Apex Trump

By Matthew Continetti

Saturday, January 18, 2025

 

‘Ahas power over B,” said the political scientist Robert Dahl, “to the extent that he can get B to do something that B would not otherwise do.”

 

In Washington’s new power equation, “A” is Donald Trump and “B” is everyone else.

 

He has spent nearly a decade in presidential politics, remade the Republican Party in his image, won the GOP nomination three times, and defeated the Bushes, the Clintons, Kamala Harris, and, by extension, Joe Biden and Barack Obama.

 

He clawed his way out of the political wilderness after 2020 by capitalizing on flawed opposition, the personal and policy failures of Biden and Harris, and prosecutorial lawfare. In 2024, he won the popular vote, brought Republicans an electoral trifecta, and assumed the powers of the presidency in all but name.

 

Trump forms his administration at warp speed. Wall Street swoons. The world holds its breath.

 

His tariff talk inspired Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum to float a plan to reduce Chinese imports. His desire for U.S. territorial expansion as a means of gaining leverage over China has excited this columnist and rattled Canada, Panama, and Denmark. His threat to unleash hell in the Middle East if Hamas doesn’t release hostages prior to Inauguration Day produced the first cease-fire deal in Gaza in over a year.

 

Not only have Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jeff Bezos made peace with the president-elect. Much of corporate America has interpreted Trump’s reelection as the beginning of an American glasnost, an openness to free speech, merit-based achievement, and unapologetic patriotism. Tech censorship, DEI, climate hysteria, and the ahistorical mentality behind the New York Times’ 1619 Project are weakened. Legacy media are hobbled. The Democrats are dazed.

 

Asked this week who would lead the Democratic Party post-Biden, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre didn’t have a clue. Granted, that’s usually the case. But this time her nescience was justified. Democrats are rudderless. The race to be the next chairman of the Democratic National Committee attracts little attention for good reason. The outcome is irrelevant.

 

The opposition behaves as if the world began on November 5. During the campaign, Biden, Harris, and Obama said Trump was a fascist who would end democracy. Now Biden is cordial. Their teams collaborated on Gaza. Harris presided over the certification of the Electoral College. Obama and Trump chatted amiably at Jimmy Carter’s funeral.

 

The Democratic surrender is widespread. Senator John Fetterman (Pa.) visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago. Forty-eight House Democrats joined with Republicans to pass a bill making it easier to detain illegal immigrant felons. Thirty-one Senate Democrats joined with Republicans to advance a similar piece of legislation. AOC dropped her pronouns from her bio on X.

 

This week offered Democrats an opportunity to damage Trump’s cabinet appointments. They fumbled. Pete Hegseth emerged unscathed from his testy hearing for defense secretary. Afterward, Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa, a crucial vote on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said she would support him. The rule of thumb: Make it to your hearing, and you’re in. And if, like Matt Gaetz, you don’t make it that far, well, Trump shrugs. He picks someone else.

 

As Trump’s power has grown, his public demeanor has changed. He still uses social media to slam his opponents and critics, but his style in front of the cameras has shifted from 2017. Sued, indicted, convicted, and shot, he seems less easily rattled. He speaks more softly. His edgy humor contains fewer insults and more sarcasm. He seems to have a sense of purpose, and he trusts his lieutenants. He often displays the Buddha-like half-smirk, half-smile he had throughout the Republican National Convention in July.

 

When Trump first took office, he was the least experienced president in history. Eight years later, he may be the most seasoned. This isn’t the D.C. experience Biden brought to the White House. As Mark Halperin points out on Wide World of News, it’s four years on the job, with another four years off spent plotting the sequel.

 

We are in unexplored territory. The last nonconsecutive term came in 1893, when the presidency hardly mattered to most Americans. Trump returns less like a reelected second-term president than a recently elected first-term president.

 

He may be grateful for the mulligan. The record of second terms is not encouraging. They tend to be consumed by either scandal or hubris. Reagan faced Iran-Contra, and Clinton lied about Monica Lewinsky. Bush overreached on Social Security and immigration and became bogged down in Iraq. Obama made the nuclear deal with Iran and went left on immigration, race, terrorism, and same-sex marriage and transgender rights. 

 

Trump’s challenge isn’t winning power. It’s wielding it. If Trump wants to succeed and enable his successor to carry on his legacy into the 2030s, he will have to avoid the fate of his predecessors.

 

How? Don’t overreach. Use power wisely. Focus on numbers — market indexes, jobs, inflation, income, border crossings, crime rates. Throw America an unforgettable 250th birthday party in 2026 and help Los Angeles recover for the Olympics in 2028. These are the tests of a successful second term. Donald Trump has four years to pass them.