official tweeted.) Given how the U.S. stands to profit from the status quo, that means democracy in Venezuela has become a threat to American interests.

 

Read that again: Democracy in Venezuela is now a threat to American interests. And the president hasn’t been coy about it, either.

 

The White House is so worried about Rodríguez being replaced if free elections are held that it’s begun meddling in local politics to ensure that “the opposition” is also led by a U.S. puppet. Talks have begun in Caracas about a transition to democracy, but it isn’t Nobel laureate María Corina Machado who’s representing the anti-Chavistas at the table. It’s a former lawmaker named Dinorah Figueira who isn’t prominent in the pro-democracy faction yet was “plucked by the Trump administration out of obscurity” to negotiate on its behalf, per Politico.

 

“No one in the Venezuelan opposition, no one, would have selected her as the opposition representative,” former diplomat Elliott Abrams told the outlet of Figueira. Obviously, Trump believes that Figueira will prioritize his interests—namely, America’s rights to the country’s oil—more aggressively than Machado would, so he’s trying to sideline the latter. If that turns out to be a prelude to disqualifying Machado from running in a future election, then Jonah’s point earlier about the IRGC won’t be the only way in which America is behaving like Iran in this matter.

 

Its financial and now political stake in the current regime means that the U.S. military has become a force for the subjugation, not liberation, of the Venezuelan people. It was the muscle in a gangster’s shakedown scheme, and now, via the OSC, it’s getting its own cut of the action. Americans in uniform have done worse things, but this has to be the first case in my lifetime of the armed forces intervening somewhere for such nakedly rapacious reasons.

 

That’s destined to influence how the military and its personnel think of their organization and themselves in years to come. Mike Nelson put it well on The Dispatch Podcast: “I think what we’re seeing now is … we are not going to try to change Venezuela for the better. We are going to allow Venezuela to change us for the worse.”

 

Declining competence.

 

Then again, changing for the worse was baked in, no?

 

News about the oil deal played out this week alongside daily revelations about the wrecking ball Pete Hegseth is taking to the Pentagon. Before resigning a few days ago, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll reportedly staged an intervention with Trump himself to warn him that Hegseth had fired, forced out, or blocked the promotions of so many senior leaders that the Army now faced a crisis of readiness. The sort of institutional expertise needed to transform the branch to fight wars in the age of drones is being immolated.

 

The president was reportedly “surprised” to hear that despite the extensive coverage Hegseth’s moves have received in major newspapers. (That’s what happens when a “human printer” is controlling your access to information, I guess.) Case in point: The New York Times revealed just this morning that seven more top Army officers have been denied promotions for reasons the defense secretary refuses to disclose.

 

One, described as “one of the best combat leaders in the infantry,” was allegedly nixed because “Mr. Hegseth’s office erroneously believed he had allowed a mentorship group for female paratroopers to exist in his unit and conduct an all-women’s airborne jump.”

 

Combine that with the other shocks to the U.S. military’s prestige this year—the infamous munitions shortage, the surprising vulnerability to Iranian missile attacks, the alarming slowfootedness in adapting to modern warfare, the secretary’s sneering contempt for protecting civilians—and the other traditional source of pride America has had in its armed forces is also suddenly wobbly. They might still be the most capable on Earth, but under the current leadership, no one wants any further tests of that assumption.

 

The people who elected Donald Trump understood they were voting to degrade the country, I think, in return for what they hoped would be cheaper groceries. I doubt many expected that they were also voting to degrade the world’s greatest military, morally and operationally, by supporting a leader who preached “toughness” at every turn. But that’s the thing about degradation: Once you get comfortable with it, it tends to spread. Our military’s degradation is its legacy as much as it is the president’s.

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