Is Israel Paying the Price for Trump’s ‘Hell to Pay’ Warning?

By Philip Klein

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

 

President-elect Trump has repeatedly warned that there would be “all hell to pay” if hostages were not returned from Gaza by the time he takes office. While he has never laid out exactly what the specific consequences for Hamas would be, there are some ominous signs that Israel is being pressured into paying a tremendous price.

 

This morning, the Associated Press is reporting that Hamas has agreed to a draft cease-fire and hostage-release agreement. It’s very likely that Trump’s threats, however vague, brought Hamas back to the table. Whether Trump was bluffing or not, it is reasonable for Hamas to assume that the group is better off accepting a deal in the waning days of the Biden administration than waiting to find out what Trump means. 

 

On the other hand, it’s becoming clear that the Trump team has worked with the Biden crew to pressure Israel into accepting a bad deal. The Times of Israel reports that “US President-elect Donald Trump’s Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff held a ‘tense’ meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday during which the former leaned hard on the Israeli premier to accept compromises necessary to secure a hostage deal by the January 20 US presidential inauguration.”

 

While details of the deal are still emerging, what has been reported suggests that it is similar to the three-phase framework laid out by President Biden last year that would culminate in an end to the war and the release of all hostages. In the first phase Israel will receive 33 hostages over the course of a 42-day cease-fire. In exchange, Israel would withdraw from major population centers and release many Palestinian terrorist prisoners. Specifically, for each of the five female Israeli soldiers held hostage that would be released in phase one, Israel would have to release 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 holding life sentences. Under the framework as it stands, Israel may ultimately have to release thousands of terrorists to get back the 94 remaining hostages (both living and dead). 

 

There is obviously more here than we know. It’s possible that with the pressure from the Trump team came reassurances that Israel would have more latitude to reenter Gaza as necessary to go after Hamas than it would have enjoyed under Biden. For what it’s worth, at his hearing this morning, defense secretary nominee Pete Hegseth said, “I support Israel destroying every last member of Hamas.” It’s also possible that there are bigger issues at stake (such as Trump’s being supportive of a possible Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities). Given Trump’s pro-Israel record in his first term and his appointees, he does deserve a certain degree of benefit of the doubt. 

 

That said, all appearances are that Israel has been forced into making more concessions because Trump was concerned that he’d be embarrassed if January 20 came around with no hostages released and he’d be forced to operationalize “hell to pay.” This is of concern, given that the deal is going to release some “bad hombres” and could ultimately see Hamas survive the war, with the ability to rebuild.