By Abe Greenwald
Friday, March 07, 2025
If you didn’t know better, you might think that Donald
Trump is suddenly taking a tougher stance on Russia. Today, he posted on Truth
Social: “Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine on the
battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions,
Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT
AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED.”
His post came after a massive Russian attack on Ukrainian
cities earlier today, in which, according to Ukrainian officials, Russia fired
67 missiles and 194 drones. Vladimir Putin picked an opportune moment to launch
a major bombardment, as the U.S. had just halted aid to, and stopped sharing
intelligence with, Ukraine.
That was back when Trump was saying that Ukraine, not
Russia, was the obstacle to peace and that Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy “won’t be around very long.” But he said that a long time ago, in a
different age—this past Tuesday.
So it’s hard to care too much about what Trump claims to
be “strongly considering” on any given day.
It’s hard to believe, too. How many threats against
foreign countries and parties has Trump either walked back, modified, or
ignored since becoming president? He came into office and said that tariffs
against China, Mexico, and Canada would go into effect on February 1. On
February 3, he announced that tariffs on Mexico and Canada would be delayed one
month. In late February, Trump said he was considering putting them off until
April. This past Tuesday, he hit all three countries with 25 percent tariffs.
The next day, he began carving out massive exceptions and imposing delays.
Yesterday, he offered Canada an almost total reprieve. This morning, he
threatened Canada with 250 percent tariffs on lumber and dairy products. “We
may do it as early as today, or we’ll wait until Monday or Tuesday,” Trump
said.
Why not Wednesday? Why not the 15th of Av?
Trump has threatened Hamas with total annihilation more
than once if they didn’t return all the hostages by a given date or, in fact,
“immediately.” If you haven’t noticed, Hamas is still holding hostages and the
Trump administration has been in no-longer-secret negotiations with the
terrorist group. A month ago, Trump announced that he had left orders for Iran
to be “obliterated” should the regime assassinate him; he’s since written a
letter to supreme leader Ali Khamenei in hopes of reaching a deal on Iran’s
nuclear program.
The issue isn’t whether this or that threat may be
advancing some worthy aim. I pray that they all are. The issue is that Trump
zigs and zags so fast and so often that it’s becoming impossible to identify
what could constitute an advance or what he’s aiming for in the first place.
Historically, policies are rolled out, put in place, worked on, and monitored
for results. We’re in a perpetual state of rollout because little of what Trump
threatens or announces lasts long enough to be implemented.
But Trump’s turn against Ukraine seems to have lasted
long enough for Putin to implement his own plans. Because, unlike the U.S., our
genuine enemies know precisely what they want and when to make a grab for it.
Putin isn’t quaking over Trump’s latest social-media post. He knows that all he
has to do is play Trump’s moment-to-moment game and prepare to strike at the
next opportunity.
As for our allies, like the rest of us, they’re the ones
who are caught off guard.
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