By Matthew Continetti
Saturday, June 22, 2024
I’ve always been partial to the theory that a
candidate or party that wins independent voters will win an election. And if
independents are key, then the Trump campaign may want to keep a close eye on
recent polling.
So far in the 2024 campaign, Donald Trump has enjoyed
consistent support from independents despite losing
their votes by 13 points in 2020. For example, the April New York Times/Siena poll had
Trump winning likely voters overall by one point and likely independent voters
by four points. The April Fox News poll of registered voters had Trump
winning registered voters overall by one point and independent voters by two
points.
The same pattern is visible in the states. The May Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of swing states had
Trump winning independents and sweeping every battleground except Michigan. And
the June Emerson poll of swing states has Trump winning
independents, and registered voters overall, in every swing state from Arizona
to Pennsylvania.
But the Emerson poll also found that independent support
for Trump has dropped. He’s below 45 percent among independents in Arizona,
Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That is enough to beat Biden, for now. It’s not
enough to put this election away.
Trump also lost support from independents in the June Fox News poll. In a wild swing, independents have
gone from favoring Trump by two points to favoring Biden by nine points, giving
the incumbent a two-point lead among voters nationwide.
These numbers suggest that Trump’s felony conviction in
New York City hurt his lead. Trump is still ahead in the swing states, where
the election will be decided, but in most cases his margins are tight. His
ability to win back support from independents will make the difference.
After all, the presidential candidate or political party
that won independent voters has won the White House or the House of
Representatives in seven of the past ten biannual elections.
The exceptions were in 2004, when John Kerry won
independents 50 percent to 48 percent but lost to George W. Bush, and
in 2012, when Mitt Romney won
independents 50 percent to 45 percent but lost to Barack Obama.
The national exit poll from 2022 helps explain why that
midterm election was a disappointing year for the GOP. The poll had
Democrats winning independents 49 percent to 47 percent while
losing control of the House. At the state level, independents rejected
Trump-selected candidates such as Kari Lake and Blake Masters in Arizona,
Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Herschel Walker in Georgia, and Tudor Dixon in
Michigan. And what looked like an approaching red wave barely arrived on shore.
Republicans want to avoid a repeat in 2024. They have
benefited from the public’s widespread and enduring disapproval of Biden.
Independent voters disapprove of Biden’s economic performance, his handling of
immigration, and his foreign policy. They share the larger public’s concerns
about Biden’s age and infirmity. If the election were decided by job
performance, policy prescriptions, and personal attributes, then Trump would
win handily.
What we’re seeing is that independent voters may be
having second thoughts about Trump’s character and personality. There are two
ways Trump can address their fears. He can focus on inflation, immigration, and
foreign policy during next week’s debate, and remind voters that they prefer
the Trump economy, border, and world scene to present conditions. And he can
choose a vice-presidential nominee who will reassure independent voters, not
frighten them.
There is a long running debate in the Beltway about how
elections are won. Is it better to mobilize your base, or should you persuade
the middle? Which cohort matters most: committed partisans or self-identified
independents?
Committed partisans receive most of the attention. The
United States is a deeply and narrowly divided country. Turning out
enthusiastic supporters is essential to victory. In 2004, a state
constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage in Ohio brought evangelical
Christian and other values voters to the polls, helping George W. Bush win the
state and a second term.
In 2012, African-American voters turned out in great
numbers to reelect the first black president. In 2016, Donald Trump’s
enthusiastic fanbase propelled a man with no government or military experience
to the Republican nomination and then to the White House. And in 2020 that same
fanbase organized boat parades and automobile and truck convoys that carried
Trump to the brink of a second term. In business, entertainment, media, and
politics, the superfan rules.
But he also needs help. The superfans were there for
Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Independents were not. The independents
backed Trump 46 percent to 42 percent when Hillary Clinton
was on the ballot, then swung hard against him and the GOP in 2018 and 2020,
and against MAGA diehards in 2022. To win in 2024, Trump must keep independents
convinced that Joe Biden is a failed president.
How? Stay on message. Stick to the economy and the
border. Be a party leader, not a factional leader. Keep the focus on Biden, and
Biden will lose.
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