By Noah Rothman
Friday, February 20, 2026
Six weeks ago, the United States pulled off an
unprecedented tactical and strategic military coup. At every level, the raid
that resulted in Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro’s capture demonstrated
the dazzling extent of U.S. capabilities.
The raid was a feat of intelligence work. The CIA laid
the groundwork for it beginning last August, with the introduction of a
clandestine team that tracked Maduro’s travel patterns and compromised human
assets in his orbit. It was also a display of technological prowess in the
digital realm. “It was dark; the lights of Caracas were largely turned off due
to a certain expertise that we have,” the president said in the wake of the strike, acknowledging the
previously undisclosed U.S. cyber capabilities deployed against the Venezuelan
regime.
The raid featured an impressive use of combined arms as
well. “Operation Absolute Resolve” used 150 air assets — fighter aircraft, B-1
bombers, unmanned surveillance drones, and penetrator helicopters — to
neutralize Venezuela’s radar and anti-air defense network as well as to
introduce and extract American special forces. Those forces (U.S. Army Delta
Force commandos, to be specific) executed with precision the raid they had
practiced for months at a scale replica of Maduro’s safe house.
Those commandos even deployed a new weapon that the
president refers to only as “The Discombobulator,” a weapon that ensured that
Venezuela’s defensive weapons would “not work.” In addition, reports indicate
that U.S. forces deployed what’s being described as a “sonic” device that incapacitated enemy forces. “Suddenly I
felt like my head was exploding from the inside,” said one of the raid’s survivors. The weapon reportedly “brought
Venezuelan soldiers to their knees, ‘bleeding through the nose’ and vomiting
blood.” Venezuelan and communist Cuban security forces resisted U.S. forces,
but they caused no American casualties. Thirty-two of the Cubans who served in
Maduro’s praetorian guard were returned to Havana in shoeboxes.
The American capabilities on display had a sobering
effect on the audience of American adversaries watching from afar. The speedy
neutralization of China’s “anti-stealth” radar systems and Russia’s S-300
anti-aircraft systems led even America’s most dogged detractors to admit that
you just had to hand it to the U.S. military. “The key to the success of the
mission was that the US forces held the absolute superiority in terms of
military might,” the Chinese propaganda outlet Global
Times confessed.
They ain’t seen nothing yet.
The amount of firepower the United States will have
deployed to within striking distance of Iran by this weekend is like nothing
the Middle East has seen since the run-up to the 2003 Iraq War. But to even
invoke America’s Iraq War–era capabilities — as so many media outlets have, to
convey to readers the scale of America’s deployment — is misleading. Iraq was a
generation ago, not just in chronological terms but also in relation to the
modernity of U.S. weapons systems and platforms.
Today, F-22 Raptors and next-generation F-35 Lightning II
fighter jets, advanced command-and-control aircraft, and modern warships
augment the conventional capabilities that Americans are used to seeing at work
on modern battlefields. A single carrier air wing can execute over 100 bombing
runs in just 24 hours. By the end of the weekend, the United States will have
two carrier groups in position to execute strikes on Iranian targets.
If the Iranian mullahs refuse to capitulate to the
president’s demands, they are about to experience a truly biblical whirlwind of
death.
“Where previously you could do 40 or 50 strikes a day, we
now have the ability to conduct hundreds of strikes a day. That in itself
changes the equation completely for the regime,” retired
Vice Admiral Bob Harward, a onetime deputy commander of U.S. Central
Command (CENTCOM), told the Jerusalem Post. “I don’t think anyone really
understands the scale or capacity we have because no one’s ever seen it
before.”
If Trump green-lights strikes on Iranian targets, Harward
anticipates a phased approach. First, U.S. forces (in possible coordination
with Israeli forces — an acknowledgement that Iran will make no distinction
between the U.S. and its allies if war breaks out) will hit Iranian military
targets. Ballistic missile launchers, air-defense assets, and the Iranian
proxies throughout the region that can retaliate against U.S. personnel, as
well as its partners’ forces, will be neutralized at the outset. Next, “You’re
going to look at infrastructure,” Harward said — “the things that enable the
regime and the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] to suppress the people.”
“If it does happen, this will be illuminating for
everyone to understand where we have come in terms of size, scale, speed, and
capacity,” Harward speculated, “be it Russia or China.”
There is a lot of conflicting information circulating about the scope and
duration of the strikes Trump envisions. Even the objective of this mission is
in doubt. For the moment, preserving ambiguity serves the president’s
interests. But it is unlikely that Trump would pursue only the kind of “limited
strike” he’s entertaining now for the benefit of the journalists who are
expected to convey the president’s apparent trepidation to Iranian war
planners. A restrained approach wouldn’t make much sense.
The regime in Tehran faces a use-it-or-lose-it scenario,
and it may decline to hold its deterrent capabilities in reserve when the
shooting starts. The wisest course would be to unleash the unimaginable might
of U.S. air and naval forces at the start of hostilities, neutralizing Iran’s
retaliatory capabilities and leveling the symbols of the regime’s authority in
an effort to reignite the anti-regime protests the Iranian clerisy so brutally
crushed in January.
Such a course of action would not only weaken the regime
in Tehran, perhaps fatally, ridding the West of a 50-year thorn in its side. It
would also prove demonstrative.
China is watching to see what the United States can do.
How fast can it move its forces around the globe? How long can it sustain power
projection? How do its air and maritime logistics bridges function under
strain? How long can its munitions last given the sortie tempo that is
envisioned in press accounts previewing the forthcoming strikes? How well does
its alliance structure hold up under the strain of a sustained engagement with
a hostile nation — an enemy that gets a vote and will attempt to
retaliate against America and its allies both in the Middle East and farther
afield?
If it comes to a fight, as it increasingly looks like it
will, the American mission in the Persian Gulf will be a fraught contest. It
could unfold over weeks, and the risk to U.S. service personnel and civilians
is real. President Trump should level with the American people about what this
campaign will entail, and he should do so soon. This will be a national
project, and Americans’ participation in it must be cultivated.
We cannot know just how this conflict will unfold. But
one thing we can be sure of is that the world has never seen what is about to
be unleashed against the agents of the most malignant regime on earth. The
world is about to get an eyeful.
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