By Seth Mandel
Monday, March 03, 2025
You almost have to appreciate the chutzpah of Hamas’s
negotiating tactics. The Wall Street Journal reports
on the debate among Arab states over whether Hamas will get to stick around
for whatever comes after this war. As a result, we get museum-worthy sentences
like the following:
Most Hamas officials concede that
the group is unlikely to survive as ruler in Gaza. But having weathered 15
months of brutal fighting, the group’s Gaza-based hard-liners want it to remain
an armed force that can exert influence behind the scenes and potentially
return to fighting Israel, Arab and Hamas officials said.
Oh, well, is that all they’re asking for? Seems
reasonable.
This ongoing debate inspires deep skepticism toward the
eventual formation of a pan-Arab plan for Gaza. Hamas is the reason for Gaza’s
devastation. It is also the reason this war isn’t over. Ideally, Hamas would be
fired into the sun, but Israel is willing to let Hamas’s leaders leave the Gaza
Strip alive as long as they stay away.
There is one clear goal regarding postwar Gaza: The
absence of Hamas. That absence could be brought about by the terror
government’s total defeat in the battlespace or by its surrender, in which it
would hand over all governing institutions to an approved non-Hamas entity
after returning the remaining hostages.
The reason Hamas cannot be left in a position of
political power in Gaza is that such an outcome would guarantee the resumption
of war. Hamas has made clear, through its statements just as much as its
behavior, that as long as it survives it will launch periodic wars of
annihilation against Israel. In a region as confusing and volatile as the
Middle East, this is one of the few things we know with certainty: Death,
taxes, and Hamas trying to burn people alive.
No one disputes this, and no one is naïve to it. If you
support leaving Hamas in Gaza, it means you are comfortable with the status quo
of permanent war. Hamas rules Gaza with an iron fist, and because of its
foreign backing (Iran, Qatar, Turkey) it cannot easily be dislodged by rival
parties, even if there were rival parties willing to take it on.
All of which makes Hamas’s overtures remarkably daft. The
West wants Hamas out of government because it wants an end to the cycle of war.
So Hamas… promises to stay out of government but asks only that it be allowed
to remain for the sole purpose of waging war?
Egypt is trying to be accommodating, so it has proposed a
middle ground: Hamas disbands as a party but Hamas members join a new joint
governing committee with officials from the Palestinian Authority
and—crucially—Hamas leaders turn over missiles and rockets to be guarded by a
third party until the establishment of a Palestinian state. “But Hamas’s senior
negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, categorically refused the proposal during a
meeting with the head of Egyptian intelligence, Hassan Rashad, in February, Egyptian
and Hamas officials said,” the Journal reports.
Again, the fact that Hamas officials are among the
sources here takes a lot of the guesswork out of these negotiations. We don’t
have to wonder if Hamas is aware of what’s being floated on its behalf. Hamas
is part of the conversation. And it is saying very clearly that it exists for
the sole purpose of total war against the Jews.
This is why Hamas’s presence makes it harder to raise
financial contributions from any donor nation not named Qatar. It is a waste of
money to build structures that Hamas will immediately rig with explosives.
The choice here, according to Hamas itself, is between
Hamas and the possibility of a peaceful life for Palestinians. Those who are
even considering choosing the former should stop lecturing Israel, the U.S., or
anyone else about the welfare of the Palestinians.
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