By Nick Catoggio
Wednesday,
January 22, 2025
The art of politics is balancing the hard stuff with the
easy stuff.
A candidate for office makes outlandish
promises on the trail then finds himself obliged to
make good when he wins. Mass deportation, budget-balancing tariffs, peace in
Ukraine, cheaper eggs: That’s the hard stuff.
The hard stuff takes time and Americans are impatient.
The candidate’s supporters need to feel that progress is being made while they
wait for their hero to deliver on his grander policy vision. To tide them over
and stave off disappointment, he resorts to the easy stuff.
Think of the easy stuff as policy lagniappes, little
bonus goodies that no one expected or really wanted but which are offered as a
token of gratitude to one’s customers.
The easy stuff supplied by the second Trump
administration in its first 48 hours consists mostly of revanchist
nomenclatural nonsense designed to give “America First” nationalists a thrill.
Going forward, the executive branch will refer to the Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf
of America,” Denali as “Mount
McKinley,” and foreign nationals as “aliens.”
It’s all very freedom
fries, jingoism on the cheap.
Trump’s infatuation with annexing
Greenland can be understood that way too, although of
course there’s more to that than linguistic rigmarole. Menacing a small
Scandinavian ally whose population is smaller than New York City’s over an
island territory whose population could fit inside Old Yankee Stadium is the
dictionary definition of jingoism on the cheap.
The hard
stuff takes time, so the new president is doing the easy stuff early.
Another easy thing he did this week is to make it
meaningfully more likely that his former national security adviser, John
Bolton, will be murdered.
Bolton has spent the last five years under threat of
death from the Iranian government. Shortly before he left the first Trump White
House, he urged the then-president to order the assassination of Qassem
Suleimani, the immensely powerful head of Iran’s Quds Force. A few months
later, Trump followed through. Iran has borne Bolton a lethal grudge ever
since.
The Iranians are serious about it too. In 2022, the
Justice Department indicted
a member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard for
plotting to have him and, allegedly, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
killed. By that point, due to the gravity of the risk, Joe Biden had already
ordered round-the-clock
Secret Service protection for Bolton. That protection continued until this
week, when Bolton got
a call from the agency informing him that the new
president intended to end his security detail.
“Disappointed but not surprised” is how he described his reaction to the news.
When reporters asked Trump about his decision, he framed
it as a sort of efficiency measure. “I think that was enough time,” he said of
Bolton’s Secret Service protection. “You take a job, you want to do a job—we’re
not going to have security on people for the rest of their lives. Why should
we?” He then proceeded to inform the press that Bolton is “dumb” and a
“warmonger.”
Let’s unpack this.
Retribution.
It bears emphasizing that the reason Bolton’s life is in
danger in the first place is because of something Trump did.
He may have targeted Suleimani on Bolton’s advice, but
the decision as president to pull the trigger was his—and he’s never regretted
it, as far as I’m aware. Taking out the Quds Force chief is a key item in his
presidential CV, in fact. Whether you’re a traditional pro-Israel hawk or a
right-wing populist who relishes seeing your idol push bad guys around, Trump
liquidating a figure as sinister as Suleimani was an act of audacious
“strength” worth cheering.
For years, Democrats have criticized Republicans for
being too bellicose toward Iran, with Bolton himself often cited as a paradigm
example. But when Bolton’s life came under threat from the regime, Joe Biden
took the true “America First” approach by treating the former NSA’s safety as a
priority for his administration. Bolton himself gratefully noted on Tuesday that his Secret Service detail remained in place
despite the fact that he disparaged Biden’s foreign policy repeatedly since
2021.
You might think that a president whose policy landed
Bolton on the hit list to begin with would feel at least the same degree of
responsibility to guarantee his security. At a minimum, whatever animosity the
new White House harbors toward Bolton should be dwarfed by its animosity toward
Iran, enough so to want to deprive the mullahs of the moral victory they’d
enjoy by successfully exacting an eye for an eye for Suleimani.
You might think. But we all know better, don’t we?
Another remarkable angle in Trump’s decision to yank
Bolton’s Secret Service detail is the timing. This was a Day 1 priority
for him.
According to
the New York Times, Bolton got the call about his security being
rescinded sometime on Monday evening, less than 12 hours after Trump was sworn
in. That would have been around the same time that the new president was
signing shock-and-awe
executive orders on major priorities like ending
birthright citizenship for children of migrants and rescuing TikTok from
ruination. Amid a flurry of activity involving the “hard stuff” of his
presidency, in other words, and at a moment when he was being feted by Washington
and his fans, his longstanding bitterness toward Bolton still occupied enough
space in the forefront of his mind that he made sure his former adviser
wouldn’t feel personally safe for so much as a single day of his new term.
To him, giving an order to expose Bolton to physical
danger was the easiest of “easy stuff,” I’m sure. He promised
retribution and here it was, blood red, bright and
early on Day 1.
And it was retribution, notwithstanding Trump’s
press-conference babbling about the supposed financial burdens of providing
lifetime security to federal officials. This is a guy who called for the total
elimination of the debt ceiling just a month ago,
remember; he’s not sweating the budgetary implications of having to add a few
more Secret Service agents, I promise.
He did the same thing to Bolton that he’s done many times
to Liz Cheney, dressing up a personal vendetta as a quasi-principled
disagreement over policy. He never
cared that Cheney was a “warmonger” until she
embarrassed him by voting to impeach him for January 6. He cared even less
about Bolton’s long history of “warmongering” when he made him his top adviser
on national security. He hates Bolton for the same reason he hates anyone,
because Bolton has a low opinion of him and isn’t shy about expressing it—which
he began doing in
the thick of the 2020 presidential campaign, damaging Trump’s chances of
winning.
The closest the president and his supporters have gotten
to articulating a legitimate grievance against his former aide is objecting
that Bolton was reckless in handling classified information. If you don’t find that ironic
to the point of hilarity, you’re probably a Fox News viewer.
The last time Bolton had any official interaction with a
Trump administration, it involved the Justice Department trying
to silence him in dubious ways to spare the president
from his criticism. His latest interaction with the new Trump administration
can be understood that way as well. If Trump can’t force him to shut up, maybe
the Iranians can.
Protection.
“Ending John Bolton’s security detail (not clearance) has
one major consequence,” my colleague, Sarah Isgur, wrote on Tuesday.
“Either nobody sane will be willing [to] go into [government] or those that do
will refuse to stand up to the bad guys if a future president is going to let
them be killed [because] of political differences.”
There’s good sense there. Various Trump toadies on social
media have been screeching at Bolton, who’s well off, to pay for his own
security, but that misses the point of having the feds supply it. Protecting
Bolton on the taxpayer dime is a way to reassure future government employees
who might not have the same means that they too will be protected if the need
arises.
So Sarah has a point, in theory. But is it really true
that Bolton’s fate will discourage capable people from joining the government?
Michael Waltz, Trump’s newest national security adviser,
may be a
cretin, but he doesn’t strike me as insane and I doubt he’ll refuse to
stand up to the bad guys. My guess is that he expects future presidents,
Democratic or Republican, will behave the way Biden did toward Bolton,
notwithstanding the precedent Trump just set. And he’s probably (probably!)
right.
The lesson for government officials from the Bolton
episode isn’t that they might fear for their lives someday if they dare to make
enemies of Iran or Russia or China or North Korea. The lesson for them is that
they might fear for their lives if they dare to make an enemy of Trump.
It can’t be a coincidence that Bolton’s security detail
was pulled at about the same time on Monday that Trump was signing an order
granting clemency to the January 6 insurrectionists. Per Axios,
that decision also appears to have qualified as “easy stuff” for him despite
the obvious risk to the public in freeing a group containing hundreds of
violent offenders and a few handfuls of seditionist militiamen. “F— it, release
‘em all,” Trump reportedly said to aides when deciding how sweeping his pardons
and commutations should be.
“Release ‘em all.” That’s how easy it was. I don’t know
what else the angry
cops who voted for him expected after he spent months
on the campaign trail telling anyone who’d listen that he aimed to free the
“hostages.” What did they think an authoritarian meant when he wheezed about
“law and order”? That he would prioritize fighting crime over his own power to
commit crime and get away with it?
He just pardoned
the guy who created the dark web’s hub for
drug-dealing, for cripes sake. He doesn’t care about crime.
Look at photos of the crowd on January 6 and you’ll find the
“thin blue line” flag on display amid the
cop-punching, seemingly without irony. That’s because Trump and the thuggish
postliberals in his base value the police in the same shallow way they value
patriotism and the military and religious faith, as bulwarks of traditional
authority against cultural enemies rather than as neutral enforcers of social
order. When the cops at the Capitol dared to take sides against them by
protecting Congress, the mob could beat them while brandishing the “thin blue
line” banner without seeing any contradiction. When brandished by nationalists,
that flag doesn’t represent respect for law or for the police. It’s a battle
standard of traditional authority against any modern element that would usurp
it.
Impunity for the J6ers and insecurity for John Bolton
amount to Trump adopting a similar ethos of raw authority for presidential
power. Whether you did violence to the state by trying to overthrow it or face
violence from a foreign state trying to murder you, how the executive branch
treats you will depend on whether the president personally regards you as a
cultural friend or enemy. There’s no sense of duty—patriotic in Bolton’s case
and legal in the case of jailed insurrectionists—that will compel him to protect
his enemies or to punish his friends. There is only authority, to be wielded as
he deems fit in his supreme discretion.
And so, if your personal safety depends on the support of
an Article II agency, the events of the last 48 hours amount to quasi-official
notice to adjust your friendliness toward Donald Trump accordingly.
It seems bad that an unstable demagogue who commands
devout loyalty from violent goons should have the power to order law
enforcement not to protect those he dislikes from violent goons, but I suppose
we litigated that on Election Day. Vox populi, vox dei.
Risk.
A thought experiment in closing. How do we imagine Trump
will react if Iranian terrorists really do murder Bolton?
Having that happen after he pulled the victim’s Secret
Service detail would potentially be quite a pickle for the new White House. It
also might explain why Joe Biden was so generous in providing Bolton with
security. He must have realized that he would have been pummeled by critics if
he had refused and the man had ended up dead. For all their animosity toward
Bolton, Trump and MAGA surely would have exploited the matter as proof that the
then-president and his party of liberals were disgracefully weak on protecting
Americans from Iran.
The same sort of risk is present for the new White House,
arguably more so since Trump is withdrawing protection that’s already in place
and plainly doing so to satisfy a grudge. That he’s willing to needlessly run
that risk can only mean that the pleasure of possibly seeing John Bolton killed
is worth enough to him that he’s prepared to absorb a certain degree of
political damage to try to make it happen. He doesn’t care how it looks.
I mean, does this sound like a guy who’s worried about public perceptions?
Centrist voters might cringe a bit at Trump’s vindictiveness toward Bolton, but
c’mon: They know what they signed
up for.
There might not even be much political damage. Democrats
and Trump Republicans both despise Bolton for different reasons; certainly,
many righties who would have lashed Biden for not protecting him will revel in
the demise of one of Trump’s most “disloyal” former deputies. And true-blue
postliberals would celebrate the murder of a notorious hawk unabashedly, I
suspect. Tucker Carlson’s inevitable monologue extolling the Hezbollah fanatic
who did the deed and offering suggestions on which “deep stater” should be next
will be an all-timer.
Besides, in fairness, blood lust towards one’s opponents
isn’t strictly a MAGA thing. Probably the single most disgusting political
spectacle of the last six months is Luigi-mania,
and that’s mostly (but not
entirely) a left-wing phenomenon. Americans have gotten used to unhinged
bipartisan political viciousness. The difference between left and right in
matters like these is mainly that on only one side does that viciousness
trickle up to the very top.
I doubt President Trump would feel inclined to retaliate
against Iran for Bolton’s murder, any more than he’s inclined to punish China
for getting millions of American kids addicted to its dopey social-media
propaganda op. Trump likes TikTok because he benefits
personally from TikTok; presumably he’d like to see one of his harsher
critics on the right dead for the same reason.
In the end, maybe that’s an argument for Iran to leave
John Bolton alone. They want to avenge Suleimani and punish Trump? Forget
trying to kill him and start trying to book Bolton on American cable news
shows. Having to watch him on television every day belittling his intelligence,
morals, strategic acumen, and worldview will drive Trump batty.
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