By Rich Lowry
Tuesday, March 17, 2026
The reason why we have the Fifth Fleet, one of the most
awesome naval forces ever assembled in the history of mankind, is to protect
the sea lanes in the Middle East.
That the Strait of Hormuz is now effectively closed is
not just a blow to the global economy and a key point of leverage for the
Iranian regime; it is an assault against one of the foundations of American
power.
Guarding the safe passage of commerce has been a core
Anglo-American commitment for a couple of centuries, with the baton of naval
leadership passing from the British to the United States around the time of
World War II.
British naval preeminence in the 19th century contributed
to the creation of the modern world by enabling relatively safe and inexpensive
global commerce. We have done the same in the post–World War II era.
This has never been an entirely altruistic endeavor,
since — as two commercially oriented nations heavily involved in international
trade — the U.K. and the U.S. benefited mightily from the arrangements
guaranteed by their warships. But so did everyone else.
Just consider the global pain from the current effective
closure of the Strait, which is being felt at the pump in the U.S. and
threatens to hammer Europe and countries throughout Asia. Not just oil, but
aluminum, fertilizer, and any number of other products are being affected.
If shipping in the Strait remains as constrained as it is
now for months rather than weeks, the economic damage could become intolerable.
Iran is the equivalent of a piratical Barbary state that
is managing to undermine a defining element of American geopolitical strategy,
despite the beating that it is taking otherwise. We have two carrier strike
groups in the region, representing alone more firepower than many nations can
muster, and the Iranians have some missiles, drones, and mines — and yet
they’ve effectively closed the Strait, and we, for now, can’t reopen it.
This is a stark demonstration of asymmetrical power, and
the longer it goes on, the more it will look like a national humiliation.
There’s no one who is going to bail us out, because we
have a world-class navy whereas our allies don’t — even if they wanted to help.
Trump would like to muster an international force to
reopen the Strait, but Germany has rebuffed him, and the Japanese and
Australians aren’t interested. France is putting together a force — to deploy
after the end of hostilities. Imagine if that had been our attitude about the
Battle of Belleau Wood.
The fact of the matter, though, is that allied countries
aren’t going to think it’s possible to reopen the Strait if we haven’t managed
to do it on our own.
Trump’s two basic options are to seek some unsatisfactory
accommodation with the Iranians that ends in a cease-fire — with the Iranians
having demonstrated their de facto control of one of the most consequential
waterways in the world — or to break their grip on the Strait by force of arms,
perhaps up to and including the deployment of ground forces to secure the
shores of the Strait.
Trump seems inclined to bludgeon the Strait free of
Iranian control. U.S. officials say we could begin naval escorts in a matter of
weeks, and they worked during the Tanker War between Iran and Iraq in the
1980s.
The great 19th-century naval strategist, Alfred Thayer
Mahan, argued: “Control of the sea by maritime commerce and naval supremacy
means predominant influence in the world.” This was the experience of the
British, and has been ours for a long time. “The necessity of a navy,” Mahan
also said, “springs from the existence of peaceful shipping and disappears with
it.”
In the Strait of Hormuz right now, peaceful shipping has
largely disappeared, while we are deploying a mighty navy. If our forces can’t
restore free navigation, it will represent a significant failure of a
traditional pillar of U.S. power.
No comments:
Post a Comment