By Abe Greenwald
Tuesday, March 18, 2025
On the New York
Times’ website today, Ezra Klein talks with Democratic strategist David
Shor about why Donald Trump won the 2024 election. It’s a rich and fascinating
conversation chock-full of data and ideas about what went wrong (from their
perspective) and what to do about it. What becomes clear is that they know what
went wrong for Democrats, but they don’t really know what to do about it.
The situation boils down to this, from Shor: “If you look
at the top issues that voters care the most about—cost of living, the economy,
taxes, government spending, the deficit, foreign policy and health care—other
than health care, where Democrats have a narrow lead, Republicans have massive
trust advantages of about 15 points on all of the issues that voters care the
most about.”
The race wasn’t determined by the likeability of a
particular candidate or abstract ideas such as fighting off the “threat to
democracy.” It was about concrete issues. Voters don’t trust Democrats on the
economy, taxes, government spending, the deficit, and foreign policy because
they’ve seen how Democrats approach these issues—with ineffective, out-of-touch
liberal policies. Shor noted of Joe Biden: “Over the course of 2021, as his
approval ratings dipped, the perception that he was too liberal also went up.”
That’s because Biden, like the rest of his party, has
become too liberal. Not only did he fail on the issues that Americans care
about, but he also followed his left flank on tertiary social or environmental
causes that, at best, don’t matter to the average American. Biden’s celebrating
Transgender Visibility Day and phasing out plastic straws might have pleased
some activists but it did his party no favors.
So how can Democrats deal with this? Toward the end of
the conversation, Klein asks Shor: “What do you do about the reality of the
Democratic brand? It’s toxic in most of the land area in the country.” Shor
responds: “Realistically, at least until 2026, it’s mostly going to depend on
what Republicans do.”
There’s more to his answer, but none of it is about
Democrats actually, you know, changing. The idea is for them to sit back and
wait for Trump to make an enormous mistake and then hammer away at the
Republicans.
One can understand Shor’s position. After all, the brand
is toxic because the product is toxic. The only way to fix that is to alter the
product. Changing what the Democratic Party believes in—as opposed to what it
messages—is up to Democratic politicians, not election strategists. There’s no
cosmetic solution. We know that political candidates aren’t allergic to lying
about their beliefs and embellishing their records, but messaging and ideas
need to align at least to the extent that the contrast between them isn’t
absurd. If you try to sell anchovies in a honey jar, you’re not going to corner
the honey market.
What’s more, if the Democratic Party shows any interest
in changing, it’s in change that would bring it further away from popular
positions and closer to irrelevant or unpopular ones. Democrats are currently
up in arms about the pending deportation of a terrorist-supporting non-citizen
and the actual deportation of hundreds of members of a dangerous international
criminal organization.
Shor’s right. With a party like that, the strategist’s
best bet is to wait for the other side to make a mess of things—then attack.
But this might be a bigger challenge than he realizes. Because if Democrats are
outraged by the deportation of our enemies, they might not be able to recognize
a genuine Republican mess if they see one.
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