Monday, July 31, 2023

The Achilles’ Heel of the Rich and Powerful

By Kevin D. Williamson

Monday, July 31, 2023

 

Of course, Donald Trump has a valet problem. How could it be otherwise?

 

As Hunter S. Thompson observed in a different Palm Beach-related scandal many years ago—the infamous Pulitzer divorce case—“The servant problem is the Achilles’ heel of the rich. That is the weak reed, a cruel and incurable problem the rich have never solved—how to live in peace with the servants. Sooner or later, the maid has to come in the bedroom, and if you’re only paying her $150 a week, she is going to come in hungry, or at least curious, and the time is long past when it was legal to cut their tongues out to keep them from talking.”

 

The people with whom Trump surrounds himself are … not the “best people,” as he promised. (But if you are surprised that Trump has failed to keep a promise, you should have asked Mrs. Trump, or Mrs. Trump, or Mrs. Trump, for that matter, or maybe Stormy Daniels.) The list is one that a novelist would blush to invent: Mike Pence, the pious fraud who did Trump’s bidding right up until the moment doing so stopped serving his interests and now presents himself as the second coming of St. Francis; Rudy Giuliani, the knee-walking grifter who still remembers enough law that he already has stipulated the falsehood of his stolen-election nonsense—that swill is fine for the slavering proles in the Fox News audience, but even Giuliani wouldn’t try to defend it in court; Roger Stone, literally the kind of cuckold he likes to accuse others of being metaphorically; etc. And now Trump’s valet, Walt Nauta, is facing the prospect of time in a federal penitentiary after what reports describe as a truly clownish cloak-and-dagger affair involving “shush” emojis, sneaking through the hedges at Mar-a-Lago, and roping another minion into a scheme to destroy evidence when he did not have the technical chops to get the job done himself. These putzes make the White House Plumbers of Watergate infamy look like the Count of Monte Cristo crossed with Professor Moriarty. Criminal masterminds, they ain’t. 

 

Miles Taylor, former chief of staff at Homeland Security, recently told a podcast that part of his job was dumbing down security briefings for the “incandescently stupid” president. 

 

This fifty-page memo that we would normally give to any other president about what his options are is something Trump literally can’t read. … And so I had to write this incandescently stupid memo called something like, “Afghanistan, How to Put America First and Win.” And then bullet by bullet, I summed up this highly classified memo into Trump’s sort of bombastic language because it was the only way he was gonna understand. I mean, I literally said in there, “You know, if we leave Afghanistan too fast, the terrorists will call us losers. But if we wanna be seen as winners, we need to make sure the Afghan forces have the strength to push back against these criminals.” I mean, it was that dumb and that’s how you had to talk to him.

 

Some of you will know Taylor as “Anonymous,” author of a famous New York Times essay. He eventually quit the administration (when it was more convenient for him to do so), but do you know what he didn’t do? He didn’t say, “Mr. President, you are not smart enough to have this job, and you can’t even read a proper briefing. One of us has to go, and I imagine it will be me, but this needed to be said.” Now, this was a guy who plainly loathes Trump and what Trump stands for, and he stuck it out through what must have been some pretty humiliating service (one does get the feeling that he is getting the word out about that idiotic memo before someone else draws attention to it), and, that being the case, how likely do you think it is that somebody who wants to serve in the Trump administration—somebody who, for whatever perverse reason, admires the man and his moronically vicious/viciously moronic style of politics—is going to set him straight about anything? I have friends and colleagues who served in the administration in senior roles, and they typically defend that decision (assuming they haven’t gone all-in on Trump cultism) in terms of damage control, making the best out of a bad situation, giving good advice to the bumbling amateur in the Oval Office and the collection of miscreants, subordinate con-men, and incompetents surrounding him. But actually standing up to the guy? No, as far as I can tell, none of them ever did that. 

 

To a man like Trump, everybody is a servant. Even his current wife is, in effect, a former employee, having been part of the Trump Model Management stable before her marriage to the man with his name on the door. That’s one of the reasons Trump has such a hard time getting—and keeping—good help. Rex Tillerson wasn’t the secretary of state—he was just another valet, one of many. He knew what Trump was—“a f—–g moron,” in his own words—but he took the job. Some people in Trump’s orbit are happy to be treated as servants—there was never such a servile creature as Sean Hannity—but that isn’t how you get first-rate Cabinet secretaries, agency heads, or generals. One of the reasons for Trump’s failure as a president—and one of the reasons for his current legal troubles—is that anybody around him who had the brains and the guts to say, “Hey, dummy, you can’t do that!” got fired before he could explain things to the game-show host with whom the people of this country entrusted the nuclear codes for four long years. 

 

And that is why my money is on the actual valet to be Trump’s undoing. Trump is too cheap to buy the loyalty of a servant (he will only rent it) and he isn’t really the kind of goon he aspires to be—he inspires more contempt and pity than genuine fear. 

 

But you’ll notice that every time he fired some uppity underling who wasn’t with the program, four more popped up begging for the job. Sure, they are reliably incompetent, dishonest, and morally repugnant, but there are a lot of them, and the servile temperament is simply born into some people. As Hunter Thompson once wrote of the denizens of the grimy edges of Palm Beach: “These are servants and suckfish, and they don’t really matter in the real Palm Beach, except when they have to testify.”

 

Economics for English Majors

 

In a column about congestion pricing in New York City, Paul Krugman of the New York Times writes: “Now, nobody is suggesting a ban on driving into Manhattan.” When you read in the Times that “nobody is suggesting x,” then you can be sure that progressives are on the verge of proposing that we mandate x. It took about five minutes to go from “nobody is talking about gay marriage” to “bake that gay-wedding cake, peon, or we’ll seize your assets.” 

 

In fact, people have been talking about a ban on driving in Manhattan since Dwight Eisenhower was in the White House. “We propose the banning of all cars from Manhattan Island, except buses, small taxis, vehicles for essential services (doctor, police, sanitation, vans, etc.), and the trucking used in light industry,” Dissent magazine wrote way back in 1961. Professor Krugman’s Times colleague Fahrad Manjoo has suggested banning private cars from Manhattan. Manjoo was inspired by the Practice for Architecture and Urbanism’s proposal, forthrightly described as “banning private cars from Manhattan.” There’s more: “It’s time to ban cars from Manhattan,” James Nevius writes in Curbed. The Guardian has considered the question sympathetically, as has Business Insider, commentators you can read at Y Combinator and Reddit, Crain’s, etc. I suppose it is possible that all of these are nobodies in Professor Krugman’s estimate, but, from my point of view, it looks like a whole lot of nobodies are suggesting a ban on driving into Manhattan.

 

Professor Krugman advocates a less radical path, adding a fee and letting people respond to economic incentives. 

 

Is either proposal a good policy? 

 

Professor Krugman, who used to be a first-rate economist before he became a third-rate newspaper columnist, touches on the economic questions only lightly, instead throwing the red meat that readers have come to expect of the Times’s op-ed pages, arguing that the soundness of the policy is so strongly endorsed by the experts that the only explanation for its not being implemented is “sabotage” on the part of affluent suburbanites Times readers should hate. New York Times class warfare is a very funny kind of class warfare—class warfare sponsored by Cartier!—but, there you have it:

 

Might a congestion charge have some undesirable side effects, like increased truck traffic in the Bronx? Policies always do — but given the sheer size of the costs one inflicts by driving into Manhattan, it’s inconceivable that these would undermine the basic case. Should New Jersey be getting some revenue from the fees? Maybe, although hundreds of thousands of New Jersey residents commute into New York by train or bus, and these commuters would gain from reduced congestion after they arrive.

 

What’s really striking is how few people stand to benefit from New Jersey’s attempt to block or delay congestion charges. Fewer than 60,000 New Jersey residents, out of a state labor force of almost five million, commute into New York City by car. They are also, as it happens, relatively affluent, with a median annual income of more than $100,000, relatively well able to handle the extra cost. For this, New Jersey is trying to sabotage crucial policy in a neighboring state?

 

Truck traffic in the Bronx is a real issue—it already is a real issue and has been for a long time, and it is becoming more of an issue every day as people of the sort who subscribe to the New York Times move into shiny new buildings in Manhattan-adjacent Bronx neighborhoods such as Mott Haven. Also, the Bronx is a place where real people live and work—the toll scheme would function, at least in part, as a pollution-transfer plan, sparing the city’s central business district while dumping the externalities on outlying areas. Assuming that these outer-borough types matter in the great human calculus as much as the ones who reside in Manhattan do and given that the effects on their neighborhoods is unknown at this time, scarcely having entered into the thinking of such commentators as Professor Krugman, it is not precisely “inconceivable that these would undermine the basic case” for a congestion fee. If we are interested in the long-term health of the city, then we probably should consider the fact that most of the fastest-growing neighborhoods in New York are outside of Manhattan. 

 

Congestion fees—and outright prohibitions on private vehicles—are policies that have been implemented with limited success in some very specific contexts. London is one of the most famous cases. Its congestion fee does seem to have reduced traffic by about10 percent—though the exact size of the effect remains hotly contested—while unintended consequences (including reduced sales at some London department stores, for example) have been significant. The original program was going to—all together now!—“pay for itself,” with the collections farmed out to a contractor that would turn a profit on the system, sharing some of the proceeds with the city of London. That failed in more or less the way you would expect, and now the system is run on a nonprofit basis and run pretty poorly, with about 26 percent of congestion charges going uncollected and rampant fraud. It does produce a dividend, but a modest one. Are we all sure New York City will do much better, because it is so famous worldwide for the excellence of its municipal administration? More successful models can be found in the places you would expect it: Singapore, which has used congestion pricing since the 1970s, and Stockholm, where the usual Swedish bureaucratic competency keeps things orderly. 

 

(I like to imagine how the domestic politics would play in in New York’s version: No congestion charge if you are driving in to get an abortion, but you’ll pay double if you work at an investment bank—and if you are a “BIPOC pangender person” New York probably will end up paying you to drive down Lexington Avenue.)

 

There are other things New York City and its partners in the region could do to make other forms of transportation more attractive: For example, a mass-transit system in which riders were more likely to arrive on time and less likely to be murdered or rat-bit would probably do wonders. Indeed, the cynic in me thinks of these proposals as a means of punishing people who have noticed how badly the powers that be in New York and environs have run things, in particular those who have responded by taking matters—and the steering wheel—into their own hands. That’s a pattern: The conventional public schools fail, so declare war on charters, private schools, homeschoolers, etc; the police and prosecutors won’t do their jobs, so blame gun shops and the law-abiding people who shop there; etc. Fixing transit in and around New York City is a political nightmare, because it involves many different agencies (the imbeciles who run the Long Island Railroad and Metro North are not the same imbeciles who run the subways) and jurisdictions and rivalrous political and economic incentives: The people who run Stamford, Connecticut, would rather be the place where the banks are located than the place where young bankers get on the train to go to work, and the worse things get on Metro North, the better the case for doing business in Stamford or Greenwich or wherever. I am not suggesting that the town fathers across Connecticut are engaged in “sabotage,” to use Professor Krugman’s overwrought word, but surely the tradeoffs in play affect how they calculate their priorities. 

 

If you want fewer cars on the street, then, by all means, make it more expensive to put cars on the street. (And if you want fewer people to save and invest, raise taxes on savings and investment. And if you want to reduce the value of work, raise taxes on work income. Etc.) If it doesn’t reduce traffic, then your fee wasn’t high enough. You could put a 5,000 percent tax on parking, if you wanted to. Or you could do what “nobody is talking about” doing, and prohibit cars from the places you don’t want cars.  

 

But if you want to make life in New York radically better, fix the dang trains. It’s a tough one to take on. That’s why I always hope one of these so-called New Right creeps will get into local and state government—you want to be Mussolini, let’s first see if you can make the trains run on time. 

 

Elsewhere, in the Financial Press … 

 

Everything you ever wanted to know about sex from … the Wall Street JournalIt isn’t as weird as it sounds. But if the Financial Times comes out with a dating app …

 

Words About Words

 

Yuval Levin has wise things to say about revolutions. And, more to our purpose here, he knows what the word “enormity” means, which is something evil, not something enormous

 

There were some Americans who thought the same, at least in the early stages of the French Revolution. One of them was the principal author of the Declaration of Independence, so his view certainly has to be taken seriously. But it’s worth seeing that for all of his zeal for the French Revolution while it was happening, Thomas Jefferson concluded late in his life, after seeing what became of the Revolution, that it had gone too far, and that if the king and the people had reached an arrangement more like the moderate American regime (or even like the limited monarchy of the British), they could have averted “those enormities which demoralised the nations of the world, and destroyed, and is yet to destroy millions and millions of its inhabitants.”

 

Those enormities were a function of the unbounded radicalism of the revolution itself, and of the fact that they then led to military dictatorship and the Napoleonic wars. This was not where the American Revolution pointed, because while the American Revolution sought to ground political life in the core and fundamental truth that we are all equal under God, it did not take this truth to require a politics of radical disjuncture.

 

In Other Wordiness … 

 

Professor Krugman talks about “sabotage.” But spare a thought for “cabotage.” You will not find a more amusing explanation. 

 

Burning Bright … 

 

In British-y Englishness, this bit from the BBC about the latest indictments of Donald Trump gave me an interesting mental image:

 

Ahead of Mr Nauta’s arrival, Mr de Oliveira is said to have asked a Mar-a-Lago valet not to tell anyone about the visit because Mr Nauta wanted it to be a secret.

 

Prosecutors claim that, when Mr Nauta and Mr de Oliveira met that evening, they walked around with a torch and pointed at surveillance cameras in a tunnel near the storage room.

 

Of course, as the British speak, a torch is a flashlight. 

 

But it isn’t impossible to imagine these very stable geniuses walking around with the flaming kind of torch. 

 

In Closing

 

She haunted many a low resort

Near the grimy road of Tottenham Court;

She flitted about the No Man’s Land

From The Rising Sun to The Friend at Hand.

And the postman sighed, as he scratched his head:

“You’d really ha’ thought she’d ought to be dead

And who would ever suppose that that

Was Grizabella, the Glamour Cat!”

“Grizabella, the Glamour Cat”

T. S. Eliot

 

If you listen to people explain why they hated the film adaptation of Cats, in 27 cases out of 30 the answer boils down to the fact that the film is, more or less, Cats, the infamously inscrutable Broadway sensation that made a billion and a half dollars and ran for almost two decades but which does not have much in the way of what you might call a plot. Jennifer Hudson was fine as Grizabella in the film, and she knows how to handle “Memory,” which is to Cats what “Don’t Cry for Me, Argentina,” is to Evita—the main reason most people sit through the show at all. As I wrote when the Cats film premiered, Hudson was a sensible choice for the role, but there was a missed casting opportunity for someone who was in many ways—some of them tragic—born to play that role: Sinéad O’Connor. 

 

O’Connor knew her way around a big Broadway showstopper, as she showed on her recording of “Don’t Cry for Me, Argentina.” (Madonna does not fare well in the inevitable comparison between their takes.) The singer Alison Moyet marveled that O’Connor was “as beautiful as any girl around and never traded on that card,” which is, of course, not true. In an era in which REM was making baroque and cinematic miniature films inspired by Gabriel Garcia Marquez stories, O’Connor’s most famous contribution to the music-video genre consisted of a sustained close-up of her face. She knew what she looked like. The famous buzzcut may have been intended as a feminist statement, but it also enhanced her beauty rather than detracting from it. 

 

O’Connor was a sort of real-life Grizabella, once a great beauty who fell into reduced circumstances, ostracized, lonely, hungry to be once again embraced by her tribe. Grizabella was rejected on moral grounds (the “low resort” of Tottenham Court is an oblique reference to prostitution) that served, at least in part, as a cover for the envy her glamor had once inspired—Sinéad O’Connor certainly knew something about that. 

 

T. S. Eliot omitted the Grizabella poem from Old Possum’s Book of Practical Cats on the grounds that it was “too sad for children.” O’Connor lost a 17-year-old son to suicide and attempted to kill herself a dozen times before her death last week. She spent much of the last part of her life making a spectacle of herself, trying on new identities by the month—lesbian, asexual, radical splinter Catholic, Muslim—at one point, she was ordained a priest by a rogue pseudo-Catholic sect and at another point she started going by the Islamic name Shuhada’ Sadaqat.

 

She was from time to time dinged by stupendously ignorant people because her most famous song, “Nothing Compares 2U,” was Prince’s composition rather than hers. But “Nothing Compares” was as much her song as Carl Perkins’ “Blue Suede Shoes” belonged to Elvis Presley, as did Mike Stoller and Jerry Lieber’s “Hound Dog,” originally written for Big Mama Thornton. (Nobody seems to have cared that Luciano Pavarotti didn’t write his own tunes.) O’Connor’s voice on its own would have been sufficient, but she was a very good writer, too: How many of her contemporaries could boast of anything to compare to “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” “Mandinka,” or “The Last Day of Our Acquaintance”? Her politics were daft, naturally, and occasionally vicious, as in her admiration for the Irish Republican Army. But if you are getting your political views from pop singers, the problem is with you, and even the sustained moral illiteracy of the lyrics cannot spoil “Black Boys on Mopeds”—there are many famous singer-songwriters who never have and never will write anything as fine as that. 

 

Success, beauty, money, fame, international celebrity, glamor—none of these offers protection against the encroachments of time and loss, the slow and repetitious beatdown of ordinary human sadness. There is a special kind of suffering reserved for beautiful women, in whom the natural effects of age are treated as a degradation. A beautiful woman needs a second act—and you can be sure that the world will do its utmost to deny her that, as though her beauty were the one fixed point in the universe around which her life must revolve, as though there is nothing else for her to be. Sinéad O’Connor from time to time got herself on the right track in her search for shelter in religion and relief in art, but she seemed to need more than these have to offer—of all the addictions to break, celebrity may be the hardest. Performers, like politicians, have a perverse need to be loved by strangers, and while O’Connor was more than resilient enough to face the world’s scorn and outrage, she was not strong enough to endure its indifference. The world moved on, and she could not. 

 

I imagine she would reject that characterization, perhaps in these words:

 

He thinks I just became famous

And that’s what messed me up

But he’s wrong.

 

But the singer isn’t the song, and, in this case, you want to listen to the song even if you must necessarily take the singer as a cautionary example:

 

Whatever it may bring

I will live by my own policies.

I will sleep with a clear conscience.

I will sleep in peace.

 

I do hope so. Rest in peace, at last. 

 

I like to imagine O’Connor being greeted in the afterlife by the sainted Pope John Paul II, who arrived at that far shore no less in need of a Redeemer than she does. They will, I think, have a good deal to talk about. 

The Fear Factor

By Rich Lowry

Monday, July 31, 2023

 

Of all the advantages that Donald Trump has in the competition for the 2024 Republican nomination — immediate past president, ability to generate enormous media attention, etc. — perhaps foremost among them is the fact that other Republican candidates are afraid of him.

 

It’s hard to think of anyone who has ever won a major-party nomination while showing fear, especially of someone else in the field.

 

A successful candidate might be careful around certain issues or constituencies, or back off an unpopular position. But being clearly scared by an opponent is something else, entirely. George W. Bush and John McCain might have hated or disdained each other, same with McCain and Mitt Romney, or Romney and Newt Gingrich. But no one was ever clearly, demonstrably afraid.

 

Until now.

 

When asked about Trump, most of the candidates might not actually lick their lips, or swallow hard, or begin to blink faster, but you wouldn’t be surprised if they did. Generally, they’ll evade questions, reject the premise, or revert to an answer that has been as carefully crafted as an official statement by one of the parties to negotiations over the Paris Peace Accords.

 

You can almost see them thinking:

 

Maybe he’ll leave me alone.

 

Maybe he’ll make me his veep.

 

Maybe there will be a better time to attack him later.

 

And, I can’t risk offending his voters.

 

If they can help it, his opponents will never say Trump’s name — he’s the most unnamed major politician in American history. Mike Pence tends to call him “my former running mate.”

 

This means that Donald Trump’s political dominance of the rest of the field extends to a kind of personal and psychological dominance. They are afraid, and he’s not.

 

A key aspect of the Trump phenomenon from the beginning has been how he’s brought the subrational element of politics that’s always been there, but usually relatively submerged, to the fore — more Frans de Waal, author of Chimpanzee Politics, than Richard Hofstadter; more Dana White than Lee Atwater.

 

This raises the possibility that not taking Trump head-on means more than simply missing the opportunity to make the case against him. It also means implicitly acknowledging his status as the Big Man of Republican politics, and the rival’s status as a subordinate player in the world Trump created and rules.

 

The only one who’s really not playing this game is Chris Christie, who gives as good as he gets and also needles Trump and initiates fights against him. If Christie can achieve a breakout in New Hampshire, it will be based, in part, on winning points on strength and courage while doing and saying what no one else dares. (Will Hurd and Asa Hutchison criticize Trump, too, but more politely and conventionally.)

 

All that said, the other candidates are reacting to a genuine conundrum — Republican voters might be open to an alternative to Trump in theory, but they don’t want anyone to criticize him. How to square that circle is the biggest challenge for the rest of the field, at least those members of it genuinely running to win.

 

To be fair, Ron DeSantis, as Trump’s main target, has been willing to push back as necessary, and he makes a constant, implicit critique of Trump’s electoral prospects and governing abilities. But the Florida governor is always careful to stay on the right side of the line, biding his time for later or hoping that his message catches on without having to grasp the nettle. This isn’t unreasonable, but, again, it exposes a disparity — he has a strategy, while Trump has a sledgehammer.

 

So long as everyone believes that Trump has one and they don’t — and acts accordingly — the fear factor will continue to work in Trump’s favor.

The Economy That Republicans Don’t Want to Talk About

By Jim Geraghty

Monday, July 31, 2023

 

Judging from the latest CBS News/YouGov poll, the American electorate is more than ready for change. It’s itching for change.

 

When asked how “things in America today are going,” just 5 percent of American adults answered, “very well,” and 23 percent answered, “well.” Another 36 percent answered, “somewhat badly” and 35 percent said, “very badly.” The answers were similar when the pollster asked respondents to rate the state of the economy — 29 percent offered some version of “good,” and 65 percent responded with some version of “bad.” Just 21 percent said the economy is getting better, and 58 percent said it was getting worse.

 

CBS News asked respondents which words they would use to describe the state of the economy.

 

The most common answer was “struggling,” at 61 percent. The second most common answer was “uncertain” (56 percent), followed by “unfair” (36 percent) and “punishing” (27 percent). Only 15 percent selected the positive “rebounding.”

 

I remind you, President Biden recently unveiled a new messaging effort focused on “Bidenomics.”

 

You don’t have to look too hard to find Biden supporters who insist that these Americans are just perceiving the economy incorrectly — perhaps a “false consciousness,” as the old Marxists would describe it. In their eyes, the national unemployment rate is low, the year-to-year inflation rate is much better than last year’s four-decade high, and the stock market is booming, so Americans who perceive economic hard times are just a bunch of ingrates who don’t realize how good they have it under President Biden.

 

Back in May, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman entitled a column, “Why Are Americans So Negative About the Economy?” He noted, “You don’t want to say that Americans are stupid; you certainly don’t want to sound like that John McCain adviser who insisted that America was a ‘nation of whiners’ who were experiencing only a ‘mental recession.’ On the other hand, there are now huge gaps between what people say about the economy and both what the data says and what they say about their own experience.” Krugman concluded that it wasn’t stupidity but Republican messaging: “Partisanship surely explains much of this divergence.” He also added, “There’s good reason to believe that media reports about the economy have had a strongly negative bias.”

 

But in the CBS News poll, nearly half of all self-identified Democrats shared in the gloom, with 34 percent saying things in the country were going “somewhat badly,” and 15 percent saying, “very badly.” Among self-identified independents, 39 percent said things were going “somewhat badly,” and 40 percent said, “very badly.” And when asked to rate the economy, 29 percent of Democrats said, “fairly bad,” and 15 percent said, “very badly,” adding up to 44 percent. Among independents, 41 percent said, “fairly bad,” and 31 percent said, “very badly,” adding up to 72 percent.

 

If, as Krugman contends, reflexive partisanship is what makes people perceive economic hard times, those numbers shouldn’t be anywhere close to those levels among Democrats and independents.

 

CBS News and YouGov followed up among those who said they think the national economy is “fairly bad” or “very bad,” giving them a list of options to explain why they think the economy is bad. Respondents were able to select more than one option. Remember, 71 percent of respondents rated the economy negatively, so it is reasonable to assume a roughly similar majority of the electorate and population as a whole feel that way.

 

Almost all of those who rated the economy negatively, 88 percent, selected “inflation and rising costs of goods and services” as one factor. Another 76 percent answered gas prices; the U.S. Energy Information Association, which updates its figures weekly, puts the national average price of a gallon of unleaded gas at $3.68, and the American Automobile Association, which updates its figures daily, puts it at $3.75. Another 72 percent selected “housing costs” as a reason, and 55 percent answered, “don’t trust the Biden administration.”

 

Economist Justin Wolfers contends there’s a revealing split between people’s perceptions of their own economic condition and the condition of the country: “Ask ’em what they’re doing and they tell an optimistic story. Ask ’em how it’s going, and they tell pessimistic stories.” No doubt there’s something to that, although in any circumstance, half of all Americans will be in an economic condition that is better than the median. There’s nothing inherently contradictory about doing well personally but worrying about economic opportunities for those around you who aren’t as lucky, skilled, or well-situated.

 

In the CBS News poll, responses to questions about people’s personal situation are better, but not overwhelmingly better. When asked, “How would you rate your own personal nancial and economic situation today?” just 9 percent answered, “very good,” 40 percent said fairly good, 28 percent said fairly bad, 16 percent said “very bad,” and 7 percent said they weren’t sure.

 

CBS asked the 44 percent who rated their personal financial situation as “fairly bad” or “bad” why they rated their situation that way. Again, inflation and sticker shock were a nearly universal factor, with 85 percent saying “prices,” 71 percent saying “unable to build savings,” 52 percent saying “don’t have enough to pay bills,” 50 percent saying “housing costs,” and 48 percent answering “debts.”

 

I think there’s a sizable gap between inflation as it is discussed by the professional economists and the way average Americans think about it. The most recent U.S. CPI numbers indicated that the all-items index increased 3 percent over the last twelve months, the smallest twelve-month increase since the period ending March 2021. Most economists would look at that and cheer, focusing on the change in the inflation rate since last year.

 

But that still means that the prices for all goods combined in May 2023 were 3 percent higher than in May 2022, when Americans were reeling from skyrocketing prices. And once you dig deeper into the numbers, the good news is that energy is cheaper than it was in May 2022 — fuel oil is 36.6 percent lower, gasoline is 26.5 percent lower, and used-car prices are 5.2 percent lower. But food consumed at home costs 4.7 percent more in May 2023 than May 2022, food consumed away from home is 7.7 percent higher, new vehicles are 4.1 percent higher, shelter is 7.8 percent higher, and transportation services are 8.2 percent higher.

 

In other words, people go about their economic lives and accurately perceive that a lot of stuff — food, shelter, new cars and other transportation services in particular — is still considerably more expensive than it was last year, which was in turn a lot more expensive than it was the year before that. Economists measure inflation by the change in the rate of increase of prices, while most consumers measure inflation by the change in the prices.

 

Indeed, in that CBS News poll, 69 percent of respondents said that prices on the goods and services that they buy have been going up, while just 6 percent said “going down” and 25 percent said “staying the same.”

 

Americans get constant reminders of how much the cost of living has skyrocketed since the Covid pandemic every time they go to the grocery store, make a run to a big-box store like a Walmart or a Target, fill up their tank, go out to eat on a weekend evening, conclude it’s time to trade in their used car, or need an unexpected home repair. (How many people’s air-conditioning units always seem to break down during a heat wave?)

 

Wage growth doesn’t help anybody if prices rise faster. In fact, the CBS News poll asked respondents directly, “Do you feel like income from your work is or is not keeping up with ination?” Thirty percent said it was keeping up, and 70 percent said it wasn’t.

 

Presidents traditionally get too much credit for a good economy and too much blame for a bad one; this situation has not changed much under Biden. When asked, “How much do you think Joe Biden’s policies are responsible for the current state of the economy?” 44 percent answered “a great deal,” 36 percent said “somewhat,” 15 percent said “not very,” and 5 percent said “not at all.” When asked, “How much do you think Joe Biden’s policies are responsible for your own personal nancial situation?” 26 percent said “a great deal,” 35 percent said “somewhat,” 24 percent said “not very,” and 14 percent said “not at all.” That adds up to 61 percent who think the president has some influence on their personal financial situation.

 

Unsurprisingly, this adds up to an electorate that is unimpressed with the president. Biden’s job approval came in at 40 percent, which is the lowest it has ever been in the CBS News/YouGov survey. His approval of how he’s handling the economy is at 34 percent, which is tied for the lowest it has been since June 2022.

 

There’s one other wrinkle about the cost of living, covered on the front page of the Wall Street Journal today:

 

Double-digit premium hikes. Higher deductibles. New coverage limits. Drones to check the state of roofs and yards.

 

Home insurers are insuring less and charging more as they try to claw their way back to profitability after losing money in five of the past six years, analysts and insurance agents say.

 

“We’re seeing moves to put more of the risk back onto the homeowner, tougher underwriting restrictions and big rate increases,” said Lauren Menuey, a managing director at independent agency Goosehead Insurance.

 

The higher-cost, lower-coverage trend extends well beyond Florida, California and other states prone to hurricanes, floods or wildfires, Menuey added. “I don’t think anywhere is safe from this right now,” she said.

 

How many Americans’ financial circumstances have taken a hit by some home damage or repair that required a much higher payment than they ever expected, because their insurance company won’t cover as much?

 

I am writing this around 8 a.m. on Monday morning. Take a look at Donald Trump’s Truth Social feed. Take a look at Ron DeSantis’s Twitter feed. (Judging from the latest New York Times poll, these two men are still the only serious contenders for the GOP nomination. I’m not telling you how things ought to be, I’m telling you how things are. The New York Times numbers aren’t that different from the rest of the national polling.)

 

Trump is talking a lot about special counsel “Deranged Jack Smith,” his own poll numbers, the Mar-a-Lago security tapes, and his threat to primary Republicans who refuse to impeach President Biden. (Trump’s favorite issue is always himself.) DeSantis is talking about Biden’s border crisis, Kamala Harris’s inaccurate attack on Florida’s history-education standards, government colluding “with big corporations to censor information from the public,” and “elites who wanted to plunge society into lockdown dystopia.”

 

It will not surprise you that I find one set of issues much more resonant and compelling and likely to appeal to a broad swath of the public than the other.

 

But do you see a lot of discussion of inflation and the economy in either of those feeds from Trump and DeSantis?

 

And if not . . . why not?

Grading the Presidential Candidates at the Iowa Republican Party’s Lincoln Dinner

By Rich Lowry

Sunday, July 30, 2023

 

I listened to almost all of the Lincoln Dinner speeches from Friday.

 

One thing that struck me was the amount of policy consensus there was. You could have put almost all the policy issues in a blender (debt, low taxes, China, Bidenomics, the border, U.S. weakness abroad, abortion, men competing in women’s sports, weaponized law enforcement), mixed them up, then evenly distributed them among all the candidates, and the policy mix in the speeches would have largely stayed the same.

 

Also, I liked pretty much all the speeches, so I’m going to grade like a college professor who’s too eager to get good reviews from his students.

 

Trump: A- (or D, depending on your standard)

 

A “D” would be appropriate if you minded the rank pandering, the ridiculous account of the trade war with China and how it supposedly benefited U.S. farmers, election denialism, and the reading of poll results. That, though, would make you different from most Republican voters.

 

Trump is not at his strongest working from a script in a short format. Still, he was Trump, so naturally he got a huge reaction.

 

Regarding the pandering: He’s always been blatant in his appeal to whomever he’s trying to win over, and it usually works. He has also always read from polls, but in this case they are relevant, since part of the argument against him is that he’d lose to Biden in a general. He was at his strongest drawing the contrast in results between how Biden campaigned and how he has governed.

 

As always, he filled the stage. He felt a little like the incumbent president who’d done everyone the favor of showing up at a small-time event.

 

DeSantis: B+

 

He was energetic and spoke with conviction. He also showed signs of widening out his message. He talked more about economics and put that up front in his remarks. That’s all to the good. His core argument that Republicans need to get it done in 2024 and he’s the one to do it is cogent and remains plausible.

 

I think he’d really benefit, though, from having a truly accomplished speechwriter write a big set speech for him at some point, and then, as he campaigns, he can draw on it for riffs and lines that suit him and integrate them into remarks in his own voice. As it is, his attempts at humor at the beginning of his speeches are always flat and his attempted rhetorical flights at the end are always a bunch of jammed-together clichés. It’d be easy to bring the oratory to a higher level — and put his message in an even better light — without being inauthentic. Why not do it?

 

Tim Scott: B+

 

The senator understands the power of story-telling, and has a lot of good ones to tell. He’s still in the introducing-himself-to-people stage and has done a good job of it, this speech included. But what makes his message distinctive, besides the cheerfulness? Plus, he really needs to flesh out his policy positions to avoid the sense that his campaign is all about his personal story.

 

Getting people to like him is a great foundation for growth, and he’s already been ticking upwards. He can’t rely on that alone to get him to the next level, though.

 

Vivek Ramaswamy: A-

 

He’s a very adept speaker, fluid and pointed. He talks about first principles compellingly. The way he used the American Revolution to make the case for a MAGA message, though, was a little hard to take, as well as his retreated references to the end of his second term in January 2033. The brief reference to what really happened on January 6 was noxious. And his juxtaposition of reform — what the sell-outs favor — and revolution — what he’ll supposedly bring — was over the top. Still, he helped himself and I’d still be surprised if he doesn’t have a moment and become a bigger problem for DeSantis, Scott, or someone else.

 

Some other observations:

 

Mike Pence — He delivered a classic social-conservative message, and, as usual, was earnest and sincere. He deserves better than he’s getting so far from Republican voters.

Doug Burgum —He made a real nice pitch for himself. He represents the opposite end of the spectrum from DeSantis, at least to this point, though — completely neglecting the culture.

Nikki Haley — Everything she said was great, but she has the same problem as Tim Scott — what’s distinct?

Sunday, July 30, 2023

The New Right Is Neither New nor Right

By Jonah Goldberg

Friday, July 28, 2023

 

“We’re seeing a conservatism that emphasizes freedom give way to a conservatism that emphasizes authority,” a prominent, albeit somewhat heretical, conservative wrote a while ago. “For a hundred years we debated the economic reach of the state, but that debate’s basically done. The next one will be over where the state should erect guardrails in a mobile and fragmented world.”

 

In another column he wrote about the need to strengthen the state to combat new concentrations of corporate power and to promote a new standard of American “greatness.” Teddy Roosevelt was the lodestar for this new rethinking. 

 

Roosevelt believed that the problem of corporate power made a lot of free market arguments obsolete or at least unsuited to the times. This unorthodox conservative quoted Teddy Roosevelt favorably: “Every new social relation begets a new type of wrongdoing—of sin, to use an old-fashioned word—and many years always elapse before society is able to turn this sin into a crime which can be effectively punished by law.”

 

I should say this writer was hardly alone. He was joined by a host of intellectuals and activists—and some powerful politicians—who rejected the old Buckleyite formulation of “standing athwart history, yelling Stop!” Government needs to move. Government needs to be strong, even if that opens you up to complaints that you’re making government bigger. Size, by itself, doesn’t actually matter. These mavericks wanted to conceive of a new idea about government that drew deeply on Lincoln’s war powers and the zeal of the progressives at the beginning of the 20th century. 

 

So who am I talking about? 

 

Well, David Brooks of course. And Bill Kristol. Oh, and George W. Bush and Sen. John McCain. As a candidate in 2000, McCain ran to Bush’s left as a “Bull Moose” Republican. 

 

In 2003, Fred Barnes wrote a piece for the Wall Street Journal explaining that President Bush was a “Big Government conservative” (Bush preferred “strong government conservative”). Bush rejected the Buckleyite approach, saying that conservatives needed to be “activists” and “lead.” So Bush and his “neoconservative” stalwarts were committed to “using what would normally be seen as liberal means—activist government—for conservative ends.” 

 

In some ways, they were playing catch-up to Newt Gingrich, who spent much of the 1990s arguing for a revivalism of the spirit of the Progressive Era to “transform” government. Lamar Alexander issued a book that promised to follow in the spirit of Herbert Croly (the godfather of progressivism whose book, The Promise of American Life, radicalized Teddy Roosevelt). The title of Alexander’s opus was The New Promise of American Life.

 

Now, I had some big problems with this stuff back in the day. I excoriated Bush’s expansion of government and big spending, and harshly criticized this nostalgia for progressivism. But I don’t bring this up to criticize those guys. Not all of their arguments were bad and many of their goals were good. Bush, to his credit, wanted to use the power of government to improve the choices of citizens in an “ownership society” and to hold government more accountable. Depending on the specifics, I can get behind that. 

 

I bring it up instead to note a few things. First, the irony of all of these New Right table thumpers—who, I think it’s fair to say, for the most part loathe Bush, McCain, Brooks, Kristol, “neocons,” et al.—aren’t even making new arguments on the timescale of relatively recent memory. I mean, Bush was the last Republican president before Trump and John McCain was the GOP nominee in 2008. 

 

Second, as I’ve often argued, a lot of the New Right stuff is less about principles or ideals or policies, and more about factional infighting and the desperate effort to climb to the top of the greasy pole of power. According to internal tribal rules, the last thing any of these people can do is begin a sentence, “As David Brooks brilliantly demonstrated …” They see those guys as icons of the old establishment they want to replace. So they pretend these debates never happened (or in some cases they don’t pretend, because they have the historical memory of gnats). 

 

And of course, as you move deeper into the swampier parts of the New Right, you can’t credit “neoconservatives” with anything because they’re Jooooooooz. 

 

Putting aside the issue of antisemitic and racist goons (of which there were many among leading progressives), and the unavoidable tendency of factions to instrumentally appropriate ideas that will given them political advantages in intrafactional squabbles, one of the main reasons for this convergence is that we simply live in a world defined by progressive assumptions about the role of the state. Before some nationalists respond, “Yes, and that’s the problem. We must reject these progressive assumptions,” let me just point out that American progressivism was deeply nationalist, and not just Teddy Roosevelt’s version. 

 

In 2006, I wrote:

 

Why has this happened? The answer is that we live in a progressive world. If you live in Japan, you’ll be hard-pressed to persuade people of anything if you don’t speak Japanese or understand the culture. Similarly, conservatives must speak the language of progressivism in order to persuade progressives that they are wrong. The danger in this is that you can go native. John Blackthorne in James Clavell’s Shogun becomes more Japanese than many Japanese people. So, too, conservatives can end up more progressive than the progressives.

 

Timeless until inconvenient.

 

I got to thinking about this because a friend sent me this piece by David Azerrad for a symposium in The American Conservative. Azerrad begins:

 

What is conservatism in America today? It’s hundreds of millions of dollars a year spent fiddling while Rome burns. It’s ideas with little to no consequence. It’s getting trampled all over by History, but while yelling Stop!

 

Conservatism is the seven cheers for capitalism and the deafening silence on demographic change, feminism, and corporate malfeasance. It’s the same tired cast of speakers blathering about limited government almost a century after the New Deal. It’s the platitudinous Reagan quotes and the worn-out Buckley anecdotes. It’s the mindless optimism and the childish exhortations—if something can’t go on forever, it won’t!

 

If it were only that, conservatism would simply be a harmless persuasion for nostalgic Baby Boomers. Or to be more generous, one big Benedict Option to offer a semblance of an alternative to the pervasive progressivism of our age.

 

He goes on railing and wailing about people—well, like me (though I am not named)—who are cowards and free trade fetishists, as well as the “foolish libertarianism that hates the government more than it loves America.”

 

We the “court eunuchs and other members of the controlled opposition” live in fear of being called racists. 

 

And so on. 

 

Now, I think the whole essay is self-congratulatory grandstanding nonsense in nearly every regard. But I’m grateful for it because it’s so illustrative. The “manly” New Right is “counter-revolutionary” and “understands not just ideas, but power,” he explains. What intellectual dissidents there are in the old right are “drowned out by those of the conservative establishment.” Someone has got to point out this conservative establishment at some point, because this strikes me as straw-manning for the benefit of some hotheads in a dorm room. 

 

Of course, there are no new ideas here. None. It’s all atmospherics and chest thumping about how they’re fighters who fight the way the left does. The only figure quoted by name is Patrick Buchanan, who didn’t offer any new ideas (he at least admitted his ideas were old) but said some stirring things about fighting. 

 

I’ve met Azerrad a few times and got along with him just fine back when he was at the Heritage Foundation. But one of the reasons I got along with him—other than the fact he was a fairly personable guy (as befits a Canadian)—was that his old routine was to talk a lot about “timeless principles.”

 

“The Framers may be dead and gone, but their timeless principles endure,” he wrote. He excoriated Barack Obama for his novel reinterpretations of the Constitution on the simple basis that “times change.” Those principles, as he explained at length over the years, were about limited government, free markets, etc. 

 

Now that it’s a “century” after the New Deal (more like 90 years, but whatever), talking about limited government is cowardly folly, the stuff of craven eunuchs and corrupt buffoons. The cause is lost, so we must become like the left and use the state for our purposes. 

 

Was the cause not lost when the New Deal was a mere 75 years old? What happened in the last 15 years that made it futile to fight for … checks notes … timeless principles?

 

Now, I understand that Azerrad will likely claim he and his fellow counterrevolutionaries are fighting to restore those timeless principles—or some such pabulum—once they get behind the wheel of the state. But that is wildly unpersuasive given the scorn he has for people who still talk about limited government and free markets. It’s also unpersuasive given how many of his confreres heap scorn on those timeless principles and the documents and thinkers that elucidate them. You can say I’m letting the bad apples define the New Right barrel, but Azerad is the one denouncing criticism of “enemies to the right.” This presupposes that everyone who likes capitalism and limited government is somehow to his left—which makes it fine to call them cowards and eunuchs. But complaining about protectionists, living constitutionalists, and other statists of the right is a corrupt violation of this new popular front that he wants. 

 

But David knows his intellectual history. He knows that his definition of conservatism here is wholly contestable and he would have contested it a decade ago. 

 

The irony here is that less than a generation ago, the idea that you could adopt liberal (i.e., statist) means for conservative ends was precisely the sort of idea that aroused so much condemnation of “big government” and “compassionate” conservatism from the right. It was, in some quarters, even proof that the perfidious neoconservatives (which etymologically kind of means “new right”) were secretly closet Trotskyists. 

 

The important point is that the whole argument about “timeless principles” wasn’t to say that they would always endure, but that they were, axiomatically, timelessly correct and therefore timelessly worth fighting for. David’s position now is that it’s cowardly to keep fighting for them when the new priority is to fight for power as its own reward. Crushing your enemies—not persuading them—is another booby prize. 

 

The idea that the Progressive Era and the New Deal did lasting damage to the application of those timeless principles is hardly new—some of his colleagues at Hillsdale have been making that argument for decades. What is new is the idea that surrender is the new courage, and timeless principles can be checked at the door if that’s coverage charge for power.

Après Mitch, Le Déluge

By Nick Catoggio

Friday, July 28, 2023

 

There are two ways to read Americans’ minds moment to moment. One is to develop psychic abilities. For the rest of us, there’s Google Trends.

 

That site reveals that on Thursday Americans were thinking about exactly what you’d expect them to be thinking about. The Women’s World Cup. The most amazing baseball player to ever don a uniform.

 

And Dianne Feinstein.

 

There are precious few reasons why a 90-year-old U.S. senator might suddenly occupy a prominent place in the public imagination, none of them happy. Fortunately, Feinstein is alive. Unfortunately, “alive and well” would be a stretch.

 

It would be nice if we could chalk that up to one bad moment, the sort to which any 90-year-old is occasionally entitled. We cannot. As has become increasingly and grimly clear, the bad moments for Dianne Feinstein appear to outnumber the good ones nowadays.

 

The word “gerontocracy” was also hot on Google Trends this week, The Intercept pointed out. But it wasn’t Feinstein’s confusion that sent that term skyrocketing. It was something even scarier, physically and politically.



McConnell returned to the podium after a few minutes’ absence and took questions from reporters to prove that whatever had just happened had passed. When Joe Biden called to wish him well, Mitch joked with him about having been “sandbagged,” a reference to one of the president’s own recent senior moments. Everything was fine, it seemed—emphasis on “seemed.”

 

Senate Republicans whispered to reporters afterward that the minority leader isn’t the man he was before a concussion caused by a nasty fall knocked him out of commission earlier this year. One senator “who considers [himself] a McConnell ally,” in NBC’s phrasing, told the network that his decline is apparent behind the scenes.

 

“I kind of do” think he should step down, said the senator, who added that the “murmurings” about his future are inevitable. “I’d hate to see it forced on him. You can do these things with dignity, or it becomes less dignified. And I hope he does it in a dignified way—for his own legacy and reputation.”

 

The senator said they have noticed that McConnell doesn’t speak or answer questions from members as often as he used to in their weekly GOP closed-door lunches, with two of his top lieutenants—Minority Whip John Thune, R-S.D., and Conference Chair John Barrasso, R-Wyo.—stepping in more often.

 

“People think that he’s not hearing well,” the senator said. “I think that he is just not processing.”

 

Another senator observed that McConnell is “definitely slower with his gait” lately; the New York Times claims that he’s taken to using a wheelchair at the airport. The Times also reports that some of his colleagues in the Senate were surprised to see him leave debt-ceiling negotiations to Chuck Schumer and Kevin McCarthy instead of taking a more proactive role. That had looked to be a strategic decision aimed at not alienating House Republicans. After this week’s episode, one wonders if the Senate minority leader simply wasn’t equal to the task.

 

For a traditional conservative, watching Mitch McConnell short-circuit on camera in real time felt vaguely like driving across a suspension bridge and seeing the cables on either side of you start to snap. No politician is indispensable, but if you’re unenthused about the current direction of the GOP, the thought of where it might go once its most formidable institutional pillar crumbles is a dark one.

 

One cheer for gerontocracy, then?

 

***

 

Public anxiety about McConnell and Feinstein isn’t happening in a vacuum. There’s an elephant in the room, of course, as Americans are reminded almost daily.

 

Biden’s likely opponent next fall is just a few years younger than he is. And given Donald Trump’s hold on the Republican Party, it’s possible Sleepy Joe won’t be the last octogenarian nominated for president this decade.

 

The two party leaders embody the two types of elderly incompetence. Biden is an obvious case of having “lost a step”—or several steps, if we’re honest. McConnell has also recently lost one. Dianne Feinstein seems to have lost a marathon’s worth. The other type of incompetence is what we might delicately call “eccentricity,” when a senior’s mental energy remains high but their personality begins to, ahem, intensify. That would be Trump, or Rudy Giuliani. Or any political barnacle over the age of 70 whom one might find taking selfies at Mar-a-Lago.

 

Senility and insanity, two suboptimal traits in national leadership. We are right to disdain gerontocracy.

 

We’re right to disdain it for another reason: Gerontocracy breeds secrecy and secrecy breeds distrust. And America already has a worrisome and deepening problem with its people not trusting its institutions.

 

Not until this week did we learn that the fall that knocked Mitch McConnell out of the Senate for many weeks wasn’t the only spill he’s taken this year. Two weeks ago he face-planted while getting off a plane in Washington. Before that, during a visit in February to Helsinki to meet Finland’s president, he tripped while exiting a car. As for Dianne Feinstein, the truth about why she was absent from the chamber for months turned out to be more complicated than we knew: Her case of shingles afflicted her with encephalitis in March and later caused her to develop Ramsay Hunt syndrome, which involves “vision and balance impairments.” The public wasn’t informed of that until May.

 

And Donald Trump? He claims he has nothing to hide. (Doesn’t he always.) But after his private goons barged into his doctor’s office and confiscated his medical records in February 2017, there’s room for a sliver of doubt.

 

Political leaders are naturally averse to showing physical weakness, not wanting to trigger a succession crisis that might cost them power, but the lengths to which a gerontocracy will go to keep propping them up can be morally repellent. Despite obviously being unfit for duty, Feinstein was forced to return to the Senate by the fact that Republicans wouldn’t allow Chuck Schumer to replace her on the Judiciary Committee. Without Feinstein’s vote Democrats couldn’t move judicial nominees, so they concluded that their only option was the Weekend at Dianne’s spectacle seen in the clip up above.

 

McConnell and Feinstein are old even by the exalted standards of Congress, but American government will still be very much a gerontocracy after they’ve retired. Via the Washington Post:



Americans born between 1928 and 1964 (the “silent” and “baby boomer” generations) make up slightly more than a quarter of the population but slightly more than half of the federal legislature. That’s not altogether bad: One reason Congress is much older than it was decades ago is because Americans now live much longer than they did decades ago. Advanced medicine has intervened to prevent Mother Nature from reliably resupplying the government with fresh faces.

 

Not altogether bad, as I say—but not altogether good either. Fresh faces bring fresh thinking, and America desperately needs fresh thinking in politics. Right?

 

Sure. In theory. Until you remember what sort of not-actually-fresh “fresh thinking” the Trumpist GOP is enamored with nowadays.

 

***

 

Mitch McConnell is the longest-serving Senate leader in U.S. history. He took his seat in the chamber a few weeks before Ronald Reagan was sworn in for his second term and has run the GOP caucus since before Barack Obama became president. Right-wing populists have despised him as the consummate go-along-to-get-along Washington establishmentarian since the dawn of the Tea Party era. Democrats have despised him for much longer, and with remarkable intensity since he blocked Obama’s attempt to fill Antonin Scalia’s vacancy on the Supreme Court.

 

Everyone hates Mitch, yet no one has laid a glove on him electorally for decades apart from a scare in the Democratic wave year of 2008. Despite both the left and the far right perpetually gunning for him, he’s managed to win his last two primaries with 60 percent of the vote or better and his last two general elections with 56 percent or so. Since 2017 he’s defied Donald Trump on ending the filibuster, by blaming him for January 6, and by repeatedly brokering numerous bipartisan legislative deals with the Biden White House. Apart from a bunch of whining about it on Steve Bannon’s podcast, he’s paid no price for any of it.

 

Having made a mortal enemy of the right’s cult leader, his leadership over an outfit as powerful as the Senate Republican caucus nonetheless remains unchallenged in any serious way. I can’t think of another figure in the party who’s managed that trick.

 

I don’t mean to lionize him. His failure to convict and disqualify Trump at his second impeachment trial was an act of moral and civic cowardice he’ll never live down. The GOP will spend years paying for it, as it should. But the fact remains: He’s the Senate’s foremost institutionalist, the most influential Reagan Republican in the country by a longshot, and a politician sufficiently shrewd and ruthless to have built an electoral fortress even MAGA populists haven’t managed to breach. (So far.) If you hate what the GOP has become and is yet becoming, the fact that McConnell is still around to keep Congress’ most feral populists in check is a constant relief.

 

He won’t be around much longer, one way or another.

 

His three likeliest successors as leader—the “three Johns,” Thune, Cornyn, and Barrasso—are all traditional conservatives who entered the Senate long before Trump entered politics, which is also a relief. Less reassuring is that there’s no good reason to think any of them would be as politically resilient as McConnell if they became minority leader and landed in MAGA’s crosshairs. Trump already has it in for Thune, remember, although he didn’t put much energy into defeating the senator in his reelection bid last year. Cornyn can’t show up to a convention of Texas Republicans without being roundly booed. And Barrasso represents Wyoming, where a very hard lesson was taught recently about what happens to those who cross Donald Trump.

 

None of them enjoys the respect McConnell does as an operator or fundraiser. None has developed as many relationships within the party as McConnell has, having joined the Senate much later than he did. None, obviously, is entrenched in leadership the way McConnell is. And so none will inspire the same degree of fear in the Trumpist wing of the Senate Republican caucus, which makes the future of compromise in the chamber … unpredictable. And the White House knows it. It wasn’t just compassion that led Joe Biden to nervously inquire about McConnell’s health this week.

 

If Donald Trump is reelected president in 2024 and demands that the new GOP majority in the Senate immediately end the filibuster so that he can move his MAGA agenda, will Majority Leader John Thune have the nerve to stare him down? That’s one question we’ll need to confront if and when Mitch retires.

 

Another, relatedly: How many aging Republican holdovers from the pre-Trump era will also choose to depart the Senate in the next year or two, expecting that the possible return of Trump coupled with the end of McConnell’s leadership will make the business of government intolerable? Mitt Romney is up for reelection, I’ll remind you. So is Barrasso. Should they decide to step down, what sort of unsavory characters will prevail in their state’s Republican primaries and end up succeeding them in the Senate?

 

Out of curiosity, I looked up who the youngest members of Congress are. Of the eight youngest senators, it turns out six are Republicans. Two, Josh Hawley and J.D. Vance, are the most ardent nationalist ideologues in the caucus while Markwayne Mullin, Eric Schmitt, and Tom Cotton are each exceedingly MAGA-friendly. In the House, the youngest cohort includes populist bombthrowers like Lauren Boebert, Anna Paulina Luna, and, uh, George Santos. Max Miller, all of 34 years old, has gone from being a crony in the Trump White House given to calling his then-boss the greatest president ever to representing Ohio’s 7th District. Elise Stefanik, arguably the grandest sellout to Trumpism in the entire party, is already a high-ranking member of leadership and won’t turn 40 until next year.

 

Santos and hopefully Boebert will be out of a job by 2025 but there’s every reason to think the rest will be haunting the Capitol for years. This is what the new generation of Republicans looks like. This is who the McConnells of the Senate will give way to.

 

And in a few years, even the Hawleys and Vances might look like responsible actors relative to the current Republican farm team.

 

Yesterday I noted Ron DeSantis’ misfortune in having briefly hired and then fired 25-year-old Nate Hochman, a young writer superficially mainstream enough to have written for National Review (and interned at The Dispatch) who somehow keeps stumbling into controversies that make him sound alt-right. He isn’t the only DeSantis hanger-on with that problem: Pro-Ron “influencer” Pedro Gonzalez recently had some of his old private texts leaked that included bon mots like “not every Jew is problematic, but the sad fact is that most are.” Fellow DeSantis “influencers” responded by dutifully rallying to his side, of course. Loyalty über alles.

 

“There’s a lot of young Republican staffers working in the ‘New Right’ ecosystem that will be headaches for Republicans in the next few years just like Hochman is now for DeSantis,” one savvy campaign finance expert tweeted this week. “Brains poisoned by the toxic alt-right online scene. He’s a harbinger of what’s to come.” Indeed he is. If you have any hope left for the next generation of the American right, I encourage you to read up on the New York Young Republican Club—including and especially their own words, which cannot be topped for vivid insight into their “thinking.”

 

This is what’s coming. Given the squalid state of presidential primary polls and of right-wing media, there’s zero cause to believe things will get better in Republican politics rather than worse. “We need Mitch to live forever” is not, alas, a serious plan for political improvement.

 

Ross Douthat once answered progressive grumbling about social conservatives by warning them: If you don’t like the Christian right, wait until you see the post-Christian right. That sentiment works equally well for the sooner-or-later-ish departure of Mitch McConnell. If you didn’t like McConnell’s GOP, wait until you see the post-McConnell GOP.

 

One cheer for gerontocracy, then. On that note, have a happy weekend.