By Noah Rothman
Friday, January 10, 2025
An interagency fight appears to be brewing within the
outgoing Biden administration over the origins of so-called “Havana Syndrome.”
In advance of an intelligence assessment slated for
release today, the Miami Herald revealed the details of a November 18
meeting in the White House Situation Room in which National Security Officials
confessed that the conclusions about the phenomenon U.S. intelligence officials
arrived at in 2023 “were no longer valid.” That assessment asserted that it was
“very unlikely” that the hundreds of U.S. governmental
personnel who exhibited symptoms associated with the affliction suffered as a
result of a clandestine operation conducted by a hostile foreign power. The
victims’ symptoms — which include nausea, headaches, memory loss, tinnitus, and
dizziness, often after “hearing a noise coming from a particular direction” —
were attributed to their individual preexisting medical and psychological
conditions.
“They said they believe us,” one of the sources who was
in the room at the time told the Herald, a “Havana Syndrome” sufferer.
The NSC’s functionaries are not alone. A December report published by the House
Intelligence subcommittee investigating the phenomenon also concluded that at
least some of the episodes of trauma experienced by America’s civil servants in
foreign posts were attributable to a “foreign power.” That report also included the stunning
allegation that intelligence officials “attempted to thwart the Subcommittee’s
investigative efforts to uncover the truth at every turn” and “withheld
valuable information” to leave investigators with a more “politically
palatable” conclusion about the nature of these episodes.
The Herald’s reporting substantiates the
subcommittee’s conclusions. It maintains that the report U.S. intelligence
agencies are preparing to release will still maintain that “Havana Syndrome” is
not the work of enemy action. But there is “a caveat,” the dispatch notes: “One
of the several intelligence agencies involved would dissent from the
conclusions, sources said. The sources believe that organization is the
National Security Agency.”
There seems to be a significant level of disagreement
among experts about the potential for directed energy weapons to be used to
incapacitate U.S. officials. One source who spoke with the Herald observed,
however, that an expert panel convened by the CIA and Director of National
Intelligence did conclude “that energy weapons built with readily available
technology were likely the culprit.”
We can be charitable and allow for the prospect of
genuine disagreement among intelligence officials about the nature of these
events and perhaps even low confidence in attributing them to America’s
adversaries abroad. But it seems beyond dispute now that elements within the
intelligence community are afraid of the conclusions that policymakers might
reach if they determine that these events constitute attacks on the United
States by a hostile foreign power. The intelligence community’s role is not to
set policy but to provide policymakers with accurate information. Anything less
is an abdication of their duty.
Moreover, the alleged coverup imbued America’s cynics
with undue confidence, leading them to dismiss what might constitute a serious
provocation.
“Some US politicians have seized on these reports to
construct conspiracy theories in which they imagine a mysterious
disease-causing ‘sound ray gun,’” the Guardian reported in 2018,
“something that isn’t possible with today’s technology” (an authoritative
conclusion that was in dispute even at the time it was published). “One could also argue
that there was no evidence of extraterrestrial involvement, but that doesn’t
prove space aliens weren’t targeting victims with a ray gun,” The Skeptic’s
Robert Bartholomew observed, citing a National
Institutes of Health study he co-authored that attributes the affliction to
“psychosomatic” responses. “It’s a conspiracy theory that is essentially
evidence-free at this point,” investigative reporter Michael
Isikoff declared, citing CIA director Bill Burns’s decision to rule out the prospect of hostile
foreign action (a conclusion that should have led to more skepticism in the CIA’s approach to the issue). “These are phantom
weapons involving phantom attacks.”
At the very least, there’s now ample reason to be
skeptical of the debunking campaign designed to cast doubt on the notion that
“Havana Syndrome” was real, much less a deliberate enterprise. It’s
unreasonable to expect that these latest developments will impose some humility
on the commentary class, but it should.
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