By Noah Rothman
Wednesday, June 26, 2026
We’ve reached the point in the electoral calendar when
the “experts” join forces to provide Joe Biden with a dubious talking point timed for maximum political effect.
Last time around, the “experts” were some of the nation’s
most distinguished intelligence officials who assured the voting public that
Hunter Biden’s laptop was a fabrication cooked up as part of an unusually
sophisticated Russian disinformation operation. Today, the “experts” are
economists — indeed, Nobel Prize winners — all of whom insist that Donald Trump’s proposed
economic policies risk exacerbating inflation. That wouldn’t be such a galling
assertion if this brain trust hadn’t also assured Americans that Joe Biden’s
economic-policy preferences are entirely unimpeachable.
An open letter signed by 16 accomplished economists begins
with the authors confessing how “deeply concerned” they are by Trump’s economic
prescriptions and the “vagaries of his actions” on the world stage. In
particular, the letter’s signatories expressed their fear that Trump’s
“irresponsible budgets” will “reignite” inflation.
It’s unclear what “irresponsible budgets” the authors are
describing. If they’re referring to the statements of principle that presidents send to Congress
under the guise that they are budgetary proposals, these economic mavens need
not worry so much. Presidential budgets are political documents, not economic
blueprints, and Congress tends to regard them as such.
If, however, these economists were referring implicitly
to Trump’s reliance on tariffs as the answer to any and every economic
challenge, these economists would be on surer footing. Some forecasters have gamed out the effect of Trump’s sweeping
tariff proposals, and they anticipate that the higher cost of imports and the
prospect of Chinese retaliation would boost consumer prices.
But we shouldn’t take these experts any more seriously
than they take themselves. They are vague about the policies they oppose but
exceedingly specific about the policies they support: Joe Biden’s policies,
which are not only vital to the national interest but anti-inflationary.
“In his first four years as President, Joe Biden signed
into law major investments in the U.S. economy, including in infrastructure,
domestic manufacturing, and climate,” the letter continues. “Together, these
investments are likely to increase productivity and economic growth while
lowering long-term inflationary pressures and facilitating the clean energy
transition.”
So, let’s get this straight. Artificially increasing the
cost of imports — costs which will be passed on to individual consumers — is
inflationary, but dumping unprecedented sums of taxpayer dollars into the
private economy at a time when too much money was already chasing after too few
goods was not? This is the “expert” consensus?
The authors heap praise on Biden’s “pandemic stimulus,”
which a Federal Reserve study found boosted inflation by more than 2.5 percent. They have the unmitigated gall to allude to
the so-called “Inflation Reduction Act,” which was so named because the
political will to pass a massive green-energy spending binge at a time of high
inflation would not otherwise exist. They dare to insist the multiplier effects
of this government spending will eventually tame inflation even though their
colleagues elsewhere in the dismal science concluded (intuitively enough) that pumping money into an overheated economy will only contribute
to its febrility.
Joe Biden himself long ago admitted that the “Inflation Reduction Act”
had “less to do with inflation than it does providing alternatives to economic
growth.” He was right about that, but you can’t blame Biden’s allies for trying
to clean up after the president’s act of radical candor.
Actually, maybe you can. After all, these experts further
maintain that inflation shouldn’t even persist as a going concern for most
voters. They make note of voters’ apprehension with rising prices, but they
note that inflation “has come down remarkably fast.” Your definition of “down”
may conflict with theirs, which translates into English as “rising at a slower pace than in
previous years.”
These authors rely on their credentials and that of the
institutions they populate to do the heavy lifting to which a cogent argument
would otherwise contribute. That reckless, self-indulgent impulse is why
American institutions across the board are suffering from a credibility crisis. It would be one thing if these
“experts” issued a note of due caution about Trump’s questionable economic
instincts. It’s entirely another when that warning is used to launder into the
national conversation the intellectually bankrupt claim that excess public
spending at a time of high inflation does not, in fact, boost inflation.
The facts marshaled by these authors are easily disputed,
but the point of the letter is not to inform the public. It is to provide Biden
and his fellow Democrats with a superficially authoritative point of contention
just durable enough to get him through Election Day. Win or lose, the letter’s
signatories will likely conclude that this gambit was worth it. After all, no
matter what happens on November 5, they’ll retain their credentials, for
whatever they’re worth.
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