By Noah Rothman
Monday, March 23, 2026
It’s not so much that there is an eagerness abroad in the
press for an American defeat in its ongoing war against the theocratic regime
in Tehran. If, however, Donald Trump is sufficiently humiliated at the end of
this campaign, it seems that, for some, an American defeat is acceptable
collateral damage.
What other conclusion could you draw from the American
press corps’ reaction to Trump’s announcement on Monday morning that he will delay for five
days his promised attacks on Iranian power plants following “in-depth,
detailed, and constructive” talks with Iranian representatives? The statement resulted
in a stampede of journalists alleging that the president had capitulated. “TACO”
Tuesday came early this week.
Such was the political press’s commitment to the default
notion that Trump backed down that they took the Iranian regime’s
pronouncements at face value. “There is no direct contact with Trump, not even
through intermediaries,” Iran’s Fars News Agency reported. “Trump retreated after hearing
that our targets would be all power plants in West Asia.”
Why did so many assume that a notoriously mendacious
regime was, in this instance, telling the truth? Why was it so hard to believe,
as Axios’s Barak Ravid subsequently reported, that
regional powers such as Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan are shuttling indirect
communications between the U.S. and Iran? For some, it was easier to conclude
that the president was deliberately and baselessly attempting to manipulate
international markets.
Maybe these reporters weren’t following the international
press coverage of the conflict all that closely, particularly from outlets that
are well-sourced in the Gulf region. If they had, they’d see plenty of
indications that the United States isn’t the only party to this conflict that
is feeling the pressure.
Tehran’s representatives are still beating their chests,
of course. But they, too, are signaling a desire to repair the damage their
attacks on Gulf state civilian targets have done.
“The lying . . . US President,” read one Iranian statement, “has claimed that the
Revolutionary Guards intend to attack the water desalination plants and cause
hardship to the people of the countries in the region.” But at the outset of
this war, Iran did attack Bahrainian desalination plants designed to
make seawater potable. That’s a blink.
Additionally, reports indicate that Iranian officials are
increasingly wary of executing additional attacks on the Kingdom of
Saudi Arabia, particularly Riyadh’s energy infrastructure, for fear of
instigating a direct hostile response from the Saudis. “If you target civilian
infrastructure, we will be forced to strike you,” one Saudi official publicly
warned Iran. Iran has also pared back strikes on targets in Qatar after Doha expelled
Iran’s military and security diplomats following Iranian strikes on its natural
gas fields. Those are blinks, too.
Of all Iran’s neighbors, the United Arab Emirates is
perhaps the most fed up with the Islamic Republic’s behavior:
And the UAE’s posture seems indicative of the prevailing
sentiment toward Iran in the Gulf region.
“Iran is public enemy number one to all six [Gulf
Cooperation Council] states,” said one UAE-based
academic. “The pressure will mount for the GCC states to switch from a
defensive to an offensive posture — especially as interceptor stocks run low,” Ali Bakir, a professor of international security at Qatar
University, agreed. “The US decapitating the Iranian regime for good is
definitely the only option we have now,” declared Muhanad Seloom, a professor
at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, whose authorship of a piece for the Qatar-based outlet Al Jazeera declaring
the U.S.-Israel war strategy both effective and desirable sent shockwaves
through the region last week.
There were plenty of indications that Iran was feeling
the pain of this war as much as Trump before the president abruptly postponed
his deadline for specific strikes on specific targets. That should not have
been difficult to recognize even before
Iran all but admitted that it was, in fact, lying about indirect talks with
the United States (imagine that!).
These fast-moving developments and the undue eagerness to
lend credence to Iran’s claim that Trump “backed
down” all on his own were, however, clarifying. “From Tehran’s perspective,
this is a notable achievement,” Atlantic Council fellow Danny
Citrinowicz wrote, “they didn’t fold, didn’t back down, and may have forced
Washington to recalibrate its objectives.”
For those of us who are invested in America’s success in
this war, that would be pretty bad news. It’s too early to render such a
pronouncement, of course, and it’s obvious that the Trump administration is reeling amid Iran’s successful
effort to put unanticipated pressure on the global energy market. But Iran is
reeling, too, and CENTCOM’s stated endgame for this war remains unchanged. The gleeful assumption that Trump is
suffering a personal indignity seems to have crowded out the prospect of more
sophisticated analysis.
No wonder Americans think
we’re losing. All the smartest people seem to think so. And they don’t need
to wait around for evidence to confirm that conclusion.
No comments:
Post a Comment