In Iran, Trump Reaches a Turning Point

By Elliott Abrams

Saturday, February 28, 2026

 

President Trump’s announcement of a U.S. military campaign against Iran was an exceptional moment for him and for our country. From its earliest days in 1979, the Islamic Republic chose the United States as an enemy: first seizing our embassy and making our diplomats hostages, later murdering Americans in the Marine barracks in Beirut in 1983 and Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia in 1996, and killing hundreds of soldiers during the Iraq War. “Death to America” has been their constant slogan. And the United States never decided to put an end to these attacks — until now.

 

In previous strikes at Iran, such as President Reagan’s attack on the Iranian navy in 1988 and Trump’s own “Midnight Hammer” strike against Iranian nuclear sites last year, American objectives were limited. But Trump has put behind us “surgical strikes” and has told Americans that the regime is evil and is an enemy, and we want it gone. That is why he recited, in his announcement of the campaign, the history of the regime’s crimes against us. He repeated that the regime cannot be permitted to have a nuclear weapon, but he expanded his war aims well beyond that.

 

This is a turning point for Trump, whose previous uses of force have not involved American casualties and were over when he announced them: the lethal strike on Iranian terror leader Qasem Soleimani in his first term, Midnight Hammer last year, and the seizure of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro in January. Trump acknowledged that this was a multi-day campaign and that there would be U.S. losses. In his statement, he told Americans, “My administration has taken every possible step to minimize the risk to U.S. personnel in the region. Even so, and I do not make this statement lightly, the Iranian regime seeks to kill. The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost, and we may have casualties.”

 

That this is a campaign means Trump has broken his rule about “one-and-done” rapid military attacks, but he has not broken the rule about avoiding invasions and U.S. troops on the ground; this will be no Iraq or Afghanistan. That is the meaning of his appeal to Iranians to rise up: When I said help is on the way, he is explaining, what I meant is this air assault to weaken and perhaps decapitate the regime. The rest is up to you. Trump pointedly said, “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be, probably, your only chance for generations.”

 

Iran has done Trump a favor by attacking all its Arab neighbors, which makes those neighbors U.S. and Israeli allies. The U.S. does not now need to cajole them into assisting our forces this week and helping to stop Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel; we are all on the same side against Iran. We can assume that after the war, there will be new U.S. diplomatic efforts to bring Israel and the Arabs closer by expanding the Abraham Accords. Much will of course depend on what is left of the Islamic Republic, whether the Ayatollah Khamenei survives, and who is in charge in Tehran. It is striking that Russia and China can do nothing useful right now for their friends in Tehran, proving once again that only the United States is truly a global power and it is by far the dominant power in the Middle East. When the conflict ends, it will be the United States that leads the diplomatic efforts to pick up the pieces and forge a more peaceful and stable region.

 

President Trump is trying to change the Middle East and the world. The main factor of instability in the Middle East for decades has been Iran and its proxies, such as Hezbollah and Hamas (and more recently, the Houthis in Yemen). Previous U.S. and Israeli strikes have weakened the Iranian regime, but today’s actions are on a quite different scale, and they will change the political and security situation in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, the entire Arabian Gulf, and Israel. If the regime falls, it is much more difficult to see how Prime Minister Netanyahu can be ousted in this year’s election in Israel. The Lebanese government will be bolder in taking on Hezbollah. Shiite militias in Iraq will be weakened in that country’s negotiations over a new government.

 

But even if the regime hangs on, its pretense to be the dominant regional power — with a huge ballistic missile array and a nuclear weapons program — will have been shattered. While we cannot predict the date of its collapse, whether that takes weeks, months, or years, that collapse has been brought closer. The credit belongs to Donald Trump, who has a made a bold and risky decision that deserves firm support.