Trump’s Poland Problem Just Got Bigger

By Peter Doran & Matt Boyse

Tuesday, January 07, 2025

 

President-elect Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House has caused many of his loudest European critics to rummage uncertainly through their diplomatic toolkits in preparation for Trump 2.0. Not keen to picking up hammers and sharp implements, most are preparing to soften their responses to the incoming administration.

 

This is not so in Poland, where the government of former EU Council President and current prime minister, Donald Tusk, looks not for tools but for weapons — spears to throw at its friends abroad and knives to jab at its critics at home.

 

The latest dust-up was produced by the Polish government threatening to arrest Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, should he set foot in Poland to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, the infamous Nazi concentration camp. The justification? Enforcing the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) ludicrous arrest warrant against Netanyahu, charging him as a war criminal.

 

Israel is one of Poland’s key relationships outside of NATO and vice versa, but strong ties cannot last when one of America’s allies announces plans to arrest the other’s leaders on trumped-up ICC charges.

 

Poland’s threat is a further barb in the wire snaring the U.S.-Polish relationship, which Trump will inherit on January 20.

 

During his last term, Trump slammed the ICC for endangering U.S. national security. He signed a pointed executive order threatening sanctions against foreign officials who enforce ICC arrest warrants against individuals from countries like Israel.

 

While Biden ended the order when he took office, Trump is almost certain to reinstate it. This is bad news for Tusk, whose public animosity toward Trump runs deep, but for whom the relationship with the United States is critical.

 

Speaking for the EU at the United Nations in 2019, for example, Tusk disparaged Trump for declaring to assembled world leaders: “If you want freedom, take pride in your country. If you want democracy, hold on to your sovereignty. And if you want peace, love your nation.”

 

Tusk attacked this assertion: “I do not agree with this opinion. It is false and dangerous.”

 

Dangerous to whom?

 

Since taking office as the head of Poland’s government in December 2023, Tusk has answered that question. It is dangerous to his power.

 

Tusk followed the Biden-Harris election playbook in Poland. He proclaimed that he was on a mission to “save democracy” in his country. He and his allies branded their opponents who, like Trump, also take pride in their country and seek to hold onto their sovereignty as “authoritarian” and “far-right.”

 

Tusk has promised to sweep away his political opponents with an iron broom. Using this metaphor, he branded this policy: “militant democracy” or “demokracja walczaca.” It is a highly charged phrase, evoking Polish communist-era opposition efforts to use extraordinary means to fight communists.

 

The irony of Tusk’s approach is rich and preposterous. His main opposition party — PiS — is a major, long-standing foe of communism’s legacy in Poland, not its protector.

 

Opposition leader and former prime minister Jarosław Kaczyński claims many of Tusk’s charges are misleading or false. He and others say the government is guilty of weaponizing the legal system and indulging in the very kinds of political excesses for which Tusk has criticized his party. They have a point.

 

The Tusk government’s best option is to reverse course. It can start by positioning Poland as a model for other U.S. allies to follow: pledging not to enforce the ICC’s absurd campaign against Israel. It’s not only sage geopolitics but also smart self-protection. Polish officials do not want to be sanctioned should Trump re-instate his ICC order.

 

Tusk should also put away the “iron brooms.” America needs a strong Poland with a strong opposition — not a major ally mired in vendetta politics. His government should cease talking about criminalizing political differences, especially when senior Polish officials admit some of their actions may be “inconsistent with the law,” as Tusk has said.

 

This is blatantly hypocritical and counterproductive in an ally like Poland. The stakes for the bilateral relationship, the European security order, and great power competition are too high.

 

Does the Tusk government really think that targeting America’s friends like Israel and waging lawfare against opponents at home will get his relationship with Trump off to a strong start? Let’s hope not.

 

The incoming administration should be direct with Tusk: mend your relationships with your friends, lay off your domestic opponents, and point any sharp implements at our shared enemies like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.