Sunday, August 31, 2025

A Decade After Merkel’s Refugee Gamble

By Justin Roy

Sunday, August 31, 2025

 

On August 31, 2015, Europe was on the verge of a refugee crisis unlike any seen since the end of World War II. Growing numbers of refugees were heading toward Northern Europe along the “Balkan route,” and there was no consensus on how to deal with the situation. It was into this void, and on this day, that German Chancellor Angela Merkel gave a speech that would help define her political career. Speaking to the German people, she uttered a phrase that was a call to action: “Wir haben so vieles geschafft — wir schaffen das.”

 

These words, which translate into English as “We have done so much — we can do this,” epitomized the chancellor’s hope that Germany, and possibly the European Union, could rise to the occasion and provide shelter to a growing number of asylum seekers. Within a matter of days, tens of thousands of refugees would begin arriving in Europe every day. This mass migration would disrupt the politics of the EU and would rapidly give Merkel’s words a life of their own on a rapidly polarizing continent.

 

The signs of political discord were there from the beginning. The chancellor’s speech came a couple of days after her visit to a refugee center in the city of Dresden. This visit was preceded by violent clashes in the state of Saxony as demonstrators and the police scuffled in the streets. She was heckled at the camp by locals: “Politicians, lowlifes,” they cried, and, “There’s money for everything, but not for your own people.” In her autobiography published years later, she claimed to have barely registered the deafening noise coming from protesters.

 

What occupied her mind, blotting out the noise, was the unfolding humanitarian crisis. The number of arrivals continued to grow, and amid the political unrest, she was struck by the humanity of the refugees she met in Dresden. Her thoughts deepened the next day, when 71 migrants were discovered dead in Austria after smugglers packed them into the cargo space of an airtight truck. In her autobiography, she would later write, “This message made it shockingly clear that we were not talking about numbers, but about real people and their fates.” Questions of policy and humanity circled in her mind. Was it not a right enshrined in the German constitution that victims of political persecution or civil war should be able to claim asylum? These events and thoughts were louder than the hecklers in Dresden and eventually led to her speech.

 

What followed was, at the time, the largest mass migration in Europe since the Second World War. The International Office for Migration recorded over 800,000 arrivals to Greece in 2015 alone. Of these new arrivals, the top three nationalities were Syrian, Afghan, and Iraqi. They crossed over into Greece from Turkey via the Aegean Sea. Landing on the Greek islands, they made their way to the mainland and traveled northward through the Balkans to Germany, Austria, Sweden, or Finland.

 

The situation on the ground was pandemonium. I was a humanitarian worker in Greece, and it was normal for the island where I served, home to only 50,000 residents, to receive more than a thousand migrants in a single day. The local authorities struggled to manage the situation in coordination with volunteers, EU officials, and the United Nations staff. Meanwhile, the European Union, riven by national interest and competing visions on immigration, was incapable of developing a coherent policy to address the crisis. Hungary closed its borders and threw up fences. Germany clashed with Eastern Europe and France over how to distribute the new arrivals. The Balkan nations allowed migrants to pass northward so long as Northern Europe wanted them. Each country was largely left to deal with the crisis on its own.

 

This mass migration would rapidly divide politics and society within Germany and the EU. Many embraced the spirit of Willkommenskultur, or welcoming culture, and from Greece to Scandinavia, citizens took extraordinary steps to try to help the new arrivals. However, as time went on, a growing number of people expressed concern and started to push back against the chancellor’s position. At first, the naysayers, even the unmalicious ones, were met with scorn. After visiting the refugee center in Dresden, Merkel told reporters, “We have no tolerance towards those who are not willing to help.”

 

But within a short time, the welcoming narrative shifted. The political chaos and seemingly unending wave of migrants became a political liability. The dam finally broke in March 2016 when the Balkan nations rapidly closed their borders. A few weeks later, the EU-Turkey Deal was announced. This agreement allowed for the return of migrants to Turkey and dramatically lowered the number of new arrivals. Europe’s leaders hoped that these efforts would stabilize the situation.

 

However, while the number of arrivals in Greece and the Balkans dropped sharply, the damage was already done. Tens of thousands of refugees were stranded in Balkan countries that lacked resources and often the political will to help them. Additionally, the refugee crisis triggered political upheaval across Germany and the EU. Merkel’s ruling coalition nearly collapsed after a political standoff with its Bavarian coalition partner over refugee policy. Additionally, it helped to feed the rise of Germany’s alt-right party Alternative für Deutschland and helped drive the growth of populist parties across Europe.

 

So, ten years later, was wir schaffen das true?

 

In one sense, yes. Europe has not collapsed despite the strain. Germany absorbed hundreds of thousands of refugees, and many built new lives. Acts of extraordinary generosity, from ordinary citizens to churches and nongovernmental organizations, proved that compassion was more than a slogan. Merkel’s instinct to show mercy was a justified reaction.

 

But in terms of managing the situation, the answer was no. The way the crisis unfolded was detrimental, for the EU and for the refugees themselves. By opening the borders and allowing uncontrolled migration, Merkel and others invited a humanitarian crisis they were unprepared for, and one rife with abuse and exploitation. Additionally, high-profile incidents, including terrorist attacks by migrants, became flashpoints in public debate. Broader difficulties in integration— such as language acquisition, access to housing, and finding stable employment — also fueled domestic tensions. These, in turn, contributed to a documented rise in anti-immigrant violence.

 

Merkel herself would later reflect: “Should I really not say that we can do this because those words could be misconstrued as implying that I want to bring all the world’s refugees to Germany? That thought would never have crossed my mind.” Yet many within Europe interpreted the ensuing chaos as exactly that, a blanket invitation. By the end of 2016, Merkel conceded that her administration had lost control during the peak of the crisis.

 

A decade on, migration remains a political fault line across Europe. The crisis fractured coalitions, fueled anti-immigrant populism, and was weaponized by hostile states. Camps in Greece are still overcrowded and squalid, as more migrants continue to arrive. Questions about European sovereignty, integration, and values remain unanswered.

 

The truth lies in that tension. Wir schaffen das was neither entirely true nor entirely false. Europe has endured the crisis thus far, but it has not yet resolved it. For those of us who stood on the shores, who saw human faces behind the headlines and broke bread with them, the question lingers not just in politics, but in humanity itself.

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