By Noah Rothman
Friday, March 20, 2026
At least for the time being, the Israeli air campaign
over Iran, in particular, seems to have effectively terrorized the Iranian people’s terrorizers.
Israeli intelligence has so thoroughly penetrated the
Iranian security services that the Israel Defense Forces can effectively corral
IRGC and Basij forces in the kill boxes of their choosing. They are making
calls to individual Iranian security officers, informing them that they are on
the “blacklist” and warning them to defect before they are eliminated. Before
he met his fate at Israeli hands, the former head of the Basij paramilitary,
Gholamerza Soleimani, had fled to the woods where he commanded his deputies
from a tent. The Israelis got him, too, with the aid of Iranian tipsters on the
ground.
The Institute for the Study of War has a wry take on the
Israeli air war over Iran, in which the IDF has targeted the symbols of the
Iranian regime’s power and elements of its internal repression apparatus.
“Allowing overpasses to dictate one’s tactical deployments rather than
determining deployments based on tactical realities is certainly suboptimal,”
its latest dispatch read, citing
videos of Iranian security agents hiding from the Israeli panopticon
in the skies beneath elevated highways. “These reports indicate a
notable level of operational shock across the regime’s coercive apparatus,
including the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Basij, and Law
Enforcement Command (LEC), and suggest that elements of Iran’s internal security
system are functioning suboptimally at this time.”
Suboptimal though Iran’s internal security services’
operations may be, their efforts to intimidate the Iranian population into
subservience — even killing potential dissidents — continue.
“In one incident, two teenage brothers were shot and killed after honking their
car horn in celebration of the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
in the war’s opening salvo,” the Washington Post reported Friday. “Authorities are also
still detaining people linked to the January protests, former political
prisoners, or members of minorities.”
The executions continue inside Iran. Saleh Mohammadi, one of the supposed dissidents the Islamic
Republic put to death this week, was a star wrestler who was accused of
participating in mass anti-regime protests in December and January. He was just
19 years old when he was hanged to death before a public audience.
The Trump administration’s response to this particular
atrocity has invoked language that wouldn’t sound remarkable coming from any
other president. But for this president, the rhetoric does represent a
departure of sorts:
Even opponents of this war on the right, like Senator Rand Paul, cited it as evidence (as if more
were needed) of the Iranian regime’s illegitimacy and the desirability of
regime change:
From the outset of the war, the president advocated
liberty promotion as one of its objectives. “All I want is freedom for the
people,” the president told the Washington
Post at the outset of hostilities. That message is not at odds with the
statement Trump made in announcing the start of Operation
Epic Fury. “Now is the time to seize control of your destiny, and to unleash
the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach,” he told
the long-suffering Iranian people. “This is the moment for action. Do not let
it pass.”
The Trump administration has been cagey about endorsing
Israel’s primary strategic objective in this war, creating “the conditions” for
regime change. Most administration principles prefer to emphasize a narrower
and more achievable objective: eliminating Iran’s capacity to project power
across its borders. But if the Trump administration seeks to neutralize the
Iranian threat permanently, something only regime change could achieve, Epic
Fury will need an indigenous ground force to do what air power alone cannot.
That’s where the Iranian people come into play.
So, in pursuit of a realist objective — “regime change without nation building,” in Foundation for
Defense of Democracies executive director Jonathan Schanzer’s formulation — all
and sundry are compelled to embrace the rhetoric typically associated with
human rights activism and democracy promotion as an antidote to the abuses of a
totalitarian state. Even critics of the extent to which past administrations
have elevated those concerns to near-doctrinal importance recognize their
instrumental utility.
Human rights, liberalism, and the promotion of American
values are not luxury beliefs or the stuff of woolly headed dreamers who know
nothing of the intricacies of geopolitics and statecraft. They have practical
value, too. It’s good to see the Trump administration acknowledge as much,
however belatedly.
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