By Noah Rothman
Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Nobody knows what Donald Trump means when he promises to
unleash “hell” on Hamas if his demands are unmet. Trump himself may
not know, but we all may soon find out.
“Israel will resume ‘intense fighting’ in Gaza if Hamas
doesn’t release hostages by midday Saturday,” read a Times of Israel report.
The warning comes from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who echoed Donald
Trump’s Monday night remarks, in which the American president unilaterally
revised the terms of the cease-fire and demanded the return of all October
7 hostages by the end of the week.
As Phil observed, Trump’s more uncompromising stance alleviated the
“fear” that Trump envoy Steve Witkoff would pressure the president and his
Israeli counterpart into endorsing the cease-fire terms that Joe Biden’s
officials had established in May of last year. It’s not clear why this wasn’t
the administration’s approach from the start, though. Instead, at the outset of
the administration, Witkoff defended the terms that Biden’s team had ironed out
with Hamas’s proxies in Doha — the previous administration’s “math,” as he
repeatedly called it, which sought to exchange 1,904 Palestinian
prisoners for 33 hostages, some of whom are already dead. When it comes to
throwing America’s weight around, Trump has a better feel for it than the real
estate investor he tapped to navigate Middle Eastern politics.
If the Trump administration’s efforts to navigate the
still simmering conflict in Gaza are unpredictable, the Democratic Party’s
response to the cease-fire’s collapse is unlikely to be similarly inventive.
We can assume for the sake of our own sanity that Trump
will not order the U.S. military to intervene in the most intractable conflict
on earth. Presumably, Trump’s vision of “hell” consists of his allowing Israel
the license it needs to pursue its stated objective in the war Hamas started on
10/7: to oust Hamas from power and replace it with a more responsible civilian
authority.
If the fighting starts again, Democrats will surely be
tempted to blame Trump and Netanyahu rather than their own framework, which
functionally sanctioned Hamas’s custody over both Israeli and American citizens
until the “phase” at which they can be released. They will want to argue that
the Trump administration has taken the leash off America’s Israeli partners by
refusing to withhold ordnance and military equipment (really dangerous stuff,
like . . . earthmovers).
They might even succumb to their penchant for self-harm by deferring to the
anti-Israeli activists, who have spent the last 16 months making themselves as
unpopular as possible.
Old habits die hard, especially when they’re not replaced
with healthier behaviors. For all the soul-searching in which Democrats engaged
after the election, precious little focus has been devoted to the Biden-Harris
team’s snakebit deference to one of America’s least-loved activist causes. But if the shooting
recommences, the protests and all the menace that accompanies them are sure to
return as well. Democrats will have to ask themselves if they want to repeat
their mistakes or forge a new path.
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