Thursday, May 29, 2025

The Sudden End to Tariffs and the TACO Trade

By Jim Geraghty

Thursday, May 29, 2025

 

Go figure, it turns out the president of the United States cannot rewrite U.S. trade policies and enact sweeping new tariffs on a whim.

 

I can hear someone out there objecting to the characterization of Trump’s trade policies being set by whims or what mood he’s in. But as this newsletter noted earlier, the tariff rate on goods from China has changed six times in less than 115 days. Trump’s presidency has featured at least eight major tariff announcements, and at least 55 tariff changes in those 115 days, but it’s hard to get a precise number, because many tariff announcements were made, then paused, reversed, or modified within days or weeks. The tariff tracker page over at Reed Smith gets longer and longer.

 

This past week brought a vivid example of Trump’s erratic thinking and rapid changes in policy. On Friday, May 23, President Trump announced he was “recommending a straight 50 percent tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1,” and added during an appearance in the Oval Office, “I’m not looking for a deal. I mean, we’ve set the deal, it’s at 50 percent.”

 

Then on Sunday evening, Trump announced on Truth Social, “I received a call today from Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, requesting an extension on the June 1st deadline on the 50 percent Tariff with respect to Trade and the European Union. I agreed to the extension — July 9, 2025 — It was my privilege to do so.”

 

Within two days, a 50 percent tariff on EU goods appeared and disappeared, at least temporarily. Even Matt Gaetz hung around longer.

 

Our Charlie Cooke has been trying to get anyone to listen that this is not how the U.S. government is supposed to work under our Constitution; you may remember this little spat we had with the British in the 1700s about whether the United States should have a monarch who unilaterally sets policy. Charlie, back on March 4:

 

A reminder: Congress can stop this right now. Literally right now. Today. This morning. Before lunch. In a matter of hours. The Constitution gives absolute control over tariffs to Congress. As such, any power that the president enjoys must be delegated. With one bill — passed by veto-proof majorities — Congress could take back some (or all) of that power.

 

The law that President Trump is using to cause such havoc is known as IEEPA. It’s supposed to be for emergencies, but, given that it gives the president free rein to determine when an emergency is in force, it’s effectively a non-justiciable enabling act. Congress can repeal it, amend it, or pass a separate law that supersedes it, and there’s nothing that anybody can do to stop it. Such a law could exempt Canada and Mexico from its provisions, or make clear that other tariff deals involving those countries (like the one Trump signed in 2019) have precedence, or do anything else that Congress wants it to do, because — again! — Congress has plenary power over tariffs. Heck, if Congress passed a law that simply read, “All delegation of the legislature’s Article I, Section 8 tariff powers is hereby rescinded,” that would immediately be the law of the land.

 

I understand that Congress does not want to do this because, despite their protestations when their guy is out of power, both parties like the imperial presidency. But that approach is dumb, shortsighted, and, in this case, obviously illegal under a plain reading of the Constitution. . . .

 

Written law yields both stability and comprehension. Written law that, once established, can only be changed by the acquiescence of lots and lots of people aids those ends yet further. The last thing you want when dealing with regulation, tax rates, tariffs, or anything else of that sort is to wake up one morning and discover that all the rules have been changed on a whim. Because their power is vested in one person, presidents can do that. Because its power is vested in 535 people, Congress cannot.

 

There are a whole bunch of shortsighted Americans who want the president to have pretty much unlimited power — as long as the guy in the Oval Office is a guy they agree with, that is — and who never bothers to think what this country would be like if a guy they didn’t agree with had that same unlimited power they envision. If you hate the existing system of checks and balances in our Constitution, you might be an American in your citizenship, but you’re not really much of an American in your thinking.

 

Unsurprisingly, the U.S. Court of International Trade concurs with Charlie. As our James Lynch reports:

 

The Court of International Trade struck down Trump’s wide-ranging “liberation day” tariffs enacted last month and other tariffs he placed earlier in his term, a blow to one of the central pillars of Trump’s policy agenda as he attempts to use tariffs as leverage in various negotiations.

 

“The question in the two cases before the court is whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (‘IEEPA’) delegates these powers to the President in the form of authority to impose unlimited tariffs on goods from nearly every country in the world. The court does not read IEEPA to confer such unbounded authority and sets aside the challenged tariffs imposed thereunder,” the court said.

 

“The court holds for the foregoing reasons that IEEPA does not authorize any of the Worldwide, Retaliatory, or Trafficking Tariff Orders. The Worldwide and Retaliatory Tariff Orders exceed any authority granted to the President by IEEPA to regulate importation by means of tariffs. The Trafficking Tariffs fail because they do not deal with the threats set forth in those orders,” the New York–based court added.

 

“The challenged Tariff Orders will be vacated and their operation permanently enjoined.”

 

The case was filed by the Liberty Justice Center and George Mason University professor Ilya Somin on behalf of five U.S. businesses harmed by the tariffs. The decision was unanimous; as Somin noted, “It is worth noting that the panel include judges appointed by both Republican and Democratic presidents, including one (Judge Reif) appointed by Trump, one appointed by Reagan (Judge Restani), and one by Obama (Judge Katzmann).”

 

Somin wrote, “From the very beginning, I have contended that the virtually limitless nature of the authority claimed by Trump is a key reason why courts must strike down the tariffs. . . . I am glad to see the CIT judges agreed with our argument on this point!”

 

On X, Trump adviser Stephen Miller fumed, “The judicial coup is out of control.” But this sort of situation is exactly why the U.S. has a Court of International Trade, established under Article III of the Constitution. The court has nationwide jurisdiction over civil actions arising out of the customs and international trade laws of the United States. The court’s stated mission is to provide “independent, consistent, fair, and impartial interpretation and application of the customs and international trade laws.”

 

There’s nothing coup-ish about it. The court is just doing its job under our Constitution. If the Trump administration wants these tariffs enacted, they need to get Congress to sign off on the idea.

 

And if Judge Timothy Reif is such a dastardly revolutionary, hell-bent on preventing America from becoming great again . . . why did Trump appoint him to the U.S. Court of International Trade?

 

Our Andrew Stuttaford notes that while this is welcome news, it does not end the uncertainty hanging over U.S. businesses and international supply chains:

 

Importers (who are — it’s too often forgotten — frequently also exporters) affected by the decision will naturally be pleased, but they also know that, if the administration does not back down (and there is no sign that it will), they can look forward to a period of uncertainty until the issue is resolved. The response to that uncertainty will be, I would imagine, to pull in their horns. To take one out of many possible examples, do companies go ahead with plans to rearrange their supply chains to deal with higher tariffs, or do they put them on ice, or do they go ahead with them, at least to a degree, because even if the new tariffs are permanently quashed, tariff risk clearly remains?

 

Get Ready to Hear a Lot More About TACOs

 

On May 2, Financial Times columnist Robert Asher mentioned an acronym that is likely to stick to the administration: “The recent rally has a lot to do with markets realizing that the U.S. administration does not have a very high tolerance for market and economic pressure, and will be quick to back off when tariffs cause pain. This is the Taco theory: Trump Always Chickens Out.”

 

That doesn’t seem like just a tariff issue. Remember how Hamas was supposed to be paying hell for not releasing all of the hostages? (In his comments, Trump did not specify only the American ones.) The administration is still negotiating with Hamas. Remember how Trump was “very angry” with Putin a few months ago? Still no sign of any additional sanctions on Russia or arms sales to Ukraine. You can also fairly wonder if despite an extensive and expensive effort at hammering the Houthis, Trump accepted, as the Editors put it, “a pinky promise to avoid attacking shipping in the future.” We keep getting told that some grand new deal with the mullahs in Iran is just around the corner, but the hard lesson of the past few decades is that you just can’t trust that regime.

 

Trump was asked about the term yesterday, and he took the accusation about as well as you would expect:

 

Chicken out? I’ve never heard that. You mean because I reduced China from 145 percent that I set down to 100 and then down to another number? And I said you have to open up your whole country and because I — I gave the European Union a 50 percent tax tariff and they called up and they said please, let’s meet right now. Please let’s meet right now. And I said, OK, I’ll give you till June 9 — I actually asked them. I said what’s the date? Because they weren’t willing to meet. And after I did what I did, they said we’ll meet anytime you want, and we have an end date of July 9th. You call that chickening out? Because we have $14 trillion now invested, committed to investing when Biden didn’t have practically anything. Biden — this country was dying. You know, we have the hottest country anywhere in the world. I went to Saudi Arabia, the king told me, he said you got the hottest com — we have the hottest country in the world right now. Six months ago this country was stone cold dead. We had a dead country. We had a country, people didn’t think it was going to survive, and you ask a nasty question like that.

 

It’s called negotiation. You set a number. And if you go down — you know, if I set a number at a ridiculous high number and I go down a little bit, you know, a little bit, they want me to hold that number, 145 percent tariff, even I said man that really got up. You know how it got? Because of fentanyl and many other things and you added it up. I said where are we now? We’re at 145 percent. I said, whoa, that’s high, that’s high. They were doing no business whatsoever and they were having a lot of problems. We were very nice to China. I don’t know if they’re going to be nice to us, but we were very nice to China. And in many ways I think we really helped China tremendously because you know they were having great difficulty because we were basically going cold turkey with China.

 

We were doing no business because of the tariff because it was so high. But I knew that. But don’t ever say what you said. That’s a nasty question. Go ahead. That’s the nastiest question.

 

ADDENDUM: Dan McLaughlin disagrees in part, contending that in the menagerie of hard-left lunatics and incompetents that constitute the New York City mayoral primary, former governor Andrew Cuomo is the least harmful option. “He knows where the bodies are buried because he put half of them there himself.” (Dan doesn’t disagree with me that Cuomo is a walking moral black hole who leaves a trail of slime everywhere he goes, and it’s unfair for anybody to accuse Dan of affirmatively praising or endorsing Cuomo.)

 

I just cannot believe that after all of the effort that mostly a small band of conservatives did during the pandemic to tear down the façade of Cuomo as a brilliant, wise, empathetic leader, and expose how terrible and terribly consequential his decisions were, here we are, five years later, and Cuomo is set to waltz right into Gracie Mansion, probably without breaking a sweat. As I wrote back on August 3, 2021:

 

The exposure of the real Andrew Cuomo should be a deeply humbling experience for everyone who gushed about the New York governor throughout 2020. (If you bought an Andrew Cuomo prayer candle, please go on a lengthy sabbatical and reflect deeply and at great length upon what bad life choices brought you to this low point.) The national media though they were spotlighting the best governor during the pandemic. They spent a year celebrating the worst.

 

From the perspective of 2025 . . . did the exposure of the real Andrew Cuomo matter?

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