National Review Online
Tuesday, March 11, 2025
President Trump says that his administration is “just about” ready to lift
the freeze on sharing intelligence with Ukraine. This reversal can’t come soon
enough.
As part of his pressure campaign against Volodymyr
Zelensky, Trump is materially weakening Ukraine in advance of the forthcoming
negotiations that will determine the country’s fate and perhaps shape Trump’s
second-term legacy.
The logic of the intelligence cutoff is straightforward,
if misbegotten. Zelensky’s failure to play the part of a deferential and
exceedingly grateful foreign partner of the U.S. during last month’s Oval
Office presser prompted Trump to question whether the Ukrainian leader is ready
to seek a negotiated settlement with Russia.
The White House considers the cutoff a temporary measure
to force Zelensky into a conciliatory posture. That may have worked, as
presidential envoy Steve Witkoff said Monday that Zelensky sent Trump a letter
apologizing for the Oval Office meeting, which might be what prompted Trump’s
remarks Sunday.
Even so, U.S. intelligence sharing should never have been
used as a cudgel in the first place. The freeze has possibly already cost
Ukrainian territory — and, according to officers in Kyiv, hundreds of lives.
There are signs that Russian forces are chipping away at the remaining
Ukrainian presence in Kursk. That Russian territory has been fiercely
contested. After a surprise Ukrainian offensive seized it, Moscow deployed its
North Korean reinforcements to the pocket. Ukrainian officers and U.K. defense
intelligence now say that Russia’s counteroffensive has accelerated since the
intelligence cutoff last month.
That’s far from surprising, since U.S. intelligence has
backstopped Kyiv’s war effort from the very start. Without the intelligence
that Washington shared during the first days of the invasion, Russian forces
might well have taken Hostomel Airport, outside of Kyiv, putting the capital
within reach. Instead, Ukraine’s military was able to reposition matériel to
avoid Russian strikes and shoot down a troop transport aircraft. Since then,
America has provided targeting intelligence that the Ukrainians have used to
hit Russian positions, a practice that was paused this month.
While administration officials say that the intelligence
cutoff exempts sharing information of a defensive nature, it’s far from clear
what this means in concrete terms. Even intelligence of an apparently
“offensive” nature, such as that enabling Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk, makes
Kyiv’s defensive war effort possible. It makes little sense to distinguish
these two categories — if Ukraine can’t destroy Russian assets used to buttress
the invasion, it obviously makes defending its territory more difficult.
Moreover, Zelensky is now doing what the administration
wants. In addition to the letter, Zelensky is taking part in conversations in
Riyadh with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike
Waltz. The gears of diplomacy are turning, and Zelensky appears willing to sign
the minerals deal and prove that he will join the Trump-led peace process in
good faith.
On the campaign trail, Trump stated unequivocally that
Ukraine’s strength and survival are important to U.S. interests. Back in
office, he has taken pride in his hawkish first-term stance vis-à-vis Russia’s
ongoing assault on Ukraine. As he put it to Zelensky last month: “I gave you
the Javelins to take out all those tanks. Obama gave you sheets.” During a
recent interview, Trump also pointed to the sanctions he imposed on Russia and
his efforts to kill the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Those were worthy efforts, but the cutoff of intelligence
sharing is a gift to Russia. It’s easing the way for crucial Russian gains
ahead of talks and, if it were to endure, would fundamentally endanger
Ukraine’s military position. Trump shouldn’t want to preside over a
geostrategic collapse possibly even more catastrophic than his predecessor’s
withdrawal from Afghanistan.
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