Will the U.S. Get Played by Iran?

By Abe Greenwald

Friday, April 11, 2025

 

Iran is in terrible shape. In October, precision strikes by Israel took out the regime’s air defenses. In December, Iran’s Syrian ally was toppled. Hezbollah, Iran’s strongest terror proxy, has been torn to shreds by a sequence of devastating Israeli operations. The Houthis, another Iranian proxy, is under heavy American fire. Iran-backed Hamas continues to pay for the attacks of October 7 with its very existence. Israeli intelligence has so fully penetrated Tehran that the Mossad probably has eyes and ears on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei round the clock. Donald Trump has issued new sanctions on Iranian oil, further weakening Iran’s sickly economy. The Rial has plunged, and water, electricity, and fuel shortages have become commonplace. Additionally, over the past few years, the Islamic Republic has been rocked by massive public protests.  

 

The mullahs couldn’t have seen this coming. During Joe Biden’s presidency, Iran had it good: The administration loosened sanctions and freed-up other funds to get Tehran to discuss a nuclear deal. But Biden gave Iran enough rope to hang itself. The regime, as it always has, put its increased revenues toward funding and arming regional terrorists. And when Hamas signed its own death warrant on October 7, 2023, it set off a chain of events that would bring Iran to its pitiful state.

 

The only thing that can help the regime now is diplomacy with the U.S. And that’s exactly what Trump is offering. If Trump’s other dealings with bad actors during this presidential term are any indication, the mullahs may get the American lifeline they need.

 

As U.S.-Iran negotiations near, we can discern the elements of a perfect storm of American impotence. The Islamic Republic has always used diplomacy to deceive, stall, and take. It doesn’t enter into talks in good faith or with an eye toward a binding deal. By the time the Obama administration got Tehran to agree to the JCPOA, the Iranians had made fools of then–Secretary of State John Kerry and the whole U.S. negotiating team. And the supposed deal was watered down until it was meaningless and unenforceable. There’s no reason to think the mullahs won’t approach the coming negotiations the same way.

 

Then there’s the American side. Donald Trump, too, loves stringing along negotiations, especially when they show every sign of being fruitless. If talks don’t end, they can’t fail. All it takes is for the belligerent side to offer a scrap of false hope, and Trump is hooked. Vladimir Putin hasn’t budged an inch for months. In fact, Russian aggression has only increased since the Trump administration offered its cease-fire proposal. Yet Trump continues to pretend he’s getting somewhere. To make matters worse, U.S. negotiations with Iran are going to be led by Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, who has sung the praises of every intransigent monster he’s met with since January.

 

There’s no question that Trump doesn’t want Iran to have a nuclear weapon. But there are other things he doesn’t want, and it’s hard to know what his priorities are. He doesn’t want to be seen to fail as the great dealmaker yet again. He also doesn’t want to launch direct military strikes on Iran.   

 

And Americans have already been thrown off balance by Trump’s sweeping moves. One problem with doing things like crashing global markets on a whim is that it erodes the public’s tolerance for large-scale or transformative initiatives. Those still waiting for their 401ks to recover just want to convalesce. They’re not eager for U.S. military strikes that could have short-term destabilizing effects. Trump is squandering a lot of power and American goodwill on reckless stunts.

 

Which is a tragedy. Because in a genuine crisis, a president needs to exercise power in a way that gives the American people confidence in his leadership. A potential Iranian nuclear weapon is precisely such a crisis. And now is the time to deliver a knock-out blow, not a leg up.