Vladimir Putin Rejects Trump’s Cease-Fire

By Noah Rothman

Tuesday, March 18, 2025

 

Those in the Trump administration who are invested in deals over and above what those deals are meant to achieve are unlikely to admit that Vladimir Putin rejected the terms for a 30-day cease-fire in Ukraine. Of course, Putin didn’t say “no” outright — at least, not according to either the Kremlin’s or the White House’s read-outs of the two-hour conversation between Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart. But what Moscow was willing to agree to is far from the terms into which the administration muscled Kyiv.

 

Under immense pressure from the administration, and amid battlefield setbacks occasioned by Trump’s withholding of the intelligence needed to use U.S.-provided weapons platforms properly, Kyiv agreed last week to a cessation of all combat operations across the entire Ukrainian theater — dropping its desire to see a halt only to air, drone, and maritime combat operations. By contrast, Putin agreed only to a mutual halt to naval operations and to air attacks on civilian infrastructure, such as energy installations.

 

It would not be the first time both sides of this conflict have agreed to limit those sorts of combat operations only to see those agreements break down. But the conditions of the most recent agreement would be particularly advantageous for Moscow because they just happen to be the areas of operations where Russia is presently taking it on the chin. Such a deal, if entered into effect, would give Moscow a reprieve from Ukraine’s successful attacks on naval assets and drone assaults on Russia’s petroleum facilities deep inside the federation.

 

So, what would Ukraine get out of the deal? Not a lot. As a condition of peace, Putin has demanded a total suspension of all Western military aid and intelligence support for Ukraine during the 30-day pause in fighting. The Russian autocrat didn’t even have the courtesy to lie about his country’s intention to similarly abstain from seeking material support from its anti-American allies North Korea, Iran, and China, nor did he pledge to take Russia’s defense–industrial base off its war footing.

 

Putin does not seem to be cagey about his intention to restart hostilities at a time of maximum advantage — an advantage that the cease-fire he envisions would provide. The White House never misses an opportunity to retail the Russian version of events, no matter how fantastical, despite the lack of anything resembling reciprocity from the Kremlin. Indeed, even after Putin made a theatrical show of regarding Trump with the contempt he would show a subordinate, there is as yet no indication that the limit to the president’s patience with Russia has been reached.

 

It’s reasonable to wonder at this point if such a limit exists. The president is conspicuously sensitive to slights from allies, but he seems to have an endless capacity to absorb humiliation as long as it’s being meted out by our adversaries. At the present rate, the damage Trump is doing to his reputation as a figure to be feared by America’s adversaries may be irreversible. Still, if the president can reclaim some of the dignity America has lost in this process, he should. There’s no reason the president must continue this farce.

 

Following Ukraine’s bitter but still unconditional acceptance of the White House’s terms, the Trump administration officials repeatedly claimed that “the ball is now in Russia’s court.” Well, it doesn’t look like Russia is interested in playing the White House’s game, and the initiative is once again with Washington. Will the president cede even more of America’s diminishing leverage to cajole a recalcitrant Kremlin into submission? Or will it recognize, albeit belatedly, that it is being used by the Kremlin, which has every interest in prolonging a process that has driven a wedge between the U.S. and its European allies — one of Moscow’s foremost grand strategic objectives since the Cold War?

 

If Putin’s claim that Trump plans to end Russia’s international athletic isolation by agreeing to host the Russian hockey team for a goodwill match is accurate, the answer seems obvious.