By Mark Antonio Wright
Tuesday, May 27, 2025
Jim Geraghty is undoubtedly correct that it’s a positive
development that President Trump finally seems to be coming to the realization
that Vladimir Putin isn’t “such a swell guy.”
Regarding Putin, Trump’s Truth
Social post continued, “He is needlessly killing a lot of people, and I’m not
just talking about soldiers. Missiles and drones are being shot into Cities in
Ukraine, for no reason whatsoever.”
It’s good of Trump to notice this;
the war is only in its fourth year. How can Trump possibly be very surprised
that Putin’s forces are bombing civilians?
Of course, the more important realization for the
policymakers in the Trump administration is for them to come to grips with the
idea that Vladimir Putin and his Kremlin see the continuation of the war as
fundamentally in their interest.
Most Europeans and most Americans — on the left and the
right, both liberal Democrats and MAGA Republicans alike — seem to think that
peace is in the U.S. interest and the Russian interest. The only thing
standing in the way of peace, therefore, is some combination of ego,
stubbornness, foolish American promises to Ukraine stemming from the Biden
administration, and Ukrainian intransigence.
But as I wrote in April, “what’s interesting — and often
ignored here in the U.S. — is that Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin doesn’t
appear to agree with the Trump administration’s assumptions about what’s in
Russia’s interest.”
Oh sure, the Russians would take a
cease-fire if they needed one, or if they thought a temporary halt to
hostilities would work to their advantage down the road, or if a negotiated
deal gave them everything they wanted.
From a desire for the regime to save face, to a culling
of demographic undesirables, to developing a military advantage, to the outside
chance of a fracturing of the Western alliance, there are significant reasons
that Putin’s Kremlin has decided to keep fighting.
Most important, “the Russians understand that the U.S.
government’s policy toward the war since January 2025, and Donald Trump’s
growing frustration, has brought into view the possibility that the war could
end with Russia achieving something it was never able to across the eight
decades of the Cold War and its aftermath: the withdrawal of the United States
from European security commitments.”
The Trump administration is unlikely to get the best
result from any peace negotiations until it groks that the most important
reason that the Russians have continued their war in Ukraine is because the
Russians want to continue waging their war in Ukraine.
So to repeat Jim’s query to President Trump: “The
question is, what are you, as the leader of the United States, going to do
about it?”
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