By Michael Warren
Tuesday, July 22, 2025
If you work for Donald Trump and fall out of the
president’s good graces, there’s one surefire way to get back in his favor:
Make a big stink about how he’s been treated unfairly, preferably by rehashing
one of his favorite theories of persecution.
That’s exactly what Tulsi Gabbard, the director of
national intelligence who’s been
in the doghouse for weeks, did on Friday. The headline of a July 18 press
release from her office said it all: “New Evidence of Obama Administration
Conspiracy to Subvert President Trump’s 2016 Victory and Presidency.” Gabbard’s
conclusion was that “President Obama and his national security cabinet members
manufactured and politicized intelligence to lay the groundwork for what was
essentially a years-long coup against President Trump.”
This is Gabbard’s case in brief: The government’s
intelligence community assessed prior to the 2016 election that Russia did not
have the capability to “hack” the
election and alter its outcome, but once Trump was elected, and under the
direction of Obama himself, then-DNI James Clapper issued a
politicized intelligence assessment that falsely concluded Russia had meddled
in the election to boost Trump’s campaign. According to Gabbard, every effort
to “delegitimize” Trump’s first presidency, from the Mueller investigation to
both of his impeachments, can be traced to this “treasonous
conspiracy.” And armed with a raft of declassified emails and internal
reports, she promised
to refer this supposedly new information to the Justice Department for possible
prosecution.
It’s a neat story—politicized intelligence! Russia,
Russia, Russia! criminal referrals for Obama officials!—designed to appeal to
Trump himself, and it has. Since Gabbard’s announcement, the president has posted
about
her
press release on his
Truth Social account
over
a dozen
times,
including multiple
videos
of Gabbard
speaking
about
the subject
on Fox
News. (And after nearly two weeks of wall-to-wall “Epstein
files” coverage, a Russiagate revival was just what Dr. Trump ordered.)
The problem is that none of Gabbard’s claims and
purported evidence provide anything new to our knowledge of what Russia did and
didn’t do in 2016. Friday’s announcement adds nothing to the conclusions from the 2023 report by
special counsel John Durham, whose years-long probe determined that the FBI
had a confirmation bias, not a political bias, when it pursued its
investigation of a possible connection between the Trump campaign and Russia.
But the imprecise wording and rhetorical sleight of hand
in Gabbard’s press release do quite a lot to mislead people about the facts, as
voices as disparate as Democratic
members of Congress and National Review’s Andrew
McCarthy generally agree. Gabbard’s broad conclusion—that the Obama
intelligence apparatus cooked up its assertion that Russia interfered on behalf
of Trump in the 2016 election—just isn’t true. And her claim that it laid the
groundwork for unrelated events like Trump’s second impeachment following the
riot at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, is just absurd.
Gabbard conveniently conflates two different factual
questions around Russian interference in the 2016 election in order to
illustrate that Obama politicized intelligence findings. The first is whether
Russia tried to alter the outcome of the presidential race by hacking America’s
voting machines or databases of tabulated votes. The second is whether Russia
attempted to interfere in the presidential campaign through cyber espionage and
online influence campaigns. But despite what Gabbard has
claimed, the Obama administration did not contradict the intelligence
community’s finding on the former question when Clapper published
his intelligence assessment in January 2017 on the latter. It can be true
that Russia did not hack into voting machines but did hack into the emails of
high-ranking Democratic officials to leak embarrassing information.
And that is, in fact, the truth. As special counsel
Robert Mueller concluded,
while there was no coordination between Russia and the Trump campaign, the
Russian government was behind the hacks of Clinton campaign officials and
others. In addition, a Russian-backed company did wage an online effort to
attack Clinton’s campaign and support Trump’s. None of these conclusions depend
on the infamous Steele dossier containing false information about Trump nor the
unproven claim that Trump’s campaign colluded with the Russians.
Of course, it’s been the position of Trump partisans for
years that Russia was not involved at all in the 2016 election and that the
idea Russia sought to hurt Clinton and help Trump is a “hoax.” Gabbard’s is
merely the latest contribution to the canon, and it’s likely to give her some
job security despite being increasingly at odds with Trump on some of his
recent foreign policy decisions.
Even before the president’s successful strike on Iranian
nuclear facilities last month, Gabbard has been largely
iced out, sometimes due to her own actions. She was absent from a
pre-strike strategy meeting at Camp David and, despite being
in the White House Situation Room during the strike, was left
out of the initial round of photos released to the media.
And while Trump last month told
reporters that he did not care about Gabbard’s previous public testimony
before Congress that Iran was not close to building a nuclear weapon, I’m told
he has also fumed in private about her office’s assessment that Iran was
willing to negotiate with the U.S. over its nuclear weapons program. Once it
became clear Iran was
not operating in good faith, it was easier for Trump to reach the decision
to order the strike on the three Iranian nuclear facilities.
All of that seemed to place Gabbard on the outer rim of
Trump’s circle while John Ratcliffe, the CIA director, has been relatively more
popular in the West Wing. Interestingly, Ratcliffe has also recently
issued an evaluation of the same post-2016 intelligence assessment, a
“lessons-learned review” released to the public on June 26. While Ratcliffe’s
report offers plenty of criticisms of the Obama team’s intelligence analysis
process, it does not contradict what Clapper’s assessment and the Mueller
report both concluded about Russia’s attempts to manipulate American public
opinion to undermine Clinton’s campaign.
That didn’t stop Ratcliffe, as Gabbard has done, from exaggerating the
findings of his report by claiming they exposed the Obama officials as
corrupt. For two of the country’s top intelligence officials, there is an
audience of one, and they know exactly what he wants to hear.
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