By Noah Rothman
Monday, March 16, 2026
Typically, a president would assemble an international
coalition of the willing, so to speak, before the outset of a fraught military
campaign against a hostile adversary, not after. That is not this president’s
style. But for all his willingness to test the staid parameters of conventional
wisdom in Washington, Donald Trump seems to be learning that gratuitously
antagonizing your allies can invite undesirable consequences.
As is his habit, the president is soliciting America’s
allies’ assistance in opening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic in the
most unnecessarily aggressive way possible.
“We have a thing called NATO,” Trump told the Financial Times over the weekend. “We’ve been very
sweet.” Trump contended that the United States has provided for Europe —
specifically, Europe’s collective efforts to provide for Ukraine’s defense
against a Russian onslaught. “Now we’ll see if they help us,” he added.
“It’s only appropriate that people who are the
beneficiaries of the Strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens
there,” the president declared. “If there’s no response or if it’s a negative
response, I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO.”
America’s European allies have responded coolly to the president’s overtures. Some have
flatly insisted that they want no part of the U.S.-Israel campaign against the
Islamic Republic. Others, like Keir
Starmer’s U.K., are straddling the fence and weighing their options.
“It is in our interest to keep the Strait of Hormuz open,
and that’s why we are also discussing what we can do in this regard from the
European side,” European Commission Vice President Kaja Kallas said on Monday. She even floated a version of
the “Black Sea Initiative” to unblock the Strait, reprising the tactics that helped
Ukraine export its grain while also disabling much of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. But the fact that she is in talks with U.N.
Secretary General Antonio Guterres about such an initiative should lead
observers to conclude that it’s going nowhere
fast.
Beyond Europe, Trump has also leaned hard on the nations
in Iran’s region to take ownership of their own security. “I’m demanding that
these countries come in and protect their own territory, because it is their
own territory,” Trump said to reporters aboard Air Force One of the countries
Iran has attacked since the outset of this conflict (including Oman, Saudi
Arabia, Jordan, Cyprus, Turkey,
Azerbaijan, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain). While
reportedly supportive of the war’s goal of neutralizing Iran’s power projection
capabilities, these states are committed only to maintaining the defensive
posture they have assumed since the war’s outset.
Trump has also called on Asia — America’s allies and adversaries alike —
to take on the burden of helping to “police” the Strait. Japan is playing coy,
citing the “high hurdles” to overcome in its pacifist constitution. South Korea “takes note” of Trump’s request, promising only
that it “will closely coordinate and carefully review” it. Even China, a
nominal partner in an international coalition aimed at containing Islamist
piracy in the region, said only that its participation in any such operation
would have to be discussed at a highly anticipated April summit between Trump
and Xi Jinping.
This flurry of diplomatic activity contributes to the
impression promulgated implicitly by the press that the Trump administration, in CNN’s language, “did not plan for the possibility of
Iran closing the strait in response to strikes.” In the days since that report
was published, dozens of military analysts have observed how unlikely it was
that administration or Pentagon officials simply overlooked what was widely
known to be the central pillar of Iran’s self-preservation strategy. But the
disruptions associated with conflict in the Persian Gulf, however anticipated
they may have been, are still painful.
The administration has sought to calm the nerves frayed
by the market’s gyrations over the last three weeks, insisting that the Strait
could not be unblocked and escort missions undertaken before Iran’s coastal
power-projection capabilities had been properly degraded. But the markets are
spooking everyone, including the president, and his administration wants relief
sooner rather than later.
And yet, those who anticipated that a total shutdown of
traffic on the Strait would be short lived, if Iran pulled the trigger on that
option at all, did so with the understanding that Iran could only hold out for
so long — both militarily and economically, insofar as cutting off traffic in
the Strait also imperils Iran’s own economic security. Over the weekend, what
remains of Iran’s political representatives essentially acknowledged as much.
“As a matter of fact, the Strait of Hormuz is open,”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told MS NOW’s reporters. “It is only closed
to the tankers and ships belong[ing] to our enemies, to those who are attacking
us and their allies. Others are free to pass.” Even if shipping interests
prefer not to transit the strait, “this has nothing to do with us.” That’s
Araghchi’s way of saying that the Strait is impassible not because its
waterways are mined and Iran’s drone and missile capabilities are prohibitively
dangerous, but, rather, because traversing the Strait is not fully insured.
In this light, Trump’s global outreach makes sense.
Whether the international community likes it or not, there will be no going
back to a post-war world. Iran is no longer a potential threat to the
exploration, exploitation, and shipping of commodities through the Strait. It
is an active one that the globe — not just America and Israel — will have to
contain for however long the Islamic Republic has left. That will be a
commercial enterprise as well as a military venture, and the sooner the rest of
the world acknowledges its role, the better.
Consternation in foreign capitals over this new set of
unanticipated conditions is understandable. So, too, is the dearth of goodwill
in places like Europe toward an administration that has been, at the very
least, less than cordial toward the Atlantic Alliance and its member states.
But whatever hard feelings exist between the Trump White House and America’s
allies, events should compel everyone to paper over those disagreements.
There’s a war to win, and the whole world has a stake in it — whether they like
it or not.
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