By David M. Drucker
Monday, February 23, 2026
Marco Rubio is vowing not
to challenge Vice President J.D. Vance for the
Republican nomination, a decision that appears to preclude the secretary of
state from launching a 2028 White House bid. But many GOP insiders believe that
commitment is less ironclad than it seems.
Stoking skepticism of Rubio’s denials has been his recent
assertion of influence inside President Donald Trump’s Cabinet: torpedoing
the Russia-friendly peace accord White House
diplomatic envoy Steve Witkoff tried to force on Ukraine, running
point on Venezuela following U.S. military action to
facilitate the arrest of strongman Nicolás Maduro, and addressing European leaders at the Munich Security Conference. Also
sparking speculation that Rubio is keeping his options open is the existence of
a political nonprofit group founded and run by close political advisers.
America 2100 was
founded in 2023, at the beginning of Rubio’s third
term as a Florida senator, by Mike Needham, a top political counselor and his
former chief of staff. The 501(c)4 organization’s slogan—“Ensuring the next
century is an American century”—is similar
to the secretary’s 2016 presidential campaign motto.
Since circulating
videos in the fall of 2024 to bolster the Trump-Vance
campaign, America 2100 has gone dormant. Per its latest Internal Revenue
Service filing, the group had banked just under $3 million, a paltry sum.
But that the group continues to exist has caught the
attention of some veteran Republican operatives. America 2100 could function as
an initial launchpad for a Rubio 2028 bid should circumstances change—for
instance, in the event Vance doesn’t run for president. The organization might
also offer a discreet way for GOP donors who hope the secretary changes his
mind about seeking the White House to express support, as 501(c)4s do not have
to disclose contributors. (America 2100 declined to comment.)
“This is like planning for a rainy day,” Republican
consultant Jeff Burton told The Dispatch. “At this point it doesn’t
appear likely that he would run against J.D. Vance. But a lot can happen in the
next couple of years. Things change fast in politics and it’s always better to
be prepared.”
“There’s going to be a large contingency of donors who
prefer Rubio to Vance,” a longtime Republican strategist added, requesting
anonymity to speak candidly. “That does not mean Rubio will run—but it does
mean there will be a market for him to run whether he chooses to do so or not.
And so it only makes sense there would exist a receptacle for people to go who
just walk in the door.”
With Trump, 79, barred from reelection because of
constitutional term limits, Vance’s and Rubio’s emergence as the leading
Republicans to succeed him in 2028 reveals the extent to which the outgoing
president has altered the GOP during his decade-plus atop the party.
For nearly three decades after Ronald Reagan’s
presidency, traditional conservatives made up the majority of the Republican
coalition. They were (and are) partial to small government, free markets and
free trade, and a foreign policy that favored interconnected alliances led by
Washington, with the GOP platform reflecting that agenda. Heading into the
nation’s 61st presidential election, conservative populists have
firmly taken the reins of power from the Reaganites.
Big government industrial policy is in, as is skepticism
of financial markets, international trade, and foreign policy that revolves
around the post-World War II alliances the U.S. built and nurtured for so long.
To varying degrees, Vance and Rubio reflect this newer, Trump-inflected
populist GOP—and their domination of the 2028 discussion on the right suggests
the previous version of the party isn’t returning anytime soon (although
traditional conservatives remain as a robust minority).
“Rubio and Vance represent different shades of the
post-Trump, populist domination of the Republican primary base,” Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at
the Ethics and Public Policy Center, a conservative think tank in Washington,
D.C., said in an interview with The Dispatch. “The fact that they are
the two people who are being talked about as the leading contenders
demonstrates that … a return to pre-Trumpism is impossible.”
“The victory of Trump in 2016, and the victory of Trump
in 2024, and the continued victories of Trumpist-style candidates in Republican
primaries shows that Republican voters like a populist-infused Republican
party,” added Olsen, who has closely studied populism’s rise inside the GOP.
“There is still a significant minority that would prefer an unpopulist-infused
Republican. They are overrepresented in the D.C. elites.”
Rubio, 54, says he is firmly behind Vance for 2028. “If
J.D. Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of
the first people to support him,” the secretary told Vanity Fair in an
interview last year. Rubio is no doubt interested in
mounting another White House bid, an effort that might be less taxing the
second time around because his four children are now grown. But so far, Rubio
is focusing on his job—doing and saying little to cast doubt on the sincerity
of his endorsement of the vice president.
Indeed, to avoid uncertainty about his intentions, the
secretary appears to be deliberately steering clear of domestic travel, other
than to Florida to visit family (including trips to Gainesville, to watch his
son play
football for the University of Florida). Compare that
to Mike Pompeo, Trump’s secretary of state during the final three years of his
first presidency. Pompeo traveled extensively inside the U.S. during his tenure, while also hosting private
dinners with business, media, and political leaders
aimed at raising his national profile.
Meanwhile, Vance, 41, is full steam ahead. The vice
president has spent
the last year as Republican National Committee finance
chairman, entrenching him in the national party apparatus. Vance is supported
on the outside by a coalition of wealthy GOP donors and party operatives, known
as Rockbridge
Network—formed specifically to strengthen his White House prospects. And he
regularly gasses up Air Force Two for trips abroad and to key swing states to
promote Trump’s domestic and foreign policy agendas, all the while burnishing
his image as the 45th and 47th president’s heir apparent.
Add to that Vance’s incredible
popularity among Republican primary voters, the
likelihood of receiving Trump’s endorsement should he run—and, according to
some Republican insiders, the unlikelihood
of facing meaningful competition in the primary—and
the nomination would seem his for the taking. Still, when asked about his 2028
plans and a theoretical
rivalry with Rubio, the vice president downplays both.
“Marco is my closest friend in the administration, I think he’s doing a great
job for the American people,” he told Fox News’ Martha
MacCallum. “That’s what we’re focused on.”
“I think it’s so interesting,” Vance added in that
interview. “The media wants to create this conflict, where there just isn’t any
conflict.”
But it’s not just the media. Gaming out whether Rubio
2028 comes to fruition, or whether the GOP is more likely than not to nominate
a Vance-Rubio ticket, is something of an obsession among Republicans inside the
Beltway.
Many traditional conservatives inside the party regularly
confide to The Dispatch that they prefer Rubio. To be sure, the
secretary embraced Trump-styled domestic populism following his failed 2016 presidential campaign. But he has
retained his penchant for internationalist foreign policy that projects
American power and is friendlier to alliances, which is comforting to GOP
Reaganites—especially if the alternative is Vance. Plus, they’re convinced
Rubio is more appealing than the vice president with general election voters.
As for Rubio, he once reflected on what it takes to be
successful in presidential politics in an interview with this reporter,
explaining, essentially, that it all comes down to timing. And that might shed
some light on his thinking vis-à-vis Vance.
“I’m not a surfer but I equate it a little bit to
surfing,” the secretary said following Trump’s first term, in an interview for In
Trump’s Shadow; The Battle for 2024 and the Future of the GOP about his political future. “You can have the best surfboard in
the world; you could be the best surfer in the world. If there’s no waves, or
if you don’t time the waves, you’re not going to surf. You don’t control that
part of it.”
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