By Noah Rothman
Thursday, March 13, 2025
As I wrote yesterday, muscling the Ukrainian government
into submission — up to and including throttling its ability to defend the
bargaining chip it secured for itself (and the West) in Russia’s Kursk Oblast —
was the easy part. Getting Russia to the negotiating table was always going to
be the heavier lift. So far, all the carrots in the world — and there have been
only carrots — have failed to persuade Vladimir Putin to give up his designs on
Ukraine and the U.S.-led geopolitical order beyond its borders.
Jim Geraghty provided a nauseatingly extensive list of
sweeteners and concessions Donald Trump’s negotiators ceded to the Kremlin
without any apparent reciprocation from the Russian side. True to the form
familiar to all who have studied Russian-style statecraft, Moscow appears to
regard this as a display of weakness.
On Thursday, the Russian regime responded to Team Trump’s
claim that the ball is now on Moscow’s side of the court. For now, the Kremlin
appears content to run out the clock.
In remarks to reporters, Russian foreign policy adviser Yuri
Ushakov rejected a 30-day cease-fire that would
provide “nothing other than a temporary breather for Ukrainian troops.” Those
remarks mirror the contempt shown by Konstantin Malofeev, a Russian media mogul believed to
speak for Putin, toward the peace plan put forward in December by Trump’s
Russia-Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg (who Malofeev said could “screw himself”).
It seems that both Ushakov and Malofeev were not talking
out of turn. In remarks by Putin himself, the Russian autocrat said that he
is “in favor” of the cease-fire plan, but “there are nuances.” Among them, his
claim that any peace plan “should remove the root causes of this crisis.” If
Putin’s pre-war address is any indication, the “root causes” he’d like to
address are the offensive notion that a Ukrainian identity separate from Russia
exists — a grave insult to the sacrifices made during the tsarist campaigns to
take the Black Sea coast from the Turks.
In an even more irksome twist, Putin
added that his government would determine how to
proceed based on how its offensive operations in Kursk go. Over the last
several days, Putin has made sure photographers can find him dressed in
military fatigues, promising to treat captured Ukrainian soldiers not as
combatants protected by the Geneva Convention but as “terrorists”
— although it’s hard to distinguish how that would depart from Russia’s current
practices, in which Moscow’s forces are exempt from domestic prosecution for
the war crimes they are alleged to have committed.
This is the country that the Trump team constantly
reassures us is “ready for peace”? It sounds more like a country ready to
prosecute the war Putin started with maximum vigor and brutality, to take the
utmost advantage of the gifts their counterparts in Washington have provided.
As I also noted yesterday, the Trump administration’s excessive
graciousness toward the Russian side might have provided the Kremlin with a
distorted view of the concessions it can extract from the White House. It was
almost sure to ask for more. But Russia isn’t just beseeching Trump, hat in
hand, for a better deal. Moscow is humiliating him.
Trump is reliably sensitive to his perception that he is
being disrespected. Only two weeks ago, Americans were treated to a
sanctimonious lecture about the violence Volodymyr Zelensky did to American
national prestige by failing to wear a suit to the White House and insisting on
durable and enforceable cease-fire terms. And yet, the president and his allies
have displayed a level of patience for the Russians that is seemingly reserved only
for the Russians. It’s reasonable to wonder when Trump’s hostility to
impertinent foreign actors will make an appearance.
“Throughout the entire world, we’re no longer respected
as a country,” Trump said last year. “They don’t respect our leadership.
They don’t respect the United States anymore.” Upon taking office, Trump
declared that he would usher in a new era of reverence for America. “From this
day forward,” the president said at the outset of his second inaugural address,
“our country will flourish and be respected again all over the world.”
It doesn’t look like Putin got the message. The Kremlin
and its mouthpieces have
taken us for fools. So, what are you going to do about it, Mr. President?
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