By Noah Rothman
Monday, July 28, 2025
There’s still time for former Vice President Kamala
Harris to beg off a run to succeed Gavin Newsom in California’s governor’s
mansion. As such, it’s hard to assess the degree to which Harris skeptics in
the Golden State are genuinely terrified by her flirtations with a
gubernatorial bid or whether they’re exaggerating their trepidation to convince
her to recalibrate her ambitions. Either way, California Democrats are rubbing
their temples today.
As CNN’s Edward-Isaac Dovere reported, even her critics
confess that Harris “would be a favorite to win the governor’s race” in
“deep-blue” California — an observation that admits her victory would be
attributable less to her political acumen than California voters’ bovine
insouciance, upon which local Democratic office seekers have come to rely.
And yet, Harris will still “have to answer for former
President Joe Biden” and her role in the failed but nevertheless attempted
coverup of his deteriorating condition. In addition, “possible ambivalence
about her candidacy could hurt Democratic chances in swing districts.” If her
candidacy fails to “generate enthusiasm” among Democrats while irritating and,
thus, activating Republican voters, Harris could get herself elected while
still serving as a net negative for her party.
“She comes in with baggage,” one unnamed state-level
Democratic lawmaker told Dovere. “I think it would only fire up Republicans and
hurt our ability to win the four to five seats that we need to win to win the
House and hold on to three seats that we just flipped in 2024.” Indeed,
Harris’s political star has faded to such an extent that Dovere didn’t have to
rely on anonymous quotes from cowed California Democrats. Some even bashed her
on the record.
“Once you’re the vice president of the United States,
there’s only one place to go. It’s president,” said Representative Jimmy Gomez.
“For me, if I was vice president and, all of a sudden, I lose, it would be a
fallback to me. I hate to put it so bluntly.”
Even if these brushback pitches are part of a campaign of
elementary psychological manipulation, which is insulting enough, the rebukes
Harris has received from her fellow Democrats for being a drag on Democratic
prospects generally are especially ruthless. After all, much the same could
have been said of Barack Obama.
When the 44th president took office in 2009, his party
controlled 257 House seats, 57 seats in the Senate, 28 governorships, and 62 of
the country’s 99 state legislative chambers. By January 2017, the GOP had
reduced the party’s footprint to just 194 House members, 46 senators, 17
governors, and 29 state-level legislatures. Over his tenure, Obama presided
over the loss of nearly 1,000 Democratic lawmakers. The president himself
acknowledged the scale of this down-ballot disaster and attempted to reverse it
by making 150 endorsements at the state legislative level. Not that
his intervention helped matters. Republicans picked up control of two more
chambers on Election Night in 2016.
To this day, few Democrats are willing to acknowledge
that the star power Obama commanded for himself did not translate into lasting
political power for his party. That omertà persists along with Obama’s personal
celebrity. He remains, after all, a strong Democratic fundraiser, and the
party’s partisans still regard his tenure in the Oval Office warmly.
Harris has been denied these dispensations. Her tenure at
the Naval Observatory under Biden is nowhere near as well-regarded, perhaps
because Harris commands no celebrity, and the effort to fabricate a cult of
personality around her was such
an obvious contrivance that it exploded on the launch pad.
In the absence of any measurable charisma and given that
her candidacy comes with notable risks to the party’s overall political
position, California Democrats are liberated. They don’t feel obliged to
pretend as though she’s the answer to their problems. Indeed, they tacitly
concede, Harris may be indicative of the party’s problems.
This level of candor and rationality is rare in a party
that so frequently buys its own manufactured hype. That says a lot about
Democrats, but it says even more about Harris.
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