Dire Strait

By Rich Lowry

Saturday, March 14, 2026

 

The CNN report the other day that the administration didn’t properly plan for a closure of the Strait of Hormuz has come in for heavy criticism. My guess has been that both sides in the debate over the piece have been talking past to each other — yes, the administration obviously knew that the Iranians could close the strait, but it didn’t necessarily think they would close the strait.

 

The CNN report was clearly dependent on Democratic sourcing for what the administration has been saying in briefings. This Wall Street Journal report seems better sourced and rings true to me:

 

Before the U.S. went to war, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told President Trump that an American attack could prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Caine said in several briefings that U.S. officials had long believed Iran would deploy mines, drones and missiles to close the world’s most vital shipping lane, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.

 

Trump acknowledged the risk, these people said, but moved forward with the most consequential foreign-policy decision of his two presidencies. He told his team that Tehran would likely capitulate before closing the strait — and even if Iran tried, the U.S. military could handle it.

 

The story notes later:

 

The president and some advisers were surprised at the breadth and scope of Iran’s retaliation, which included missiles and drones launched at regional countries from Azerbaijan to Oman, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

And part of the problem here was the lack of a robust planning process:

 

Typically, war preparations include weeks or months of classified deliberations, written planning documents, the airing of dissenting views from diplomats and intelligence officials, and National Security Council meetings with cabinet members to make the most informed decision.

 

Only a small group was looped into the preparations for Iran — including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Hegseth. That narrowed the advice, information and ideas available to the president, who had to balance the many downsides of an attack. . . .

 

Left unanswered were such questions as how to evacuate U.S. citizens in an escalating conflict — or ensure the next Iranian leader was friendly with Washington, U.S. officials said.

 

Some senior aides and U.S. diplomats who manage Middle East affairs were told little to nothing about plans for the war. They learned the bombing had started from social media and news reports.

 

Now, the current situation doesn’t mean the apocalypse — the price of oil is the highest it has been in four years, not in, say, 50 years — but we almost certainly have weeks to deal with this issue, not months.