Tuesday, April 22, 2025

How the Military Campaign Against the Houthis Is Really Going

By Jim Geraghty

Tuesday, April 22, 2025

 

You may have noticed some abrupt personnel changes at the Pentagon; at least four staffers around Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have departed, with three top staffers fired amidst allegations of unauthorized leaks. Our Michael Brendan Dougherty puts the number at 15 fired staffers.

 

For what it’s worth, Hegseth himself affirmed that those staffers were fired for leaks, declaring at Monday’s White House Easter Egg Roll, “what a big surprise that a few leakers get fired, and suddenly a bunch of hit pieces come out from the same media that peddled the Russia hoax.”

 

In just 87 days in his position, Hegseth has dealt with the embarrassment of the Signal chat about the strike on the Houthis, other leaks of sensitive discussions to the New York Times, and now a report that the secretary “shared detailed information about forthcoming strikes in Yemen on March 15 in a private Signal group chat that included his wife, brother and personal lawyer,” including “the flight schedules for the F/A-18 Hornets targeting the Houthis in Yemen.” This Signal chat was reportedly started by Hegseth himself.

 

Don Bacon, a Republican representative who represents Omaha, Neb., is publicly expressing doubts that Hegseth is the right man to remain in the top job at the Pentagon:

 

“I had concerns from the get-go because Pete Hegseth didn’t have a lot of experience,” Bacon, a former Air Force general who now chairs of the subcommittee on cyber issues, said in an interview. “I like him on Fox. But does he have the experience to lead one of the largest organizations in the world? That’s a concern. . . .”

 

“If it’s true that he had another [Signal] chat with his family, about the missions against the Houthis, it’s totally unacceptable,” said Bacon, referring to the New York Times report that Hegseth shared sensitive information about military operations in Yemen in a private chat on the Signal app that included his wife, brother and personal lawyer. It’s the second report of administration officials using an unclassified messaging platform to share sensitive information.

 

“I’m not in the White House, and I’m not going to tell the White House how to manage this . . . but I find it unacceptable, and I wouldn’t tolerate it if I was in charge,” Bacon continued.

 

Meanwhile, Democratic Representative Jimmy Gomez is publicly doubting that Hegseth has quit drinking as he promised during his confirmation hearings:

 

“When Secretary Hegseth keeps making reckless mistakes with our national security — like leaking war plans in Signal chats or the chaos we’re seeing at the Pentagon — it’s fair to wonder if he actually stopped drinking like he promised during his confirmation,” Gomez told HuffPost in a statement. “People have legitimate concerns about whether his judgment is compromised.”

 

But now that he’s confirmed by the Senate, it doesn’t really matter if members of Congress have lost faith in Hegseth; he serves at the pleasure of the president, and so far, President Donald Trump apparently sees no reason to worry about Hegseth’s management. At the White House Easter Egg roll, President Trump said of Hegseth, “He is doing a great job.”

 

NPR offered a bombshell article yesterday, reporting, “The White House has begun the process of looking for a new leader at the Pentagon to replace Pete Hegseth,” attributing the news to “a U.S. official who was not authorized to speak publicly.” That could be just about anybody, not even necessarily a person appointed by Trump. On X, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called the NPR report “total FAKE NEWS based on one anonymous source who clearly has no idea what they are talking about.”

 

(This isn’t the first time unnamed sources have contended Hegseth’s position is insecure; back in early December, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump was considering Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as a possible replacement for Pete Hegseth.)

 

In his brief defense of Hegseth Monday, Trump quipped, “Ask the Houthis how he’s doing.”

 

It’s a good idea; we’ve been bombing the Houthis since the Ides of March, but the conflict has received seemingly minimal coverage in the busy U.S. news cycle.

 

The good news for the U.S. is that if you’re a known Houthi military site, you’ve probably been blown up in the past five weeks. The U.S. has launched hundreds of airstrikes, sometimes more than two dozen in a single day. One raid on the Ras Isa port inflicted more than $700 million in losses, according to one Yemeni analyst; that port “has two shipping lanes for ships, accommodates more than 50 tankers, and houses 34 tanks. These massive capabilities make Ras Isa Port in Hodeidah one of the most prominent Yemeni ports.”

 

But as the Associated Press reports, “Assessing the toll of the month-old U.S. airstrike campaign has been difficult because the military hasn’t released information about the attacks, including what was targeted and how many people were killed. The Houthis, meanwhile, strictly control access to attacked areas and don’t publish complete information on the strikes, many of which likely have targeted military and security sites.”

 

The head of the Houthi-run Supreme Political Council, Mahdi al-Mashat, is taking a defiant tone:

 

“If the American escalates further, it means his weapons have failed and he’s just offering more targets,” Mashat said in a televised speech Sunday evening, dressed in military attire following a top-level military meeting. “Trump may have thought it would be a leisurely affair, but he landed in a strategic quagmire called Yemen.”

 

It’s the odd sort of quagmire that doesn’t include any human casualties. No U.S. pilots shot down, no successful strikes on U.S. ships in the Red Sea or anywhere else. Previous conflicts like Vietnam, Somalia, and Iraq demonstrated that the American public will quickly turn against military operations if they see a lot of U.S. casualties. An April 4 Harvard-Harris survey found 71 percent of Americans support President Trump’s decision to strike the Houthis and restore maritime security. That includes 58 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of independents.

 

Sharp eyes will notice I specified human casualties above. The Houthis have been surprisingly good — or lucky — when it comes to shooting down U.S. drones: “The Houthis shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone on Friday, the sixth since March 3, US officials told CNN. Each MQ-9 costs about $30 million, the officials added, and the US only has a few more than 200 of the sophisticated drones in its arsenal.” (Considering the rapid pace of innovations in drone technology over in the Ukraine war, the U.S. military probably needs fewer big, expensive Reapers and more inexpensive, fast, smaller surveillance drones.)

 

You could argue that the U.S. effort against the Houthis is a de facto proxy war against Beijing and its interests. In an April 17 Financial Times report that got way less attention than it deserved, the Trump administration contended that Chinese companies — no doubt with the tacit support of the Chinese government — are helping the Houthis with their strikes:

 

Donald Trump’s administration has repeatedly warned Beijing that Chang Guang Satellite Technology, a commercial group with ties to the People’s Liberation Army, is providing the Houthis with the intelligence, according to the US officials.

 

“The United States has raised our concerns privately numerous times to the Chinese government on Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co Ltd’s role in supporting the Houthis in order to get Beijing to take action,” said a senior state department official.

 

The official added the Asian country had “ignored” the concerns. He also told the Financial Times that the company’s actions and “Beijing’s tacit support” despite Washington’s warnings were “yet another example of China’s empty claims to support peace.”

 

“We urge our partners to judge the Chinese Communist party and Chinese companies on their actions, not their empty words,” the official said.

 

Tammy Bruce, the state department’s spokesperson, confirmed CGSTL was “directly supporting Iran-backed Houthi terrorist attacks on US interests.” She added: “The US will not tolerate anyone providing support to foreign terrorist organizations such as the Houthis.”

 

For what it’s worth, the company denies the accusation.

 

You don’t have to look far to find pessimistic assessments of the ongoing conflict.

 

Writing in The Atlantic, Robert Worth concludes, “It is a war with no apparent strategy apart from Trump’s hunger for what he calls ‘swift and unrelenting action’ on almost every front. And it is likely to backfire badly if the administration doesn’t change course.” Even the right-of-center Washington Examiner concludes, “After nearly a month of ‘relentless’ bombing, Yemen’s Houthis are degraded, but undeterred.”

 

But in an April 10 interview, Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of Ansar Allah’s political bureau and a longtime spokesperson for the Houthis, made it sound like the Houthis were looking for a way to stop the U.S. bombing:

 

“We do not consider ourselves at war with the American people,” said Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of Ansar Allah’s political bureau and a longtime spokesperson for the Houthis. “If the U.S. stops targeting Yemen, we will cease our military operations against it. . . .”

 

While Trump and other senior U.S. officials have claimed they would cease attacks on Yemen if the Houthis stop firing on American ships — which is precisely what al-Bukhaiti told Drop Site the Houthis are prepared to do — it is unlikely they would make good on that pledge as long as Israel’s war against the Palestinians of Gaza continues.

 

Also note that the Houthis have instituted a strict, and apparently widely mocked — gag order on anyone discussing the consequences of the strikes:

 

The directive amounts to a sweeping gag order: citizens are forbidden from speaking about or posting the names of targeted regions and sites, with anyone doing so branded a “spy for the U.S. and Israel.” While the Houthis see the campaign as a smart move to prevent the publication of American operational successes, critics have turned it into an online joke, mocking the terror group’s demand through memes and satirical posts.

 

Participants in the counter-campaign say the Houthis’ policy is a blatant attempt to silence dissent and cover up the extent of the damage from U.S. strikes. They view the gag order as an implicit admission of the significant losses the militia is sustaining, as well as a sign of deep distrust in the local population.

 

Worth writes, “To take territory from the Houthis would require a ground offensive. Operation Rough Rider does not include one.”

 

But Yemen’s legitimate government might be getting ready to provide one. On April 13, the Jerusalem Post reported:

 

Yemen’s government is reportedly preparing to launch a massive assault to recapture Hodeidah Port in western Yemen from the Houthis, according to a Friday report in Emirati state media.

 

Yemen’s internationally recognized government is preparing to mass nearly 80,000 troops for what would be the largest offensive of the civil war, according to statements by Dr. Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Center based in Saudi Arabia, on Friday. . . .

 

80,000 soldiers would represent a majority of all non-Houthi forces in Yemen. This would constitute the largest offensive of the civil war and would also set the stage for an assault on the capital city Sana’a, which has been under Houthi control since 2014.

 

Of course, in the Middle East, rumors are about as common as sand. But according to the Institute for the Study of War:

 

“Saudi media reported on April 19 that the Houthis have placed landmines around Hudaydah City in preparation for a potential Yemeni Armed Forces ground offensive, citing unspecified government sources.” Whether or not the Yemeni government is preparing a new offensive, the Houthis are acting like they expect a new offensive.

 

Hudaydah City is the largest city on Yemen’s west coast, and the region of Hudaydah governate covers much of the western coastline facing the Red Sea. If the Houthis were driven out of that territory, the threat to shipping though the Red Sea would be greatly mitigated.

 

As the ISW concluded, “An air campaign can only achieve temporary effects. The temporal effects of this air campaign could be significant, however, and could deter the Houthis from continuing attacks if the United States renders the Houthis unwilling to continue. A campaign to permanently prevent the Houthis from using Hudaydah Governorate to launch attacks targeting international shipping would require a ground operation to take and hold ground.”

 

ADDENDUM: In case you missed it yesterday, in a scene so ridiculous it surpasses any attempt at satire, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, on his “Fighting Oligarchy” tour, spoke at the Coachella music festival in Indio, Calif. Tickets for Coachella start at $539, and VIP tickets go for $1,399. The event is held at the Empire Polo Club. Performers on stage included Lady Gaga, Green Day, and Megan Thee Stallion, all of whom are multimillionaires, among others. To rapturous applause, Sanders thundered about the need for “economic justice” to the spectacularly well-off crowd.

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