By James Lileks
Sunday, March 15, 2026
A1,300 lb. satellite fell to Earth this past week, and unless you’re on the
phone right now with the insurance company and the roofers, you probably didn’t
notice. The chances of anyone getting brained by a piece of debris was small,
the authorities insisted, “just 1 in 4,200.”
Hmm.
If those were million-dollar lottery odds, you’d buy a
ticket. But as of this writing, there are no reports of anyone getting their
hair mussed or suffering a windshield ding. Stuff falls from space all the
time.
At least the falling satellite doesn’t reinforce an
ongoing narrative of national decline. Such an event was once a sign of
American malaise. Remember Skylab? NASA sent it aloft in 1973, a “space
station” that provided an utterly unsatisfying coda to moon shots. Instead of
heading back to the Moon and building a base so we could raise the flag and
laugh at the Russkies, we put up a big bus where astronauts did Science Things.
It did not fire the public imagination. Americans did not tune in nightly to see
if Skylab experiments had proven that mold could grow in zero Gs. The orbit
decayed, and Skylab came down in 1979. It felt like another sign of the
American slump. The nation that sent men to the Moon to drive around in a car
and hit a golf ball couldn’t keep Skylab from tumbling out the heavens. To make
matters worse, it inspired a disco song: “Skylab Is Falling.” A long way from “Fly Me to
the Moon.”
It got better. We got better. The Shuttle brought back
pride and a sense of American panache, although the Challenger disaster
made every subsequent launch something of a nail-biter. Now, we have cool Musk
vessels landing on platforms like 1950s needle-nose sci-fi movie rockets, or
caught by gantry toothpicks. That’s the dominant image of American space
know-how, and when combined with the technological dominance displayed in the
2026 Iran War — including lasers, just like Star Wars — you wouldn’t be
surprised if China’s massing of ships and troops to take Taiwan occasioned the
appearance of a fully operational Death Star with its sights trained on the
Three Gorges Dam.
All of this, unfortunately, puts NASA in the shade. The
upcoming Artemis II Moon voyage, which 97 percent of the population probably
doesn’t know about, will reinforce our new commitment to Moon exploration, but
you have the suspicion that Musk will be signing contracts with Buc-ee’s for a
Moon base store before NASA gets Artemis up and out. It doesn’t help that
Artemis has O-ring problems, like the Shuttle; it’s like the White Star Line in
1922 saying its vessels are unsinkable “unless they scrape a ’berg at night,
but what are the chances of that?”
The satellite that fell this week was the Van Allen Probe
A, designed to study the Van Allen belts. Its sibling, the Van Allen Probe B
(designed to study the Van Allen suspenders, presumably), is still up there,
and it’ll soon have more company: “The Federal Communications Commission
approved the launch of thousands more Amazon satellites last month,” The
Independent reports, “and SpaceX hopes to launch up to a million more
Starlink satellites to serve as orbiting data centers.” Advocates for a less
cluttered sky are opposed, since they insist that teeming heavens block
telescope observation. Valid point — but no doubt the view will be better from
Mars. Best get cracking on that, then. Can we do it? It isn’t 1979. Yes, we
can.
The other day, the New York Times had a story about the possibility of rocks from Mars having
seeded Earth with life, an old theory that’s making the rounds again. It’s not
as if a boulder dropped, cracked open, and Adam stepped out, blinking and
confused, but perhaps Martian microbes hitched a ride on a meteor, and Martian
life ended up colonizing Earth. Time, perhaps, to return the favor.
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