By Noah Rothman
Wednesday, March 12, 2025
In many respects, Donald Trump deserved the public’s warm
retrospective on his first term. That gauzy hindsight contributed to his
restoration to power and a honeymoon quite unlike anything he experienced in
2017, but voters’ faith in Trump wasn’t irrational. The president — or the
conventional conservative Republicans who staffed his administration and
controlled the 115th Congress — was committed to fixing Barack Obama’s many
mistakes. This time, however, the president is doing the opposite. He’s doubling
down on his predecessor’s impractical and ideological mismanagement of
America’s foreign and domestic concerns. Understandably enough, the trust
voters invested in Trump and the honeymoon that trust produced are evaporating
at a rapid clip.
In 2017, Republicans put an end to the “uncertainty” over which Barack Obama and his mercurial
regulatory regime presided with tax code reform. Negotiations between Trump and
congressional Republicans over the plan that eventually became the Tax Cuts and
Jobs Act were not without tension, but Paul Ryan and his conservatives
got their way. In addition, Republicans helped steer a revised North American free trade agreement
away from Trump’s preference for punitive tariffs on America’s allies. And when
Trump attempted to impose tariffs on Mexico in a bank-shot pursuit of unrelated
geopolitical objectives, Republicans in Congress rediscovered the authority
over foreign trade the Constitution vests in the legislature and threatened a humiliating showdown with their party’s president. Trump
backed down, much to his own benefit. In the end, he presided over a stable
economic environment for which voters longed after the pandemic stole it away.
Absent the austere economic advice of the conservatives
Trump has either sidelined or cowed in the intervening years, the president has
indulged his instincts. As such, instability reigns again, and voters have
noticed. A CNN/SSRS poll published Wednesday found that the confidence
voters once had in Trump’s ability to manage the economy is gone. Today, 56
percent of respondents disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy with 44
approving — an almost total reversal from late January. Unsurprisingly, given
the public’s concern over their individual economic circumstances, Trump’s
overall job approval rating mirrors his rating on the economy with 54 percent
disapproving of his conduct in office.
Trump’s management of America’s foreign affairs in his
first term was similarly focused on repairing the damage Obama and his allies
had done amid their mind-boggling commitment to treating America’s allies like
enemies and its enemies like allies. The Obamans were pathologically hostile to
America’s democratic friends, like Great Britain, and its partners of strategic
necessity alike — states like Israel and Saudi Arabia. Obama tried to usher
both Iran and Russia in from the geopolitical cold, and he was rewarded for his
efforts with chaos.
Trump 1.0 put an end to all that. It armed Ukraine —
something the Obamans balked at. It embraced Israel and stopped voting with
America’s adversaries against Jerusalem in the United Nations. It put renewed
pressure on rogue states (Trump’s dalliance with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un
notwithstanding) like Venezuela and Cuba based on the predicate that those
nations are governed by illegitimate, abusive, and — most importantly —
anti-democratic juntas.
This was not a MAGA project. It was a conservative
Republican project largely conceived of and executed by conservative Republicans.
Today, Trump has unveiled contempt for the architects of those policies, and
the feeling is quite mutual. Untamed by the GOP, Trump has set
himself to pursuing an Obama-style foreign policy. His administration is once
again voting with our enemies in the United Nations. He is muscling and taunting our allies in ways that contrast unfavorably with
the (at best) passive aggression he reserves for America’s opponents
abroad. Commensurately, the public’s impression of Trump’s foreign policy
competence has collapsed. That CNN poll found Trump’s disapproval rating on
foreign affairs rising to 58 percent of respondents — his worst performance on
any of the issues that survey tested save “tariffs.”
And contrary to the GOP’s messaging during the 2024
campaign, the Trump team has not cleared the air of the corruption that helped
suffocate Biden’s presidency. The president displays contempt for the
appearance of propriety. He maintains his personal stake in his proprietary
social-media venue, pitches the public on investments in cryptocurrency “meme coins” featuring himself, seeks to use tax dollars to prop up the value of financial products favored by his children, and appears to be selling direct
access to himself to the tune of $5 million per audience. Republicans can turn a blind eye
to all this only so long as voters agree to do the same. But the public’s
ambivalence won’t last forever — certainly not if voters fail to see a return
on their investment in a second Trump presidency.
Amid all these ominous portents, the GOP would be better
served by abandoning their submissive posture. The guardrails Republicans
placed around Trump in his first term made him a better president. Indeed, what
voters liked about the first Trump term is that, in policy if not rhetoric, it
was a triumph of generic Republicanism. This time around, the GOP has decided
to give Trump all the rope he wants, and he seems to be fashioning enough
nooses for everyone with it.
Second terms are often messy affairs, but the wheels are
coming off this one far too early. The sooner the GOP stops withholding its
better judgment in deference to the loudest of the Bristol Electors on social media, the better the party
and the country will be for it.
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