A Costly Cease-Fire Deal

National Review Online

Friday, January 17, 2025

 

Israel and Hamas have struck a deal for an initial cease-fire that will pause hostilities for six weeks and lead to the release of 33 hostages. The deal was formally approved by Israel’s security cabinet on Friday and is expected to be endorsed by the full cabinet in time to begin this Sunday. It is the first step in a three-part process that could eventually see the war in Gaza come to an end with all hostages returned to Israel.

 

The deal gave President Biden something to tout in his farewell address and provided some way for President-elect Trump to save face given his threat that there would be “hell to pay” if the hostages weren’t released by the time he’s sworn in. Even though the deal only allows for the gradual return of some hostages rather than the immediate return of all of them by January 20, Trump and his team can plausibly claim credit for scaring Hamas back to the negotiating table as well as convincing Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree by leveraging a strong first-term record of supporting Israel. Unfortunately, the publicly available details are also consistent with a more cynical case that Trump had no idea what “hell to pay” would mean, and so he pressured a close ally into a bad deal because he was desperate to avoid an early foreign policy embarrassment.

 

To be sure, there are obvious benefits to Israel in the first phase of the agreement. The deal will secure the release of 33 hostages (about two-thirds of whom are believed to be alive) and provide a respite to a war that has raged on for 15 months, strained the nation’s reservists, put Israeli civilians in the crosshairs of thousands of rockets and missiles, and cost the lives of more than 400 military personnel.

 

With that said, the deal exacts a significant price on Israel. Israelis will be required to withdraw from parts of Gaza that were wrested from terrorists after months of deadly urban warfare. Israel will also be required to release dozens of Palestinian prisoners for each hostage set free. Specifically, for every female Israeli soldier hostage returned, Israelis will have to hand over 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 serving life sentences. In another cruel twist, the 33 hostages (who are a mix of living and dead captives) will not be released all at once, but only gradually over the course of the 42-day initial phase.

 

Furthermore, at the end of the first phase, Hamas will retain more than 60 hostages. Securing their release will require significant additional concessions from Israelis in phases two and three. Concessions will likely involve the release of thousands of prisoners, an end to Israel’s war on Hamas, and a full withdrawal from Gaza.

 

The most obvious consequence of such a final deal is that Gaza would swiftly be retaken by Hamas. Even after the announcement of the deal but before its going into effect, Hamas terrorists were seen celebrating on the streets in Gaza in the open. In Qatar, senior Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya hailed the agreement as proof that the terrorist group could never be defeated. He called the massacre of 1,200 Israelis on October 7 a “source of pride” for Palestinians and vowed that the group would destroy Israel “at the earliest time possible.”

 

The ultimate verdict on this deal may not be delivered for decades. In 2011, Israel agreed to release over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the return of Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier who had been kidnapped by Hamas more than five years earlier. Within Israel at the time, as now, there was a mix of controversy about the deal and jubilation over his return, given that Israel is a small and tight-knit society. That lopsided hostage-for-terrorists swap, however, taught Hamas that exploiting Israelis’ love of life by taking hostages could garner massive concessions. More directly, one of those released prisoners was Yahya Sinwar, who went on to become the architect of the October 7 attacks.

 

Given that the current deal also involves American hostages (two of the three believed to be alive are slated to be released), it has potentially worrisome consequences for the U.S. Because the U.S. has been a leading party to these talks with Hamas, the agreement has set a troubling precedent that we are willing to negotiate prisoner-for-hostage deals with designated terrorist groups that take Americans captive.

 

To avoid the worst-case scenario becoming reality, the incoming Trump administration must give Israelis every reassurance that they won’t be forced into any final agreement to end the war that would leave Hamas in control of Gaza. In an encouraging sign, Representative Mike Waltz, Trump’s incoming national security adviser, told Fox News, “We’ve made it very clear to the Israelis, and I want the people of Israel to hear me on this: If they need to go back in, we’re with them. If Hamas doesn’t live up to the terms of this agreement, we are with them.” He added, “Hamas is not going to continue as a military entity, and it is certainly not going to govern Gaza.” Defense secretary nominee Pete Hegseth expressed a similar sentiment in his confirmation hearing, declaring, “I support Israel destroying and killing every last member of Hamas.”

 

No matter how great the temptation will be to get the war over and done with, the new Trump administration must hold firm on these assurances and allow Israel the latitude to walk away from phases two and three of the framework and resume military operations in Gaza if necessary to keep Hamas from regaining power.